841 resultados para Mortality forecasting


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The current trend in infant mortality in the East compared with the UK as a whole, the contribution of different causes to the total number of deaths, and PCT-specific information on 8 years of combined data.

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BACKGROUND: High blood pressure, blood glucose, serum cholesterol, and BMI are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease and diabetes. We estimated mortality from cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes that was attributable to these four cardiometabolic risk factors for all countries and regions from 1980 to 2010. METHODS: We used data for exposure to risk factors by country, age group, and sex from pooled analyses of population-based health surveys. We obtained relative risks for the effects of risk factors on cause-specific mortality from meta-analyses of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions for each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multicausality and for mediation of the effects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specific population attributable fractions by the number of disease-specific deaths. We obtained cause-specific mortality from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all the inputs to the final estimates. FINDINGS: In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes in every region, causing more than 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths, and high cholesterol for more than 10%. After accounting for multicausality, 63% (10·8 million deaths, 95% CI 10·1-11·5) of deaths from these diseases in 2010 were attributable to the combined effect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7·1 million deaths, 6·6-7·6) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled from 1980 to 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates from these diseases attributable to the combined effects of these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100 000 for men in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, but were less than 130 deaths per 100 000 for women and less than 200 for men in some high-income countries including Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, and Spain. INTERPRETATION: The salient features of the cardiometabolic disease and risk factor epidemic at the beginning of the 21st century are high blood pressure and an increasing effect of obesity and diabetes. The mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors has shifted from high-income to low-income and middle-income countries. Lowering cardiometabolic risks through dietary, behavioural, and pharmacological interventions should be a part of the global response to non-communicable diseases. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, US National Institutes of Health.

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This review was established to consider why, despite a general improvement in infant mortality rates, health inequalities in infant mortality between different social groups remain. It identifies a range of issues and makes recommendations relevant to the health inequalities 2010 PSA target. Its recommendations are being shared with the NHS and others before the department issues further guidance.

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This study reveals a picture of inequalities in infant mortality across London.

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This report explores the factors that contribute to infant mortality in the capital and ways in which commissioners might monitor the contribution of their local NHS to the national infant mortality target as well as contributing to maternity policy.

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Law and science have partnered together in the recent past to solve major public health issues, ranging from asbestos to averting the threat of a nuclear holocaust. This paper travels to a legal and health policy frontier where no one has gone before, examining the role of precautionary principles under international law as a matter of codified international jurisprudence by examining draft terminology from prominent sources including the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution (UK), the Swiss Confederation, the USA (NIOSH) and the OECD. The research questions addressed are how can the benefits of nanotechnology be realized, while minimizing the risk of harm? What law, if any, applies to protect consumers (who comprise the general public, nanotechnology workers and their corporate social partners) and other stakeholders within civil society from liability? What law, if any, applies to prevent harm?

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The 2008 annual update on infant mortality rates to monitor progress against the Department of Health infant mortality inequality PSA target.

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The publication shows how to narrow the health inequalities gap in infant mortality by looking at current examples of best practice.

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This review aims at identifying gaps in knowledge on socioeconomic gradients in mortality in the oldest old. The authors review literature on oldest old population with a focus on unanswered questions: do socioeconomic status (SES) gradients in mortality persist after 80; does the magnitude of the gradient change as compared with younger populations; which socioeconomic/socio-demographic determinants should be used in this population with specific characteristics (e.g., with respect to sex ratio and household type)? Results are often inconsistent while conclusions drawn by selected studies are generally limited by the difficulty of disentangling the effects of age and cohort, and of generalizing results observed in preponderantly small, selected samples (which typically exclude institutionalized persons). Future research should explore the effects of socio-demographic indicators other than education and social class (e.g., marital status, loss of the partner) and adequately differentiate the social position of oldest old women. The authors recommend that research applies a life-course perspective combined with an interdisciplinary perspective to improve our understanding of the SES gradients in later life. Research is needed to elucidate which causal pathways depending on SES in younger age impact on mortality in higher ages up to oldest old.

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The prevalence of hepatitis A virus (HAV) infection is high in developing countries, in which low standards of sanitation promote the transmission of the virus. In Latin America, which is considered an area of high HAV endemicity, most HAV-positive individuals are infected in early childhood. However, recent studies have shown that prevalence rates are decreasing. Herein, we review the data on HAV prevalence and outbreaks available in scientific databases. We also use official government data in order to evaluate mortality rates in Brazil over the last two decades. Studies conducted in the northernmost regions of Brazil have indicated that, although improved hygiene has led to a reduction in childhood exposure to HAV, the greatest exposure still occurs early in life. In the Southeastern region, the persistence of circulating HAV has generated outbreaks among individuals of low socioeconomic status, despite adequate sanitation. Nationwide, hepatitis A mortality rates declined progressively from 1980 to 2002. During that period, mortality rates in the Northern region consistently exceeded the mean national rate and those for other regions. Excluding the North, the rates in all regions were comparable. Nevertheless, the trend toward decline observed in the South was paralleled by a similar trend in the North.

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This report is the fifth annual perinatal mortality surveillance report conducted under the auspices of the Confidential Enquiry into Maternal and Child Health (CEMACH). CEMACH was established in 2003 as the successor organisation to two previous national confidential enquiries, the Confidential Enquiry into Maternal Deaths (CEMD) and the Confidential Enquiry into Stillbirths and Deaths in Infancy (CESDI). The programme of national confidential enquiries was started by CEMD in 1952 and by CESDI from 1992. Since its inception in 2003, CEMACH has successfully extended its remit to encompass a new national enquiry into child health and research on a wide range of relevant topics that include morbidity as well as mortality.

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CMACE provides information on perinatal deaths at local, regional and national level for health careproviders, commissioners and policy makers. This UK report complements the perinatal mortality reports which CMACE produces for the UK nations separately, Strategic Health Authorities (SHAs) in England and maternity providers.

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The CMACE report Perinatal Mortality 2009 completes a decade of reports from CMACE and its predecessor organizations CESDI and CEMACH. As in previous years, the findings are both heartening and challenging.During the last decade the United Kingdom has seen a dramatic 16%increase in the number of births to just over 790,000 in 2009. Despite promising improvements, there were still 6,600 babies who died during pregnancy or in the first 4 weeks of life in 2009. The impact on mothers and families from such tragedies cannot be overestimated.�

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The findings in this report are based on stillbirths and neonatal deaths with a date of birth between 1 January 2008 and 31 December 2008 notified to AWPS/CMACE and reported to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). For maternity provider rates, denominators are based on live births reported to AWPS/CMACE by hospitals. For country rates, denominators are based on live births reported to ONS and NISRA-GRO.Perinatal mortality rates for 2008 are assigned to a geographical area. Country specific findings are derived using maternal postcode of residence. Findings for maternity providers within Northern Ireland are derived using the place of death, and any deaths at home are allocated to the maternity provider that provided the care at the time of death.

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The findings in this report are based on stillbirths and neonatal deaths with a date of birth between 1 January 2009 and 31 December 2009 notified to CMACE and reported to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). For Trust rates, denominators are based on live births reported to CMACE by hospitals. For Strategic Health Authority (SHA) and country rates, denominators are based on live births reported to ONS and Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA).Perinatal mortality rates for 2009 are assigned to a geographical area and are derived using maternal postcode of residence. Findings for Trusts are derived using the place of death, and any deaths at home are allocated to the Trusts that provided the care at the time of death.