753 resultados para Nick Bostrom


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We present initial results from observations and numerical analyses aimed at characterizing the main-belt comet P/2012 T1 (PANSTARRS). Optical monitoring observations were made between 2012 October and 2013 February using the University of Hawaii 2.2 m telescope, the Keck I telescope, the Baade and Clay Magellan telescopes, Faulkes Telescope South, the Perkins Telescope at Lowell Observatory, and the Southern Astrophysical Research Telescope. The object's intrinsic brightness approximately doubles from the time of its discovery in early October until mid-November and then decreases by ~60% between late December and early February, similar to photometric behavior exhibited by several other main-belt comets and unlike that exhibited by disrupted asteroid (596) Scheila. We also used Keck to conduct spectroscopic searches for CN emission as well as absorption at 0.7 μm that could indicate the presence of hydrated minerals, finding an upper limit CN production rate of Q CN <1.5 × 1023 mol s-1, from which we infer a water production rate of Q_H_2O100 Myr and is unlikely to be a recently implanted interloper from the outer solar system, while a search for potential asteroid family associations reveals that it is dynamically linked to the ~155 Myr old Lixiaohua asteroid family. Some of the data presented herein were obtained at the W. M. Keck Observatory, which is operated as a scientific partnership among the California Institute of Technology, the University of California, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and made possible by the generous financial support of the W. M. Keck Foundation, the Magellan Telescopes located at Las Campanas Observatory, Chile, and the Southern Astrophysical Research (SOAR) telescope, which is a joint project of the Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia, e Inovação (MCTI) da República Federativa do Brasil, the U.S. National Optical Astronomy Observatory (NOAO), the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (UNC), and Michigan State University (MSU).

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Genuine Savings (GS), also known as ‘net adjusted savings’, is a composite indicator of the sustainability of economic development. Genuine Savings reflects year-on-year changes in the total wealth or capital of a country, including net investment in produced capita, investment in human capital, depletion of natural resources, and damage caused by pollution. A negative Genuine Savings rate suggests that the stock of national wealth is declining and that future utility must be less than current utility, indicating that economic development is non-sustainable (Hamilton and Clemens, 1999). We make use of data over a 150 year period to examine the relationship between Genuine Savings and a number of indicators of well-being over time, and compare the relative changes in human, produced, and components of natural capital over the period. Overall, we find that the magnitude of genuine savings is positively related to changes in future consumption, with some evidence of a cointegrating relationship. However, the relationships between genuine savings and infant mortality or average heights are less clear.

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Genuine Savings has emerged as a widely-used indicator of sustainable development. In this paper, we use long-term data stretching back to 1870 to undertake empirical tests of the relationship between Genuine Savings (GS) and future well-being for three countries: Britain, the USA and Germany. Our tests are based on an underlying theoretical relationship between GS and changes in the present value of future consumption. Based on both single country and panel results, we find evidence supporting the existence of a cointegrating (long run equilibrium) relationship between GS and future well-being, and fail to reject the basic theoretical result on the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables. This provides some support for the GS measure of weak sustainability. We also show the effects of modelling shocks, such as World War Two and the Great Depression.

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This chapter features a discussion of the economy and mobilization for the First World War. The authors analyse the implications and cost of total war, concluding with an examination of its contradictory legacies. In studying the war’s impact on Germany in particular, the chapter provides an in-depth look at the consequences of war on Europe’s strongest pre-war economy, without the complications of separating out the issues of a developing country, which can mimic those faced in wartime. The economic challenges that warring parties faced during the war included mobilization, warfare, labour shortage, impaired domestic economic activity, restricted international trade, a systematic redistribution of resources towards the war economy, food rationing, the predictable emergence of black markets, and a drop in living standards. The authors also discuss strategies to meet the significant financial demands associated with the war, and its tumultuous economic and political aftermath.

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Biodiversity continues to decline in the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures such as habitat destruction, exploitation, pollution and introduction of alien species. Existing global databases of species' threat status or population time series are dominated by charismatic species. The collation of datasets with broad taxonomic and biogeographic extents, and that support computation of a range of biodiversity indicators, is necessary to enable better understanding of historical declines and to project - and avert - future declines. We describe and assess a new database of more than 1.6 million samples from 78 countries representing over 28,000 species, collated from existing spatial comparisons of local-scale biodiversity exposed to different intensities and types of anthropogenic pressures, from terrestrial sites around the world. The database contains measurements taken in 208 (of 814) ecoregions, 13 (of 14) biomes, 25 (of 35) biodiversity hotspots and 16 (of 17) megadiverse countries. The database contains more than 1% of the total number of all species described, and more than 1% of the described species within many taxonomic groups - including flowering plants, gymnosperms, birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, beetles, lepidopterans and hymenopterans. The dataset, which is still being added to, is therefore already considerably larger and more representative than those used by previous quantitative models of biodiversity trends and responses. The database is being assembled as part of the PREDICTS project (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems - http://www.predicts.org.uk). We make site-level summary data available alongside this article. The full database will be publicly available in 2015.

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commissioned by Cwmni Dawns Gwylan with funds from the Welsh Arts Council, for Chapter Arts Centre, Cardiff. Choreographer Lucy Fawcett. (Nick Parkin, percussion)

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We present an observational and dynamical study of newly discovered main-belt comet 313P/Gibbs. We find that the object is clearly active both in observations obtained in 2014 and in precovery observations obtained in 2003 by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, strongly suggestingthat its activity is sublimation-driven. This conclusion is supported by a photometric analysis showing an increase in the total brightness of the comet over the 2014 observing period, and dust modeling resultsshowing that the dust emission persists over at least three months during both active periods, where we find start dates for emission nolater than 2003 July 24 ± 10 for the 2003 active period and 2014 July 28 ± 10 for the 2014 active period. From serendipitous observations by the Subaru Telescope in 2004 when the object was apparently inactive, we estimate that the nucleus has an absolute R-band magnitude of HR = 17.1 ± 0.3, corresponding to aneffective nucleus radius of re ∼ 1.00 ± 0.15 km.The object’s faintness at that time means we cannot rule out the presence of activity, and so this computed radius should be consideredan upper limit. We find that 313P’s orbit is intrinsically chaotic, having a Lyapunov time of Tl = 12,000 yr and beinglocated near two three-body mean-motion resonances with Jupiter andSaturn, 11J-1S-5A and 10J+12S-7A, yet appears stable over >50 Myr in an apparent example of stable chaos. We furthermore find that 313P is the second main-belt comet, after P/2012 T1 (PANSTARRS), to belong tothe ∼155 Myr old Lixiaohua asteroid family.

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While mental health services are increasingly encouraged to engage in family-focused practice, it is a nebulous and poorly understood term. The aim of this paper was to examine and synthesize evidence on the concept and scope of family-focused practice in adult and child and youth mental health care settings. An integrative literature review method was used. Medline, Embase, CINAHL, PsycInfo and Proquest electronic databases were systematically searched forabstracts published in English between 1994-2014. Data were extracted and constant comparative analysis conducted with 40 included articles. Family-focused practice was conceptualised variously depending on who was included in the „family‟, whether the focus was family of origin or family of procreation, and the context of practice. As a finding of the review, six core and inter-related family-focused practices were identified: family care planning andgoal-setting; liaison between families and services; instrumental, emotional and social support; assessment; psychoeducation; and a coordinated system of care between families and services. While family is a troubled concept, „family‟ as defined by its members forms a basis for practice that is oriented to providing a „whole of family‟ approach to care. In order to strengthen familymembers‟ wellbeing and improve their individual and collective outcomes, key principles and practices of family-focused practice are recommended for clinicians and policy makers across mental health settings.

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Contested understandings about the past continue to reify the divided character of post-Troubles Northern Ireland. In particular, the unresolved legacies of the extension of English control over Ireland in the late sixteenth and early seventeenth centuries through warfare and plantation continue to structure daily lives in the province. Yet the archaeological record of this period complicates the accepted dichotomous narratives through highlighting complexity. These nuances, however, have been lost in recent decades as an overly simplistic model of colonizer versus colonized has emerged as the dominant political paradigm. The management and presentation of sites associated with the process of plantation can arguably create the space necessary to bridge the divide, and to challenge accepted understandings. Cross-community engagement in the process of archaeological discovery and interpretation on plantation-period sites in Northern Ireland highlights the critical role archaeology can play in peace and reconciliation in post-conflict societies.

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Background: Cigarette smoke induces a pro-inflammatory response in airway epithelial cells but it is not clear which of the various chemicals contained within cigarette smoke (CS) should be regarded as predominantly responsible for these effects. We hypothesised that acrolein, nicotine and acetylaldehyde, important chemicals contained within volatile cigarette smoke in terms of inducing inflammation and causing addiction, have immunomodulatory effects in primary nasal epithelial cell cultures (PNECs).

Methods: PNECs from 19 healthy subjects were grown in submerged cultures and were incubated with acrolein, nicotine or acetylaldehyde prior to stimulation with Pseudomonas aeruginosa lipopolysaccharide (PA LPS). Experiments were repeated using cigarette smoke extract (CSE) for comparison. IL-8 was measured by ELISA, activation of NF-κB by ELISA and Western blotting, and caspase-3 activity by Western blotting. Apoptosis was evaluated using Annexin-V staining and the terminal transferase-mediated dUTP nick end-labeling (TUNEL) method.

Results: CSE was pro-inflammatory after a 24 h exposure and 42% of cells were apoptotic or necrotic after this exposure time. Acrolein was pro-inflammatory for the PNEC cultures (30 μM exposure for 4 h inducing a 2.0 fold increase in IL-8 release) and also increased IL-8 release after stimulation with PA LPS. In contrast, nicotine had anti-inflammatory properties (0.6 fold IL-8 release after 50 μM exposure to nicotine for 24 h), and acetylaldehyde was without effect. Acrolein and nicotine had cellular stimulatory and anti-inflammatory effects respectively, as determined by NF-κB activation. Both chemicals increased levels of cleaved caspase 3 and induced cell death.

Conclusions: Acrolein is pro-inflammatory and nicotine anti-inflammatory in PNEC cultures. CSE induces cell death predominantly by apoptotic mechanisms. 

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There is a long history of recognizing a continuum in social signals of positive affect, with the continuum ranging from mild amusement signals to strong laughter. However there has been little systematic effort to assess what this continuum might mean. We present data that shows that incorporating intensity measures of laughter into laughter research is an important component and that there is a strong relationship between laughter intensity and humour. This may be intuitively obvious but the strength of the relationship suggests that intensity measures should be included in all laughter research.

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Genuine Savings has emerged as a widely used indicator of sustainable development. In this paper, we use long -term data stretching back to 1870 to undertake empirical tests of the relationship between Genuine Savings (GS) and future well-being for three countries: Britain, the USA and Germany. Our tests are based on an underlying theoretical relationship between GS and changes in the present value of future consumption. Based on both single country and panel results, we find evidence supporting the existence of javascript:void(0);a cointegrating (long run equilibrium) relationship between GS and future well-being, and fail to reject the basic theoretical result on the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables. This provides some support for the GS measure of weak sustainability.