Calculate excess mortality during heatwaves using Hilbert-Huang transform algorithm

Background Heatwaves could cause the population excess death numbers to be ranged from tens to thousands within a couple of weeks in a local area. An excess mortality due to a special event (e.g., a heatwave or an epidemic outbreak) is estimated by subtracting the mortality figure under ‘normal’ conditions from the historical daily mortality records. The calculation of the excess mortality is a scientific challenge because of the stochastic temporal pattern of the daily mortality data which is characterised by (a) the long-term changing mean levels (i.e., non-stationarity); (b) the non-linear temperature-mortality association. The Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) algorithm is a novel method originally developed for analysing the non-linear and non-stationary time series data in the field of signal processing, however, it has not been applied in public health research. This paper aimed to demonstrate the applicability and strength of the HHT algorithm in analysing health data. Methods Special R functions were developed to implement the HHT algorithm to decompose the daily mortality time series into trend and non-trend components in terms of the underlying physical mechanism. The excess mortality is calculated directly from the resulting non-trend component series. Results The Brisbane (Queensland, Australia) and the Chicago (United States) daily mortality time series data were utilized for calculating the excess mortality associated with heatwaves. The HHT algorithm estimated 62 excess deaths related to the February 2004 Brisbane heatwave. To calculate the excess mortality associated with the July 1995 Chicago heatwave, the HHT algorithm needed to handle the mode mixing issue. The HHT algorithm estimated 510 excess deaths for the 1995 Chicago heatwave event. To exemplify potential applications, the HHT decomposition results were used as the input data for a subsequent regression analysis, using the Brisbane data, to investigate the association between excess mortality and different risk factors. Conclusions The HHT algorithm is a novel and powerful analytical tool in time series data analysis. It has a real potential to have a wide range of applications in public health research because of its ability to decompose a nonlinear and non-stationary time series into trend and non-trend components consistently and efficiently.

Reduction of amplitude equations by the renormalization group approach

This article elucidates and analyzes the fundamental underlying structure of the renormalization group (RG) approach as it applies to the solution of any differential equation involving multiple scales. The amplitude equation derived through the elimination of secular terms arising from a naive perturbation expansion of the solution to these equations by the RG approach is reduced to an algebraic equation which is expressed in terms of the Thiele semi-invariants or cumulants of the eliminant sequence { Zi } i=1 . Its use is illustrated through the solution of both linear and nonlinear perturbation problems and certain results from the literature are recovered as special cases. The fundamental structure that emerges from the application of the RG approach is not the amplitude equation but the aforementioned algebraic equation. © 2008 The American Physical Society.

Secular series and renormalization group for amplitude equations

We have developed a technique that circumvents the process of elimination of secular terms and reproduces the uniformly valid approximations, amplitude equations, and first integrals. The technique is based on a rearrangement of secular terms and their grouping into the secular series that multiplies the constants of the asymptotic expansion. We illustrate the technique by deriving amplitude equations for standard nonlinear oscillator and boundary-layer problems. © 2008 The American Physical Society.

Generalized azimuthal shear deformations in compressible isotropic elastic materials

In this article we study the azimuthal shear deformations in a compressible Isotropic elastic material. This class of deformations involves an azimuthal displacement as a function of the radial and axial coordinates. The equilibrium equations are formulated in terms of the Cauchy-Green strain tensors, which form an overdetermined system of partial differential equations for which solutions do not exist in general. By means of a Legendre transformation, necessary and sufficient conditions for the material to support this deformation are obtained explicitly, in the sense that every solution to the azimuthal equilibrium equation will satisfy the remaining two equations. Additionally, we show how these conditions are sufficient to support all currently known deformations that locally reduce to simple shear. These conditions are then expressed both in terms of the invariants of the Cauchy-Green strain and stretch tensors. Several classes of strain energy functions for which this deformation can be supported are studied. For certain boundary conditions, exact solutions to the equilibrium equations are obtained. © 2005 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.

Some solutions for a compressible isotropic elastic material

In this article we obtain closed-form solutions for the combined inflation and axial shear of an elastic tube in respect of the compressible Isotropic elastic material introduced by Levinson and Burgess. Several other boundary-value problems are also examined, including the bending of a rectangular block and straightening of a cylindrical sector, both coupled with stretching and shearing, and an axially varying twist deformation. Some of the solutions appear in closed form, others are expressible in terms of elliptic functions.

Demonstration of nonlinear absorption in Au semi-continuous film by electrical measurement

We have demonstrated the nonlinear absorption at 532 nm wavelength in an Au semi-continuous film (SF) resulting from smearing of the Fermi distribution and diffusion of conduction electrons into the substrate. The Au SF was irradiated by a pulsed laser with 8 ns pulse width at 532 nm in near resonance with the interband transition of the Au. We determined the temperature increase in the SF for different intensities by electrical measurement. We calculated the temperature increase by using a 1D heat transport equation; comparing the results of the calculation with measured values for the temperature increase, revealed the nonlinear absorption in the Au SF. We employed this deviation from linear behaviour to determine the nonlinear absorption coefficient.

Nonlinear ion-acoustic surface waves on a dusty plasma

A nonlinear theory for ion-acoustic surface waves propagating at the interface between a dusty plasma and a dielectric is presented. The nonlinear effects are associated with density modulations caused by surface-wave induced anomalous ionization. The negative charge of the massive dust grains is assumed to be constant. It is shown that the effect of the ionization nonlinearity arising from the ion-acoustic surface waves can result in the formation of surface envelope solitons. The wave phase shifts and the widths of the solitons are estimated for typical gas discharge plasmas.

Nonlinear effects of ionization on surface waves on a plasma-metal interface

Nonlinear effects associated with density modulation caused by wave-induced ionization in magnetized plasmas were studied. The ionizing surface waves propagate at the interface between the plasma and a metallic surface. It is shown that the ionization nonlinearity can be important for typical experimental conditions.

Nonlinear geometric and material computational technique : higher-order element with refined plastic hinge approach

This paper addresses of the advanced computational technique of steel structures for both simulation capacities simultaneously; specifically, they are the higher-order element formulation with element load effect (geometric nonlinearities) as well as the refined plastic hinge method (material nonlinearities). This advanced computational technique can capture the real behaviour of a whole second-order inelastic structure, which in turn ensures the structural safety and adequacy of the structure. Therefore, the emphasis of this paper is to advocate that the advanced computational technique can replace the traditional empirical design approach. In the meantime, the practitioner should be educated how to make use of the advanced computational technique on the second-order inelastic design of a structure, as this approach is the future structural engineering design. It means the future engineer should understand the computational technique clearly; realize the behaviour of a structure with respect to the numerical analysis thoroughly; justify the numerical result correctly; especially the fool-proof ultimate finite element is yet to come, of which is competent in modelling behaviour, user-friendly in numerical modelling and versatile for all structural forms and various materials. Hence the high-quality engineer is required, who can confidently manipulate the advanced computational technique for the design of a complex structure but not vice versa.

Nonlinear surface magnetoplasmons at the electron semiconductor-metal interface

The nonlinear self-interaction of the potential surface magnetoplasmons, propagating across the external magnetic field at the n-type semiconductor-metal interface is described in this manuscript. The studied nonlinearity is due to the free carriers dispersion law nonparabolicity and we show that it acts differently in semiconductor materials with normal and inverse band structures. The results of the nonlinear evolution of the surface magnetoplasmons are presented as well.

Series in vector spherical harmonics : an efficient tool for solution of nonlinear problems in spherical plasmas

The series expansion of the plasma fields and currents in vector spherical harmonics has been demonstrated to be an efficient technique for solution of nonlinear problems in spherically bounded plasmas. Using this technique, it is possible to describe the nonlinear plasma response to the rotating high-frequency magnetic field applied to the magnetically confined plasma sphere. The effect of the external magnetic field on the current drive and field configuration is studied. The results obtained are important for continuous current drive experiments in compact toruses. © 2000 American Institute of Physics.

Nonlinear interactions of azimuthal surface waves in magnetoactive plasma filled waveguides

This paper deals with the theoretical studies of nonlinear interactions of azimuthal surface waves (ASW) in cylindrical metal waveguides fully filled by a uniform magnetoactive plasma. These surface-type wave perturbations propagate in azimuthal direction across an external magnetic field, which is directed along the waveguide axis. The ASW is a relatively new kind of surface waves and so far the nonlinear effects associated with their propagation are outside the scope of scientific issues. They are characterized by a discrete set of mode numbers values which define the ASW eigenfrequencies. This fact leads to several peculiarities of ASW compared with ordinary surface-type waves.

Nonlinear secret sharing immune against cheating

The paper investigates the design of secret sharing that is immune against cheating (as defined by the Tompa-Woll attack). We examine secret sharing with binary shares and secrets. Bounds on the probability of successful cheating are given for two cases. The first case relates to secret sharing based on bent functions and results in a non-perfect scheme. The second case considers perfect secret sharing built on highly nonlinear balanced Boolean functions.

Temperature variability and childhood pneumonia : an ecological study

Background Few data on the relationship between temperature variability and childhood pneumonia are available. This study attempted to fill this knowledge gap. Methods A quasi-Poisson generalized linear regression model combined with a distributed lag nonlinear model was used to quantify the impacts of diurnal temperature range (DTR) and temperature change between two neighbouring days (TCN) on emergency department visits (EDVs) for childhood pneumonia in Brisbane, from 2001 to 2010, after controlling for possible confounders. Results An adverse impact of TCN on EDVs for childhood pneumonia was observed, and the magnitude of this impact increased from the first five years (2001–2005) to the second five years (2006–2010). Children aged 5–14 years, female children and Indigenous children were particularly vulnerable to TCN impact. However, there was no significant association between DTR and EDVs for childhood pneumonia. Conclusions As climate change progresses, the days with unstable weather pattern are likely to increase. Parents and caregivers of children should be aware of the high risk of pneumonia posed by big TCN and take precautionary measures to protect children, especially those with a history of respiratory diseases, from climate impacts.

Nonlinear Model Predictive Control for a multi-rotor with heavy slung load

In this paper a novel controller for stable and precise operation of multi-rotors with heavy slung loads is introduced. First, simplified equations of motions for the multi-rotor and slung load are derived. The model is then used to design a Nonlinear Model Predictive Controller (NMPC) that can manage the highly nonlinear dynamics whilst accounting for system constraints. The controller is shown to simultaneously track specified waypoints whilst actively damping large slung load oscillations. A Linear-quadratic regulator (LQR) controller is also derived, and control performance is compared in simulation. Results show the improved performance of the Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (NMPC) controller over a larger flight envelope, including aggressive maneuvers and large slung load displacements. Computational cost remains relatively small, amenable to practical implementation. Such systems for small Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) may provide significant benefit to several applications in agriculture, law enforcement and construction.