968 resultados para Monetary Surprises
Resumo:
In this thesis, I will document and analyze historical aspects of the British debate over adopting a common currency with the European Community primarily during the last half of the twentieth century until the present. More specifically, while on the surface such a decision would seem to turn on economic or political considerations, I will show that this historic British decision not to surrender their pound sterling in exchange for the euro was rooted in the nation's cultural identity. During this decades long British debate over the euro, two opposing, but strongly held, positions developed; one side believed that Britain had a compelling interest in bonding with the rest of Europe economically as well as politically, the other side believed that Britain's independent heritage was deeply rooted in many of its traditions including maintaining control of its own monetary matters, which included keeping its pound sterling. As part of this thesis, I have conducted interviews with business leaders, economists, and social scientists as well as researched public records in order to assess many of the arguments favoring and opposing Britain's adoption of the euro. Many Britons strongly believed that it was time to join other Europeans, who were willing to sacrifice their sovereign currency to a bold common currency experiment, while other Britons viewed the pound sterling as too integral a part of British heritage to abandon. Ultimately, British leaders and citizens had to determine whether such a currency tradeoff would be worth it to them as a nation. It was a gamble that twelve other nations (at the time of the euro's 2002 launch) were ready to take, optimistically calculating that easier credit and reduced exchange transaction costs would lead to greater economic prosperity. Many asserted that only with ! ! such a united European monetary coalition would Europe's nations be able to compete trade-wise with powerful economic nations like the United States and China. My conclusion is that Britain's refusal to join the euro was a decision that had less to do with economic opportunity or political motivations and much more to do with how the British people viewed themselves culturally and their identity as an independent nation.
Resumo:
The process of transition has brought an urgent need to develop many new market-oriented institutions or in some cases to reconstruct existing ones. One of the most important institutions of western-type economies is a central bank. It fulfils several "public good" functions, the most important of which are the achievement of stable price levels and assuring the financial stability of the economy. Nevertheless, even in economies with a long-standing market tradition, the question of whether a central bank is able to stimulate economic activity or whether all its cyclical actions lead only to changes in price levels remains open. The main purpose of this analysis was to empirically prove or disprove the relation between monetary policy and economic activity in more advanced transition countries. Basing his findings on commonly used econometric methods (causality tests, VAR modelling and simulations, simultaneous equations models), Delakorda concludes that the relation between money and economic activity is a mutual one, as there are significant differences between different countries in the conduct of monetary policy and in the environment of central banks. It is the latter which determines the relation between money and economic activity.