Radiocarbon ages and clay minerals in sediment cores obtained during a 2009 Jan Mayen cruise to the Norwegian Sea

The origin of two acoustic sediment units has been studied based on lithological facies, chronology and benthic stable isotope values as well as on foraminifera and clay mineral assemblages in six marine sediment cores from Kveithola, a small trough west of Spitsbergenbanken on the western Barents Sea margin. We have identified four time slices with characteristic sedimentary environments. Before c. 14.2 cal. ka, rhythmically laminated muds indicate extensive sea ice cover in the area. From c. 13.9 to 14.2 cal. ka, muds rich in ice-rafted debris were deposited during the disintegration of grounded ice on Spitsbergenbanken. From c. 10.3 to 13.1 cal. ka, sediments with heterogeneous lithologies suggest a shifting influence of suspension settling and iceberg rafting, probably derived from a decaying Barents Sea Ice Sheet in the inner-fjord and land areas to the north of Kveithola. Holocene deposition was episodic and characterized by the deposition of calcareous sands and shell debris, indicative of strong bottom currents. We speculate that a marked erosional boundary at c. 8.2 cal. ka may have been caused by the Storegga tsunami. Whilst deposition was sparse during the Holocene, Kveithola acted as a sediment trap during the preceding deglaciation. Investigation of the deglacial sediments provides unprecedented details on the dynamics and timing of glacial retreat from Spitsbergenbanken.

Calcium isotope composition of Oceanic Anoxic Events 1a and 2 sediments

Calcium-isotope ratios (d44/42Ca) were measured in carbonate-rich sedimentary sections deposited during Oceanic Anoxic Events 1a (Early Aptian) and 2 (Cenomanian-Turonian). In sections from Resolution Guyot, Mid-Pacific Mountains; Coppitella, Italy; and the English Chalk at Eastbourne and South Ferriby, UK, a negative excursion in d44/42Ca of ~0.20 per mil and ~0.10 per mil is observed for the two events. These d44/42Ca excursions occur at the same stratigraphic level as the carbon-isotope excursions that define the events, but do not correlate with evidence for carbonate dissolution or lithological changes. Diagenetic and temperature effects on the calcium-isotope ratios can be discounted, leaving changes in global seawater composition as the most probable explanation for d44/42Ca changes in four different carbonate sections. An oceanic box model with coupled strontium- and calcium-isotope systems indicates that a global weathering increase is likely to be the dominant driver of transient excursions in calcium-isotope ratios. The model suggests that contributions from hydrothermal activity and carbonate dissolution are too small and short-lived to affect the oceanic calcium reservoir measurably. A modelled increase in weathering flux, on the order of three times the modern flux, combined with increased hydrothermal activity due to formation of the Ontong-Java Plateau (OAE1a) and Caribbean Plateau (OAE2), can produce trends in both calcium and strontium isotopes that match the signals recorded in the carbonate sections. This study presents the first major-element record of a weathering response to Oceanic Anoxic Events.

(Table 1) K-Ar age determinations on biotite from coarse sand within DSDP Sample 72-516F-76-4,107-115

Qualitative petrographic study of selected clastic horizons within the Eocene section of Hole 516F has revealed the presence of abundant fine-grained lithic fragments, probably volcanic, along with coarser fragments of quartz and feldspar apparently derived from a nearby plutonic terrain. In detail, poor sorting, presence of graded bedding, and an abundance of clay suggest these are turbidite horizons locally derived from a mixed volcanic/plutonic terrain, possibly with some direct contribution from contemporary volcanic ash falls. A progressive increase in plutonic versus volcanic components with time is, however, more consistent with an erosional origin for most of this material. Unusual euhedral dark biotite is abundant in several of the lower clastic horizons; it is most easily interpreted as microphenocrysts weathered in situ out of alkalic volcanic ash. Biotite separated from Sample 516F-76-4,107-115 cm, has been dated by the K-Ar method at about 46 Ma. Alkaline volcanoes active on the Rio Grande Rise in the middle Eocene would be the most probable source of this ash and would be consistent with other evidence for potassic, alkaline volcanism along the Rio Grande Rise and at the Tristan da Cunha hot spot.

Marine barite in sediments of DSDP Site 54-424

The distribution of barite in sediments from D.S.D.P. sites 424 and 424A at the Galapagos hydrothermal mounds field is determined and the process of its formation is deduced. Barite in these deposits is associated with calcareous sediments and is completely absent from the hydrothermal material (manganese crusts and nontronite). Its concentrations tend to increase in the deeper sediments. Since manganese crusts contain significant amounts of Ba, a lack of barite in them is probably due to low concentrations of [SO4]2 in the sediment-seawater interface where they form. The formation of barite occurs within buried sediments, the interstitial waters of which are saturated with [SO4]2. The most probable source of [SO4]2- is the oxidation of H2S which is released from the hydrothermal fluids percolating upwards through the sediments. Although nontronite is formed within buried sediments the environmental conditions occurring during its formation (reducing) prevent barite formation. The association of barite with calcareous sediments is due to the release of Ba by calcareous microorganisms and/or to high concentrations of Ca in the pore waters which maintain a high pH and hence [SO4]2- is stable.

Consolidation characteristics and permeabilities of sediments from the Japan Sea

The results of laboratory consolidation tests and undrained shear strength determinations of sediments from the Oki Ridge and the Kita Yamato Trough show that the sediments are overconsolidated to normally consolidated to a depth of about 20 m below the seafloor. Below that depth, the sediments are highly underconsolidated, implying high excess pore-water pressures. The most probable mechanism for the generation of the excess pore-water pressure is gas in sediments.

Eemian temperature reconstruction for European sites

Botanical data are widely used as terrestrial proxy data for climate reconstructions. Using a newly established method based on probability density functions (pdf-method), the temperature development throughout the last interglacial, the Eemian, is reconstructed for the two German sites Bispingen and Grobern and the French site La Grande Pile. The results are compared with previous reconstructions using other methods. After a steep increase in January as well as July temperatures in the early phase of the interglacial, the reconstructed most probable climate appears to be slightly warmer than today. While the temperature is reconstructed as relatively stable throughout the Eemian, a certain tendency towards cooler January temperatures is evident. January temperatures decreased from approx. 2-3° C in the early part to approx. -3° C in the later part at Bispingen, and from approx. 2° C to approx. -1° C at Grobern and La Grande Pile. A major drop to about -8° C marks the very end of the interglacial at all three sites. While these results agree well with other proxy data and former reconstructions based on the indicator species method, the results differ significantly from reconstructions based on the modern pollen analogue technique ("pollen transfer functions"). The lack of modern analogues is assumed to be the main reason for the discrepancies. It is concluded that any reconstruction method needs to be evaluated carefully in this respect if used for periods lacking modern analogous plant communities.

(Table 1) Isotopic and geochemical parameters of gas phase from underground fluids of the Baikal rift and its framing

Results of studying isotopic composition of helium in underground fluids of the Baikal-Mongolian region during the last quarter of XX century are summarized. Determinations of 3He/4He ratio in 139 samples of gas phase from fluids, collected at 104 points of the Baikal rift zone and adjacent structures are given. 3He/4He values lie within the range from 1x10**-8 (typical for crustal radiogenic helium) to 1.1x10**-5 (close to typical MORB reservoir). Repeated sampling in some points during more than 20 years showed stability of helium isotopic composition in time in each of them at any level of 3He/4He values. There is no systematic differences of 3He/4He in samples from surface water sources and deeper intervals of boreholes in the same areas. Universal relationship between isotopic composition of helium and general composition of gas phase is absent either, but the minimum 3He/4He values occurred in methane gas of hydrocarbon deposits, whereas in nitrogen and carbon dioxide gases of helium composition varied (in the latter maximum 3He/4He values have been measured). According to N2/Ar_atm ratio nitrogen gases are atmospheric. In carbonic gas fN2/fNe ratio indicates presence of excessive (non-atmogenic) nitrogen, but the attitude CO2/3He differs from one in MORB. Comparison of helium isotopic composition with its concentration and composition of the main components of gas phase from fluids shows that it is formed under influence of fractionation of components with different solubility in the gas-water system and generation/consumption of reactive gases in the crust. Structural and tectonic elements of the region differ from the spectrum of 3He/4He values. At the pre-Riphean Siberian Platform the mean 3He/4He = (3.6+/-0.9)x10**- 8 is very close to radiogenic one. In the Paleozoic crust of Khangay 3He/4He = (16.3+/-4.6)x10**-8, and the most probable estimate is (12.3+/-2.9)x10**-8. In structures of the eastern flank of the Baikal rift zone (Khentei, Dauria) affected by the Mz-Kz activization 3He/4He values range from 4.4x10**-8 to 2.14x10**-6 (average 0.94x10**-6). Distribution of 3He/4He values across the strike of the Baikal rift zone indicates advective heat transfer from the mantle not only in the rift zone, but also much further to the east. In fluids of the Baikal rift zone range of 3He/4He values is the widest: from 4x10**-8 to 1.1x10**-5. Their variations along the strike of the rift zone are clearly patterned, namely, decrease of 3He/4He values in both directions from the Tunka depression. Accompanied by decrease in density of conductive heat flow and in size of rift basins, this trend indicates decrease in intensity of advective heat transfer from the mantle to peripheral segments of the rift zone. Comparing this trend with data on other continental rift zones and mid-ocean ridges leads to the conclusion about fundamental differences in mechanisms of interaction between the crust and the mantle in these environments.

Measurements of neutrino oscillation in appearance and disappearance channels by the T2K experiment with 6.6×10²⁰ protons on target

We report on measurements of neutrino oscillation using data from the T2K long-baseline neutrino experiment collected between 2010 and 2013. In an analysis of muon neutrino disappearance alone, we find the following estimates and 68% confidence intervals for the two possible mass hierarchies: Normal Hierarchy: sin²θ₂₃= 0.514+0.055−0.056 and ∆m²_32 = (2.51 ± 0.10) × 10⁻³ eV²/c⁴ Inverted Hierarchy: sin²θ₂₃= 0.511 ± 0.055 and ∆m²_13 = (2.48 ± 0.10) × 10⁻³ eV²/c⁴ The analysis accounts for multi-nucleon mechanisms in neutrino interactions which were found to introduce negligible bias. We describe our first analyses that combine measurements of muon neutrino disappearance and electron neutrino appearance to estimate four oscillation parameters, |∆m^2|, sin²θ₂₃, sin²θ₁₃, δCP , and the mass hierarchy. Frequentist and Bayesian intervals are presented for combinations of these parameters, with and without including recent reactor measurements. At 90% confidence level and including reactor measurements, we exclude the region δCP = [0.15, 0.83]π for normal hierarchy and δCP = [−0.08, 1.09]π for inverted hierarchy. The T2K and reactor data weakly favor the normal hierarchy with a Bayes Factor of 2.2. The most probable values and 68% 1D credible intervals for the other oscillation parameters, when reactor data are included, are: sin²θ₂₃= 0.528+0.055−0.038 and |∆m²_32| = (2.51 ± 0.11) × 10⁻³ eV²/c⁴.

Probabilistic mapping with mobile robots in structured environments

La mayor parte de los entornos diseñados por el hombre presentan características geométricas específicas. En ellos es frecuente encontrar formas poligonales, rectangulares, circulares . . . con una serie de relaciones típicas entre distintos elementos del entorno. Introducir este tipo de conocimiento en el proceso de construcción de mapas de un robot móvil puede mejorar notablemente la calidad y la precisión de los mapas resultantes. También puede hacerlos más útiles de cara a un razonamiento de más alto nivel. Cuando la construcción de mapas se formula en un marco probabilístico Bayesiano, una especificación completa del problema requiere considerar cierta información a priori sobre el tipo de entorno. El conocimiento previo puede aplicarse de varias maneras, en esta tesis se presentan dos marcos diferentes: uno basado en el uso de primitivas geométricas y otro que emplea un método de representación cercano al espacio de las medidas brutas. Un enfoque basado en características geométricas supone implícitamente imponer un cierto modelo a priori para el entorno. En este sentido, el desarrollo de una solución al problema SLAM mediante la optimización de un grafo de características geométricas constituye un primer paso hacia nuevos métodos de construcción de mapas en entornos estructurados. En el primero de los dos marcos propuestos, el sistema deduce la información a priori a aplicar en cada caso en base a una extensa colección de posibles modelos geométricos genéricos, siguiendo un método de Maximización de la Esperanza para hallar la estructura y el mapa más probables. La representación de la estructura del entorno se basa en un enfoque jerárquico, con diferentes niveles de abstracción para los distintos elementos geométricos que puedan describirlo. Se llevaron a cabo diversos experimentos para mostrar la versatilidad y el buen funcionamiento del método propuesto. En el segundo marco, el usuario puede definir diferentes modelos de estructura para el entorno mediante grupos de restricciones y energías locales entre puntos vecinos de un conjunto de datos del mismo. El grupo de restricciones que se aplica a cada grupo de puntos depende de la topología, que es inferida por el propio sistema. De este modo, se pueden incorporar nuevos modelos genéricos de estructura para el entorno con gran flexibilidad y facilidad. Se realizaron distintos experimentos para demostrar la flexibilidad y los buenos resultados del enfoque propuesto. Abstract Most human designed environments present specific geometrical characteristics. In them, it is easy to find polygonal, rectangular and circular shapes, with a series of typical relations between different elements of the environment. Introducing this kind of knowledge in the mapping process of mobile robots can notably improve the quality and accuracy of the resulting maps. It can also make them more suitable for higher level reasoning applications. When mapping is formulated in a Bayesian probabilistic framework, a complete specification of the problem requires considering a prior for the environment. The prior over the structure of the environment can be applied in several ways; this dissertation presents two different frameworks, one using a feature based approach and another one employing a dense representation close to the measurements space. A feature based approach implicitly imposes a prior for the environment. In this sense, feature based graph SLAM was a first step towards a new mapping solution for structured scenarios. In the first framework, the prior is inferred by the system from a wide collection of feature based priors, following an Expectation-Maximization approach to obtain the most probable structure and the most probable map. The representation of the structure of the environment is based on a hierarchical model with different levels of abstraction for the geometrical elements describing it. Various experiments were conducted to show the versatility and the good performance of the proposed method. In the second framework, different priors can be defined by the user as sets of local constraints and energies for consecutive points in a range scan from a given environment. The set of constraints applied to each group of points depends on the topology, which is inferred by the system. This way, flexible and generic priors can be incorporated very easily. Several tests were carried out to demonstrate the flexibility and the good results of the proposed approach.

Application of backend database contents and structure to the design of spoken dialog services

Current development platforms for designing spoken dialog services feature different kinds of strategies to help designers build, test, and deploy their applications. In general, these platforms are made up of several assistants that handle the different design stages (e.g. definition of the dialog flow, prompt and grammar definition, database connection, or to debug and test the running of the application). In spite of all the advances in this area, in general the process of designing spoken-based dialog services is a time consuming task that needs to be accelerated. In this paper we describe a complete development platform that reduces the design time by using different types of acceleration strategies based on using information from the data model structure and database contents, as well as cumulative information obtained throughout the successive steps in the design. Thanks to these accelerations, the interaction with the platform is simplified and the design is reduced, in most cases, to simple confirmations to the “proposals” that the platform automatically provides at each stage. Different kinds of proposals are available to complete the application flow such as the possibility of selecting which information slots should be requested to the user together, predefined templates for common dialogs, the most probable actions that make up each state defined in the flow, different solutions to solve specific speech-modality problems such as the presentation of the lists of retrieved results after querying the backend database. The platform also includes accelerations for creating speech grammars and prompts, and the SQL queries for accessing the database at runtime. Finally, we will describe the setup and results obtained in a simultaneous summative, subjective and objective evaluations with different designers used to test the usability of the proposed accelerations as well as their contribution to reducing the design time and interaction.

Diseño y aplicación de una metodología prospectiva para la determinación de los condicionantes futuros del crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores

Durante las últimas décadas se observa una tendencia sostenida al crecimiento en las dimensiones de los grandes buques portacontenedores, que produce, que las infraestructuras portuarias y otras destinadas al tráfico de contenedores deban adaptarse para poder brindar los servicios correspondientes y mantenerse competitivas con otras para no perder el mercado. Esta situación implica importantes inversiones y modificaciones en los sistemas de transporte de contenedores por el gran volumen de carga que se debe mover en un corto periodo de tiempo, lo que genera la necesidad de tomar previsiones relacionadas con la probable evolución a futuro de las dimensiones que alcanzarán los grandes buques portacontenedores. En relación a los aspectos citados surge la inquietud de determinar los condicionantes futuros del crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores, con una visión totalizadora de todos los factores que incidirán en los próximos años, ya sea como un freno o un impulso a la tendencia que se verifica en el pasado y en el presente. En consideración a que el tema a tratar y resolver se encuentra en el futuro, con un horizonte de predicción de veinte años, se diseña y se aplica una metodología prospectiva, que permite alcanzar conclusiones con mayor grado de objetividad sobre probables escenarios futuros. La metodología prospectiva diseñada, conjuga distintas herramientas metodológicas, cualitativas, semi-cuantitativas y cuantitativas que se validan entre sí. Sobre la base del pasado y el presente, las herramientas cuantitativas permiten encontrar relaciones entre variables y hacer proyecciones, sin embargo, estas metodologías pierden validez más allá de los tres a cuatro años, por los vertiginosos y dinámicos cambios que se producen actualmente, en las áreas política, social y económica. Las metodologías semi-cuantitativas y cualitativas, empleadas en forma conjunta e integradas, permiten el análisis de circunstancias del pasado y del presente, obteniendo resultados cuantitativos que se pueden proyectar hacia un futuro cercano, los que integrados en estudios cualitativos proporcionan resultados a largo plazo, facilitando considerar variables cualitativas como la creciente preocupación por la preservación del medio ambiente y la piratería. La presente tesis, tiene como objetivo principal “identificar los condicionantes futuros del crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores y determinar sus escenarios”. Para lo cual, la misma se estructura en fases consecutivas y que se retroalimentan continuamente. Las tres primeras fases son un enfoque sobre el pasado y el presente, que establece el problema a resolver. Se estudian los antecedentes y el estado del conocimiento en relación a los factores y circunstancias que motivaron y facilitaron la tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques. También se estudia el estado del conocimiento de las metodologías para predecir el futuro y se diseña de una metodología prospectiva. La cuarta fase, denominada Resultados, se desarrolla en distintas etapas, fundamentadas en las fases anteriores, con el fin de resolver el problema dando respuestas a las preguntas que se formularon para alcanzar el objetivo fijado. En el proceso de esta fase, con el objeto de predecir probables futuros, se aplica la metodología prospectiva diseñada, que contempla el análisis del pasado y el presente, que determina los factores cuya influencia provocó el crecimiento en dimensiones de los grandes buques hasta la actualidad, y que constituye la base para emplear los métodos prospectivos que permiten determinar qué factores condicionarán en el futuro la evolución de los grandes buques. El probable escenario futuro formado por los factores determinados por el criterio experto, es validado mediante un modelo cuantitativo dinámico, que además de obtener el probable escenario futuro basado en las tendencias de comportamiento hasta el presente de los factores determinantes considerados, permite estudiar distintos probables escenarios futuros en función de considerar un cambio en la tendencia futura de los factores determinantes. El análisis del pasado indica que la tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores hasta el presente, se ha motivado por un crecimiento económico mundial que se tradujo en un aumento del comercio internacional, particularmente entre los países de Asia, con Europa y Estados Unidos. Esta tendencia se ha visto favorecida por el factor globalización y la acelerada evolución tecnológica que ha permitido superar los obstáculos que se presentaron. Es de destacar que aún en periodos de crisis económicas, con pronósticos de contracciones en el comercio, en los últimos años continuó la tendencia al crecimiento en dimensiones, en busca de una economía de escala para el transporte marítimo de contenedores, en las rutas transoceánicas. La investigación de la evolución de los grandes buques portacontenedores en el futuro, se efectúa mediante el empleo de una metodología prospectiva en la que el criterio experto se valida con un método cuantitativo dinámico, y además se fundamenta en una solida base pre-prospectiva. La metodología diseñada permite evaluar con un alto grado de objetividad cuales serán los condicionantes que incidirán en el crecimiento en tamaño de los grandes buques portacontenedores en el escenario con mayor probabilidad de acontecer en los próximos veinte años (2032), y también en otros escenarios que podrían presentarse en el caso de que los factores modifiquen su tendencia o bien se produzcan hechos aleatorios. El resultado se sintetiza en que la tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores en los próximos 20 años se verá condicionada por factores en relación a los conceptos de oferta (los que facilitan u obstaculizan la tendencia), demanda (los que motivan o impulsan la tendencia) y factores externos (los que desestabilizan el equilibrio entre oferta y demanda). La tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores se verá obstaculizada / limitada principalmente por factores relacionados a las infraestructuras, resultando los pasos y/o canales vinculados a las rutas marítimas, los limitantes futuros al crecimiento en dimensiones de los grandes buques portacontenedores; y la interacción buque / infraestructura (grúas) un factor que tenderá a obstaculizar esta tendencia de los grandes portacontenedores. El desarrollo económico mundial que estimula el comercio internacional y los factores precio del petróleo y condicionantes medioambientales impulsarán la tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores. Recent years have seen a sustained tendency towards the growth in the dimensions of large container ships. This has meant that port and other infrastructure used for container traffic has had to be adapted in order to provide the required services and to maintain a competitive position, so as not to lose market share. This situation implies the need for major investments in modifications to the container transport system, on account of the large volume of traffic to be handled in a short period of time. This in turn has generated a need to make provision for the probable future evolution of the ultimate dimensions that will be reached by large container ships. Such considerations give rise to the question of what are the future determinants for the growth of large container ships, requiring an overall vision of all the factors that will apply in future years, whether as a brake on or an incentive to the growth tendency which has been seen in the past and present In view of the fact that the theme to be dealt with and resolved relates to the future, with a forecasting horizon of some 20 years, a foresight methodology has been designed and applied so as to enable conclusions about probable future scenarios to be reached with a greater degree of objectivity. The designed methodology contains different methodological tools, both qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative, which are internally consistent. On the basis of past and present observations, the quantitative elements enable relationships to be established and forecasts to be made. Nevertheless such an approach loses validity more than three or four years into the future, on account of the very rapid and dynamic changes which may be seen at present in political, social and economic spheres. The semi-quantitative and qualitative methodologies are used coherently together and allow the analysis of past and present conditions, thus obtaining quantitative results which for short-term projections, which when integrated with the qualitative studies provide results for the long-term, facilitating the consideration of qualitative variables such as the increasing importance of environmental protection and the impact of piracy. The principal objective of the present thesis is "to identify the future conditions affecting the growth of large container ships and to determine possible scenarios". The thesis is structured in consecutive and related phases. The first three phases focus on the past and present in order to determine the problem to be resolved. The background is studied in order to establish the state of knowledge about the factors and circumstances which have motivated and facilitated the growth tendency for large container ships and the methodologies that have been used. In this way a specific foresight methodology is designed. The fourth phase, Results, is developed in distinct stages based on the previous phases, so as to resolve the problem posed and responding to the questions that arise. In this way the determined objective is reached. The fourth phase sees the application of the methodology that has been designed in order to predict posible futures. This includes analysis of the past and present factors which have caused the growth in the dimensions of large container ships up to the present. These provide the basis on which to apply the foresight methods which enable the future factors which will condition the development of such large container ships. The probable future scenarios are made up of the factors identified by expert judgement (using the Delphi technique) and validated by means of a dynamic quantitative model. This model both identifies the probable future scenarios based on past and present factors and enables the different future scenarios to be analysed as a function of future changes in the conditioning factors. Analysis of the past shows that the growth tendency up to the present for large container ships has been motivated by the growth of the world economy and the consequent increased international trade, especially between the countries of Asia with Europe and the United States. This tendency has been favoured by the trend towards globalization and by the rapid technical evolution in ship design, which has allowed the obstacles encountered to be overcome. It should be noted that even in periods of economic crisis, with an expectation for reduced trade, as experienced in recent years, the tendency towards increased ship dimensions has continued in search of economies of scale for the maritime transport of containers on transoceanic routes. The present investigation of the future evolution of large container ships has been done using a foresight methodology in which the expert judgement is validated by a dynamic quantitative methodology, founded on a firm pre-foresight analysis. The methodology that has been designed permits the evaluation, with a high degree of objectivity, of the future factors that will affect the growth of large container ships for the most probable scenario expected in the next 20 years (up to 2032). The evaluation applies also to other scenarios which may arise, in the event that their component factors are modified or indeed in the light of random events. In summary, the conclusión is that the tendency for growth in large container ships in the future 20 years will be determined by: factors related to supply, which slow or halt the tendency; factors related to demand, which encourage the tendency and finally, external factors which interrupt the equilibrium between supply and demand. The tendency for increasing growth in large container ships will be limited or even halted by factors related to infrastructure, including the natural and man-made straits and canals used by maritime transport. In addition the infrastructure required to serve such vessels both in port (including cranes and other equipment) and related transport, will tend to slow the growth tendency. The factors which will continue to encourage the tendency towards the growth of large container ships include world economic development, which stimulates international trade, and an increasing emphasis on environmental aspects.

Ecological and genetic determinants of Pepino mosaic virus emergence

Virus emergence is a complex phenomenon, which generally involves spread to a new host from a wild host, followed by adaptation to the new host. Although viruses account for the largest fraction of emerging crop pathogens, knowledge about their emergence is incomplete. We address here the question of whether Pepino mosaic virus (PepMV) emergence as a major tomato pathogen worldwide could have involved spread from wild to cultivated plant species and host adaptation. For this, we surveyed natural populations of wild tomatoes in southern Peru for PepMV infection. PepMV incidence, genetic variation, population structure, and accumulation in various hosts were analyzed. PepMV incidence in wild tomatoes was high, and a strain not yet reported in domestic tomato was characterized. This strain had a wide host range within the Solanaceae, multiplying efficiently in most assayed Solanum species and being adapted to wild tomato hosts. Conversely, PepMV isolates from tomato crops showed evidence of adaptation to domestic tomato, possibly traded against adaptation to wild tomatoes. Phylogenetic reconstructions indicated that the most probable ancestral sequence came from a wild Solanum species. A high incidence of PepMV in wild tomato relatives would favor virus spread to crops and its efficient multiplication in different Solanum species, including tomato, allowing its establishment as an epidemic pathogen. Later, adaptation to tomato, traded off against adaptation to other Solanum species, would isolate tomato populations from those in other hosts.

Quantifying dispersal paths in probabilistic habitat networks: a reply to hock and mumby (2015) and an overview of recent developments and applications

Hock and Mumby (2015) describe an approach to quantify dispersal probabilities along paths in networks of habitat patches. This approach basically consists in determining the most probable (most reliable) path for movement between habitat patches by calculating the product of the dispersal probabilities in each link (step) along the paths in the network. Although the paper by Hock and Mumby (2015) has value and includes interesting analyses (see comments in section 7 below), the approach they describe is not new.

Dynamic topic-based adaptation of language models: a comparison between different approaches

This paper presents a dynamic LM adaptation based on the topic that has been identified on a speech segment. We use LSA and the given topic labels in the training dataset to obtain and use the topic models. We propose a dynamic language model adaptation to improve the recognition performance in "a two stages" AST system. The final stage makes use of the topic identification with two variants: the first on uses just the most probable topic and the other one depends on the relative distances of the topics that have been identified. We perform the adaptation of the LM as a linear interpolation between a background model and topic-based LM. The interpolation weight id dynamically adapted according to different parameters. The proposed method is evaluated on the Spanish partition of the EPPS speech database. We achieved a relative reduction in WER of 11.13% over the baseline system which uses a single blackground LM.