Sediment concentration prediction and statistical evaluation for annual load estimation

We consider the development of statistical models for prediction of constituent concentration of riverine pollutants, which is a key step in load estimation from frequent flow rate data and less frequently collected concentration data. We consider how to capture the impacts of past flow patterns via the average discounted flow (ADF) which discounts the past flux based on the time lapsed - more recent fluxes are given more weight. However, the effectiveness of ADF depends critically on the choice of the discount factor which reflects the unknown environmental cumulating process of the concentration compounds. We propose to choose the discount factor by maximizing the adjusted R-2 values or the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient. The R2 values are also adjusted to take account of the number of parameters in the model fit. The resulting optimal discount factor can be interpreted as a measure of constituent exhaustion rate during flood events. To evaluate the performance of the proposed regression estimators, we examine two different sampling scenarios by resampling fortnightly and opportunistically from two real daily datasets, which come from two United States Geological Survey (USGS) gaging stations located in Des Plaines River and Illinois River basin. The generalized rating-curve approach produces biased estimates of the total sediment loads by -30% to 83%, whereas the new approaches produce relatively much lower biases, ranging from -24% to 35%. This substantial improvement in the estimates of the total load is due to the fact that predictability of concentration is greatly improved by the additional predictors.

Influence of environmental and instrumental variables on the non-invasive prediction of Brix in pineapple using near infrared spectroscopy

The Brix content of pineapple fruit can be non-invasively predicted from the second derivative of near infrared reflectance spectra. Correlations obtained using a NIRSystems 6500 spectrophotometer through multiple linear regression and modified partial least squares analyses using a post-dispersive configuration were comparable with that from a pre-dispersive configuration in terms of accuracy (e.g. coefficient of determination, R2, 0.73; standard error of cross validation, SECV, 1.01°Brix). The effective depth of sample assessed was slightly greater using the post-dispersive technique (about 20 mm for pineapple fruit), as expected in relation to the higher incident light intensity, relative to the pre-dispersive configuration. The effect of such environmental variables as temperature, humidity and external light, and instrumental variables such as the number of scans averaged to form a spectrum, were considered with respect to the accuracy and precision of the measurement of absorbance at 876 nm, as a key term in the calibration for Brix, and predicted Brix. The application of post-dispersive near infrared technology to in-line assessment of intact fruit in a packing shed environment is discussed.

Image reconstruction with laterally truncated projections in helical cone-beam CT: Linear prediction based projection completion techniques

Lateral or transaxial truncation of cone-beam data can occur either due to the field of view limitation of the scanning apparatus or iregion-of-interest tomography. In this paper, we Suggest two new methods to handle lateral truncation in helical scan CT. It is seen that reconstruction with laterally truncated projection data, assuming it to be complete, gives severe artifacts which even penetrates into the field of view. A row-by-row data completion approach using linear prediction is introduced for helical scan truncated data. An extension of this technique known as windowed linear prediction approach is introduced. Efficacy of the two techniques are shown using simulation with standard phantoms. A quantitative image quality measure of the resulting reconstructed images are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed methods against an extension of a standard existing technique.

Phenology of Carpophilus spp. (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae)in stone fruit orchards as determined by pheromone trapping: Implications for prediction of crop damage

Traps baited with synthetic aggregation pheromone and fermenting bread dough were used to monitor seasonal incidence and abundance of the ripening fruit pests, Carpophilus hemipterus (L.), C. mutilatus Erichson and C. davidsoni Dobson in stone fruit orchards in the Leeton district of southern New South Wales during five seasons (1991-96). Adult beetles were trapped from September-May, but abundance varied considerably between years with the amount of rainfall in December-January having a major influence on population size and damage potential during the canning peach harvest (late February-March). Below average rainfall in December-January was associated with mean trap catches of < 10 beetles/trap/week in low dose pheromone traps during the harvest period in 1991/92 and 1993/94 and no reported damage to ripening fruit. Rainfall in December-January 1992/93 was more than double the average and mean trap catches ranged from 8-27 beetles/week during the harvest period with substantial damage to the peach crop. December-January rainfall was also above average in 1994/95 and 1995/96 and means of 50-300 beetles/trap/week were recorded in high dose pheromone traps during harvest periods. Carpophilus spp. caused economic damage to peach crops in both seasons. These data indicate that it may be possible to predict the likelihood of Carpophilus beetle damage to ripening stone fruit in inland areas of southern Australia, by routine pheromone-based monitoring of beetle populations and summer temperatures and rainfall.

Association of hearing impairment and subsequent driving mobility in older adults

- Purpose of the study Hearing impairment (HI) is associated with driving safety (e.g., increased crashes and poor on-road driving performance). However, little is known about HI and driving mobility. This study examined the longitudinal association of audiometric hearing with older adults’ driving mobility over three years. - Design and Methods Secondary data analyses were conducted of 500 individuals (63-90 years) from the Staying Keen in Later Life (SKILL) study. Hearing (pure tone average of 0.5, 1, and 2 kHz) was assessed in the better hearing ear and categorized into normal hearing <25 dB HL; mild HI 26-40 dB HL; or moderate and greater HI>41 dB HL. The Useful Field of View Test (UFOV) was used to estimate the risk for adverse driving events. MANCOVA compared driving mobility between HI levels across time, adjusting for age, sex, race, hypertension, and stroke. Adjusting for these same covariates, Cox regression analyses examined incidence of driving cessation by HI across three years. - Results Individuals with moderate or greater HI performed poorly on the UFOV, indicating increased risk for adverse driving events (p<.001). No significant differences were found among older adults with varying levels of HI for driving mobility (ps>.05), including driving cessation rates (p=.38), across time. - Implications Although prior research indicates older adults with HI may be at higher risk for crashes, they may not modify driving over time. Further exploration of this issue is required to optimize efforts to improve driving safety and mobility among older adults.

An experimental analysis of information acquisition in prediction markets

We study which factors in terms of trading environment and trader characteristics determine individual information acquisition in experimental asset markets. Traders with larger endowments, existing inconclusive information, lower risk aversion, and less experience in financial markets tend to acquire more information. Overall, we find that traders overacquire information, so that informed traders on average obtain negative profits net of information costs. Information acquisition and the associated losses do not diminish over time. This overacquisition phenomenon is inconsistent with predictions of rational expectations equilibrium, and we argue it resembles the overdissipation results from the contest literature. We find that more acquired information in the market leads to smaller differences between fundamental asset values and prices. Thus, the overacquisition phenomenon is a novel explanation for the high forecasting accuracy of prediction markets.

The influence of animal mobility on the assumption of uniform distances in aerial line-transect surveys

Line-transect distance sampling is a widely used method for estimating animal density from aerial surveys. Analysis of line-transect distance data usually relies on a requirement that the statistical distribution of distances of animal groups from the transect line is uniform. We show that this requirement is satisfied by the survey design if all other assumptions of distance sampling hold, but it can be violated by consistent survey problems such as responsive movement of the animals towards or away from the observer. We hypothesise that problems with the uniform requirement are unlikely to be encountered for immobile taxa, but might become substantial for species of high mobility. We test evidence for non-uniformity using double-observer distance data from two aerial surveys of five species with a spectrum of mobility capabilities and tendencies. No clear evidence against uniformity was found for crabeater seals or emperor penguins on the pack-ice in East Antarctica, while minor non-uniformity consistent with responsive movement up to 30 m was found for Adelie penguins. Strong evidence of either non-uniformity or a failure of the capture-recapture validating method was found for eastern grey kangaroos and red kangaroos in Queensland.

NIR model development and robustness in prediction of melon fruit total soluble solids

Near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) can be used for the on-line, non-invasive assessment of fruit for eating quality attributes such as total soluble solids (TSS). The robustness of multivariate calibration models, based on NIRS in a partial transmittance optical geometry, for the assessment of TSS of intact rockmelons (Cucumis melo) was assessed. The mesocarp TSS was highest around the fruit equator and increased towards the seed cavity. Inner mesocarp TSS levels decreased towards both the proximal and distal ends of the fruit, but more so towards the proximal end. The equatorial region of the fruit was chosen as representative of the fruit for near infrared assessment of TSS. The spectral window for model development was optimised at 695-1045 nm, and the data pre-treatment procedure was optimised to second-derivative absorbance without scatter correction. The 'global' modified partial least squares (MPLS) regression modelling procedure of WINISI (ver. 1.04) was found to be superior with respect to root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) and bias for model predictions of TSS across seasons, compared with the 'local' MPLS regression procedure. Updating of the model with samples selected randomly from the independent validation population demonstrated improvement in both RMSEP and bias with addition of approximately 15 samples.

Combining propensity and influence models for product adoption prediction

This paper studies the problem of selecting users in an online social network for targeted advertising so as to maximize the adoption of a given product. In previous work, two families of models have been considered to address this problem: direct targeting and network-based targeting. The former approach targets users with the highest propensity to adopt the product, while the latter approach targets users with the highest influence potential – that is users whose adoption is most likely to be followed by subsequent adoptions by peers. This paper proposes a hybrid approach that combines a notion of propensity and a notion of influence into a single utility function. We show that targeting a fixed number of high-utility users results in more adoptions than targeting either highly influential users or users with high propensity.

Evaluation Of Diffusion-Coefficient And Ionic Mobility In (Nh4)4fe(Cn)6.1.5 H2o

The diffusion coefficient, D, and the ionic mobility, μ, in the protonic conductor ammonium ferrocyanide hydrate have been determined by the isothermal transient ionic current method. D is also determined from the time dependence of the build up of potential across the samples and theretical expressions describing this build up in terms of double exponential dependence on time are obtained. The values obtained are D=3.875×10−11m2s−1 and μ=1.65×10−9 m2V−1s−1.

Shaping global teacher identity in a short-term mobility programme

This article explores the shaping of Australian and Malaysian pre-service teachers’ possible selves in a short-term mobility programme. With the theory of possible selves, individuals imagine who they will become based on their past and current selves. The focus of the research was on pre-service teachers’ possible selves as global and culturally responsive teachers. The experiential learning through participation in the programme allowed participants to consider their future possible selves as teachers with a deeper understanding of diverse learners’ needs and how they might strive to address these needs in their own classrooms. The scaffolding of reflections in the programme encouraged the pre-service teachers to take on multiple perspectives, to step outside their comfort zones and in many ways to see the world from different eyes. The research found that through experiential learning in the short-term mobility programme both the Australian and Malaysian pre-service teachers gained in positioning their cultural selves currently and as future teachers, suggesting that there is merit in utilising the theory of possible selves in future research in the area of shaping teacher identity.

New approach to improved detection and tracking performance in track-while-scan radars. Part 3: Performance prediction, optimisation and testing

The paper presents, in three parts, a new approach to improve the detection and tracking performance of a track-while-scan radar. Part 1 presents a review of the current status of the subject. Part 2 details the new approach. It shows how a priori information provided by the tracker can be used to improve detection. It also presents a new multitarget tracking algorithm. In the present Part, analytical derivations are presented for assessing, a priori, the performance of the TWS radar system. True track initiation, false track initiation, true track continuation and false track deletion characteristics have been studied. It indicates how the various thresholds can be chosen by the designer to optimise performance. Simulation results are also presented.

Mobility and security: the perceived benefits of citizenship for resettled young people from refugee backgrounds

In recent decades, the meaning and value of formal state citizenship has shifted dramatically. In the same period, scholarship on citizenship has drawn attention to the proliferation of alternative forms of sub-, supra- and transnational citizenship, at times obscuring the ongoing importance of formal state citizenship. For refugees, however, formal state citizenship remains a critical and widely shared goal. Drawing on interviews with 51 young people from refugee backgrounds in Melbourne, Australia, this article explores the intersecting themes of mobility and security that were identified by participants as the most important benefits of acquiring formal state citizenship in the country of resettlement. In contrast to the insecurity of forced migration, formal state citizenship provides a privileged mobility that enables refugee-background youth to maintain and create transnational identities and attachments and to be protected while doing so, while also granting a secure status within the nation state and insurance against further displacement in an uncertain future. In offering these forms of mobility and security, formal state citizenship contributes to a sense of ontological security among refugee-background youth, providing an important foundation for building national and transnational futures.

Frequency and temperature-dependent mobility of a charged carrier on a randomly interrupted strand

A randomly interrupted strand model of a one-dimensional conductor is considered. An exact analytical expression is obtained for the temperature-dependent ac mobility for a finite segment drawn at random, taking into account the reflecting barriers at the two open ends. The real part of mobility shows a broad resonance as a function of both frequency and temperature, and vanishes quadratically in the dc limit. The frequency (temperature) maximum shifts to higher values for higher temperatures (frequencies).