Modelled spatial and seasonal distribution of Blue Whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) larvae in the North-East Atlantic (1951 to 2005)

Blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou, http://www.marinespecies.org/aphia.php?p=taxdetails&id=126439) is a small mesopelagic planktivorous gadoid found throughout the North-East Atlantic. This data contains the results of a model-based analysis of larvae captured by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) during the period 1951-2005. The observations are analysed using Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) of the the spatial, seasonal and interannual variation in the occurrence of larvae. The best fitting model is chosen using the Aikaike Information Criteria (AIC). The probability of occurrence in the continous plankton recorder is then normalised and converted to a probability distribution function in space (UTM projection Zone 28) and season (day of year). The best fitting model splits the distribution into two separate spawning grounds north and south of a dividing line at 53 N. The probability distribution is therefore normalised in these two regions (ie the space-time integral over each of the two regions is 1). The modelled outputs are on a UTM Zone 28 grid: however, for convenience, the latitude ("lat") and longitude ("lon") of each of these grid points are also included as a variable in the NetCDF file. The assignment of each grid point to either the Northern or Southern component (defined here as north/south of 53 N), is also included as a further variable ("component"). Finally, the day of year ("doy") is stored as the number of days elapsed from and included January 1 (ie doy=1 on January 1) - the year is thereafter divided into 180 grid points.

Accounting for management costs in sensitivity analyses of matrix population models

Traditional sensitivity and elasticity analyses of matrix population models have been used to p inform management decisions, but they ignore the economic costs of manipulating vital rates. For exam le, the growth rate of a population is often most sensitive to changes in adult survival rate, but this does not mean that increasing that rate is the best option for managing the population because it may be much more expensive than other options. To explore how managers should optimize their manipulation of vital rates, we incorporated the cost of changing those rates into matrix population models. We derived analytic expressions for locations in parameter space where managers should shift between management of fecundity and survival, for the balance between fecundity and survival management at those boundaries, and for the allocation of management resources to sustain that optimal balance. For simple matrices, the optimal budget allocation can often be expressed as simple functions of vital rates and the relative costs of changing them. We applied our method to management of the Helmeted Honeyeater (Lichenostomus melanops cassidix; an endangered Australian bird) and the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) as examples. Our method showed that cost-efficient management of the Helmeted Honeyeater should focus on increasing fecundity via nest protection, whereas optimal koala management should focus on manipulating both fecundity and survival simultaneously, These findings are contrary to the cost-negligent recommendations of elasticity analysis, which would suggest focusing on managing survival in both cases. A further investigation of Helmeted Honeyeater management options, based on an individual-based model incorporating density dependence, spatial structure, and environmental stochasticity, confirmed that fecundity management was the most cost-effective strategy. Our results demonstrate that decisions that ignore economic factors will reduce management efficiency.

A tool for a formal pattern modeling language

This paper presents a formal but practical approach for defining and using design patterns. Initially we formalize the concepts commonly used in defining design patterns using Object-Z. We also formalize consistency constraints that must be satisfied when a pattern is deployed in a design model. Then we implement the pattern modeling language and its consistency constraints using an existing modeling framework, EMF, and incorporate the implementation as plug-ins to the Eclipse modeling environment. While the language is defined formally in terms of Object-Z definitions, the language is implemented in a practical environment. Using the plug-ins, users can develop precise pattern descriptions without knowing the underlying formalism, and can use the tool to check the validity of the pattern descriptions and pattern usage in design models. In this work, formalism brings precision to the pattern language definition and its implementation brings practicability to our pattern-based modeling approach.

QUALIDADE DE VIDA NO TRABALHO: COM A PALAVRA OS FUNCIONÁRIOS PÚBLICOS

O tema desta pesquisa é a Qualidade de Vida no Trabalho dos funcionários públicos da Secretaria de Saúde de Barra Mansa/RJ. Trata-se de um estudo de caso de natureza quanti-qualitativa, exploratória e descritiva que tem como objetivos compreender o que é a QVT na ótica do funcionário público, verificar que percepções ele possui acerca de sua própria QVT e, a partir daí, compreender se na esfera pública é possível construir um novo sentido para a QVT que se aproxime de um compromisso com a coletividade e com a vida. O modelo de QVT de Walton, a análise dos instrumentos de onze outras pesquisas realizadas em diversas instituições brasileiras e a coleta de sete depoimentos dos sujeitos pesquisados, acerca de suas histórias profissionais, suas impressões gerais sobre a QVT, orientaram a elaboração do instrumento utilizado nesta pesquisa. Coletaram-se 205 questionários válidos quantidade suficiente para a utilização da análise fatorial como método estatístico, por meio do software SPSS , além de mais dois depoimentos, em entrevistas abertas, os quais, somados aos sete já obtidos por ocasião da preparação do instrumento de pesquisa, foram utilizados na análise qualitativa que também se fez. Os principais resultados encontrados apontam que a QVT dos funcionários públicos pesquisados é de razoável a boa e que eles associam QVT a uma série de aspectos objetivos e subjetivos da vida no trabalho. Muitos deles estão presentes no modelo de Walton, porém emergiram alguns que vão além do que o modelo abrange. É exatamente nesta lacuna que parece ser possível construir novos sentidos para a QVT que a aproximam de um compromisso com a coletividade e com a vida, numa lógica diferente daquela individualista e instrumental que marcam sua origem no setor privado. A partir daí se abre a possibilidade de se pensar em políticas públicas participativas.

A Comunicação Mediada por Interfaces Digitais: a interação humana com os jogos digitais em celulares.

O trabalho é um estudo exploratório sobre o processamento de mensagens de entretenimento. O objetivo do trabalho foi propor e testar um modelo de processamento de mensagens dedicado à compreensão de jogos digitais. Para realizar tal tarefa realizou-se um extenso levantamento de técnicas de observação de usuários diante de softwares e mídias, para conhecer as qualidades e limitações de cada uma dessas técnicas, bem como de sua abordagem do problema. Também foi realizado um levantamento dos modelos de processamento de mensagens nas mídias tradicionais e nas novas mídias. Com isso foi possível propor um novo modelo de análise de processamento de mensagens de entretenimento. Uma vez criado o modelo teórico, fez-se preciso testar se os elementos propostos como participantes desse processo estavam corretos e se seriam capazes de capturar adequadamente as semelhanças e diferenças entre a interação entre jogadores e as diferentes mídias. Por essa razão, estruturou-se uma ferramenta de coleta de dados, que foi validada junto a designers de jogos digitais, uma vez que esses profissionais conhecem o processo de criação de um jogo, seus elementos e objetivos. Posteriormente, foi feito um primeiro teste, junto a praticantes de jogos digitais de diversas idades em computadores pessoais e TV digital interativa, a fim e verificar como os elementos do modelo relacionavam-se entre si. O teste seguinte fez a coleta de dados de praticantes de jogos digitais em aparelhos celulares, tendo como objetivo capturar como se dá a formação de uma experiência através do processamento da mensagem de entretenimento num meio cujas limitações são inúmeras: tamanho de tela e teclas, para citar algumas delas. Como resultado, verificou-se, por meio de testes estatísticos, que jogos praticados em meios como computadores pessoais atraem mais por seus aspectos estéticos, enquanto a apreciação de um jogo em aparelhos celulares depende muito mais de sua habilidade de manter a interação que um jogo praticado em PC. Com isso conclui-se que o processamento das mensagens de entretenimento depende da capacidade dos seus criadores em entender os limites de cada meio e usar adequadamente os elementos que compõe o ambiente de um jogo, para conseguir levar à apreciação do mesmo.(AU)

Avaliação de assimetria nas arcadas dentárias de indivíduos com oclusão normal e má oclusão de Classe II

A assimetria das arcadas dentárias constitui um assunto de grande importância estudado por profissionais de Ortodontia na elaboração de um diagnóstico correto, planejamento e execução de um tratamento ortodôntico bem sucedido. O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar o grau de assimetria das arcadas dentárias em indivíduos com oclusão normal e má oclusão de Classe II, divisão 1 e 2, bem como o dimorfismo sexual existente. Foram avaliados 180 pares de modelos de estudo de indivíduos do sexo masculino e feminino, na faixa etária de 12 a 21 anos, divididos em 3 grupos de 60 pares de modelos, de acordo com a má oclusão. Os grupos foram classificados em: Grupo 1 - indivíduos com oclusão normal, Grupo 2 - indivíduos com má oclusão de Classe II divisão 1 (Cl II 1), e Grupo 3 - indivíduos com má oclusão de Classe II divisão 2 (Cl II 2). Os modelos foram medidos utilizando-se um aparelho inédito, idealizado e fabricado exclusivamente para a análise de assimetria das arcadas dentárias. Para a análise de assimetria foram realizadas 2 medições angulares desvio de linha média (DLM), posicionamento dos caninos (PC) e 3 lineares distância dos caninos à rafe palatina (DC), distância inter-caninos (DIC), posicionamento dos primeiros molares no sentido ântero-posterior (PM). Concluiu-se que a ocorrência de assimetria nas arcadas dentárias independe da má oclusão. O Grupo 1 apresentou um menor grau de assimetria nas arcadas dentárias em relação aos grupos 2 e 3, os quais apresentaram um grau de assimetria semelhante. O grau de assimetria nas arcadas dentárias inferiores, nos 3 grupos, foi maior do que nas arcadas dentárias superiores. A direção do desvio da linha média apresentou uma correlação inversamente proporcional do lado em que o molar se apresentava mesializado, nas arcadas superior e inferior dos três grupos, com exceção da arcada superior no Grupo 2 (Classe II divisão 1). Houve dimorfismo sexual estatisticamente significante para algumas medidas, porém é importante considerar os baixos valores e a disposição, destas diferenças, entre as medidas realizadas, a qual revela ter se tratado de dados obtidos ao acaso.

Transfer of technology to China:A Scandinavian and European perspective

This paper examines the question of technology transfer from the perspective of techno-economic security and how companies respond to the possibility of losing competitive advantage through misappropriation or leakage. It explores transfers from Europe to China and addresses in particular the operations of Scandinavian companies within the context of the general picture for other European firms. Its point of departure is the authors' earlier research that looked at the motivations for transfer and the awareness of companies of techno-economic security issues. This has been supplemented by new data gathered by the authors from a number of Scandinavian companies in China. Specific actions have been identified and the ownership issue is introduced together with consideration of the role of the companies against the 'Ferdows' model. The analysis shows that the nature of the security question has changed together with the evolving context in which the companies are operating. In turn, the response of companies is contingent on a number of factors including the time horizon of the strategy for a unit in China and the nature of the strategy. It is also influenced by the form of ownership and management style in a particular organisation. © 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Three-factor models versus time series models:quantifying time-dependencies of interactions between stimuli in cell biology and psychobiology for short longitudinal data

Signal integration determines cell fate on the cellular level, affects cognitive processes and affective responses on the behavioural level, and is likely to be involved in psychoneurobiological processes underlying mood disorders. Interactions between stimuli may subjected to time effects. Time-dependencies of interactions between stimuli typically lead to complex cell responses and complex responses on the behavioural level. We show that both three-factor models and time series models can be used to uncover such time-dependencies. However, we argue that for short longitudinal data the three factor modelling approach is more suitable. In order to illustrate both approaches, we re-analysed previously published short longitudinal data sets. We found that in human embryonic kidney 293 cells cells the interaction effect in the regulation of extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) 1 signalling activation by insulin and epidermal growth factor is subjected to a time effect and dramatically decays at peak values of ERK activation. In contrast, we found that the interaction effect induced by hypoxia and tumour necrosis factor-alpha for the transcriptional activity of the human cyclo-oxygenase-2 promoter in HEK293 cells is time invariant at least in the first 12-h time window after stimulation. Furthermore, we applied the three-factor model to previously reported animal studies. In these studies, memory storage was found to be subjected to an interaction effect of the beta-adrenoceptor agonist clenbuterol and certain antagonists acting on the alpha-1-adrenoceptor / glucocorticoid-receptor system. Our model-based analysis suggests that only if the antagonist drug is administer in a critical time window, then the interaction effect is relevant.

Numerical modelling of devices and advanced transmission schemes embracing Raman effect

This thesis presents a theoretical investigation on applications of Raman effect in optical fibre communication as well as the design and optimisation of various Raman based devices and transmission schemes. The techniques used are mainly based on numerical modelling. The results presented in this thesis are divided into three main parts. First, novel designs of Raman fibre lasers (RFLs) based on Phosphosilicate core fibre are analysed and optimised for efficiency by using a discrete power balance model. The designs include a two stage RFL based on Phosphosilicate core fibre for telecommunication applications, a composite RFL for the 1.6 μm spectral window, and a multiple output wavelength RFL aimed to be used as a compact pump source for fiat gain Raman amplifiers. The use of Phosphosilicate core fibre is proven to effectively reduce the design complexity and hence leads to a better efficiency, stability and potentially lower cost. Second, the generalised Raman amplified gain model approach based on the power balance analysis and direct numerical simulation is developed. The approach can be used to effectively simulate optical transmission systems with distributed Raman amplification. Last, the potential employment of a hybrid amplification scheme, which is a combination between a distributed Raman amplifier and Erbium doped amplifier, is investigated by using the generalised Raman amplified gain model. The analysis focuses on the use of the scheme to upgrade a standard fibre network to 40 Gb/s system.

CADS*: Computer-Aided Development of self-* systems

We present the prototype tool CADS* for the computer-aided development of an important class of self-* systems, namely systems whose components can be modelled as Markov chains. Given a Markov chain representation of the IT components to be included into a self-* system, CADS* automates or aids (a) the development of the artifacts necessary to build the self-* system; and (b) their integration into a fully-operational self-* solution. This is achieved through a combination of formal software development techniques including model transformation, model-driven code generation and dynamic software reconfiguration.

Schematic structure and the modulation of propositions in economics forecasting text

Working within the framework of the branch of Linguistics known as discourse analysis, and more specifically within the current approach of genre analysis, this thesis presents an analysis of the English of economic forecasting. The language of economic forecasting is highly specialised and follows certain conventions of structure and style. This research project identifies these characteristics and explains them in terms of their communicative function. The work is based on a corpus of texts published in economic reports and surveys by major corporate bodies. These documents are targeted at an international expert readership familiar with this genre. The data is analysed at two broad levels: firstly, the macro-level of text structure which is described in terms of schema-theory, a currently influential model of analysis, and, secondly, the micro-level of authors' strategies for modulating the predictions which form the key move in the forecasting schema. The thesis aims to contribute to the newly developing field of genre analysis in a number of ways: firstly, by a coverage of a hitherto neglected but intrinsically interesting and important genre (Economic Forecasting); secondly, by testing the applicability of existing models of analysis at the level of schematic structure and proposing a genre-specific model; thirdly by offering insights into the nature of modulation of propositions which is often broadly classified as `hedging' or `modality', and which has been recently described as lq`an area for prolonged fieldwork'. This phenomenon is shown to be a key feature of this particular genre. It is suggested that this thesis, in addition to its contribution to the theory of genre analysis, provides a useful basis for work by teachers of English for Economics, an important area of English for Specific Purposes.

Efficacy of memantine for agitation in Alzheimer's dementia:a randomised double-blind placebo controlled trial

Background - Agitation in Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is common and associated with poor patient life-quality and carer distress. The best evidence-based pharmacological treatments are antipsychotics which have limited benefits with increased morbidity and mortality. There are no memantine trials in clinically significant agitation but post-hoc analyses in other populations found reduced agitation. We tested the primary hypothesis, memantine is superior to placebo for clinically significant agitation, in patients with moderate-to-severe AD. Methods and Findings - We recruited 153 participants with AD and clinically significant agitation from care-homes or hospitals for a double-blind randomised-controlled trial and 149 people started the trial of memantine versus placebo. The primary outcome was 6 weeks mixed model autoregressive analysis of Cohen-Mansfield Agitation Inventory (CMAI). Secondary outcomes were: 12 weeks CMAI; 6 and 12 weeks Neuropsychiatric symptoms (NPI), Clinical Global Impression Change (CGI-C), Standardised Mini Mental State Examination, Severe Impairment Battery. Using a mixed effects model we found no significant differences in the primary outcome, 6 weeks CMAI, between memantine and placebo (memantine lower -3.0; -8.3 to 2.2, p = 0.26); or 12 weeks CMAI; or CGI-C or adverse events at 6 or 12 weeks. NPI mean difference favoured memantine at weeks 6 (-6.9; -12.2 to -1.6; p = 0.012) and 12 (-9.6; -15.0 to -4.3 p = 0.0005). Memantine was significantly better than placebo for cognition. The main study limitation is that it still remains to be determined whether memantine has a role in milder agitation in AD. Conclusions - Memantine did not improve significant agitation in people with in moderate-to-severe AD. Future studies are urgently needed to test other pharmacological candidates in this group and memantine for neuropsychiatric symptoms.

Conceptual Foundations of Construction of the Models and Procedures for Prediction of the Avalanche-dangerous Situations Initiation

The conceptual foundations of the models and procedures for prediction of the avalanche-dangerous situations initiation are considered. The interpretation model for analysis of the avalanche-dangerous situations initiation based on the definition of probabilities of correspondence of studied parameters to the probabilistic distributions of avalanche-dangerous or avalanche non-dangerous situations is offered. The possibility to apply such a model to the real data is considered. The main approaches to the use of multiple representations for the avalanche dangerous situations initiation analysis are generalized.

The Structure of Information Dialogues: A Case Study

In the paper we consider the structure of information dialogues. Our study is based on Estonian dialogue corpus which contains two kinds of dialogues – transcriptions of spoken conversations, and dialogues collected with the Wizard of Oz method. We are using two ways for describing the structure of dialogues – a typology of dialogue acts, and a system of communicative strategies. We depart from the notion of communicative strategy introduced by Kristiina Jokinen in her Constructive Dialogue Model. The analysis of our empirical material shows that people are using similar communicative strategies in telephone conversations and computer interactions. In the same time, the structure of human-human conversation is much more complicated.