Intra-Group Competition and Inter-Group Conflict: An Application to Northern Ireland

This paper reviews four economic theories of leadership selection in conflictual settings. The first of these by Cukierman and Tomassi (1998) labeled the ‘information rationale’, argues that hawks may actually be necessary to initiate peace agreements. The second labeled the ‘bargaining rationale’ borrowing from Hamlin and Jennings (2007) agrees with the conventional wisdom that doves are more likely to secure peace, but post-conflict there are good reasons for hawks to be rationally selected. The third found in Jennings and Roelfsema (2008) is labeled the social psychological rationale. This captures the idea of a competition over which group can form the strongest identity, so can apply to group choices which do not impinge upon bargaining power. As in the bargaining rationale, dove selection can be predicted during conflict, but hawk selection post-conflict. Finally, the expressive rationale is discussed which predicts that regardless of the underlying structure of the game (informational, bargaining, psychological) the large group nature of decision-making by making individual decision makers non-decisive in determining the outcome of elections may cause them to make choices based primarily on emotions which may be invariant with the mode of group interaction, be it conflictual or peaceful. Finally, the paper analyses the extent to which the theories can throw light on Northern Ireland electoral history over the last 25 years.

An HEI-Disaggregated Input-Output Table for Northern-Ireland

This paper describes how the education sector of an Input-Output table for Northern Ireland is disaggregated to identify a separate sector for each of the four Northern Irish Higher Education Institutions (HEIs). The process draws on accounting and survey data to accurately determine the incomes and expenditures of each institution. In particular we emphasise determining the HEIs incomes source of origin to inform their treatment, as endogenous or exogenous, in subsequent analyses. The HEI-disaggregated Input-Output table provides a useful descriptive snapshot of the Northern Irish economy and the role of HEIs within it for a particular year, 2006. The table can be used to derive multipliers and conduct various impact studies of each institution or the sector as a whole. The table is furthermore useful to calibrate other multisectoral, HEI-disaggregated models of regional economies, including Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models.

“Policy Scepticism” and the Impact of Northern Irish Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) on their Host Region: Accounting for Regional Budget Constraints

This paper replicates the analysis of Scottish HEIs in Hermannsson et al (2010b) for the case of Northern Ireland. The motivation is to provide a self-contained analysis that is readily accessible by those whose primary concern is with the regional impacts of Northern Irish HEIs. A comparative analysis will follow in due course. A “policy scepticism” has emerged that challenges the results of conventional regional HEI impact analyses. This denial of the importance of the expenditure impacts of HEIs appears to be based on a belief in either a binding regional resource constraint or a regional public sector budget constraint. In this paper we provide a systematic critique of this policy scepticism. However, while rejecting the extreme form of policy scepticism, we argue that it is crucial to recognise the importance of the public sector expenditure constraints that are binding under devolution. We show how conventional impact analyses can be augmented to accommodate regional public sector budget constraints. While our results suggest that conventional impact studies overestimate the expenditure impacts of HEIs, they also demonstrate that the policy scepticism that treats these expenditure effects as irrelevant neglects some key aspects of HEIs, in particular their export intensity.

The Expenditure Impacts of Individual Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) and their Students on the Northern Irish Economy: Homogeneity or Heterogeneity?

This paper replicates the analysis of Scottish HEIs in Hermannsson et al (2010a) for the case of Northern Ireland in order to provide a self-contained analysis that is readily accessible by those whose primary concern is with the regional impacts of Northern-Irish HEIs. When we treat each of the four Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) that existed in Northern Ireland in 2006 as separate sectors in conventional input-output analysis, their expenditure impacts per unit of final demand appear rather homogenous, with the apparent heterogeneity of their overall impacts being primarily driven by scale. However, a disaggregation of their income by source reveals considerable variation in their dependence upon funding from the devolved Assembly and their ability to draw in income/funding from external sources. Acknowledging the binding budget constraint of the Northern Ireland Assembly and deriving balanced expenditure multipliers reveals large differences in the netexpenditure impact of HEIs upon the Northern Irish economy, with the source of variation being the origin of income. Applying a novel treatment of student expenditure impacts, identifying the amount of exogenous spending per student, modifies the heterogeneity of the overall expenditure impacts. On balance this suggests that the impacts of impending budget cut-backs will be quite different by institution depending on their sensitivity to public funding. However, predicting the outcome of budget cutbacks at the margin is problematic for reasons that we identify.

Model-based appraisal of minimum unit pricing for alcohol in Northern Ireland

In 2009, the Sheffield Alcohol Research Group (SARG) at Sheffield University developed the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model version 2.0 (SAPM) to appraise the potential impact of alcohol policies, including different levels of MUP, for the population of England. In 2013, SARG were commissioned by the DHSSPS and the Department for Social Development to adapt the Sheffield Model to NI in order to appraise the potential impact of a range of alcohol pricing policies. The present report represents the results of this work. Estimates from the Northern Ireland (NI) adaptation of the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model - version 3 - (SAPM3) suggest: 1. Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP) policies would be effective in reducing alcohol consumption, alcohol related harms (including alcohol-related deaths, hospitalisations, crimes and workplace absences) and the costs associated with those harms. 2. A ban on below-cost selling (implemented as a ban on selling alcohol for below the cost of duty plus the VAT payable on that duty) would have a negligible impact on alcohol consumption or related harms. 3. A ban on price-based promotions in the off-trade, either alone or in tandem with an MUP policy would be effective in reducing alcohol consumption, related harms and associated costs. 4. MUP and promotion ban policies would only have a small impact on moderate drinkers at all levels of income. Somewhat larger impacts would be experienced by increasing risk drinkers, with the most substantial effects being experienced by high risk drinkers. 5. MUP and promotion ban policies would have larger impacts on those in poverty, particularly high risk drinkers, than those not in poverty. However, those in poverty also experience larger relative gains in health and are estimated to marginally reduce their spending due to their reduced drinking under the majority of policies åÊ

University Research Proposal Submission Topics 2010

Dietetics Rectal Tumours and Pressure Relief Physio and Pilates with Gynae Cancer PatientsPhysio Nordic Walking and Breast CancerNeuro RehabRelaxation and Lung Cancer Physio for a Haematology Exercise Scheme - Cancer Related Fatigue Strategies Physio Classes and Prostate CancerRehab - Malignant Spinal Cord Compression and Rehab needs Seating.

Health Inequalities across Northern France and South East England

The aim of the project was to analyse available data from routine sources and local health surveys to compare health and health-related behaviour in the populations of South East England and North France focusing particularly on health inequalities and social cohesion. The project compared the availability and accessibility of health-related programmes in each country.

A Delphi study to identify research priorities for the therapy professions in Northern Ireland

A study by the University of Ulster, funded by Health and Social Care Research and Development Division of the Public Health Agency, enabled members of six Allied Health Professions (AHPs) to express opinions on research needs within their areas of expertise.The respondents to 'A Delphi Study to Identify Research Priorities for the Therapy Professions in Northern Ireland', were selected from professionals based in clinical and academic settings in the areas of physiotherapy, occupational therapy, speech and language therapy, podiatry, nutrition and dietetics and orthoptics. The views of a group of key stakeholders in health and social care and a separate panel of service users were also gathered. A copy of this report, and an Executive Summary,�can be downloaded below.

Stochastic Dynamic Northern Corn Rootworm Population Model, January 2000

A complete life cycle model for northern corn rootworm, Diabrotica barberi Smith and Lawrence, is developed using a published single-season model of adult population dynamics and data from field experiments. Temperature-dependent development and age-dependent advancement determine adult population dynamics and oviposition, while a simple stochastic hatch and density-dependent larval survival model determine adult emergence. Dispersal is not modeled. To evaluate the long-run performance of the model, stochastically generated daily air and soil temperatures are used for 100-year simulations for a variety of corn planting and flowering dates in Ithaca, NY, and Brookings, SD. Once the model is corrected for a bias in oviposition, model predictions for both locations are consistent with anecdotal field data. Extinctions still occur, but these may be consistent with northern corn rootworm metapopulation dynamics.

Issue review : university faculty work activities.

An examination of faculty work activities at the University of Iowa, UofI, Iowa State University, ISU, and University of Northern Iowa, UNI.

Growth variability of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) along a West-East gradient across northern Fennoscandia: a dendroclimatic approach

We performed a spatiotemporal analysis of a network of 21 Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) ring-width chronologies in northern Fennoscandia by means of chronology statistics and multivariate analyses. Chronologies are located on both sides (western and eastern) of the Scandes Mountains (67°N-70°N, 15°E-29°E). Growth relationships with temperature, precipitation, and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices were calculated for the period 1880-1991. We also assessed their temporal stability. Current July temperature and, to a lesser degree, May precipitation are the main growth limiting factors in the whole area of study. However, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and mean interseries correlation revealed differences in radial growth between both sides of the Scandes Mountains, attributed to the Oceanic-Continental climatic gradient in the area. The gradient signal is temporally variable and has strengthened during the second half of the 20th century. Northern Fennoscandia Scots pine growth is positively related to early winter NAO indices previous to the growth season and to late spring NAO. NAO/growth relationships are unstable and have dropped in the second half of the 20th century. Moreover, they are noncontinuous through the range of NAO values: for early winter, only positive NAO indices enhance tree growth in the next growing season, while negative NAO does not. For spring, only negative NAO is correlated with radial growth.

Macroalgae across environmental gradients : tools for managing rocky coastal areas of the northern Baltic Sea

Macroalgae are the main primary producers of the temperate rocky shores providing a three-dimensional habitat, food and nursery grounds for many other species. During the past decades, the state of the coastal waters has deteriorated due to increasing human pressures, resulting in dramatic changes in coastal ecosystems, including macroalgal communities. To reverse the deterioration of the European seas, the EU has adopted the Water Framework Directive (WFD) and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD), aiming at improved status of the coastal waters and the marine environment. Further, the Habitats Directive (HD) calls for the protection of important habitats and species (many of which are marine) and the Maritime Spatial Planning Directive for sustainability in the use of resources and human activities at sea and by the coasts. To efficiently protect important marine habitats and communities, we need knowledge on their spatial distribution. Ecological knowledge is also needed to assess the status of the marine areas by involving biological indicators, as required by the WFD and the MSFD; knowledge on how biota changes with human-induced pressures is essential, but to reliably assess change, we need also to know how biotic communities vary over natural environmental gradients. This is especially important in sea areas such as the Baltic Sea, where the natural environmental gradients create substantial differences in biota between areas. In this thesis, I studied the variation occurring in macroalgal communities across the environmental gradients of the northern Baltic Sea, including eutrophication induced changes. The aim was to produce knowledge to support the reliable use of macroalgae as indicators of ecological status of the marine areas and to test practical metrics that could potentially be used in status assessments. Further, the aim was to develop a methodology for mapping the HD Annex I habitat reefs, using the best available data on geology and bathymetry. The results showed that the large-scale variation in the macroalgal community composition of the northern Baltic Sea is largely driven by salinity and exposure. Exposure is important also on smaller spatial scales, affecting species occurrence, community structure and depth penetration of algae. Consequently, the natural variability complicates the use of macroalgae as indicators of human-induced changes. Of the studied indicators, the number of perennial algal species, the perennial cover, the fraction of annual algae, and the lower limit of occurrence of red and brown perennial algae showed potential as usable indicators of ecological status. However, the cumulated cover of algae, commonly used as an indicator in the fully marine environments, showed low responses to eutrophication in the area. Although the mere occurrence of perennial algae did not show clear indicator potential, a distinct discrepancy in the occurrence of bladderwrack, Fucus vesiculosus, was found between two areas with differing eutrophication history, the Bothnian Sea and the Archipelago Sea. The absence of Fucus from many potential sites in the outer Archipelago Sea is likely due to its inability to recover from its disappearance from the area 30-40 years ago, highlighting the importance of past events in macroalgal occurrence. The methodology presented for mapping the potential distribution and the ecological value of reefs showed, that relatively high accuracy in mapping can be achieved by combining existing available data, and the maps produced serve as valuable background information for more detailed surveys. Taken together, the results of the theses contribute significantly to the knowledge on macroalgal communities of the northern Baltic Sea that can be directly applied in various management contexts.