Lifetime prevalence estimates of major depression: An indirect estimation method and a quantification of recall bias

The measurement of lifetime prevalence of depression in cross-sectional surveys is biased by recall problems. We estimated it indirectly for two countries using modelling, and quantified the underestimation in the empirical estimate for one. A microsimulation model was used to generate population-based epidemiological measures of depression. We fitted the model to 1-and 12-month prevalence data from the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study (NEMESIS) and the Australian Adult Mental Health and Wellbeing Survey. The lowest proportion of cases ever having an episode in their life is 30% of men and 40% of women, for both countries. This corresponds to a lifetime prevalence of 20 and 30%, respectively, in a cross-sectional setting (aged 15-65). The NEMESIS data were 38% lower than these estimates. We conclude that modelling enabled us to estimate lifetime prevalence of depression indirectly. This method is useful in the absence of direct measurement, but also showed that direct estimates are underestimated by recall bias and by the cross-sectional setting.

Diagnosis of diabetes mellitus: case of different cutoff values: A data mining approach

Objective: An estimation of cut-off points for the diagnosis of diabetes mellitus (DM) based on individual risk factors. Methods: A subset of the 1991 Oman National Diabetes Survey is used, including all patients with a 2h post glucose load >= 200 mg/dl (278 subjects) and a control group of 286 subjects. All subjects previously diagnosed as diabetic and all subjects with missing data values were excluded. The data set was analyzed by use of the SPSS Clementine data mining system. Decision Tree Learners (C5 and CART) and a method for mining association rules (the GRI algorithm) are used. The fasting plasma glucose (FPG), age, sex, family history of diabetes and body mass index (BMI) are input risk factors (independent variables), while diabetes onset (the 2h post glucose load >= 200 mg/dl) is the output (dependent variable). All three techniques used were tested by use of crossvalidation (89.8%). Results: Rules produced for diabetes diagnosis are: A- GRI algorithm (1) FPG>=108.9 mg/dl, (2) FPG>=107.1 and age>39.5 years. B- CART decision trees: FPG >=110.7 mg/dl. C- The C5 decision tree learner: (1) FPG>=95.5 and 54, (2) FPG>=106 and 25.2 kg/m2. (3) FPG>=106 and =133 mg/dl. The three techniques produced rules which cover a significant number of cases (82%), with confidence between 74 and 100%. Conclusion: Our approach supports the suggestion that the present cut-off value of fasting plasma glucose (126 mg/dl) for the diagnosis of diabetes mellitus needs revision, and the individual risk factors such as age and BMI should be considered in defining the new cut-off value.

BOLSA FAMÍLIA: IMPORTANTE DETERMINANTE PARA A EDUCAÇÃO E CRESCIMENTO SOCIOECONÔMICO DO BRASIL

Esta dissertação trata de um tema relativamente novo, com literatura escassa, praticamente sem estudos teóricos que o abordem. Referenciais são encontrados em publicações feitas em seminários e palestras bem como em artigos e notas jornalísticas. Esta dissertação se trata de trabalho exploratório, analítico descritivo com base documental. O Programa Bolsa Família, tema central deste trabalho, é uma ferramenta para distribuição de renda que funciona de forma simples e tem sido efetiva para o atendimento de famílias que vivem abaixo da linha de pobreza. Ele é resultado da fusão de vários outros programas dispersos e com efetividade questionável Bolsa Escola, Auxílio Gás e Cartão Alimentação. O Programa Bolsa Família beneficia famílias em situação de pobreza com renda mensal de R$ 70 a R$ 140 per capita e em extrema pobreza com renda mensal abaixo de R$ 70 reais per capita. Também estabelece condicionalidades de educação e saúde. Atualmente, há cerca de 13 milhões de famílias inscritas no Programa Bolsa Família que cumprem as condições do Cadastro Único esta é praticamente a totalidade das famílias pobres segundo critérios do PNAD 2006 (Pesquisa Nacional de Domicílios). Na realidade, houve substancial injeção de recursos em áreas outrora relegadas ao acaso, criando novos consumidores, bem como empreendedores, além de atrair investimentos. Quanto à educação, nota-se que há redução do analfabetismo. Há um crescimento vegetativo do Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano (IDH) no qual o Brasil situa-se em 84⁰ lugar dentre as 187 nações controladas pelo PNUD (Programa das Nações Unidas para o Desenvolvimento) em 2011. As variáveis que compõem o índice crescem timidamente, destaca-se queda no item expectativa de escolaridade esperada das crianças em idade de ingresso na escola (no Brasil, aos seis anos), que caiu no período 2000-2011, esse fato pode indicar falha estrutural no ensino brasileiro. Esse estudo indica que há desenvolvimento socioeconômico em áreas carentes, particularmente na Região Nordeste. Observa-se também a reversão da migração que historicamente era de norte/nordeste a sudeste. Também nota-se redução da taxa de fecundidade das brasileiras, o que é vantajoso. O Brasil também está com a vantagem do Bônus demográfico , quando a população economicamente ativa supera a população dependente, o que é um excelente fator de crescimento por atrair investimentos. Apesar de melhorias observadas na década 2000-2010, elas ainda são insuficientes. Quanto ao desenvolvimento humano , o Brasil está muito distante das nações desenvolvidas, com IDH de 0,718, que cresceu na última década à taxa de 0,769% ao ano. Nesse ritmo, até alcançarmos o IDH norueguês -- primeiro colocado, ou o australiano -- segundo colocado, que é de 0,943 serão necessários 35/36 anos. Isso nos leva a pensar que, a não ser que o acaso nos ajude, o sonho de nos juntarmos aos primeiros é questionável. Com respeito ao Programa Bolsa Família, esse prova ser uma frente social para a eliminação da desigualdade, seus beneficiários eram classificados como pobres e extremamente pobres e foram resgatados.

Planning for cycling in the West Midlands

The issues involved in planning for pedal cyclists are examined with reference to the West Midlands County. Working with a local cycling campaign group, the researcher uses action research methods to investigate and influence the campaign. Development of cycle planning is traced through the literature, focusing on bicycle ownership, bicycle use and cycling policy. UK practice is contrasted with the integrated approach of other countries. An extensive bibliography is provided. Local authority cycle planning through the TPP process is systematically assessed over three years. This provides a context for the information regarding cycling in the West Midlands. Existing data is presented from the 1981 Census and local police road accident and bicycle theft records. The developing relationship between the local authority and the cycle campaign group is narrated in detail, explaining the problems that can beset efforts to improve conditions for cyclists. The researcher was closely involved in this interaction, particularly with policy and a major public inquiry. A survey of the Cycle Campaign Network indicates that the local group was not atypical. To provide information relevant to the local campaign and for effective local planning, a survey of 3,500 West Midlands residents was conducted using a novel combination of questionnaires and interviews. It shows that 1) Bicycle ownership and use is considerably higher than indicated by the 1978/9 National Travel Survey 2) Cycling is most import to certain disadvantaged sections of the community, particularly the young, those without access to a car and in the lower SEGs. The broader issues of transport policy are discussed, concluding that cycling is regarded as a marginal activity and that changes in general transport policy, land use planning and fiscal arrangements are necessary conditions for cycle planning to succeed. An integrated package of cycling measures involving engineering, education, enforcement and encouragement is also required. Recommendations are made concerning central government, local authorities and cycle campaign groups. Subjects for further research are identified.

A quest for helpful feedback to programming coursework

The 2011 National Student Survey (NSS) revealed that 40% of full-time students in England did not think that the feedback on their work has been helpful, even though 66% of these students agreed that the feedback was detailed and 62% of them agreed that the feedback has been prompt. Detailed feedback that is not considered helpful by students means a waste of tutors' time while students continue to struggle with their learning. What do students consider as helpful feedback? What are the qualities of helpful feedback? What are the preferred forms of feedback? How should tutors write feedback so that students will find it helpful? Can ICT help to improve the quality of feedback? In our ongoing search for answers to the above questions, we have trialled the use of a novel Internet application, called eCAF, to assess programming coursework from Engineering, Mathematics and Computing students and have collected their views on the feedback received through a survey. The survey reveals that most students prefer electronic feedback as given through eCAF, with verbal feedback ranked second and hand-written feedback ranked even lower. The survey also indicates that the feedback from some tutors is considered more helpful than others. We report on the detailed findings of the survey. By comparing the kinds of feedback given by each tutor who took part in the trial, we explore ways to improve the helpfulness of feedback on programming coursework in a bid to promote learning amongst engineering students.

Whither human capital? The woeful tale of transition to tertiary education in India

In this article, we examine the issue of high dropout rates in India which has adverse implications for human capital formation and hence for the country's long-term growth potential. Using the 2004–2005 National Sample Survey (NSS) employment–unemployment data, we estimate transition probabilities of moving from a number of different educational levels to higher educational levels using a sequential logit model. Our results suggest that the overall probability of reaching tertiary education is very low. Further, even by the woeful overall standards, women are significantly worse off, particularly in rural areas.

Does move to market have an impact on earnings gap across gender? Some evidence from India

We use Indian National Sample Survey employment–unemployment data for the urban sector for the years 1987 and 1999. Our results indicate that the gender wage gap had narrowed considerably between these two years, for all earnings deciles and for all education cohorts. The narrowing of the earnings gap can be attributed largely to a sharp increase in the returns to the labour market experience of women.

A quest for helpful feedback to programming coursework

The 2011 National Student Survey (NSS) revealed that 40% of full-time students in England do not think that the feedback on their work has been helpful, even though 66% of these students agreed that the feedback was detailed and 62% of them agreed that the feedback has been prompt. Detailed feedback that is not considered helpful by students means a waste of tutors' time while students continue to struggle with their learning. What do students consider as helpful feedback? What are the qualities of helpful feedback? What are the preferred forms of feedback? How should tutors write feedback so that students will find it helpful? Can ICT help to improve the quality of feedback? In our ongoing search for answers to the above questions, we have trialled the use of a novel online application (eCAF) to assess programming coursework from engineering, mathematics and computing students and, through a survey, have collected their views on the feedback received. The survey reveals that most students prefer electronic feedback as given through eCAF, with verbal feedback ranked second and hand-written feedback ranked even lower. The survey also indicates that the feedback from some tutors is considered more helpful than others. We report on the detailed findings of the survey. By comparing the kinds of feedback given by each tutor who took part in the trial, we explore ways to improve the helpfulness of feedback on programming coursework in a bid to promote learning amongst engineering students.

Motivating students to learn through good and helpful coursework feedback

The 2008 National Student Survey revealed that: 44% of full-time students in England did not think that the feedback on their work had been prompt nor did they agree that the feedback on their work helped them clarify things that they did not understand (HEFCE, 2008). Computer Science and Engineering & Technology have been amongst the poorest performers in this aspect as they ranked in the lower quartile (Surridge, 2007, p.32). Five years since the first NSS survey, assessment and feedback remains the biggest concern. Dissatisfaction in any aspect of studies demotivates students and can lead to disengagement and attrition. As the student number grows, the situation can only get worse if nothing is done about it. We have conducted a survey to investigate views on assessment and feedback from Engineering, Mathematics and Computing students. The survey aims at investigating the core issues of dissatisfaction in assessment and feedback and ways in which UK Engineering students can learn better through helpful feedback. The study focuses on collecting students' experiences with feedback received in their coursework, assignments and quizzes in Computing Science modules. The survey reveals the role of feedback in their learning. The results of the survey help to identify the forms of feedback that are considered to be helpful in learning and the time frame for timely feedback. We report on the findings of the survey. We also explore ways to improve assessment and feedback in a bid to better engage engineering students in their studies.

Impact of electric vehicles on GB electricity demand and associated benefits for system control

This paper investigates the impact that electric vehicle uptake will have on the national electricity demand of Great Britain. Data from the National Travel Survey, and the Coventry and Birmingham Low Emissions Demonstration (CABLED) are used to model an electrical demand profile in a future scenario of significant electric vehicle market penetration. These two methods allow comparison of how conventional cars are currently used, and the resulting electrical demand with simple substitution of energy source, with data showing how electric vehicles are actually being used at present. The report finds that electric vehicles are unlikely to significantly impact electricity demand in GB. The paper also aims to determine whether electric vehicles have the potential to provide ancillary services to the grid operator, and if so, the capacity for such services that would be available. Demand side management, frequency response and Short term Operating Reserve (STOR) are the services considered. The report finds that electric cars are unlikely to provide enough moveable demand peak shedding to be worthwhile. However, it is found that controlling vehicle charging would provide sufficient power control to viably act as frequency response for dispatch by the transmission system operator. This paper concludes that electric vehicles have technical potential to aid management of the transmission network without adding a significant demand burden. © 2013 IEEE.

Leadership and organisational outcomes in healthcare

This research examined to what extent and how leadership is related to organisational outcomes in healthcare. Based on the Job Demands-Resource model, a set of hypotheses was developed, which predicted that the effect of leadership on healthcare outcomes would be mediated by job design, employee engagement, work pressure, opportunity for involvement, and work-life balance. The research focused on the National Health Service (NHS) in England, and examined the relationships between senior leadership, first line supervisory leadership and outcomes. Three years of data (2008 – 2010) were gathered from four data sources: the NHS National Staff Survey, the NHS Inpatient Survey, the NHS Electronic Record, and the NHS Information Centre. The data were drawn from 390 healthcare organisations and over 285,000 staff annually for each of the three years. Parallel mediation regressions modelled both cross sectional and longitudinal designs. The findings revealed strong relationships between senior leadership and supervisor support respectively and job design, engagement, opportunity for involvement, and work-life balance, while senior leadership was also associated with work pressure. Except for job design, there were significant relationships between the mediating variables and the outcomes of patient satisfaction, employee job satisfaction, absenteeism, and turnover. Relative importance analysis showed that senior leadership accounted for significantly more variance in relationships with outcomes than supervisor support in the majority of models tested. Results are discussed in relation to theoretical and practical contributions. They suggest that leadership plays a significant role in organisational outcomes in healthcare and that previous research may have underestimated how influential senior leaders may be in relation to these outcomes. Moreover, the research suggests that leaders in healthcare may influence outcomes by the way they manage the work pressure, engagement, opportunity for involvement and work-life balance of those they lead.

Az élelmiszer-fogyasztás szerkezete és környezeti hatása Magyarországon (Analysing the structure and environmental impact of food consumption in hungary)

Egyre többen ismerik fel, hogy az élelmiszer-fogyasztás egészségügyi és környezeti hatása is jelentős. A különböző életstílusú társadalmi csoportok fogyasztási szerkezete eltérő lehet. Jelen tanulmány ezerfős, országos reprezentatív minta alapján vizsgálja az élelmiszer-fogyasztási szerkezet eltéréseit a nemek és különböző iskolázottságú fogyasztók körében. Jellemző fogyasztási klasztereket tár fel a fogyasztás szerkezete alapján. A fogyasztás szerkezeti és mennyiségi értékein túlmenően az ökológiai lábnyom indikátorával a fogyasztás környezetterhelését is számszerűsíti. _____ Concern about both health and environmental impacts of food consumption is increasing. Social groups with various lifestyles can have different food consumption structure. The present study analyses the differences in the food consumption structure among genders and educational groups based on a national, representative survey of 1000 adults. Food consumption clusters are identified based on food consumption structure. Beyond the analysis of food consumption and its structure, its environmental impact is quantified by the ecological footprint indicator.

Dinâmica industrial, emprego e pobreza no Brasil, uma abordagem alternativa

Between 2003 and 2014 Brazil has increased exports by 52%, increased the formal employment and paid employment by 19% and reduced multidimensional poverty by 42%. The purpose of this work is to test the hypothesis that there is a Brazilian Growth Virtuous Circle where these three variables would be connected in order to increase exports and reduce poverty through the salaries transfer of funds. The construction of the hypothesis is made for Export Industry through ideas Verdoorn, Kaldor and Thirlwall presenting the export industry as an engine of economic growth. To present employment acting directly on economic growth is used Wage Led Rowthorn approach. The Capability Approach of Amartya Sen is used to understand the Multidimensional Poverty. The hypothesis was tested using data from the National Household Survey and Aliceweb between 2003 and 2014 with the use of the Generalized Method of Moments and the generation of elasticities between export and employment, employment and poverty, and export and poverty.

Is socioeconomic position early in life associated with physical activity during adulthood following the accumulation of risk model with additive effects?

L'activité physique améliore la santé, mais seulement 4.8% des Canadiens atteignent le niveau recommandé. La position socio-économique est un des déterminants de l'activité physique les plus importants. Elle est associée à l’activité physique de manière transversale à l’adolescence et à l’âge adulte. Cette thèse a tenté de déterminer s'il y a une association à long terme entre la position socio-économique au début du parcours de vie et l’activité physique à l’âge adulte. S'il y en avait une, un deuxième objectif était de déterminer quel modèle théorique en épidémiologie des parcours de vie décrivait le mieux sa forme. Cette thèse comprend trois articles: une recension systématique et deux recherches originales. Dans la recension systématique, des recherches ont été faites dans Medline et EMBASE pour trouver les études ayant mesuré la position socio-économique avant l'âge de 18 ans et l'activité physique à ≥18 ans. Dans les deux recherches originales, la modélisation par équations structurelles a été utilisée pour comparer trois modèles alternatifs en épidémiologie des parcours de vie: le modèle d’accumulation de risque avec effets additifs, le modèle d’accumulation de risque avec effet déclenché et le modèle de période critique. Ces modèles ont été comparés dans deux cohortes prospectives représentatives à l'échelle nationale: la 1970 British birth cohort (n=16,571; première recherche) et l’Enquête longitudinale nationale sur les enfants et les jeunes (n=16,903; deuxième recherche). Dans la recension systématique, 10 619 articles ont été passés en revue par deux chercheurs indépendants et 42 ont été retenus. Pour le résultat «activité physique» (tous types et mesures confondus), une association significative avec la position socio-économique durant l’enfance fut trouvée dans 26/42 études (61,9%). Quand seulement l’activité physique durant les loisirs a été considérée, une association significative fut trouvée dans 21/31 études (67,7%). Dans un sous-échantillon de 21 études ayant une méthodologie plus forte, les proportions d’études ayant trouvé une association furent plus hautes : 15/21 (71,4%) pour tous les types et toutes les mesures d’activité physique et 12/15 (80%) pour l’activité physique de loisir seulement. Dans notre première recherche originale sur les données de la British birth cohort, pour la classe sociale, nous avons trouvé que le modèle d’accumulation de risque avec effets additifs s’est ajusté le mieux chez les hommes et les femmes pour l’activité physique de loisir, au travail et durant les transports. Dans notre deuxième recherche originale sur les données canadiennes sur l'activité physique de loisir, nous avons trouvé que chez les hommes, le modèle de période critique s’est ajusté le mieux aux données pour le niveau d’éducation et le revenu, alors que chez les femmes, le modèle d’accumulation de risque avec effets additifs s’est ajusté le mieux pour le revenu, tandis que le niveau d’éducation ne s’est ajusté à aucun des modèles testés. En conclusion, notre recension systématique indique que la position socio-économique au début du parcours de vie est associée à la pratique d'activité physique à l'âge adulte. Les résultats de nos deux recherches originales suggèrent un patron d’associations le mieux représenté par le modèle d’accumulation de risque avec effets additifs.

Student Loans : the Empirical Record (Working Paper 6)

Student loan programmes have been the target of a good deal of attention in recent years and one important set of concerns has focussed on the levels of borrowing and the associated debt loads. This paper presents the results of an empirical investigation of borrowing and repayment patterns of four recent cohorts of post-secondary graduates based on the National Graduates Survey (NGS) databases. The paper should be relevant to those interested in access to post-secondary education and the well-being of students, the financing of the higher education more generally, and a range of related issues.