Distinct population structure for co-occurring Anopheles goeldii and Anopheles triannulatus in Amazonian Brazil

To evaluate whether environmental heterogeneity contributes to the genetic heterogeneity in Anopheles triannulatus, larval habitat characteristics across the Brazilian states of Roraima and Pará and genetic sequences were examined. A comparison with Anopheles goeldii was utilised to determine whether high genetic diversity was unique to An. triannulatus. Student t test and analysis of variance found no differences in habitat characteristics between the species. Analysis of population structure of An. triannulatus and An. goeldii revealed distinct demographic histories in a largely overlapping geographic range. Cytochrome oxidase I sequence parsimony networks found geographic clustering for both species; however nuclear marker networks depicted An. triannulatus with a more complex history of fragmentation, secondary contact and recent divergence. Evidence of Pleistocene expansions suggests both species are more likely to be genetically structured by geographic and ecological barriers than demography. We hypothesise that niche partitioning is a driving force for diversity, particularly in An. triannulatus.

Predicting the geographic distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae) and visceral leishmaniasis in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

To understand the geographic distribution of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), Brazil, both the climatic niches of Lutzomyia longipalpis and VL cases were analysed. Distributional data were obtained from 55 of the 79 counties of MS between 2003-2012. Ecological niche models (ENM) of Lu. longipalpis and VL cases were produced using the maximum entropy algorithm based on eight climatic variables. Lu. longipalpis showed a wide distribution in MS. The highest climatic suitability for Lu. longipalpis was observed in southern MS. Temperature seasonality and annual mean precipitation were the variables that most influenced these models. Two areas of high climatic suitability for the occurrence of VL cases were predicted: one near Aquidauana and another encompassing several municipalities in the southeast region of MS. As expected, a large overlap between the models for Lu. longipalpis and VL cases was detected. Northern and northwestern areas of MS were suitable for the occurrence of cases, but did not show high climatic suitability for Lu. longipalpis . ENM of vectors and human cases provided a greater understanding of the geographic distribution of VL in MS, which can be applied to the development of future surveillance strategies.

Genetic dissection of c-Myc function during mouse organogenesis

Résumé Le gène c-myc est un des oncogènes les plus fréquemment mutés dans les tumeurs humaines. Même si plus de 70 % des cancers humains montrent une dérégulation de c-Myc, les connaissances sur son rôle physiologique pendant le développement, et dans la souris adulte restent très peu connus. Récemment, notre laboratoire a pu montrer que c-Myc contrôle l'équilibre entre le renouvellement et la différenciation des cellules souches hématopoïetiques (CSH) dans la souris adulte. Ceci est probablement dû à lacapacité de c-Myc de contrôler l'entrée et la sortie des CSH de leur niche de la moelle osseuse, en régulant plusieurs molécules d'adhésion, parmi lesquelles la cadhérine-N (Wilson et al., 2004; Wilson and Trumpp, 2006). Des études utilisant un mutant d'inactivation ont demontré que la protéine c-Myc est essentielle pour le développement au delà du jour embryonnaire E9.5. Les embryons c-Myc déficients sont plus petits que la normale et possèdent de nombreux défauts; en particulier ils ne peuvent établir un système hématopoietique embryonnaire primitif (Trumpp et al., 2001). Nous avons récemment découvert que le développement du placenta dépend de la présence de cMyc. Ceci permet de proposer que certains, sinon tous, les défauts embryonnaires puorraient dériver indirectement d'un défaut nutritionnel causé par la défaillance du placenta. Afin de répondre à cette question de manière génétique, nous avons utilisé l'allele conditionel c-mycflox (Trumpp et al., 2001) en combinaison avec l'allele Sox2-Cre (Hayashi et al., 2002). Celui-ci détermine l'expression de la récombinase Cre spécifiquement dans les cellules de l'épiblaste à partir de E6.5, tandis qu'il n'y a pas, ou seulement très peu, d'activité de la récombinase Cre dans les tissus extraembryonnaires.Alnsi, cette stratégie nous permet de générer des embryons sans c-Myc qui se développent en présence d'un compartment extraembryonnaire ou c-Myc est exprimé normalement (Sox2Cre;c-mycflox2) Ces embryons, Sox2Cre;c-mycflox2 se développent et grandissent normalement tout en formant un système vasculaire normal, mais meurent à E11.5 à cause d'un sévère manque de cellules hématopoïetiques. De façon très intéressante, la seule population qui semble être présente en nombre à peu près normal dans ces embryons est celle des précurseurs et des cellules souches. Les cellules qui forment cette population prolifèrent normalement mais ne peuvent pas former des colonies in vitro, ce qui montre que ces cellules ont perdu leur activité de cellules souches. Cependant, lorsque nous avons analysé ces cellules plus en détail en éxaminant l'expression des molécules d'intégrine nous avons découvert que l'integrine ß est sur-éxprimée à la surface des cellules c-Myc déficientes. Ceci pourrait indiquer un mécanisme par lequel c-Myc régule des molécules d'adhésion sur les cellules du sang. En conséquence, en absence de c-Myc, l'adhésion et la migration des cellules du sang de l'AGM (Aorte-Gonade-Mésonéphros) vers le foie de l'embryon, à travers le système vasculaire, est compromise. En outre, nous avons pu montrer que les hépatocytes du foie, qui constitue le site principal de formation des cellules hématopoïetiques pendant le développement, est sévèrement atteint dans des Sox2Cre;c-mycflox2 embryons. Ceci n'est pas du à un défaut propre aux cellules hépatiques qui ont perdu c-Myc, mais résulte plutôt de l'absence de cellules hématopoietïques qui normalement colonisent le foie à ce stade du développement. Ces résultats représentent la première preuve directe que le développement des hépatoblastes est dépendant de signaux provenant des cellules du sang. Summary The myc gene is one of the most frequently mutated oncogenes in human tumors. It is found to be mis-regulated in over 70% of all human cancers. However, our knowledge about its physiological role in mammalian development and adulthood remains limited. Recent work in our laboratory showed that c-Myc controls the balance between hematopoietic stem cell (HSC) self-renewal and differentiation in the adult mouse. This is likely due to the capacity of c-Myc to control entry and exit of HSCs from the bone marrow niche by regulating a number of cell adhesion molecules including N-cadherin (Wilson et al., 2004; Wilson and Trumpp 2006). During development knockout studies showed that c-Myc is required for embryonic development beyond embryonic day (E) 9.5. c-Myc deficient embryos are severely reduced in size and show multiple defects including the failure to establish a primitive hematopoietic system (Trumpp et al., 2001). Importantly, we recentry uncovered that placental development also seems to depend on normal c-Myc function, raising the possibility that some if not all of the embryonic defects observed could be mediated indirectly by a nutrition defect caused by placental failure. To address this possibility genetically, we took advantage of the conditional c-mycflox allele (Trumpp et al., 2001) in combination with the Sox2-Cre allele (Hayashi et al., 2002), in which Cre expression is specifically targeted to all epiblast cells by E6.5, while there is little or no Cre activity inextra-embryonic lineages. Thus, this strategy allows the generation of c-Myc deficient embryos, which develop within a normal c-Myc expressing extra-embryonic compartment (Sox2Cre;c-mycflox2) Such Sox2Cre;c-mycflox2 embryos develop and grow appropriately and form a normal vascular system but die at E11.5 due to a severe lack of blood cells. Interestingly, the only hematopoietic population that seems to be present in almost normal numbers in the embryo is the stem/progenitor cell population. Cells within this populatíon proliferate normal but can not give rise to hematopoietic colonies in vitro showing that functional hematopoietic stem cell (HSC) activity is lost. However, when we analyzed these phenotypic HSCs in more detail and examined integrin expression in mutant stem/progenitor cells, we observed that ß1-integrin is upregulated. This may point to a potential mechanism whereby c-Myc regulates adhesíon molecules on hematopoietic cells and thereby disturbs adhesion and migration from the AGM (aorta-gonads-mesonephros) through the vascular system to the liver. Furthermore, we uncovered that the fetal liver, the main site of hematopoietic expansion at that stage, is severely affected in Sox2Cre;c-mycflox2 embryos and that this is not due to a cell intrinsic defect of c-Myc deficient hepatocytes but rather due to the lack of hematopoietic cells that normally colonize the fetal liver at that stage of development. This provides first direct evidence that hepatoblast development depends on signals derived from blood cells.

Do pseudo-absence selection strategies influence species distribution models and their predictions? An information-theoretic approach based on simulated data

Background Multiple logistic regression is precluded from many practical applications in ecology that aim to predict the geographic distributions of species because it requires absence data, which are rarely available or are unreliable. In order to use multiple logistic regression, many studies have simulated "pseudo-absences" through a number of strategies, but it is unknown how the choice of strategy influences models and their geographic predictions of species. In this paper we evaluate the effect of several prevailing pseudo-absence strategies on the predictions of the geographic distribution of a virtual species whose "true" distribution and relationship to three environmental predictors was predefined. We evaluated the effect of using a) real absences b) pseudo-absences selected randomly from the background and c) two-step approaches: pseudo-absences selected from low suitability areas predicted by either Ecological Niche Factor Analysis: (ENFA) or BIOCLIM. We compared how the choice of pseudo-absence strategy affected model fit, predictive power, and information-theoretic model selection results. Results Models built with true absences had the best predictive power, best discriminatory power, and the "true" model (the one that contained the correct predictors) was supported by the data according to AIC, as expected. Models based on random pseudo-absences had among the lowest fit, but yielded the second highest AUC value (0.97), and the "true" model was also supported by the data. Models based on two-step approaches had intermediate fit, the lowest predictive power, and the "true" model was not supported by the data. Conclusion If ecologists wish to build parsimonious GLM models that will allow them to make robust predictions, a reasonable approach is to use a large number of randomly selected pseudo-absences, and perform model selection based on an information theoretic approach. However, the resulting models can be expected to have limited fit.

Land use improves spatial predictions of mountain plant abundance but not presence-absence

Question Does a land-use variable improve spatial predictions of plant species presence-absence and abundance models at the regional scale in a mountain landscape? Location Western Swiss Alps. Methods Presence-absence generalized linear models (GLM) and abundance ordinal logistic regression models (LRM) were fitted to data on 78 mountain plant species, with topo-climatic and/or land-use variables available at a 25-m resolution. The additional contribution of land use when added to topo-climatic models was evaluated by: (1) assessing the changes in model fit and (2) predictive power, (3) partitioning the deviance respectively explained by the topo-climatic variables and the land-use variable through variation partitioning, and (5) comparing spatial projections. Results Land use significantly improved the fit of presence-absence models but not their predictive power. In contrast, land use significantly improved both the fit and predictive power of abundance models. Variation partitioning also showed that the individual contribution of land use to the deviance explained by presence-absence models was, on average, weak for both GLM and LRM (3.7% and 4.5%, respectively), but changes in spatial projections could nevertheless be important for some species. Conclusions In this mountain area and at our regional scale, land use is important for predicting abundance, but not presence-absence. The importance of adding land-use information depends on the species considered. Even without a marked effect on model fit and predictive performance, adding land use can affect spatial projections of both presence-absence and abundance models.

Atlas of Mexican Triatominae (Reduviidae: Hemiptera) and vector transmission of Chagas disease

Chagas disease is one of the most important yet neglected parasitic diseases in Mexico and is transmitted by Triatominae. Nineteen of the 31 Mexican triatomine species have been consistently found to invade human houses and all have been found to be naturally infected with Trypanosoma cruzi. The present paper aims to produce a state-of-knowledge atlas of Mexican triatomines and analyse their geographic associations with T. cruzi, human demographics and landscape modification. Ecological niche models (ENMs) were constructed for the 19 species with more than 10 records in North America, as well as for T. cruzi. The 2010 Mexican national census and the 2007 National Forestry Inventory were used to analyse overlap patterns with ENMs. Niche breadth was greatest in species from the semiarid Nearctic Region, whereas species richness was associated with topographic heterogeneity in the Neotropical Region, particularly along the Pacific Coast. Three species,Triatoma longipennis, Triatoma mexicana and Triatoma barberi, overlapped with the greatest numbers of human communities, but these communities had the lowest rural/urban population ratios. Triatomine vectors have urbanised in most regions, demonstrating a high tolerance to human-modified habitats and broadened historical ranges, exposing more than 88% of the Mexican population and leaving few areas in Mexico without the potential for T. cruzitransmission.

Geographic distribution of phlebotomine sandfly species (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Central-West Brazil

This study updates the geographic distributions of phlebotomine species in Central-West Brazil and analyses the climatic factors associated with their occurrence. The data were obtained from the entomology services of the state departments of health in Central-West Brazil, scientific collections and a literature review of articles from 1962-2014. Ecological niche models were produced for sandfly species with more than 20 occurrences using the Maxent algorithm and eight climate variables. In all, 2,803 phlebotomine records for 127 species were analysed. Nyssomyia whitmani,Evandromyia lenti and Lutzomyia longipalpiswere the species with the greatest number of records and were present in all the biomes in Central-West Brazil. The models, which were produced for 34 species, indicated that the Cerrado areas in the central and western regions of Central-West Brazil were climatically more suitable to sandflies. The variables with the greatest influence on the models were the temperature in the coldest months and the temperature seasonality. The results show that phlebotomine species in Central-West Brazil have different geographical distribution patterns and that climate conditions in essentially the entire region favour the occurrence of at least one Leishmania vector species, highlighting the need to maintain or intensify vector control and surveillance strategies.

Understanding the concepts of community phylogenetics

Background: Community phylogenetics is an emerging field of research that has made important contributions to understanding community assembly. The rapid development of this field can be attributed to the merging of phylogenetics and community ecology research to provide improved clarity on the processes that govern community structure and composition. Question: What are the major challenges that impede the sound interpretation of the patterns and processes of phylogenetic community assembly? Methods: We use four scenarios to illustrate explicitly how the phylogenetic structure of communities can exist in stable or transient phases, based on the different combinations of phylogenetic relationships and phenotypic traits among co-occurring species. We discuss these phases by implicating a two-way process in the assembly and disintegration of the given ecological community. Conclusions: This paper synthesizes the major concepts of community phylogenetics using habitat filtering and competition processes to elucidate how the understanding of phylogenetic community structure is currently hindered by the dynamics of community assembly and disassembly.

Overcoming the rare species modelling paradox: test of a novel hierarchical framework with an Iberian endemic plant

Rare species have restricted geographic ranges, habitat specialization, and/or small population sizes. Datasets on rare species distribution usually have few observations, limited spatial accuracy and lack of valid absences; conversely they provide comprehensive views of species distributions allowing to realistically capture most of their realized environmental niche. Rare species are the most in need of predictive distribution modelling but also the most difficult to model. We refer to this contrast as the "rare species modelling paradox" and propose as a solution developing modelling approaches that deal with a sufficiently large set of predictors, ensuring that statistical models aren't overfitted. Our novel approach fulfils this condition by fitting a large number of bivariate models and averaging them with a weighted ensemble approach. We further propose that this ensemble forecasting is conducted within a hierarchic multi-scale framework. We present two ensemble models for a test species, one at regional and one at local scale, each based on the combination of 630 models. In both cases, we obtained excellent spatial projections, unusual when modelling rare species. Model results highlight, from a statistically sound approach, the effects of multiple drivers in a same modelling framework and at two distinct scales. From this added information, regional models can support accurate forecasts of range dynamics under climate change scenarios, whereas local models allow the assessment of isolated or synergistic impacts of changes in multiple predictors. This novel framework provides a baseline for adaptive conservation, management and monitoring of rare species at distinct spatial and temporal scales.

Species distributions and interactions in a changing world : from understanding to forecasting

Les écosystèmes fournissent de nombreuses ressources et services écologiques qui sont utiles à la population humaine. La biodiversité est une composante essentielle des écosystèmes et maintient de nombreux services. Afin d'assurer la permanence des services écosystémiques, des mesures doivent être prises pour conserver la biodiversité. Dans ce but, l'acquisition d'informations détaillées sur la distribution de la biodiversité dans l'espace est essentielle. Les modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) sont des modèles empiriques qui mettent en lien des observations de terrain (présences ou absences d'une espèce) avec des descripteurs de l'environnement, selon des courbes de réponses statistiques qui décrive la niche réalisée des espèces. Ces modèles fournissent des projections spatiales indiquant les lieux les plus favorables pour les espèces considérées. Le principal objectif de cette thèse est de fournir des projections plus réalistes de la distribution des espèces et des communautés en montagne pour le climat présent et futur en considérant non-seulement des variables abiotiques mais aussi biotiques. Les régions de montagne et l'écosystème alpin sont très sensibles aux changements globaux et en même temps assurent de nombreux services écosystémiques. Cette thèse est séparée en trois parties : (i) fournir une meilleure compréhension du rôle des interactions biotiques dans la distribution des espèces et l'assemblage des communautés en montagne (ouest des Alpes Suisses), (ii) permettre le développement d'une nouvelle approche pour modéliser la distribution spatiale de la biodiversité, (iii) fournir des projections plus réalistes de la distribution future des espèces ainsi que de la composition des communautés. En me focalisant sur les papillons, bourdons et plantes vasculaires, j'ai détecté des interactions biotiques importantes qui lient les espèces entre elles. J'ai également identifié la signature du filtre de l'environnement sur les communautés en haute altitude confirmant l'utilité des SDMs pour reproduire ce type de processus. A partir de ces études, j'ai contribué à l'amélioration méthodologique des SDMs dans le but de prédire les communautés en incluant les interactions biotiques et également les processus non-déterministes par une approche probabiliste. Cette approche permet de prédire non-seulement la distribution d'espèces individuelles, mais également celle de communautés dans leur entier en empilant les projections (S-SDMs). Finalement, j'ai utilisé cet outil pour prédire la distribution d'espèces et de communautés dans le passé et le futur. En particulier, j'ai modélisé la migration post-glaciaire de Trollius europaeus qui est à l'origine de la structure génétique intra-spécifique chez cette espèce et évalué les risques de perte face au changement climatique. Finalement, j'ai simulé la distribution des communautés de bourdons pour le 21e siècle afin d'évaluer les changements probables dans ce groupe important de pollinisateurs. La diversité fonctionnelle des bourdons va être altérée par la perte d'espèces spécialistes de haute altitude et ceci va influencer la pollinisation des plantes en haute altitude. - Ecosystems provide a multitude of resources and ecological services, which are useful to human. Biodiversity is an essential component of those ecosystems and guarantee many services. To assure the permanence of ecosystem services for future generation, measure should be applied to conserve biodiversity. For this purpose, the acquisition of detailed information on how biodiversity implicated in ecosystem function is distributed in space is essential. Species distribution models (SDMs) are empirical models relating field observations to environmental predictors based on statistically-derived response surfaces that fit the realized niche. These models result in spatial predictions indicating locations of the most suitable environment for the species and may potentially be applied to predict composition of communities and their functional properties. The main objective of this thesis was to provide more accurate projections of species and communities distribution under current and future climate in mountains by considering not solely abiotic but also biotic drivers of species distribution. Mountain areas and alpine ecosystems are considered as particularly sensitive to global changes and are also sources of essential ecosystem services. This thesis had three main goals: (i) a better ecological understanding of biotic interactions and how they shape the distribution of species and communities, (ii) the development of a novel approach to the spatial modeling of biodiversity, that can account for biotic interactions, and (iii) ecologically more realistic projections of future species distributions, of future composition and structure of communities. Focusing on butterfly and bumblebees in interaction with the vegetation, I detected important biotic interactions for species distribution and community composition of both plant and insects along environmental gradients. I identified the signature of environmental filtering processes at high elevation confirming the suitability of SDMs for reproducing patterns of filtering. Using those case-studies, I improved SDMs by incorporating biotic interaction and accounting for non-deterministic processes and uncertainty using a probabilistic based approach. I used improved modeling to forecast the distribution of species through the past and future climate changes. SDMs hindcasting allowed a better understanding of the spatial range dynamic of Trollius europaeus in Europe at the origin of the species intra-specific genetic diversity and identified the risk of loss of this genetic diversity caused by climate change. By simulating the future distribution of all bumblebee species in the western Swiss Alps under nine climate change scenarios for the 21st century, I found that the functional diversity of this pollinator guild will be largely affected by climate change through the loss of high elevation specialists. In turn, this will have important consequences on alpine plant pollination.

Scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil in 2020

Brazilian milk production has grown steadily and in 2004 the country became self-sufficient in dairy production. This article develops possible scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil for the year 2020 in order to contribute to decisions that must be made by stakeholders. A literature review on foresight and the use of scenarios was conducted, and a scenario writing approach based on Wright and Spers (2006) was adopted, which includes the use of the Delphi method, Michael Porter's Five Competitive Forces model, Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) (WRIGHT, 1991) and quantitative projections. This methodology provided four scenarios, with quantitative and qualitative elements: two exploratory scenarios ("milk, the new agribusiness star" and "a wasted future"), a most probable scenario ("continuous but uneven growth") and a desired scenario ("competitive family agriculture"). Overall, it is possible to note many market opportunities, as well as niche markets and the strengthening of cooperatives. Future prospects are also favorable to the dairy industry in general, but nearly all scenarios point to a concentration in the industrial sphere.

Enhancing efficacy of anticancer vaccines by targeted delivery to tumor-draining lymph nodes.

The sentinel or tumor-draining lymph node (tdLN) serves as a metastatic niche for many solid tumors and is altered via tumor-derived factors that support tumor progression and metastasis. tdLNs are often removed surgically, and therapeutic vaccines against tumor antigens are typically administered systemically or in non-tumor-associated sites. Although the tdLN is immune-suppressed, it is also antigen experienced through drainage of tumor-associated antigens (TAA), so we asked whether therapeutic vaccines targeting the tdLN would be more or less effective than those targeting the non-tdLN. Using LN-targeting nanoparticle (NP)-conjugate vaccines consisting of TAA-NP and CpG-NP, we compared delivery to the tdLN versus non-tdLN in two different cancer models, E.G7-OVA lymphoma (expressing the nonendogenous TAA ovalbumin) and B16-F10 melanoma. Surprisingly, despite the immune-suppressed state of the tdLN, tdLN-targeting vaccination induced substantially stronger cytotoxic CD8+ T-cell responses, both locally and systemically, than non-tdLN-targeting vaccination, leading to enhanced tumor regression and host survival. This improved tumor regression correlated with a shift in the tumor-infiltrating leukocyte repertoire toward a less suppressive and more immunogenic balance. Nanoparticle coupling of adjuvant and antigen was required for effective tdLN targeting, as nanoparticle coupling dramatically increased the delivery of antigen and adjuvant to LN-resident antigen-presenting cells, thereby increasing therapeutic efficacy. This work highlights the tdLN as a target for cancer immunotherapy and shows how its antigen-experienced but immune-suppressed state can be reprogrammed with a targeted vaccine yielding antitumor immunity.

Adult hippocampal neurogenesis inversely correlates with microglia in conditions of voluntary running and aging.

Adult hippocampal neurogenesis results in the formation of new neurons and is a process of brain plasticity involved in learning and memory. The proliferation of adult neural stem or progenitor cells is regulated by several extrinsic factors such as experience, disease or aging and intrinsic factors originating from the neurogenic niche. Microglia is very abundant in the dentate gyrus (DG) and increasing evidence indicates that these cells mediate the inflammation-induced reduction in neurogenesis. However, the role of microglia in neurogenesis in physiological conditions remains poorly understood. In this study, we monitored microglia and the proliferation of adult hippocampal stem/progenitor cells in physiological conditions known to increase or decrease adult neurogenesis, voluntary running and aging respectively. We found that the number of microglia in the DG was strongly inversely correlated with the number of stem/progenitor cells and cell proliferation in the granule cell layer. Accordingly, co-cultures of decreasing neural progenitor/glia ratio showed that microglia but not astroglia reduced the number of progenitor cells. Together, these results suggest that microglia inhibits the proliferation of neural stem/progenitor cells despite the absence of inflammatory stimulus.

Climate change, anthropogenic disturbance and the northward range expansion of Lactuca serriola (Asteraceae)

The distribution range of Lactuca serriola, a species native to the summer-dry mediterranean climate, has expanded northwards during the last 250 years. This paper assesses the influence of climate on the range expansion of this species and highlights the importance of anthropogenic disturbance to its spread. Location Central and Northern Europe. Methods Data on the geographic distribution of L. serriola were assembled through a literature search as well as through floristic and herbarium surveys. Maps of the spread of L. serriola in Central and Northern Europe were prepared based on herbarium data. The spread was assessed more precisely in Germany, Austria and Great Britain by pooling herbarium and literature data. We modelled the bioclimatic niche of the species using occurrence and climatic data covering the last century to generate projections of suitable habitats under the climatic conditions of five time periods. We tested whether the observed distribution of L. serriola could be explained for each time period, assuming that the climatic niche of the species was conserved across time. Results The species has spread northwards since the beginning of the 19th century. We show that climate warming in Europe increased the number of sites suitable for the species at northern latitudes. Until the late 1970s, the distribution of the species corresponded to the climatically suitable sites available. For the last two decades, however, we could not show any significant relationship between the increase in suitable sites and the distributional range change of L. serriola. However, we highlight potential areas the species could spread to in the future (Great Britain, southern Scandinavia and the Swedish coast). It is predominantly non-climatic influences of global change that have contributed to its rapid spread. Main conclusions The observation that colonizing species are not filling their climatically suitable range might imply that, potentially, other ruderal species could expand far beyond their current range. Our work highlights the importance of historical floristic and herbarium data for understanding the expansion of a species. Such historical distributional data can provide valuable information for those planning the management of contemporary environmental problems, such as species responses to environmental change.

Experimental plant communities develop phylogenetically overdispersed abundance distributions during assembly

The importance of competition between similar species in driving community assembly is much debated. Recently, phylogenetic patterns in species composition have been investigated to help resolve this question: phylogenetic clustering is taken to imply environmental filtering, and phylogenetic overdispersion to indicate limiting similarity between species. We used experimental plant communities with random species compositions and initially even abundance distributions to examine the development of phylogenetic pattern in species abundance distributions. Where composition was held constant by weeding, abundance distributions became overdispersed through time, but only in communities that contained distantly related clades, some with several species (i.e., a mix of closely and distantly related species). Phylogenetic pattern in composition therefore constrained the development of overdispersed abundance distributions, and this might indicate limiting similarity between close relatives and facilitation/complementarity between distant relatives. Comparing the phylogenetic patterns in these communities with those expected from the monoculture abundances of the constituent species revealed that interspecific competition caused the phylogenetic patterns. Opening experimental communities to colonization by all species in the species pool led to convergence in phylogenetic diversity. At convergence, communities were composed of several distantly related but species-rich clades and had overdispersed abundance distributions. This suggests that limiting similarity processes determine which species dominate a community but not which species occur in a community. Crucially, as our study was carried out in experimental communities, we could rule out local evolutionary or dispersal explanations for the patterns and identify ecological processes as the driving force, underlining the advantages of studying these processes in experimental communities. Our results show that phylogenetic relations between species provide a good guide to understanding community structure and add a new perspective to the evidence that niche complementarity is critical in driving community assembly.