A simple model of multiple equilibria based on risk

This paper shows how risk may aggravate fluctuations in economies with imperfect insurance and multiple assets. A two period job matching model is studied, in which risk averse agents act both as workers and as entrepreneurs. They choose between two types of investment: one type is riskless, while the other is a risky activity that creates jobs.Equilibrium is unique under full insurance. If investment is fully insured but unemployment risk is uninsured, then precautionary saving behavior dampens output fluctuations. However, if both investment and employment are uninsured, then an increase in unemployment gives agents an incentive to shift investment away from the risky asset, further increasing unemployment. This positive feedback may lead to multiple Pareto ranked equilibria. An overlapping generations version of the model may exhibit poverty traps or persistent multiplicity. Greater insurance is doubly beneficial in this context since it can both prevent multiplicity and promote risky investment.

Ignoring information in binary choice with continuous variables: When is less 'more'?

When can a single variable be more accurate in binary choice than multiple sources of information? We derive analytically the probability that a single variable (SV) will correctly predict one of two choices when both criterion and predictor are continuous variables. We further provide analogous derivations for multiple regression (MR) and equal weighting (EW) and specify the conditions under which the models differ in expected predictive ability. Key factors include variability in cue validities, intercorrelation between predictors, and the ratio of predictors to observations in MR. Theory and simulations are used to illustrate the differential effects of these factors. Results directly address why and when one-reason decision making can be more effective than analyses that use more information. We thus provide analytical backing to intriguing empirical results that, to date, have lacked theoretical justification. There are predictable conditions for which one should expect less to be more.

Traitement de tla sclérose en plaques: nouveautés et complications [New treatment options in multiple sclerosis and their complications].

A new therapeutic era opened for multiple sclerosis (MS) with the appearance of molecules given p.o. and/or molecules with greater efficiency. Early diagnosis is critical, as the time and the choice of therapeutic intervention. The initiation of treatments must be personalized, including the risks associated with MS and those potentially related to the treatment chosen, answering the question <Who, when and how to treat?>. Monitoring tools that allow to objectively evaluate: I) MS activity and aggressiveness for each patient and 2) the safety of treatments and their risks of complications, must be further investigated.

Altered decision-making in multiple sclerosis: a sign of impaired emotional reactivity?

We assessed decision-making capacity and emotional reactivity in 20 patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) and in 16 healthy subjects using the Gambling Task (GT), a model of real-life decision making, and the skin conductance response (SCR). Demographic, neurological, affective, and cognitive parameters were analyzed in MS patients for their effect on decision-making performance. MS patients persisted longer (slope, -3.6%) than the comparison group (slope, -6.4%) in making disadvantageous choices as the GT progressed (p < 0.001), suggesting significant slower learning in MS. Patients with higher Expanded Disability Status Scale scores (EDSS >2.0) showed a different pattern of impairment in the learning process compared with patients with lower functional impairment (EDSS </=2.0). This slower learning was associated with impaired emotional reactivity (anticipatory SCR 3.9 vs 6.1 microSiemens [microS] for patients vs the comparison group, p < 0.0001; post-choice SCR 3.9 vs 6.2 microS, p < 0.0001), but not with executive dysfunction. Impaired emotional dimensions of behavior (assessed using the Dysexecutive Questionnaire, p < 0.002) also correlated with slower learning. Given the considerable consequences that impaired decision making can have on daily life, we suggest that this factor may contribute to handicap and altered quality of life secondary to MS and is dependent on emotional experience. Ann Neurol 2004.

The M-Coffee web server: a meta-method for computing multiple sequence alignments by combining alternative alignment methods.

The M-Coffee server is a web server that makes it possible to compute multiple sequence alignments (MSAs) by running several MSA methods and combining their output into one single model. This allows the user to simultaneously run all his methods of choice without having to arbitrarily choose one of them. The MSA is delivered along with a local estimation of its consistency with the individual MSAs it was derived from. The computation of the consensus multiple alignment is carried out using a special mode of the T-Coffee package [Notredame, Higgins and Heringa (T-Coffee: a novel method for fast and accurate multiple sequence alignment. J. Mol. Biol. 2000; 302: 205-217); Wallace, O'Sullivan, Higgins and Notredame (M-Coffee: combining multiple sequence alignment methods with T-Coffee. Nucleic Acids Res. 2006; 34: 1692-1699)] Given a set of sequences (DNA or proteins) in FASTA format, M-Coffee delivers a multiple alignment in the most common formats. M-Coffee is a freeware open source package distributed under a GPL license and it is available either as a standalone package or as a web service from www.tcoffee.org.

Simultaneous measurement of regional cerebral blood flow by perfusion CT and stable xenon CT: a validation study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Knowledge of cerebral blood flow (CBF) alterations in cases of acute stroke could be valuable in the early management of these cases. Among imaging techniques affording evaluation of cerebral perfusion, perfusion CT studies involve sequential acquisition of cerebral CT sections obtained in an axial mode during the IV administration of iodinated contrast material. They are thus very easy to perform in emergency settings. Perfusion CT values of CBF have proved to be accurate in animals, and perfusion CT affords plausible values in humans. The purpose of this study was to validate perfusion CT studies of CBF by comparison with the results provided by stable xenon CT, which have been reported to be accurate, and to evaluate acquisition and processing modalities of CT data, notably the possible deconvolution methods and the selection of the reference artery. METHODS: Twelve stable xenon CT and perfusion CT cerebral examinations were performed within an interval of a few minutes in patients with various cerebrovascular diseases. CBF maps were obtained from perfusion CT data by deconvolution using singular value decomposition and least mean square methods. The CBF were compared with the stable xenon CT results in multiple regions of interest through linear regression analysis and bilateral t tests for matched variables. RESULTS: Linear regression analysis showed good correlation between perfusion CT and stable xenon CT CBF values (singular value decomposition method: R(2) = 0.79, slope = 0.87; least mean square method: R(2) = 0.67, slope = 0.83). Bilateral t tests for matched variables did not identify a significant difference between the two imaging methods (P >.1). Both deconvolution methods were equivalent (P >.1). The choice of the reference artery is a major concern and has a strong influence on the final perfusion CT CBF map. CONCLUSION: Perfusion CT studies of CBF achieved with adequate acquisition parameters and processing lead to accurate and reliable results.

Multiple sclerosis decreases explicit counterfactual processing and risk taking in decision making.

INTRODUCTION: Deficits in decision making (DM) are commonly associated with prefrontal cortical damage, but may occur with multiple sclerosis (MS). There are no data concerning the impact of MS on tasks evaluating DM under explicit risk, where different emotional and cognitive components can be distinguished. METHODS: We assessed 72 relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) patients with mild to moderate disease and 38 healthy controls in two DM tasks involving risk with explicit rules: (1) The Wheel of Fortune (WOF), which probes the anticipated affects of decisions outcomes on future choices; and (2) The Cambridge Gamble Task (CGT) which measures risk taking. Participants also underwent a neuropsychological and emotional assessment, and skin conductance responses (SCRs) were recorded. RESULTS: In the WOF, RRMS patients showed deficits in integrating positive counterfactual information (p<0.005) and greater risk aversion (p<0.001). They reported less negative affect than controls (disappointment: p = 0.007; regret: p = 0.01), although their implicit emotional reactions as measured by post-choice SCRs did not differ. In the CGT, RRMS patients differed from controls in quality of DM (p = 0.01) and deliberation time (p = 0.0002), the latter difference being correlated with attention scores. Such changes did not result in overall decreases in performance (total gains). CONCLUSIONS: The quality of DM under risk was modified by MS in both tasks. The reduction in the expression of disappointment coexisted with an increased risk aversion in the WOF and alexithymia features. These concomitant emotional alterations may have implications for better understanding the components of explicit DM and for the clinical support of MS patients.

Multiple supernumerary teeth not associated with complex syndromes: a retrospective study

Objectives: To determine the epidemiology and describe the clinical and radiographic characteristics, the type of treatment, and the possible delayed appearance of new supernumerary teeth in patients with non-syndromic multiple hyperdontia. Patients and Methods: We conducted a small retrospective observational study of 8 patients diagnosed with nonsyndromic multiple hyperdontia. Multiple hyperdontia not associated to complex syndromes was defined as apparently generally healthy patients with one or more supernumerary teeth in two or more areas. Results: The average patient age was 16.23 years; males predominated (3:1). Multiple hyperodontia with a minimum of 2 and a maximum of 9 supernumerary teeth was found (total: 34 mean: 4.25). The most frequent location was the upper jaw (76.47%). Eumorphic teeth were seen at lower premolar level, while the rest were all heteromorphic. There was altered eruption of the contiguous teeth of 4 of the impacted supernumerary teeth all the rest being asymptomatic. Extraction was the treatment in all patients, and in one of them the delayed appearance of 4 supernumerary teeth was detected. Conclusions: Multiple hyperodontia rarely occurs without being associated with complex syndromes. Prophylactic surgical removal of the supernumerary teeth is generally the treatment of choice.

Multicontrast MRI Quantification of Focal Inflammation and Degeneration in Multiple Sclerosis.

INTRODUCTION: Local microstructural pathology in multiple sclerosis patients might influence their clinical performance. This study applied multicontrast MRI to quantify inflammation and neurodegeneration in MS lesions. We explored the impact of MRI-based lesion pathology in cognition and disability. METHODS: 36 relapsing-remitting MS subjects and 18 healthy controls underwent neurological, cognitive, behavioural examinations and 3 T MRI including (i) fluid attenuated inversion recovery, double inversion recovery, and magnetization-prepared gradient echo for lesion count; (ii) T1, T2, and T2(*) relaxometry and magnetisation transfer imaging for lesion tissue characterization. Lesions were classified according to the extent of inflammation/neurodegeneration. A generalized linear model assessed the contribution of lesion groups to clinical performances. RESULTS: Four lesion groups were identified and characterized by (1) absence of significant alterations, (2) prevalent inflammation, (3) concomitant inflammation and microdegeneration, and (4) prevalent tissue loss. Groups 1, 3, 4 correlated with general disability (Adj-R (2) = 0.6; P = 0.0005), executive function (Adj-R (2) = 0.5; P = 0.004), verbal memory (Adj-R (2) = 0.4; P = 0.02), and attention (Adj-R (2) = 0.5; P = 0.002). CONCLUSION: Multicontrast MRI provides a new approach to infer in vivo histopathology of plaques. Our results support evidence that neurodegeneration is the major determinant of patients' disability and cognitive dysfunction.

Determinants of antithrombotic choice for patent foramen ovale in cryptogenic stroke.

OBJECTIVE: We examined the influence of clinical, radiologic, and echocardiographic characteristics on antithrombotic choice in patients with cryptogenic stroke (CS) and patent foramen ovale (PFO), hypothesizing that features suggestive of paradoxical embolism might lead to greater use of anticoagulation. METHODS: The Risk of Paradoxical Embolism Study combined 12 databases to create the largest dataset of patients with CS and known PFO status. We used generalized linear mixed models with a random effect of component study to explore whether anticoagulation was preferentially selected based on the following: (1) younger age and absence of vascular risk factors, (2) "high-risk" echocardiographic features, and (3) neuroradiologic findings. RESULTS: A total of 1,132 patients with CS and PFO treated with anticoagulation or antiplatelets were included. Overall, 438 participants (39%) were treated with anticoagulation with a range (by database) of 22% to 54%. Treatment choice was not influenced by age or vascular risk factors. However, neuroradiologic findings (superficial or multiple infarcts) and high-risk echocardiographic features (large shunts, shunt at rest, and septal hypermobility) were predictors of anticoagulation use. CONCLUSION: Both antithrombotic regimens are widely used for secondary stroke prevention in patients with CS and PFO. Radiologic and echocardiographic features were strongly associated with treatment choice, whereas conventional vascular risk factors were not. Prior observational studies are likely to be biased by confounding by indication.

Entry Mode Choice in a Hard Service Company

Pro gradun tavoitteena oli löytää tärkeimmät seikat, jotka vaikuttavat kansainvälisen operaatiomuodon valintaan. Tutkimuskohteena olivat suomalaiset pienet tai keskisuuret tuotteistetut ohjelmistopalveluyritykset. Tutkimusmenetelmänä käytettiin kvalitatiivista tutkimusta sekä case-tutkimusta. Tutkimus koostui kahdesta osasta: teoreettinen osa sekä empiirinen kahden case yrityksen analyysi. Operaatiomuodon valintaan vaikuttavat tekijät jaettiin sisäisiin (yritys, tuote ja päätöksentekijä), ulkoisiin (ala ja maa) ja operaatiomuodon (kontrolli, riski, resurssit, joustavuus, tuotot ja kulut) tekijöihin. Teoreettisesti operaatiomuodon valinta on erittäin monimutkainen päätös ja sitä on tutkittu monelta kannalta. Tämä empiirinen tutkimus osoittaa, että yrityksen resurssit olivat tärkein vaikuttava tekijä molemmissa yrityksissä.

Attractive silences in cricket courtship song : mate choice using a short-range signal /

Matings systems using signals for sexual communication have been studied extensively and results commonly suggest that females use these signals for locating males, species-identification, and mate choice. Although numerous mating systems employ multiple signals, research has generally focused on long-range signals perhaps due to their prominence and ease of study. This study focused on the short-range acoustic courtship song of crickets. The results presented here suggest this signal is under selection by female choice. Females mated preferentially with males having shorter silences between the two types of ticks within the song. The length of these silences (Gap 1) was correlated with male condition such that males having long silences were significantly lower in mass with respect to body size when compared to males having short silences. Both Gap 1 length and male condition were significantly repeatable within males over time suggesting the possibility these traits have a genetic basis. This study is the first empirical study to test female preferences within the natural variation of the courtship song. It now appears, at least in crickets, that both the longand short-range signals of a multi-signal mating system may contribute to male mating success.

Heritability of multiple mating by female field crickets, Gryllus integer (Orthoptera: Gryllidae)

The heritability of multiple mating in female Gryllus integer crickets was studied. Two preliminary experiments were conducted to determine when females first mate following the post-imaginal moult and to ascertain whether constant exposure to males affects female mating rate. Female Q. integer first mated at an average age of 3.6 days (S.D. = 2.3, Range = 0-8 days) . Exposing female crickets to courting males 24 hr daily did not significantly alter mating rates from those females in contact with males for only 5 hr per day. A heritability value of 0.690 ± 0.283 was calculated for multiple mating behavior in female Q. integer using a parent-offspring regression approach. Parental females mated between land 30 times (x 9.8, S . D. = 6. 6 ) and offspring matings ranged from 0 to 26 times (x 7 .3, S.D. = 3.4). Multiple mating is probably a sexually selected trait which functions as a mechanism of female choice and increases reproductive success through increased offspring production. Classical theory suggests that traits intimately related with fitness should exhibit negligible heritable variation. However, this study has shown that multiple mating, a trait closely linked with reproductive fitness, exhibits substantial heritability. These results are in concordance with a growing body of empirical evidence suggesting many fitness traits in natural populations demonstrate heritabilities far removed from zero. Various mechanisms which may maintain heritable variation for female multiple mating in wild, outbred Q. integer populations are discussed.

The Efficient Use of Multiple Sources of a Nonrenewable Resource under Supply Cost Uncertainty

Uncertainties as to future supply costs of nonrenewable natural resources, such as oil and gas, raise the issue of the choice of supply sources. In a perfectly deterministic world, an efficient use of multiple sources of supply requires that any given market exhausts the supply it can draw from a low cost source before moving on to a higher cost one; supply sources should be exploited in strict sequence of increasing marginal cost, with a high cost source being left untouched as long as a less costly source is available. We find that this may not be the efficient thing to do in a stochastic world. We show that there exist conditions under which it can be efficient to use a risky supply source in order to conserve a cheaper non risky source. The benefit of doing this comes from the fact that it leaves open the possibility of using it instead of the risky source in the event the latter’s future cost conditions suddenly deteriorate. There are also conditions under which it will be efficient to use a more costly non risky source while a less costly risky source is still available. The reason is that this conserves the less costly risky source in order to use it in the event of a possible future drop in its cost.