Modelling of urban sensible heat flux at multiple spatial scales : a demonstration using airborne hyperspectral imagery of Shanghai and a temperature–emissivity separation approach

Urbanization related alterations to the surface energy balance impact urban warming (‘heat islands’), the growth of the boundary layer, and many other biophysical processes. Traditionally, in situ heat flux measures have been used to quantify such processes, but these typically represent only a small local-scale area within the heterogeneous urban environment. For this reason, remote sensing approaches are very attractive for elucidating more spatially representative information. Here we use hyperspectral imagery from a new airborne sensor, the Operative Modular Imaging Spectrometer (OMIS), along with a survey map and meteorological data, to derive the land cover information and surface parameters required to map spatial variations in turbulent sensible heat flux (QH). The results from two spatially-explicit flux retrieval methods which use contrasting approaches and, to a large degree, different input data are compared for a central urban area of Shanghai, China: (1) the Local-scale Urban Meteorological Parameterization Scheme (LUMPS) and (2) an Aerodynamic Resistance Method (ARM). Sensible heat fluxes are determined at the full 6 m spatial resolution of the OMIS sensor, and at lower resolutions via pixel aggregation and spatial averaging. At the 6 m spatial resolution, the sensible heat flux of rooftop dominated pixels exceeds that of roads, water and vegetated areas, with values peaking at ∼ 350 W m− 2, whilst the storage heat flux is greatest for road dominated pixels (peaking at around 420 W m− 2). We investigate the use of both OMIS-derived land surface temperatures made using a Temperature–Emissivity Separation (TES) approach, and land surface temperatures estimated from air temperature measures. Sensible heat flux differences from the two approaches over the entire 2 × 2 km study area are less than 30 W m− 2, suggesting that methods employing either strategy maybe practica1 when operated using low spatial resolution (e.g. 1 km) data. Due to the differing methodologies, direct comparisons between results obtained with the LUMPS and ARM methods are most sensibly made at reduced spatial scales. At 30 m spatial resolution, both approaches produce similar results, with the smallest difference being less than 15 W m− 2 in mean QH averaged over the entire study area. This is encouraging given the differing architecture and data requirements of the LUMPS and ARM methods. Furthermore, in terms of mean study QH, the results obtained by averaging the original 6 m spatial resolution LUMPS-derived QH values to 30 and 90 m spatial resolution are within ∼ 5 W m− 2 of those derived from averaging the original surface parameter maps prior to input into LUMPS, suggesting that that use of much lower spatial resolution spaceborne imagery data, for example from Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) is likely to be a practical solution for heat flux determination in urban areas.

Extending the Lincoln–Petersen estimator for multiple identifications in one source

The Lincoln–Petersen estimator is one of the most popular estimators used in capture–recapture studies. It was developed for a sampling situation in which two sources independently identify members of a target population. For each of the two sources, it is determined if a unit of the target population is identified or not. This leads to a 2 × 2 table with frequencies f11, f10, f01, f00 indicating the number of units identified by both sources, by the first but not the second source, by the second but not the first source and not identified by any of the two sources, respectively. However, f00 is unobserved so that the 2 × 2 table is incomplete and the Lincoln–Petersen estimator provides an estimate for f00. In this paper, we consider a generalization of this situation for which one source provides not only a binary identification outcome but also a count outcome of how many times a unit has been identified. Using a truncated Poisson count model, truncating multiple identifications larger than two, we propose a maximum likelihood estimator of the Poisson parameter and, ultimately, of the population size. This estimator shows benefits, in comparison with Lincoln–Petersen’s, in terms of bias and efficiency. It is possible to test the homogeneity assumption that is not testable in the Lincoln–Petersen framework. The approach is applied to surveillance data on syphilis from Izmir, Turkey.

Using non-homogeneous Poisson models with multiple change-points to estimate the number of ozone exceedances in Mexico City

In this paper, we consider some non-homogeneous Poisson models to estimate the probability that an air quality standard is exceeded a given number of times in a time interval of interest. We assume that the number of exceedances occurs according to a non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP). This Poisson process has rate function lambda(t), t >= 0, which depends on some parameters that must be estimated. We take into account two cases of rate functions: the Weibull and the Goel-Okumoto. We consider models with and without change-points. When the presence of change-points is assumed, we may have the presence of either one, two or three change-points, depending of the data set. The parameters of the rate functions are estimated using a Gibbs sampling algorithm. Results are applied to ozone data provided by the Mexico City monitoring network. In a first instance, we assume that there are no change-points present. Depending on the adjustment of the model, we assume the presence of either one, two or three change-points. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Methods of Estimation in Multiple Linear Regression: Application to Clinical Data

Nesse artigo, tem-se o interesse em avaliar diferentes estratégias de estimação de parâmetros para um modelo de regressão linear múltipla. Para a estimação dos parâmetros do modelo foram utilizados dados de um ensaio clínico em que o interesse foi verificar se o ensaio mecânico da propriedade de força máxima (EM-FM) está associada com a massa femoral, com o diâmetro femoral e com o grupo experimental de ratas ovariectomizadas da raça Rattus norvegicus albinus, variedade Wistar. Para a estimação dos parâmetros do modelo serão comparadas três metodologias: a metodologia clássica, baseada no método dos mínimos quadrados; a metodologia Bayesiana, baseada no teorema de Bayes; e o método Bootstrap, baseado em processos de reamostragem.

Health and quality of care from older peoples' and formal caregivers' perspective

Aim: The overall aim of this thesis was to gain a deeper understanding of older people's view of health and care while dependent on community care. Furthermore to describe and compare formal caregivers' perceptions of quality of care, working conditions, competence, general health, and factors associated with quality of care from the caregivers' perspective. Method: Qualitative interviews were conducted with 19 older people in community care who were asked to describe what health and ill health((I), good and bad care meant for them (II). Data were analyzed using content analysis (I) and a phenomenological analysis (II). The formal caregivers; 70 nursing assistants (NAs) 163 enrolled nurses (ENs) and 198 registered nurses (RNs), answered a questionnaire consisting of five instruments: quality of care from the patient's perspective modified to formal caregivers, creative climate questionnaire, stress of conscience, health index, sense of coherence and items on education and competence (III). Statistical analyses were performed containing descriptive statistics, and comparisons between the occupational groups were made using Kruskal-Wallis ANOVA, Mann-Whitney U-test and Pearson's Chi-square test (III). Pearson's  product moment correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis were performed studying the associations between organizational climate, stress of conscience, competence, general health and sense of coherence with quality of care (IV). Results: The older people's health and well-being were related to their own ability to adapt to and compensate for their disabilities and was described as negative and positive poles of autonomy vs. dependence, togetherness vs. being an onlooker, security vs. insecurity and tranquility vs. disturbance (I).  The meaning of good care (II) was that the formal caregivers respected the older people as unique individuals, having the opportunity to live their lives as usual and receiving a safe and secure care. Good care could be experienced when the formal caregivers had adequate knowledge and competence in caring for older people, adequate time and continuity in the care organization (II). Formal caregivers reported higher perceived quality of care in the dimensions medical-technical competence and physical-technical conditions than in identity-oriented approach and socio-cultural atmosphere (III). In the organizational climate three of the dimensions were close to the value of a creative climate and in seven near a stagnant climate. The formal caregivers reported low rate of stress of conscience. The RNs reported to a higher degree than the NAs/ENs a need to gain more knowledge, but the NAs and the ENs more often received training during working hours. The RNs reported lower emotional well-being than the NAs/ENs (III). The formal caregivers' occupation, organizational climate and stress of conscience were associated with perceived quality of care (IV). Implications: The formal caregivers should have an awareness of the importance of kindness and respect, supporting the older people to retain control over their lives. The nursing managers should employ highly competent and adequate numbers of skilled formal caregivers, organize formal caregivers having round the clock continuity. Improvements of organizational climate and stress of conscience are of importance for good quality of care.

Amino acid sequence and crystal structure of BaP1, a metalloproteinase from Bothrops asper snake venom that exerts multiple tissue-damaging activities

BaP1 is a 22.7-kD P-I-type zinc-dependent metalloproteinase isolated from the venom of the snake Bothrops asper, a medically relevant species in Central America. This enzyme exerts multiple tissue-damaging activities, including hemorrhage, myonecrosis, dermonecrosis, blistering, and edema. BaP1 is a single chain of 202 amino acids that shows highest sequence identity with metalloproteinases isolated front the venoms of snakes of the subfamily Crotalinae. It has six Cys residues involved in three disulfide bridges (Cys 117-Cys 197, Cys 159-Cys 181, Cys 157-Cys 164). It has the consensus sequence H(142)E(143)XXH(146)XXGXXH(152), as well as the sequence C164I165M166, which characterize the metzincin superfamily of metalloproteinases. The active-site cleft separates a major subdomain (residues 1-152), comprising four a-helices and a five-stranded beta-sheet, from the minor subdomain, which is formed by a single a-helix and several loops. The catalytic zinc ion is coordinated by the N-epsilon2 nitrogen atoms of His 142, His 146, and His 152, in addition to a solvent water molecule, which in turn is bound to Glu 143. Several conserved residues contribute to the formation of the hydrophobic pocket, and Met 166 serves as a hydrophobic base for the active-site groups. Sequence and structural comparisons of hemorrhagic and nonhemorrhagic P-I metalloproteinases from snake venoms revealed differences in several regions. In particular, the loop comprising residues 153 to 176 has marked structural differences between metalloproteinases with very different hemorrhagic activities. Because this region lies in close proximity to the active-site microenvironment, it may influence the interaction of these enzymes with physiologically relevant substrates in the extracellular matrix.

Statistics and kinetics of single-molecule electron transfer dynamics in complex environments: A simulation model study

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Multiple events of horizontal transfer of the Minos transposable element between Drosophila species

In this study the Minos element was analyzed in 26 species of the repleta group and seven species of the saltans group of the genus Drosophila. The PCR and Southern blot analysis showed a wide occurrence of the Minos transposable element among species of the repleta and the saltans groups and also a low number of insertions in both genomes. Three different analyses, nucleotide divergence, historical associations, and comparisons between substitution rates (d(N) and d(S)) of Minos and Adh host gene sequences, suggest the occurrence of horizontal transfer between repleta and saltans species. These data reinforce and extend the Arca and Savakis [Genetica 108 (2000) 263] results and suggest five events of horizontal transfer to explain the present Minos distribution: between D. saltans and the ancestor of the mulleri and the mojavensis clusters; between D. hydei and the ancestor of the mulleri and the mojavensis clusters; between D. mojavensis and D. aldrichi; between D. buzzatii and D. serido; and between D. spenceri and D. emarginata. An alternative explanation would be that repeated events of horizontal transfer involving D. hydei, which is a cosmopolitan species that diverged from the others repleta species as long as 14 Mya, could have spread Minos within the repleta group and to D. saltans. The data presented in this article support a model in which distribution of Minos transposon among Drosophila species is determined by horizontal transmission balanced by vertical inactivation and extinction. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Surface electromyography of facial muscles during natural and artificial feeding of infants

Objective: To measure and compare the activity of the masseter, temporalis and buccinator muscles in different infant feeding methods. Method: Cross-sectional study of 60 full-term infants with no intercurrent diseases, aged between two and three months, classified into the following groups: 1) exclusive breastfeeding; 2) breastfeeding plus bottle-feeding; and 3) exclusive breastfeeding plus cup feeding. Surface electromyography was performed during infant feeding. The Krushal-Wallis test was used, complemented by multiple paired comparisons of the groups. A 5% significance level was chosen for the tests. Results: Statistically higher results were verified in the breastfeeding group in relation to the bottle-feeding one, both in the range of movement and the mean contraction of the masseter. With regard to the temporalis muscle, statistically higher results were found in the breastfeeding group comparatively to the bottle-feeding one. As to the buccinator muscle, statistically higher results were observed in the breastfeeding group in relation to the bottle-feeding one, although in this case, the difference concerned only the range of contraction. Conclusion: The similarities between the muscle activity in the breastfeeding and in the cup-feeding groups suggests that cup-feeding can be used as an alternative infant feeding method, being better than bottle-feeding, due to the hyperactivity of the buccinator muscle, which could result in changes to the structural growth and development of the stomatognathic system functions. Copyright © 2006 by Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria.

Papel evolutivo da dança: seleção de parceiros entre universitários

Pós-graduação em Psicologia do Desenvolvimento e Aprendizagem - FC

Trends in aortic aneurysm- and dissection-related mortality in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, 1985-2009: multiple-cause-of-death analysis

Background: Aortic aneurysm and dissection are important causes of death in older people. Ruptured aneurysms show catastrophic fatality rates reaching near 80%. Few population-based mortality studies have been published in the world and none in Brazil. The objective of the present study was to use multiple-cause-of-death methodology in the analysis of mortality trends related to aortic aneurysm and dissection in the state of Sao Paulo, between 1985 and 2009. Methods: We analyzed mortality data from the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System, selecting all death certificates on which aortic aneurysm and dissection were listed as a cause-of-death. The variables sex, age, season of the year, and underlying, associated or total mentions of causes of death were studied using standardized mortality rates, proportions and historical trends. Statistical analyses were performed by chi-square goodness-of-fit and H Kruskal-Wallis tests, and variance analysis. The joinpoint regression model was used to evaluate changes in age-standardized rates trends. A p value less than 0.05 was regarded as significant. Results: Over a 25-year period, there were 42,615 deaths related to aortic aneurysm and dissection, of which 36,088 (84.7%) were identified as underlying cause and 6,527 (15.3%) as an associated cause-of-death. Dissection and ruptured aneurysms were considered as an underlying cause of death in 93% of the deaths. For the entire period, a significant increased trend of age-standardized death rates was observed in men and women, while certain non-significant decreases occurred from 1996/2004 until 2009. Abdominal aortic aneurysms and aortic dissections prevailed among men and aortic dissections and aortic aneurysms of unspecified site among women. In 1985 and 2009 death rates ratios of men to women were respectively 2.86 and 2.19, corresponding to a difference decrease between rates of 23.4%. For aortic dissection, ruptured and non-ruptured aneurysms, the overall mean ages at death were, respectively, 63.2, 68.4 and 71.6 years; while, as the underlying cause, the main associated causes of death were as follows: hemorrhages (in 43.8%/40.5%/13.9%); hypertensive diseases (in 49.2%/22.43%/24.5%) and atherosclerosis (in 14.8%/25.5%/15.3%); and, as associated causes, their principal overall underlying causes of death were diseases of the circulatory (55.7%), and respiratory (13.8%) systems and neoplasms (7.8%). A significant seasonal variation, with highest frequency in winter, occurred in deaths identified as underlying cause for aortic dissection, ruptured and non-ruptured aneurysms. Conclusions: This study introduces the methodology of multiple-causes-of-death to enhance epidemiologic knowledge of aortic aneurysm and dissection in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The results presented confer light to the importance of mortality statistics and the need for epidemiologic studies to understand unique trends in our own population.

A multiple time scale survival model with a cure fraction

Many recent survival studies propose modeling data with a cure fraction, i.e., data in which part of the population is not susceptible to the event of interest. This event may occur more than once for the same individual (recurrent event). We then have a scenario of recurrent event data in the presence of a cure fraction, which may appear in various areas such as oncology, finance, industries, among others. This paper proposes a multiple time scale survival model to analyze recurrent events using a cure fraction. The objective is analyzing the efficiency of certain interventions so that the studied event will not happen again in terms of covariates and censoring. All estimates were obtained using a sampling-based approach, which allows information to be input beforehand with lower computational effort. Simulations were done based on a clinical scenario in order to observe some frequentist properties of the estimation procedure in the presence of small and moderate sample sizes. An application of a well-known set of real mammary tumor data is provided.

A bayesian network meta-analysis on comparisons of enamel matrix derivatives, guided tissue regeneration and their combination therapies

Aims: Guided tissue regeneration (GTR) and enamel matrix derivatives (EMD) are two popular regenerative treatments for periodontal infrabony lesions. Both have been used in conjunction with other regenerative materials. We conducted a Bayesian network meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials on treatment effects of GTR, EMD and their combination therapies. Material and Methods: A systematic literature search was conducted using the Medline, EMBASE, LILACS and CENTRAL databases up to and including June 2011. Treatment outcomes were changes in probing pocket depth (PPD), clinical attachment level (CAL) and infrabony defect depth. Different types of bone grafts were treated as one group and so were barrier membranes. Results: A total of 53 studies were included in this review, and we found small differences between regenerative therapies which were non-significant statistically and clinically. GTR and GTR-related combination therapies achieved greater PPD reduction than EMD and EMD-related combination therapies. Combination therapies achieved slightly greater CAL gain than the use of EMD or GTR alone. GTR with BG achieved greatest defect fill. Conclusion: Combination therapies performed better than single therapies, but the additional benefits were small. Bayesian network meta-analysis is a promising technique to compare multiple treatments. Further analysis of methodological characteristics will be required prior to clinical recommendations.

Trends in aortic aneurysm- and dissection-related mortality in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, 1985–2009: multiple-cause-of-death analysis

Background: Aortic aneurysm and dissection are important causes of death in older people. Ruptured aneurysms show catastrophic fatality rates reaching near 80%. Few population-based mortality studies have been published in the world and none in Brazil. The objective of the present study was to use multiple-cause-of-death methodology in the analysis of mortality trends related to aortic aneurysm and dissection in the state of Sao Paulo, between 1985 and 2009. Methods: We analyzed mortality data from the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System, selecting all death certificates on which aortic aneurysm and dissection were listed as a cause-of-death. The variables sex, age, season of the year, and underlying, associated or total mentions of causes of death were studied using standardized mortality rates, proportions and historical trends. Statistical analyses were performed by chi-square goodness-of-fit and H Kruskal-Wallis tests, and variance analysis. The joinpoint regression model was used to evaluate changes in age-standardized rates trends. A p value less than 0.05 was regarded as significant. Results: Over a 25-year period, there were 42,615 deaths related to aortic aneurysm and dissection, of which 36,088 (84.7%) were identified as underlying cause and 6,527 (15.3%) as an associated cause-of-death. Dissection and ruptured aneurysms were considered as an underlying cause of death in 93% of the deaths. For the entire period, a significant increased trend of age-standardized death rates was observed in men and women, while certain non-significant decreases occurred from 1996/2004 until 2009. Abdominal aortic aneurysms and aortic dissections prevailed among men and aortic dissections and aortic aneurysms of unspecified site among women. In 1985 and 2009 death rates ratios of men to women were respectively 2.86 and 2.19, corresponding to a difference decrease between rates of 23.4%. For aortic dissection, ruptured and non-ruptured aneurysms, the overall mean ages at death were, respectively, 63.2, 68.4 and 71.6 years; while, as the underlying cause, the main associated causes of death were as follows: hemorrhages (in 43.8%/40.5%/13.9%); hypertensive diseases (in 49.2%/22.43%/24.5%) and atherosclerosis (in 14.8%/25.5%/15.3%); and, as associated causes, their principal overall underlying causes of death were diseases of the circulatory (55.7%), and respiratory (13.8%) systems and neoplasms (7.8%). A significant seasonal variation, with highest frequency in winter, occurred in deaths identified as underlying cause for aortic dissection, ruptured and non-ruptured aneurysms. Conclusions: This study introduces the methodology of multiple-causes-of-death to enhance epidemiologic knowledge of aortic aneurysm and dissection in São Paulo, Brazil. The results presented confer light to the importance of mortality statistics and the need for epidemiologic studies to understand unique trends in our own population.

Longitudinal evolution of cognitive functions in patients with multiple system atrophy: a prospective study

Introduction and Background: Multiple system atrophy (MSA) is a sporadic, adult-onset, progressive neurodegenerative disease characterized clinically by parkinsonism, cerebellar ataxia, and autonomic failure. We investigated cognitive functions longitudinally in a group of probable MSA patients, matching data with sleep parameters. Patients and Methods: 10 patients (7m/3f) underwent a detailed interview, a general and neurological examination, laboratory exams, MRI scans, a cardiovascular reflexes study, a battery of neuropsychological tests, and video-polysomnographic recording (VPSG). Patients were revaluated (T1) a mean of 16±5 (range: 12-28) months after the initial evaluation (T0). At T1, the neuropsychological assessment and VPSG were repeated. Results: The mean patient age was 57.8±6.4 years (range: 47-64) with a mean age at disease onset of 53.2±7.1 years (range: 43-61) and symptoms duration at T0 of 60±48 months (range: 12-144). At T0, 7 patients showed no cognitive deficits while 3 patients showed isolated cognitive deficits. At T1, 1 patient worsened developing multiple cognitive deficits from a normal condition. At T0 and T1, sleep efficiency was reduced, REM latency increased, NREM sleep stages 1-2 slightly increased. Comparisons between T1 and T0 showed a significant worsening in two tests of attention and no significant differences of VPSG parameters. No correlation was found between neuropsychological results and VPSG findings or RBD duration. Discussion and Conclusions: The majority of our patients do not show any cognitive deficits at T0 and T1, while isolated cognitive deficits are present in the remaining patients. Attention is the cognitive function which significantly worsened. Our data confirm the previous findings concerning the prevalence, type and the evolution of cognitive deficits in MSA. Regarding the developing of a condition of dementia, our data did not show a clear-cut diagnosis of dementia. We confirm a mild alteration of sleep structure. RBD duration does not correlate with neuropsychological findings.