Military crisis management in the next decade (2020-2030) : inducing consent or relying on compliance?

The most outstanding conceptual challenge of modern crisis management is the principle of consent. It is not a problem only at the operational level - it challenges the entire decision-making structures of crisis management operations. In post-cold war times and especially in the 21st century, there has been a transition from peacekeeping with limited size and scope towards large and complex peace operations. This shift has presented peace operations with a dilemma. How to balance between maintaining consent for peace operations, whilst being able to use military force to coerce those attempting to wreck peace processes? To address such a dilemma, this research aims to promote understanding, on what can be achieved by military crisis management operations (peace support operations) in the next decade. The research concentrates on the focal research question: Should military components induce consent or rely on the compliance of conflicting parties in crisis management operations of the next decade (2020 – 2030)? The focus is on military – political strategic level considerations, and especially on the time before political decisions to commit to a crisis management operation. This study does not focus on which actor or organisation should intervene. The framework of this thesis derives from the so called ‘peacebuilding space’, the scope of peace operations and spoiler theory. Feasibility of both peace enforcement and peacekeeping in countering future risk conditions are analysed in this framework. This future-orientated qualitative research uses the Delphi-method with a panel of national and international experts. Citation analysis supports identification of relevant reference material, which consists of contemporary literature, the Delphi-questionnaires and interviews. The research process followed three main stages. In the first stage, plausible future scenarios and risk conditions were identified with the Delphi-panel. In the second stage, operating environments for peace support operations were described and consequent hypotheses formulated. In the third stage, these hypotheses were tested on the Delphi-panel. The Delphi-panel is sufficiently wide and diverse to produce plausible yet different insights. The research design utilised specifically military crisis management and peace operations theories. This produced various and relevant normative considerations. Therefore, one may argue that this research; which is based on accepted contemporary theory, hypotheses derived thereof and utilising an expert panel, contributes to the realm of peace support operations. This research finds that some degree of peace enforcement will be feasible and necessary in at least the following risk conditions: failed governance; potential spillover of ethnic, religious, ideological conflict; vulnerability of strategic chokepoints and infrastructures in ungoverned spaces; as well as in territorial and extra-territorial border disputes. In addition, some form of peace enforcement is probably necessary in risk conditions pertaining to: extremism of marginalised groups; potential disputes over previously uninhabited and resource-rich territories; and interstate rivalry. Furthermore, this research finds that peacekeeping measures will be feasible and necessary in at least risk conditions pertaining to: potential spillover of ethnic, religious, ideological conflict; uncontrolled migration; consequences from environmental catastrophes or changes; territorial and extra-territorial border disputes; and potential disputes over previously uninhabited and resource-rich territories. These findings are all subject to both generic and case specific preconditions that must exist for a peace support operation. Some deductions could be derived from the research findings. Although some risk conditions may appear illogical, understanding the underlying logic of a conflict is fundamental to understanding transition in crisis management. Practitioners of crisis management should possess cognizance of such transition. They must understand how transition should occur from threat to safety, from conflict to stability – and so forth. Understanding transition is imperative for managing the dynamic evolution of preconditions, which begins at the outset of a peace support operation. Furthermore, it is pertinent that spoilers are defined from a peace process point of view. If spoilers are defined otherwise, it changes the nature of an operation towards war, where the logic is breaking the will of an enemy - and surrender. In peace support operations, the logic is different: actions towards spoilers are intended to cause transition towards consent - not defeat. Notwithstanding future developments, history continues to provide strategic education. However, the distinction is that the risk conditions occur in novel futures. Hence, lessons learned from the past should be fitted to the case at hand. This research shows compelling evidence that swaying between intervention optimism and pessimism is not substantiated. Both peace enforcement and peacekeeping are sine qua non for successful military crisis management in the next decade.

A modern history, from the time of Luther to the fall of Napoleon

UANL

A political history of modern Europe : from the reformation to the present day

UANL

Course of the history of modern philosophy

UANL

The history of modern Europe: with a view of the progress of society from the rise of the modern kingdom to the peace of Paris, in 1763

UANL

Symbolic geography in John Ruskin's modern painters, Volumes III, IV, V.

Modern Painters vol. III, IV et V est une œuvre tripartite développée après 1850, en synchronie avec la guerre de Crimée (1854-56), la répression de la révolte indienne (1857-59) et la deuxième guerre d’indépendance d’Italie (1859). Marqué par ces événements politiques, Ruskin met en œuvre une stratégie complexe pour configurer dans un langage symbolique les frontières et les taxonomies impériales de l’espace européen. Il développe des stratégies de présentation qui combinent le texte et les illustrations pour créer des allégories mentales et visuelles, construites à partir des stéréotypes littéraires et culturels véhiculés dans l’espace britannique. L’auteur met ses derniers volumes de Modern Painters sous le signe de « la crise de la civilisation » représentée par les conflagrations de Crimée, d’Inde et d’Italie, en exprimant son soutien pour la nouvelle alliance entre l’Angleterre et la France. Un autre motif est son obsession avec la réforme sociale via un retour aux valeurs chrétiennes traditionnelles.

Edexcel GCSE history A : the making of the modern world. Unit 2A : Germany 1918-39. Student book.

Es una de las cuatro unidades del curso de preparación para los exámenes del General Certificate Secondary Education (GCSE). Estos temas explican los acontecimientos históricos sucedidos en los últimos cien años y ayudan a entender los problemas del mundo actual. Esta unidad se centra en el estudio de la República de Weimar, el asombroso ascenso de Hitler al poder y la creación de un estado policial en la Alemania nazi. Una parte del libro se dedica al repaso y la preparación del examen.

Edexcel GCSE history A : the making of the modern world. Unit 2B : Russia 1917-39. Student book.

Es una de las cuatro unidades del curso de preparación para los exámenes del General Certificate Secondary Education (GCSE). Estos temas explican los acontecimientos históricos sucedidos en los últimos cien años y ayudan a entender los problemas del mundo actual. Esta unidad estudia los cambios producidos en Rusia entre la revolución de 1917 y el comienzo de la Segunda Guerra Mundial, así como los cambios económicos y sociales derivados de la victoria del gobierno comunista y la dictadura de Stalin. Una parte del libro se dedica al repaso y la preparación del examen.

Edexcel GCSE history A : the making of the modern world. Unit 2C : the USA 1919-41. Student book.

Es una de las cuatro unidades del curso de preparación para los exámenes del General Certificate Secondary Education (GCSE). Estos temas explican los acontecimientos históricos sucedidos en los últimos cien años y ayudan a entender los problemas del mundo actual. Esta unidad trata los cambios ocurridos Estados Unidos en el período comprendido entre el final de la Primera Guerra Mundial y el principio de la Segunda Guerra Mundial, caracterizado por un boom económico seguido de una depresión y la elección de un nuevo presidente con nuevas políticas para resolver la crisis. Una parte del libro se dedica al repaso y la preparación del examen.

Edexcel GCSE history A : the making of the modern world. Unit 3A : war and the transformation of british society c. 1903-28. Student book.

Es una de las cuatro unidades del curso de preparación para los exámenes del General Certificate Secondary Education (GCSE). Esta unidad 3 es diferente de las dos unidades anteriores pues sus temas se basan en comprender la importancia de las fuentes en el estudio de la historia y como pueden ser interpretadas de varias maneras, lo que lleva a los historiadores a emitir juicios sobre la utilidad y fiabilidad de la información que proporcionan. Asimismo, se explica que en esta parte del examen del GCSE se conjugan los conocimientos y la información sobre los hechos con los juicios sobre las fuentes históricas.

Edexcel GCSE history A : the making of the modern world. Unit 3B : war and the transformation of british society c. 1931-51. Student book.

Es una de las cuatro unidades del curso de preparación para los exámenes del General Certificate Secondary Education (GCSE). Esta unidad 3 es diferente de las dos unidades anteriores pues sus temas se basan en comprender la importancia de las fuentes en el estudio de la historia y como pueden ser interpretadas de varias maneras, lo que lleva a los historiadores a emitir juicios sobre la utilidad y fiabilidad de la información que proporcionan. Asimismo, se explica que en esta parte del examen del GCSE se conjugan los conocimientos y la información sobre los hechos con los juicios sobre las fuentes históricas.

Edexcel GCSE history A : the making of the modern world. Unit 3C : a divided union? : the USA 1945-70. Student book.

Es una de las cuatro unidades del curso de preparación para los exámenes del General Certificate Secondary Education (GCSE). Esta unidad 3 es diferente de las dos unidades anteriores pues sus temas se basan en comprender la importancia de las fuentes en el estudio de la historia y como pueden ser interpretadas de varias maneras, lo que lleva a los historiadores a emitir juicios sobre la utilidad y fiabilidad de la información que proporcionan. Asimismo, se explica que en esta parte del examen del GCSE se conjugan los conocimientos y la información sobre los hechos con los juicios sobre las fuentes históricas.