978 resultados para NIRS. Plum. Multivariate calibration. Variables selection


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Background: Adjuvant chemoradiotherapy is part of a multimodality treatment approach in order to improve survival outcomes after surgery for gastric cancer. The aims of this study are to describe the results of gastrectomy and adjuvant chemoradiotherapy in patients treated in a single institution, and to identify prognostic factors that could determine which individuals would benefit from this treatment. Methods: This retrospective study included patients with pathologically confirmed gastric adenocarcinoma who underwent surgical treatment with curative intent in a single cancer center in Brazil, between 1998 and 2008. Among 327 patients treated in this period, 142 were selected. Exclusion criteria were distant metastatic disease (M1), T1N0 tumors, different multimodality treatments and tumors of the gastric stump. Another 10 individuals were lost to follow-up and there were 3 postoperative deaths. The role of several clinical and pathological variables as prognostic factors was determined. Results: D2-lymphadenectomy was performed in 90.8% of the patients, who had 5-year overall and disease-free survival of 58.9% and 55.7%. The interaction of N-category and N-ratio, extended resection and perineural invasion were independent prognostic factors for overall and disease-free survival. Adjuvant chemoradiotherapy was not associated with a significant improvement in survival. Patients with node-positive disease had improved survival with adjuvant chemoradiotherapy, especially when we grouped patients with N1 and N2 tumors and a higher N-ratio. These individuals had worse disease-free (30.3% vs. 48.9%) and overall survival (30.9% vs. 71.4%). Conclusion: N-category and N-ratio interaction, perineural invasion and extended resections were prognostic factors for survival in gastric cancer patients treated with D2-lymphadenectomy, but adjuvant chemoradiotherapy was not. There may be some benefit with this treatment in patients with node-positive disease and higher N-ratio.

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This study performed an exploratory analysis of the anthropometrical and morphological muscle variables related to the one-repetition maximum (1RM) performance. In addition, the capacity of these variables to predict the force production was analyzed. 50 active males were submitted to the experimental procedures: vastus lateralis muscle biopsy, quadriceps magnetic resonance imaging, body mass assessment and 1RM test in the leg-press exercise. K-means cluster analysis was performed after obtaining the body mass, sum of the left and right quadriceps muscle cross-sectional area (Sigma CSA), percentage of the type II fibers and the 1RM performance. The number of clusters was defined a priori and then were labeled as high strength performance (HSP1RM) group and low strength performance (LSP1RM) group. Stepwise multiple regressions were performed by means of body mass, Sigma CSA, percentage of the type II fibers and clusters as predictors' variables and 1RM performance as response variable. The clusters mean +/- SD were: 292.8 +/- 52.1 kg, 84.7 +/- 17.9 kg, 19249.7 +/- 1645.5 mm(2) and 50.8 +/- 7.2% for the HSP1RM and 254.0 +/- 51.1 kg, 69.2 +/- 8.1 kg, 15483.1 +/- 1 104.8 mm(2) and 51.7 +/- 6.2 %, for the LSP1RM in the 1RM, body mass, Sigma CSA and muscle fiber type II percentage, respectively. The most important variable in the clusters division was the Sigma CSA. In addition, the Sigma CSA and muscle fiber type II percentage explained the variance in the 1RM performance (Adj R-2 = 0.35, p = 0.0001) for all participants and for the LSP1RM (Adj R-2 = 0.25, p = 0.002). For the HSP1RM, only the Sigma CSA was entered in the model and showed the highest capacity to explain the variance in the 1RM performance (Adj R-2 = 0.38, p = 0.01). As a conclusion, the muscle CSA was the most relevant variable to predict force production in individuals with no strength training background.

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We investigated dietary intake patterns (DIP) in adolescents (14-18 year-olds) and the association with demographic and socioeconomic characteristics and lifestyle variables. This school-based survey was carried out among high school students from the city of Maringa in the state of Parana (PR), Brazil (2007). The sample included 991 students (54.5% girls) from high schools. DIPs were investigated by the frequency of weekly consumption of each food group: vegetables, fruit, rice, beans, fried food, sweet food, milk, soda, meat, eggs, alcoholic drinks. Independent variables were: demographic and socioeconomic characteristics and lifestyle variables. DIPS were identified using principal component analysis with orthogonal rotation (varimax). Three components were extracted. Component 1 (fried foods, sweets and soft drinks) was positively associated with not having breakfast for girls and dinner for boys. Moreover, component 2 (consumption of fruit and vegetables) was positively associated with having breakfast at home for boys and number of meals for girls. Component 3 (beans, eggs and meat) was positively associated with having lunch, employment and sedentary behavior level for girls. However, it was negatively associated with having lunch and dinner for boys. Adolescents who have healthier eating patterns also had other healthier behaviors regardless of gender. However, factors associated with dietary patterns differ between boys and girls. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Context. The ESO public survey VISTA variables in the Via Lactea (VVV) started in 2010. VVV targets 562 sq. deg in the Galactic bulge and an adjacent plane region and is expected to run for about five years. Aims. We describe the progress of the survey observations in the first observing season, the observing strategy, and quality of the data obtained. Methods. The observations are carried out on the 4-m VISTA telescope in the ZYJHK(s) filters. In addition to the multi-band imaging the variability monitoring campaign in the K-s filter has started. Data reduction is carried out using the pipeline at the Cambridge Astronomical Survey Unit. The photometric and astrometric calibration is performed via the numerous 2MASS sources observed in each pointing. Results. The first data release contains the aperture photometry and astrometric catalogues for 348 individual pointings in the ZYJHK(s) filters taken in the 2010 observing season. The typical image quality is similar to 0 ''.9-1 ''.0. The stringent photometric and image quality requirements of the survey are satisfied in 100% of the JHK(s) images in the disk area and 90% of the JHK(s) images in the bulge area. The completeness in the Z and Y images is 84% in the disk, and 40% in the bulge. The first season catalogues contain 1.28 x 10(8) stellar sources in the bulge and 1.68 x 10(8) in the disk area detected in at least one of the photometric bands. The combined, multi-band catalogues contain more than 1.63 x 10(8) stellar sources. About 10% of these are double detections because of overlapping adjacent pointings. These overlapping multiple detections are used to characterise the quality of the data. The images in the JHK(s) bands extend typically similar to 4 mag deeper than 2MASS. The magnitude limit and photometric quality depend strongly on crowding in the inner Galactic regions. The astrometry for K-s = 15-18 mag has rms similar to 35-175 mas. Conclusions. The VVV Survey data products offer a unique dataset to map the stellar populations in the Galactic bulge and the adjacent plane and provide an exciting new tool for the study of the structure, content, and star-formation history of our Galaxy, as well as for investigations of the newly discovered star clusters, star-forming regions in the disk, high proper motion stars, asteroids, planetary nebulae, and other interesting objects.

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Objectives: to identify factors associated with maternal intrapartum transfer from a freestanding birth centre to hospital. Design: case-control study with retrospective data collection. Participants and settings: cases included all 111 women transferred from a freestanding birth centre in Sao Paulo to the referral hospital, from March 2002 to December 2009. The controls were 456 women who gave birth in the birth centre during the same period who were not transferred, randomly selected with four controls for each case. Methods: data were obtained from maternal records. Factors associated with maternal intrapartum transfers were initially analysed using a chi(2) test of association. Variables with p < 0.20 were then included in multivariate analyses. A multiple logistic regression model was built using stepwise forward selection; variables which reached statistical significance at p < 0.05 were considered to be independently associated with maternal transfer. Findings: during the study data collection period, 111(4%) of 2,736 women admitted to the centre were transferred intrapartum. Variables identified as independently associated factors for intrapartum transfer included nulliparity (OR 5.1, 95% CI 2.7-9.8), maternal age >= 35 years (OR 5.4, 95% CI 2.1-13.4), not having a partner (OR 2.8, 95% CI 1.5-5.3), cervical dilation <= 3 cm on admission to the birth centre (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.1-3.2) and between 5 and 12 antenatal appointments at the birth centre (OR 3.8, 95% CI 1.9-7.5). In contrast, a low correlation between fundal height and pregnancy gestation (OR 0.3, 95% CI 0.2-0.6) appeared to be protective against transfer. Conclusions and implications for practice: identifying factors associated with maternal intrapartum transfer could support decision making by women considering options for place of birth, and support the content of appropriate information about criteria for admission to a birth centre. Findings add to the evidence base to support identification of women in early labour who may experience later complications and could support timely implementation of appropriate interventions associated with reducing transfer rates. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Quality of fresh-cut carambola (Averrhoa carambola L) is related to many chemical and biochemical variables especially those involved with softening and browning, both influenced by storage temperature. To study these effects, a multivariate analysis was used to evaluate slices packaged in vacuum-sealed polyolefin bags, and stored at 2.5 degrees C, 5 degrees C and 10 degrees C, for up to 16 d. The quality of slices at each temperature was correlated with the duration of storage, O(2) and CO(2) concentration in the package, physical chemical constituents, and activity of enzymes involved in softening (PG) and browning (PPO) metabolism. Three quality groups were identified by hierarchical cluster analysis, and the classification of the components within each of these groups was obtained from a principal component analysis (PCA). The characterization of samples by PCA clearly distinguished acceptable and non-acceptable slices. According to PCA, acceptable slices presented higher ascorbic acid content, greater hue angles ((o)h) and final lightness (L-5) in the first principal component (PC1). On the other hand, non-acceptable slices presented higher total pectin content. PPO activity in the PC1. Non-acceptable slices also presented higher soluble pectin content, increased pectin solubilisation and higher CO(2) concentration in the second principal component (PC2) whereas acceptable slices showed lower total sugar content. The hierarchical cluster and PCA analyses were useful for discriminating the quality of slices stored at different temperatures. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Although a large amount of data have been published in past years on the taxonomic status of the Anastrepha fraterculus (Wiedemann) species complex, there is still a need to know how many species this complex comprises, the distribution of each one, and their distinguishing features. In this study, we assessed the morphometric variability of 32 populations from the A. fraterculus complex, located in major biogeographical areas from the Neotropics. Multivariate techniques for analysis were applied to the measurements of 21 variables referring to the mesonotum, aculeus, and wing. For the first time, our results identified the presence of seven distinct morphotypes within this species complex. According to the biogeographical areas, populations occurring in the Mesoamerican dominion (Mexico, Guatemala, and Panama) were clustered within a single natural entity labeled as the "Mexican" morphotype; whereas in the northwestern South American dominion, samples fell into three distinct groups: the "Venezuelan" morphotype with a single population from the Caribbean lowlands of Venezuela, the "Andean" morphotype from the highlands of Venezuela and Colombia, and the third group or "Peruvian" morphotype comprised the samples from the Pacific coastal lowlands of Ecuador and Peru. Three additional groups were identified from the Chacoan and Paranaense sub-regions: the morphotype "Brazilian-1" was recognized as including the Argentinean samples with most pertaining to Brazil, and widely distributed in these biogeographical areas; the morphotype "Brazilian-2" was recognized as including two samples from the state of Sao Paulo (Ilha-Bela and Sao Sebastiao); whereas the morphotype "Brazilian-3" included a single population from Botucatu (state of Sao Paulo). Based on data published by previous authors showing genetic and karyotypic differentiation, as well as reproductive isolation, we have concluded that such morphotypes indeed represent natural groups and distinct taxonomic entities.

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The work of hospital food service is characterized by demands that can be associated with work ability - WA. The aim of this study was to evaluate factors associated with WA among hospital food service professionals and recommend intervention measures. This is a cross sectional study carried out in 2009, conducted in a hospital of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Participants were 76 (96.2%) of the eligible. They filled out a questionnaire including socio-demographic data, life styles, working conditions and WA. Multivariate linear regression analyses were performed. Factors associated with WA were age (p=0.051), over commitment (p=0.011), effort-reward ratio (p=0.002) and work injuries (p<0.001). In spite was a young population, age was associated with WA. Association with work injuries is consistent with the theoretical model that demonstrated that health status is the basis to maintain the WA. The association of effort-reward imbalance shows that issues related with work organization are relevant for these workers. The association of overcommittment suggests that workers recognize their responsibility with the therapeutic processes of patients. Results showed a number of features of different nature that should be taken into account when implementing measures to improve the WA, to be applied at different levels: individual, task and institutional.

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AIM: The main goal of this research was to investigate the influence of the hydrological pulses on the space-temporal dynamics of physical and chemical variables in a wetland adjacent to Jacupiranguinha River (São Paulo, Brazil); METHODS: Eleven sampling points were distributed among the wetland, a tributary by its left side and the adjacent river. Four samplings were carried out, covering the rainy and the dry periods. Measures of pH, dissolved oxygen, electrical conductivity and redox potential were taken in regular intervals of the water column using a multiparametric probe. Water samples were collected for the nitrogen and total phosphorus analysis, as well as their dissolved fractions (dissolved inorganic phosphorus, total dissolved phosphorus, ammoniacal nitrogen and nitrate). Total alkalinity and suspended solids were also quantified; RESULTS: The Multivariate Analysis of Variance showed the influence of the seasonality on the variability of the investigated variables, while the Principal Component Analysis gave rise in two statistical significant axes, which delimited two groups representative of the rainy and dry periods. Hydrological pulses from Jacupiranguinha River, besides contributing to the inputs of nutrients and sediments during the period of connectivity, accounted for the decrease in spatial gradients in the wetland. This "homogenization effect" was evidenced by the Cluster Analysis. The research also showed an industrial raw effluent as the main point source of phosphorus to the Jacupiranguinha River and, indirectly, to the wetland; CONCLUSIONS: Therefore, considering the scarcity of information about the wetlands in the study area, this research, besides contributing to the understanding of the influence of hydrological pulses on the investigated environmental variables, showed the need for adoption of conservation policies of these ecosystems face the increase anthropic pressures that they have been submitted, which may result in lack of their ecological, social and economic functions.

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This thesis presents a creative and practical approach to dealing with the problem of selection bias. Selection bias may be the most important vexing problem in program evaluation or in any line of research that attempts to assert causality. Some of the greatest minds in economics and statistics have scrutinized the problem of selection bias, with the resulting approaches – Rubin’s Potential Outcome Approach(Rosenbaum and Rubin,1983; Rubin, 1991,2001,2004) or Heckman’s Selection model (Heckman, 1979) – being widely accepted and used as the best fixes. These solutions to the bias that arises in particular from self selection are imperfect, and many researchers, when feasible, reserve their strongest causal inference for data from experimental rather than observational studies. The innovative aspect of this thesis is to propose a data transformation that allows measuring and testing in an automatic and multivariate way the presence of selection bias. The approach involves the construction of a multi-dimensional conditional space of the X matrix in which the bias associated with the treatment assignment has been eliminated. Specifically, we propose the use of a partial dependence analysis of the X-space as a tool for investigating the dependence relationship between a set of observable pre-treatment categorical covariates X and a treatment indicator variable T, in order to obtain a measure of bias according to their dependence structure. The measure of selection bias is then expressed in terms of inertia due to the dependence between X and T that has been eliminated. Given the measure of selection bias, we propose a multivariate test of imbalance in order to check if the detected bias is significant, by using the asymptotical distribution of inertia due to T (Estadella et al. 2005) , and by preserving the multivariate nature of data. Further, we propose the use of a clustering procedure as a tool to find groups of comparable units on which estimate local causal effects, and the use of the multivariate test of imbalance as a stopping rule in choosing the best cluster solution set. The method is non parametric, it does not call for modeling the data, based on some underlying theory or assumption about the selection process, but instead it calls for using the existing variability within the data and letting the data to speak. The idea of proposing this multivariate approach to measure selection bias and test balance comes from the consideration that in applied research all aspects of multivariate balance, not represented in the univariate variable- by-variable summaries, are ignored. The first part contains an introduction to evaluation methods as part of public and private decision process and a review of the literature of evaluation methods. The attention is focused on Rubin Potential Outcome Approach, matching methods, and briefly on Heckman’s Selection Model. The second part focuses on some resulting limitations of conventional methods, with particular attention to the problem of how testing in the correct way balancing. The third part contains the original contribution proposed , a simulation study that allows to check the performance of the method for a given dependence setting and an application to a real data set. Finally, we discuss, conclude and explain our future perspectives.

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The presented study carried out an analysis on rural landscape changes. In particular the study focuses on the understanding of driving forces acting on the rural built environment using a statistical spatial model implemented through GIS techniques. It is well known that the study of landscape changes is essential for a conscious decision making in land planning. From a bibliography review results a general lack of studies dealing with the modeling of rural built environment and hence a theoretical modelling approach for such purpose is needed. The advancement in technology and modernity in building construction and agriculture have gradually changed the rural built environment. In addition, the phenomenon of urbanization of a determined the construction of new volumes that occurred beside abandoned or derelict rural buildings. Consequently there are two types of transformation dynamics affecting mainly the rural built environment that can be observed: the conversion of rural buildings and the increasing of building numbers. It is the specific aim of the presented study to propose a methodology for the development of a spatial model that allows the identification of driving forces that acted on the behaviours of the building allocation. In fact one of the most concerning dynamic nowadays is related to an irrational expansion of buildings sprawl across landscape. The proposed methodology is composed by some conceptual steps that cover different aspects related to the development of a spatial model: the selection of a response variable that better describe the phenomenon under study, the identification of possible driving forces, the sampling methodology concerning the collection of data, the most suitable algorithm to be adopted in relation to statistical theory and method used, the calibration process and evaluation of the model. A different combination of factors in various parts of the territory generated favourable or less favourable conditions for the building allocation and the existence of buildings represents the evidence of such optimum. Conversely the absence of buildings expresses a combination of agents which is not suitable for building allocation. Presence or absence of buildings can be adopted as indicators of such driving conditions, since they represent the expression of the action of driving forces in the land suitability sorting process. The existence of correlation between site selection and hypothetical driving forces, evaluated by means of modeling techniques, provides an evidence of which driving forces are involved in the allocation dynamic and an insight on their level of influence into the process. GIS software by means of spatial analysis tools allows to associate the concept of presence and absence with point futures generating a point process. Presence or absence of buildings at some site locations represent the expression of these driving factors interaction. In case of presences, points represent locations of real existing buildings, conversely absences represent locations were buildings are not existent and so they are generated by a stochastic mechanism. Possible driving forces are selected and the existence of a causal relationship with building allocations is assessed through a spatial model. The adoption of empirical statistical models provides a mechanism for the explanatory variable analysis and for the identification of key driving variables behind the site selection process for new building allocation. The model developed by following the methodology is applied to a case study to test the validity of the methodology. In particular the study area for the testing of the methodology is represented by the New District of Imola characterized by a prevailing agricultural production vocation and were transformation dynamic intensively occurred. The development of the model involved the identification of predictive variables (related to geomorphologic, socio-economic, structural and infrastructural systems of landscape) capable of representing the driving forces responsible for landscape changes.. The calibration of the model is carried out referring to spatial data regarding the periurban and rural area of the study area within the 1975-2005 time period by means of Generalised linear model. The resulting output from the model fit is continuous grid surface where cells assume values ranged from 0 to 1 of probability of building occurrences along the rural and periurban area of the study area. Hence the response variable assesses the changes in the rural built environment occurred in such time interval and is correlated to the selected explanatory variables by means of a generalized linear model using logistic regression. Comparing the probability map obtained from the model to the actual rural building distribution in 2005, the interpretation capability of the model can be evaluated. The proposed model can be also applied to the interpretation of trends which occurred in other study areas, and also referring to different time intervals, depending on the availability of data. The use of suitable data in terms of time, information, and spatial resolution and the costs related to data acquisition, pre-processing, and survey are among the most critical aspects of model implementation. Future in-depth studies can focus on using the proposed model to predict short/medium-range future scenarios for the rural built environment distribution in the study area. In order to predict future scenarios it is necessary to assume that the driving forces do not change and that their levels of influence within the model are not far from those assessed for the time interval used for the calibration.

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The accretionary shells of bivalve mollusks can provide environmental information, such as water temperature, precipitation, freshwater fluxes, primary productivity and anthropogenic activities in the form of variable growth rates and variable geochemical properties, such as stable oxygen and carbon isotopes. However, paleoenvironmental reconstructions are constrained by uncertainties about isotopic equilibrium fractionation during shell formation, which is generally acknowledged as a reasonable assumption for bivalves, but it has been disputed in several species. Furthermore, the variation in shell growth rates is accepted to rely on multiple environmental variables, such as temperature, food availability and salinity, but can differ from species to species. Therefore, it is necessary to perform species-specific calibration studies for both isotope proxies and shell growth rates before they can be used with confidence for environmental interpretations of the past. Accordingly, the principal objective of this Ph.D research is to examine the reliability of selected bivalve species, the long-lived Eurhomalea exalbida (Dillwyn), the short-lived and fast growing species Paphia undulata (Born 1778), and the freshwater mussel Margaritifera falcata (Gould 1850), as paleoenvironmental proxy archives.rnThe first part is focused on δ18Oshell and shell growth history of live-collected E. exalbida from the Falkland Islands. The most remarkable finding, however, is that E. exalbida formed its shell with an offset of -0.48‰ to -1.91‰ from the expected oxygen isotopic equilibrium with the ambient water. If this remained unnoticed, paleotemperature estimates would overestimate actual water temperatures by 2.1-8.3°C. With increasing ontogenetic age, the discrepancy between measured and reconstructed temperatures increased exponentially, irrespective of the seasonally varying shell growth rates. This study clearly demonstrates that, when the disequilibrium fractionation effect is taken into account, E. exalbida can serve as a high-resolution paleoclimate archive for the southern South America. The species therefore provides quantifiable temperature estimates, which yields new insights into long-term paleoclimate dynamics for mid to high latitudes on the southern hemisphere.rnThe stable carbon isotope of biogenic carbonates is generally considered to be useful for reconstruction of seawater dissolved inorganic carbon. The δ13Cshell composition of E. exalbida was therefore, investigated in the second part of this study. This chapter focuses on inter-annual and intra-annual variations in δ13Cshell. Environmental records in δ13Cshell are found to be strongly obscured by changes in shell growth rates, even if removing the ontogenetic decreasing trend. This suggests that δ13Cshell in E. exalbida may not be useful as an environmental proxy, but a potential tool for ecological investigations. rnIn addition to long-lived bivalve species, short-lived species that secrete their shells extremely fast, can also be useful for environmental reconstructions, especially as a high-resolution recorder. Therefore, P. undulata from Daya Bay, South China Sea was utilized in Chapter 4 to evaluate and establish a potential proxy archive for past variations of the East Asian monsoon on shorter time-scales. The δ18Oshell can provide qualitative estimates of the amount of monsoonal rain and terrestrial runoff and the δ13Cshell likely reflect the relative amount of isotopically light terrestrial carbon that reaches the ocean during the summer monsoon season. Therefore, shells of P. undulata can provide serviceable proxy archives to reconstruct the frequency of exceptional summer monsoons in the past. The relative strength of monsoon-related precipitation and associated changes in ocean salinity and the δ13C ratios of the dissolved inorganic carbon signature (δ13CDIC) can be estimated from the δ18Oshell and δ13Cshell values as well as shell growth patterns. rnIn the final part, the freshwater pearl shell M. falcata from four rivers in British Columbia, Canada was preliminarily studied concerning the lifespans and the shell growth rates. Two groups separated by the Georgia Strait can be clearly distinguished. Specimens from the western group exhibit a shorter lifespan, while the eastern group live longer. Moreover, the average lifespan seems to decrease from south to north. The computed growth equations from the eastern and western groups differ as well. The western group exhibits a lower growth rate, while bivalves from the eastern group grow faster. The land use history seems to be responsible for the differences in lifespans of the specimens from the two groups. Differences in growth rate may be induced by differences in water temperature or nutrient input also related to the land use activities.

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The Large Hadron Collider, located at the CERN laboratories in Geneva, is the largest particle accelerator in the world. One of the main research fields at LHC is the study of the Higgs boson, the latest particle discovered at the ATLAS and CMS experiments. Due to the small production cross section for the Higgs boson, only a substantial statistics can offer the chance to study this particle properties. In order to perform these searches it is desirable to avoid the contamination of the signal signature by the number and variety of the background processes produced in pp collisions at LHC. Much account assumes the study of multivariate methods which, compared to the standard cut-based analysis, can enhance the signal selection of a Higgs boson produced in association with a top quark pair through a dileptonic final state (ttH channel). The statistics collected up to 2012 is not sufficient to supply a significant number of ttH events; however, the methods applied in this thesis will provide a powerful tool for the increasing statistics that will be collected during the next LHC data taking.

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The variables involved in the equations that describe realistic synaptic dynamics always vary in a limited range. Their boundedness makes the synapses forgetful, not for the mere passage of time, but because new experiences overwrite old memories. The forgetting rate depends on how many synapses are modified by each new experience: many changes means fast learning and fast forgetting, whereas few changes means slow learning and long memory retention. Reducing the average number of modified synapses can extend the memory span at the price of a reduced amount of information stored when a new experience is memorized. Every trick which allows to slow down the learning process in a smart way can improve the memory performance. We review some of the tricks that allow to elude fast forgetting (oblivion). They are based on the stochastic selection of the synapses whose modifications are actually consolidated following each new experience. In practice only a randomly selected, small fraction of the synapses eligible for an update are actually modified. This allows to acquire the amount of information necessary to retrieve the memory without compromising the retention of old experiences. The fraction of modified synapses can be further reduced in a smart way by changing synapses only when it is really necessary, i.e. when the post-synaptic neuron does not respond as desired. Finally we show that such a stochastic selection emerges naturally from spike driven synaptic dynamics which read noisy pre and post-synaptic neural activities. These activities can actually be generated by a chaotic system.