Factors associated with mortality in transplant patients with invasive aspergillosis.

BACKGROUND: Invasive aspergillosis (IA) is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) and solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients. The purpose of this study was to evaluate factors associated with mortality in transplant patients with IA. METHODS: Transplant patients from 23 US centers were enrolled from March 2001 to October 2005 as part of the Transplant Associated Infection Surveillance Network. IA cases were identified prospectively in this cohort through March 2006, and data were collected. Factors associated with 12-week all-cause mortality were determined by logistic regression analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: Six-hundred forty-two cases of proven or probable IA were evaluated, of which 317 (49.4%) died by the study endpoint. All-cause mortality was greater in HSCT patients (239 [57.5%] of 415) than in SOT patients (78 [34.4%] of 227; P<.001). Independent poor prognostic factors in HSCT patients were neutropenia, renal insufficiency, hepatic insufficiency, early-onset IA, proven IA, and methylprednisolone use. In contrast, white race was associated with decreased risk of death. Among SOT patients, hepatic insufficiency, malnutrition, and central nervous system disease were poor prognostic indicators, whereas prednisone use was associated with decreased risk of death. Among HSCT or SOT patients who received antifungal therapy, use of an amphotericin B preparation as part of initial therapy was associated with increased risk of death. CONCLUSIONS: There are multiple variables associated with survival in transplant patients with IA. Understanding these prognostic factors may assist in the development of treatment algorithms and clinical trials.

Ventricular conduction and long-term heart failure outcomes and mortality in African Americans: insights from the Jackson Heart Study.

BACKGROUND: QRS prolongation is associated with adverse outcomes in mostly white populations, but its clinical significance is not well established for other groups. We investigated the association between QRS duration and mortality in African Americans. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed data from 5146 African Americans in the Jackson Heart Study stratified by QRS duration on baseline 12-lead ECG. We defined QRS prolongation as QRS≥100 ms. We assessed the association between QRS duration and all-cause mortality using Cox proportional hazards models and reported the cumulative incidence of heart failure hospitalization. We identified factors associated with the development of QRS prolongation in patients with normal baseline QRS. At baseline, 30% (n=1528) of participants had QRS prolongation. The cumulative incidences of mortality and heart failure hospitalization were greater with versus without baseline QRS prolongation: 12.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 11.0-14.4) versus 7.1% (95% CI, 6.3-8.0) and 8.2% (95% CI, 6.9-9.7) versus 4.4% (95% CI, 3.7-5.1), respectively. After risk adjustment, QRS prolongation was associated with increased mortality (hazard ratio, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.03-1.56; P=0.02). There was a linear relationship between QRS duration and mortality (hazard ratio per 10 ms increase, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.01-1.12). Older age, male sex, prior myocardial infarction, lower ejection fraction, left ventricular hypertrophy, and left ventricular dilatation were associated with the development of QRS prolongation. CONCLUSIONS: QRS prolongation in African Americans was associated with increased mortality and heart failure hospitalization. Factors associated with developing QRS prolongation included age, male sex, prior myocardial infarction, and left ventricular structural abnormalities.

Platelet Counts, Acute Kidney Injury, and Mortality after Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting Surgery.

BACKGROUND: Cardiac surgery requiring cardiopulmonary bypass is associated with platelet activation. Because platelets are increasingly recognized as important effectors of ischemia and end-organ inflammatory injury, the authors explored whether postoperative nadir platelet counts are associated with acute kidney injury (AKI) and mortality after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery. METHODS: The authors evaluated 4,217 adult patients who underwent CABG surgery. Postoperative nadir platelet counts were defined as the lowest in-hospital values and were used as a continuous predictor of postoperative AKI and mortality. Nadir values in the lowest 10th percentile were also used as a categorical predictor. Multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard models examined the association between postoperative platelet counts, postoperative AKI, and mortality. RESULTS: The median postoperative nadir platelet count was 121 × 10/l. The incidence of postoperative AKI was 54%, including 9.5% (215 patients) and 3.4% (76 patients) who experienced stages II and III AKI, respectively. For every 30 × 10/l decrease in platelet counts, the risk for postoperative AKI increased by 14% (adjusted odds ratio, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.20; P < 0.0001). Patients with platelet counts in the lowest 10th percentile were three times more likely to progress to a higher severity of postoperative AKI (adjusted proportional odds ratio, 3.04; 95% CI, 2.26 to 4.07; P < 0.0001) and had associated increased risk for mortality immediately after surgery (adjusted hazard ratio, 5.46; 95% CI, 3.79 to 7.89; P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: The authors found a significant association between postoperative nadir platelet counts and AKI and short-term mortality after CABG surgery.

Risk adjustment for hospital use using social security data: cross sectional small area analysis

Objectives: To identify demographic and socioeconomic determinants of need for acute hospital treatment at small area level. To establish whether there is a relation between poverty and use of inpatient services. To devise a risk adjustment formula for distributing public funds for hospital services using, as far as possible, variables that can be updated between censuses. Design: Cross sectional analysis. Spatial interactive modelling was used to quantify the proximity of the population to health service facilities. Two stage weighted least squares regression was used to model use against supply of hospital and community services and a wide range of potential needs drivers including health, socioeconomic census variables, uptake of income support and family credit, and religious denomination. Setting: Northern Ireland. Main outcome measure: Intensity of use of inpatient services. Results: After endogeneity of supply and use was taken into account, a statistical model was produced that predicted use based on five variables: income support, family credit, elderly people living alone, all ages standardised mortality ratio, and low birth weight. The main effect of the formula produced is to move resources from urban to rural areas. Conclusions: This work has produced a population risk adjustment formula for acute hospital treatment in which four of the five variables can be updated annually rather than relying on census derived data. Inclusion of the social security data makes a substantial difference to the model and to the results produced by the formula.

Malignancy and mortality in a population-based cohort of patients with coeliac disease or 'gluten sensitivity'

Aim: To determine the risk of malignancy and mortality in patients with a positive endomysial or anti-gliadin antibody test in Northern Ireland.

Methods: A population-based retrospective cohort study design was used. Laboratory test results used in the diagnosis of coeliac disease were obtained from the Regional Immunology Laboratory, cancer statistics from the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry and mortality statistics from the General Registrar Office, Northern Ireland. Age standardized incidence ratios of malignant neoplasms and standardized mortality ratios of all-cause and cause-specific mortality were calculated.

Results: A total of 13 338 people had an endomysial antibody and/or an anti-gliadin antibody test in Northern Ireland between 1993 and 1996. There were 490 patients who tested positive for endomysial antibodies and they were assumed to have coeliac disease. There were 1133 patients who tested positive for anti-gliadin anti-bodies and they were defined as gluten sensitive. Malignant neoplasms were not significantly associated with coeliac disease; however, all-cause mortality was significantly increased following diagnosis. The standardized incidence and mortality ratios for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma were increased in coeliac disease patients but did not reach statistical significance. Lung and breast cancer incidence were significantly lower and all-cause mortality, mortality from malignant neoplasms, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and digestive system disorders were significantly higher in gluten sensitive patients compared to the Northern Ireland population.

Conclusion: Patients with coeliac disease or gluten sensitivity had higher mortality rates than the Northern Ireland population. This association persists more than one year after diagnosis in patients testing positive for anti-gliadin antibodies. Breast cancer is significantly reduced in the cohort of patients with gluten sensitivity. © 2007 The WJG Press. All rights reserved.

The impact of newly identified loci on coronary heart disease, stroke and total mortality in the MORGAM prospective cohorts

Recently, genome wide association studies (GWAS) have identified a number of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) as being associated with coronary heart disease (CHD). We estimated the effect of these SNPs on incident CHD, stroke and total mortality in the prospective cohorts of the MORGAM Project. We studied cohorts from Finland, Sweden, France and Northern Ireland (total N=33,282, including 1,436 incident CHD events and 571 incident stroke events). The lead SNPs at seven loci identified thus far and additional SNPs (in total 42) were genotyped using a case-cohort design.We estimated the effect of the SNPs on disease history at baseline, disease events during follow-up and classic risk factors. Multiple testing was taken into account using false discovery rate (FDR) analysis. SNP rs1333049 on chromosome 9p21.3 was associated with both CHD and stroke (HR5=.20, 95% CI 1.08-1.34 for incident CHD events and 1.15, 0.99-1.34 for incident stroke). SNP rs11670734 (19q12) was associated with total mortality and stroke. SNP rs2146807 (10q11.21) showed some association with the fatality of acute coronary event. SNP rs2943634 (2q36.3) was associated with high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and SNPs rs599839, rs4970834 (1p13.3) and rs17228212 (15q22.23) were associated with non-HDL cholesterol. SNPs rs2943634 (2q36.3) and rs12525353 (6q25.1) were associated with blood pressure. These findings underline the need for replication studies in prospective settings and confirm the candidacy of several SNPs that may play a role in the etiology of cardiovascular disease.

Elevated serum phosphate predicts mortality in renal transplant recipients

BACKGROUND.: High serum phosphate has been identified as an important contributor to the vascular calcification seen in patients with chronic kidney disease (Block et al., Am J Kidney Dis 1998; 31: 607). In patients on hemodialysis, elevated serum phosphate levels are an independent predictor of mortality (Block et al., Am J Kidney Dis 1998; 31: 607; Block, Curr Opin Nephrol Hypertens 2001; 10: 741). The aim of this study was to investigate whether an elevated serum phosphate level was an independent predictor of mortality in patients with a renal transplant.
METHODS.: Three hundred seventy-nine asymptomatic renal transplant recipients were recruited between June 2000 and December 2002. Serum phosphate was measured at baseline and prospective follow-up data were collected at a median of 2441 days after enrolment.
RESULTS.: Serum phosphate was significantly higher in those renal transplant recipients who died at follow-up when compared with those who were still alive at follow-up (P<0.001). In Kaplan-Meier analysis, serum phosphate concentration was a significant predictor of mortality (P=0.0001). In multivariate Cox regression analysis, serum phosphate concentration remained a statistically significant predictor of all-cause mortality after adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and high sensitivity C reactive protein (P=0.036) and after adjustment for renal graft failure (P=0.001).
CONCLUSIONS.: The results of this prospective study are the first to show that a higher serum phosphate is a predictor of mortality in patients with a renal transplant and suggest that serum phosphate provides additional, independent, prognostic information to that provided by traditional risk factors in the risk assessment of patients with a renal transplant.

BELFAST centenarians: A Case of Optimal Cardiovascular Risk?

Introduction: Centenarians are reservoirs of genetic and environmental information to successful ageing and local centenarian groups may help us to understand some of the factors that contribute to longevity. The current centenarian cohort in Belfast survived the 1970s epidemic of death from coronary heart disease in Northern Ireland, where cardiovascular mortality was almost highest in the world. These centenarians provided an opportunity to assess biological and genetic factors important in cardiovascular risk and ageing. Methods: Thirty-five (27 female, 8 male) centenarians, participants of the Belfast Elderly Longitudinal Free-living Ageing STudy (BELFAST), were community-living and of good cognition at enrolment. Results: Centenarians showed median Body Mass Index (BMI) at 25.7, systolic blood pressure 140mmHg and diastolic blood pressure 90mmHg, and fasting glucose of 5.54 mmol/l with no sex-related difference. Lipoproteins showed median cholesterol 5.3, High Density Lipoprotein (HDL) 1.10 and Low Density Lipoprotein (LDL) 3.47umol/l respectively. Centenarian smokers showed no different blood pressure or lipid measurements compared with non-smokers. Malondialdehyde, a measure of lipid peroxidation, was low at 1.19 umol/l, and measures of antioxidant status were varied. Male centenarians did not carry any of the vascular risk genotypes studied-ApoE4 for Apolipoprotein E (ApoE), DD for Angiotensinogen Converting Enzyme (ACE) and tt for 5,10-methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTFHR), though this was not true for female centenarians.. Conclusions: This small local study shows that Belfast centenarians carry a reasonably favourable risk profile, except for age, with respect to cardiovascular disease. There is also some evidence that vascular risk factors and genotypes may be tolerated differently between the male and female centenarians. Maintaining a favourable cardiovascular risk profile seems likely to improve the chance of becoming a centenarian, especially for males.

Can physical activity modulate pancreatic cancer risk?:a systematic review and meta-analysis

Numerous epidemiological studies have examined the association between physical activity and pancreatic cancer; however, findings from individual cohorts have largely not corroborated a protective effect. Among other plausible mechanisms, physical activity may reduce abdominal fat depots inducing metabolic improvements in glucose tolerance and insulin sensitivity, thereby potentially attenuating pancreatic cancer risk. We performed a systematic review to examine associations between physical activity and pancreatic cancer. Six electronic databases were searched from their inception through July 2009, including MEDLINE and EMBASE, seeking observational studies examining any physical activity measure with pancreatic cancer incidence/mortality as an outcome. A random effects model was used to pool individual effect estimates evaluating highest vs. lowest categories of activity. Twenty-eight studies were included. Pooled estimates indicated a reduction in pancreatic cancer risk with higher levels of total (five prospective studies, RR: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.52-0.99) and occupational activity (four prospective studies, RR: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.59-0.96). Nonsignificant inverse associations were seen between risks and recreational and transport physical activity. When examining exercise intensity, moderate activity appeared more protective (RR: 0.79, 95% CI: 0.52-1.20) than vigorous activity (RR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.85-1.11), but results were not statistically significant and the former activity variable incorporated marked heterogeneity. Despite indications of an inverse relationship with higher levels of work and total activity, there was little evidence of such associations with recreational and other activity exposures.

The finding of reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate is associated with increased mortality in a large UK population

BACKGROUND: CKD as defined by KDIGO/KDOQI has been shown to affect ~ 8.5% of the UK population. The prevalence of CKD in the UK is similar to that in the USA, yet incident dialysis rates are dramatically different. This retrospective cohort study investigates the association between reduced kidney function and mortality in a large UK population. METHODS: All serum creatinine results covering Northern Ireland's 1.7 million population were collected between 1 January 2001 and 31 December 2002. Estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR) were calculated for all serum creatinine measurements using four-variable MDRD equation (IDMS aligned). Patients were followed up for both all-cause and cardiovascular mortality data until the end of December 2006. Patients on renal replacement therapy were excluded. Subgroup analysis in the 75 345 subjects enrolled within a parallel primary care study permitted additional survival analysis with adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors. RESULTS: A total of 1 967 827 serum creatinine results from 533 798 patients were collected. During the period of follow-up, 59 980 deaths occurred. In multivariate survival analysis, using eGFR as a time-varying covariate, a graded association between CKD (defined by eGFR) and all-cause mortality was identified. Compared with participants with an eGFR of > 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2), the adjusted hazard ratios (and 95% confidence intervals) for participants with an eGFR of 45-59 mL/min/1.73 m(2) was 1.02 (0.99-1.04), an eGFR of 30-44 mL/min/1.73 m(2) was 1.44 (1.40-1.47), an eGFR of 15-29 mL/min/1.73 m(2) was 2.12 (2.05-2.20) and an eGFR of

Cancer incidence and mortality in patients with insulin-treated diabetes: a UK cohort study

Raised risks of several cancers have been found in patients with type II diabetes, but there are few data on cancer risk in type I diabetes. We conducted a cohort study of 28 900 UK patients with insulin-treated diabetes followed for 520 517 person-years, and compared their cancer incidence and mortality with national expectations. To analyse by diabetes type, we examined risks separately in 23 834 patients diagnosed with diabetes under the age of 30 years, who will almost all have had type I diabetes, and 5066 patients diagnosed at ages 30 - 49 years, who probably mainly had type II. Relative risks of cancer overall were close to unity, but ovarian cancer risk was highly significantly raised in patients with diabetes diagnosed under age 30 years ( standardised incidence ratio ( SIR) = 2.14; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.22 - 3.48; standardised mortality ratio (SMR) = 2.90; 95% CI 1.45 - 5.19), with greatest risks for those with diabetes diagnosed at ages 10 - 19 years. Risks of cancer at other major sites were not substantially raised for type I patients. The excesses of obesity- and alcohol-related cancers in type II diabetes may be due to confounding rather than diabetes per se.

Emergency Management in Developed Countries: An Investigation of Hazard Risk, Vulnerability and Government Response in the UK and USA

During the summer of 2007 the United Kingdom experienced some of the worst flooding in its history, with the city of Hull amongst the worst affected. Meanwhile, the city of New Orleans, USA was subject to severe flooding in August 2005 as a result of Hurricane Katrina. The study has found that both the UK and US government disaster management programmes were ill prepared for these flood events. Many parallel issues have been discovered and discussed. The conditions of vulnerability that are evident in developing countries are not widely present in the UK or US but this must not be allowed to lead to complacency and lack of preparation and awareness. The cost in terms of mortality is relatively low compared to similar events in developing countries; however, the economic implications are considerable and must be addressed.

Impaired endothelium-dependent vasodilatation is a novel predictor of mortality in intensive care

Objective: Endothelial function may be impaired in critical illness. We hypothesized that impaired endothelium-dependent vasodilatation is a predictor of mortality in critically ill patients.
Design: Prospective observational cohort study.
Setting: Seventeen-bed adult intensive care unit in a tertiary referral university teaching hospital. Patients: Patients were recruited within 24 hrs of admission to the intensive care unit.
Interventions: The SphygmoCor Mx system was used to derive the aortic augmentation index from radial artery pulse pressure waveforms. Endothelium-dependent vasodilatation was calculated as the change in augmentation index in response to an endothelium-dependent vasodilator (salbutamol).
Measurements and Main Results: Demographics, severity of illness scores, and physiological parameters were collected. Statistically significant predictors of mortality identified using single regressor analysis were entered into a multiple logistic regression model. Receiver operator characteristic curves were generated. Ninety-four patients completed the study. There were 80 survivors and 14 nonsurvivors. The Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, leukocyte count, and endothelium-dependent vasodilatation conferred an increased risk of mortality. In logistic regression analysis, endothelium-dependent vasodilatation was the only predictor of mortality with an adjusted odds ratio of 26.1 (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.3-159.5). An endothelium-dependent vasodilatation value of 0.5% or less predicted intensive care unit mortality with a sensitivity of 79% (CI, 59-88%) and specificity of 98% (CI, 94-99%).
Conclusions: In vivo bedside assessment of endothelium-dependent vasodilatation is an independent predictor of mortality in the critically ill. We have shown it to be superior to other validated severity of illness scores with high sensitivity and specificity.

Breast cancer mortality in neighbouring European countries with different level of breast screening but similar access to treatment: An analysis of WHO mortality database

Objective: To compare trends in breast cancer mortality within three pairs of neighbouring European countries in relation to implementation of screening. Design: Retrospective trend analysis.
Setting: Three country pairs (Northern Ireland (United Kingdom) v Republic of Ireland, the Netherlands v Belgium and Flanders (Belgian region south of the Netherlands), and Sweden v Norway).
Data sources: WHO mortality database on cause of death and data sources on mammography screening, cancer treatment, and risk factors for breast cancer mortality.
Main outcome measures: Changes in breast cancer mortality calculated from linear regressions of log transformed, age adjusted death rates. Joinpoint analysis was used to identify the year when trends in mortality for all ages began to change.
Results: From 1989 to 2006, deaths from breast cancer decreased by 29% in Northern Ireland and by 26% in the Republic of Ireland; by 25% in the Netherlands and by 20% in Belgium and 25% in Flanders; and by 16% in Sweden and by 24% in Norway. The time trend and year of downward inflexion were similar between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland and between the Netherlands and Flanders. In Sweden, mortality rates have steadily decreased since 1972, with no downward inflexion until 2006. Countries of each pair had similar healthcare services and prevalence of risk factors for breast cancer mortality but differing implementation of mammography screening, with a gap of about 10-15 years.
Conclusions: The contrast between the time differences in implementation of mammography screening and the similarity in reductions in mortality between the country pairs suggest that screening did not play a direct part in the reductions in breast cancer mortality.

Incidence and risk factors for pulmonary exacerbation treatment failures in cystic fibrosis patients chronically infected with Pseudomonas aeruginosa

Background: Pulmonary exacerbations (PEx) are responsible for much of the morbidity and mortality associated with cystic fibrosis (CF). However, there is a paucity of data on outcomes in CF PEx and factors influencing outcomes.

Methods: We reviewed all PEx in patients infected with Pseudomonas aeruginosa treated with parenteral antibiotics over 4 years at our center. Treatment failures were categorized a priori as those PEx requiring antibiotic regimen change, prolongation of therapy > 20 days because of failure to respond, an early recurrent event within < 45 days, or failure to recover lung function to > 90% of baseline FEV1.

Results: A total of 101 patients were followed for 452 PEx. Treatment failures were observed in 125 (28%) of PEx; antibiotic regimen change was observed in 27 (6%), prolongation of therapy in 29 (6%), early recurrent events in 63 (14%), and failure to recover lung function to > 90% of baseline FEV1 in 66 (15%). Demographic factors associated with one or more treatment failures per year included advanced airways disease, use of enteric feeds, CF-related diabetes, and CF liver disease but did not include female sex or F508del homozygosity. Increased treatment failure risk was associated with lower admission FEV1 and increased markers of inflammation. At therapeutic completion, increased inflammatory markers correlated with treatment failure. Failure rates decreased with increasing number of active antimicrobial agents used based on in vitro susceptibility (zero, 28/65 [43%]; one, 38/140 [27%]; two, 59/245 [24%]; three, 0/2 [0%]; P = .02).

Conclusions: One-fourth of PEx fail to respond adequately to initial management. Patient demographic and episode-specific clinical information can be used to identify individuals at increased risk of initial management failure.