Optimal dispatch of spinning reserve in a competitive electricity market using genetic algorithms

Ancillary service plays a key role in maintaining operation security of the power system in a competitive electricity market. The spinning reserve is one of the most important ancillary services that should be provided effectively. This paper presents the design of an integrated market for energy and spinning reserve service with particular emphasis on coordinated dispatch of bulk power and spinning reserve services. A new market dispatching mechanism has been developed to minimize the cost of service while maintaining system security. Genetic algorithms (GA) are used for finding the global optimal solutions for this dispatch problem. Case studies and corresponding analyses have been carried out to demonstrate and discuss the efficiency and usefulness of the proposed method.

Impact of liberalization on efficiency and productivity of sugar industry in Kenya

Purpose – The data used in this study is for the period 1980-2000. Almost midway through this period (in 1992), the Kenyan government liberalized the sugar industry and the role of the market increased, while the government's role with respect to control of prices, imports and other aspects in the sector declined. This exposed the local sugar manufacturers to external competition from other sugar producers, especially from the COMESA region. This study aims to find whether there were any changes in efficiency of production between the two periods (pre and post-liberalization). Design/methodology/approach – The study utilized two methodologies to efficiency estimation: data envelopment analysis (DEA) and the stochastic frontier. DEA uses mathematical programming techniques and does not impose any functional form on the data. However, it attributes all deviation from the mean function to inefficiencies. The stochastic frontier utilizes econometric techniques. Findings – The test for structural differences in the two periods does not show any statistically significant differences between the two periods. However, both methodologies show a decline in efficiency levels from 1992, with the lowest period experienced in 1998. From then on, efficiency levels began to increase. Originality/value – To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first paper to use both methodologies in the sugar industry in Kenya. It is shown that in industries where the noise (error) term is minimal (such as manufacturing), the DEA and stochastic frontier give similar results.

Market orientation in the service sector of the transition economies of central Europe

The Narver and Slater market orientation scale is tested in the context of service firms in the transition economies of central Europe and found to be both valid and reliable. The survey examined levels of market orientation in 205 business to business services companies and 141 consumer services companies in Hungary, Poland and Slovenia. As predicted by the predominantly western marketing literature, those service firms with higher levels of market orientation; were more often found in turbulent, rapidly changing markets; were more likely to pursue longer term market building goals rather than short term efficiency objectives; more likely to pursue differentiated positioning through offering superior levels of service compared to competitors; and also performed better on both financial and market based criteria. A number of different business approaches, however, are evident in the transition economies suggesting that other business orientations may co-exist with a market orientation creating a richer and more complex set of organizational drivers.

Is competition really bad news for cooperatives? Some empirical evidence for Italian producers' cooperatives

In this paper, we analyse the nature of the relationship between market power and technical efficiency for producers' cooperatives. More specifically we test two hypotheses: first, we evaluate the extent to which increasing market pressure may help producers' cooperatives to improve technical efficiency to guarantee positive profits; second, we test whether higher technical efficiency induces producers' cooperatives to have a larger market share. These hypotheses are tested on a sample of Italian conventional and cooperative firms for the Wine Production and Processing sector, using both frontier analysis and dynamic panel techniques. The results support the hypothesis that increasing market pressure can affect positively the cooperativeś efficiency, while gains in technical efficiency do not seem to have any impact on the cooperatives' market share. © 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Profit sharing, technical efficiency change and finance constraints

This paper analyses the mechanisms through which profit-sharing schemes may induce debt constrained firms to improve technical efficiency over time to guarantee positive profits. This hypothesis is first formalised in a partial equilibrium framework and then is tested on a sample of Italian traditional and cooperative firms. Technical efficiency change indexes are computed by DEA. These are regressed on a measure of finance constraints to analyse their impact on firms’ efficiency growth. The results support the hypothesis that a restriction in the availability of financial resources can affect positively the growth in efficiency in firms with profit-sharing schemes.

The determinants of firms' performance:can finance constraints improve technical efficiency?

This paper analyses the mechanisms through which binding finance constraints can induce debt-constrained firms to improve technical efficiency to guarantee positive profits. This hypothesis is tested on a sample of firms belonging to the Italian manufacturing. Technical efficiency scores are computed by estimating parametric production frontiers using the one stage approach as in Battese and Coelli [Battese, G., Coelli, T., 1995. A model for technical efficiency effects in a stochastic frontier production function for panel data. Empirical Economics 20, 325-332]. The results support the hypothesis that a restriction in the availability of financial resources can affect positively efficiency. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Total factor productivity and the spillover hypothesis: some new evidence

In this paper I test the spillover hypothesis of the endogenous growth literature on a sample of manufacturing firms in Italy, 1989–1994, using a new approach based on the Malmquist index. First, I measure the productivity growth registered by the high- and non-high-tech firms computing the Malmquist index with DEA. I decompose it into technical change and technical efficiency change. Then I test whether the technical change registered by high-tech firms affects productivity growth of non-high-tech firms, after controlling for factors which can potentially affect productivity growth.

The efficiency of encapsulation within surface rehydrated polymersomes

The key to the use of polymersomes as effective molecular delivery systems is in the ability to design processing routes that can efficiently encapsulate the molecular payload. We have evaluated various surface rehydration mechanisms for encapsulation, in each case characterizing the morphologies formed using DLS and confocal microscopy as well as determining the encapsulation efficiency for the hydrophilic dye Rhodamine B. In contrast to bulk methods, where the encapsulation efficiencies are low, we find that higher efficiencies can be obtained by the rehydration of thin films. We relate these results to the non-equilibrium mechanisms that underlie vesicle formation and discuss how an understanding of these mechanisms can help optimize encapsulation efficiencies. Our conclusion is that, even considering the good encapsulation efficiency, surface methods are still unsuitable for the massive scale-up needed when applied to commercial mass market molecular delivery scenarios. However, targeting more specialized applications for high value ingredients (like pharmaceuticals) might be more feasible.

An empirical investigation of the effect of rights issue announcements on share returns and the determinants of abnormal returns on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange

This thesis examines the effect of rights issue announcements on stock prices by companies listed on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE) between 1987 to 1996. The emphasis is to report whether the KLSE is semi strongly efficient with respect to the announcement of rights issues and to check whether the implications of corporate finance theories on the effect of an event can be supported in the context of an emerging market. Once the effect is established, potential determinants of abnormal returns identified by previous empirical work and corporate financial theory are analysed. By examining 70 companies making clean rights issue announcements, this thesis will hopefully shed light on some important issues in long term corporate financing. Event study analysis is used to check on the efficiency of the Malaysian stock market; while cross-sectional regression analysis is executed to identify possible explanators of the rights issue announcements' effect. To ensure the results presented are not contaminated, econometric and statistical issues raised in both analyses have been taken into account. Given the small amount of empirical research conducted in this part of the world, the results of this study will hopefully be of use to investors, security analysts, corporate financial managements, regulators and policy makers as well as those who are interested in capital market based research of an emerging market. It is found that the Malaysian stock market is not semi strongly efficient since there exists a persistent non-zero abnormal return. This finding is not consistent with the hypothesis that security returns adjust rapidly to reflect new information. It may be possible that the result is influenced by the sample, consisting mainly of below average size companies which tend to be thinly traded. Nevertheless, these issues have been addressed. Another important issue which has emerged from the study is that there is some evidence to suggest that insider trading activity existed in this market. In addition to these findings, when the rights issue announcements' effect is compared to the implications of corporate finance theories in predicting the sign of abnormal returns, the signalling model, asymmetric information model, perfect substitution hypothesis and Scholes' information hypothesis cannot be supported.

Hand in hand:privatising five star hotels in Egypt through the stock market will enhance the latter's role as well as set an example of the benefits that could be gained from privatisation

This thesis examines the possibility of privatising public owned five star hotels in Egypt through its stock market in order to give a boost to the Egyptian privatisation programme and to help activate its stock market. To explore these aspects, two main technical exercises were executed. First the writer constructed, for the first time in Egypt, a daily price index for Cairo Stock Exchange and an index for the tourism sector, in order to analyze the efficiency of the capital market. This technical analysis showed that Cairo stock exchange is inefficient, stagnant and undergoes minimal fluctuations, especially when compared to other developed and emerging markets. Second, given the importance and complexity of the valuation of SOEs prior to their privatisation, a sample of three five star hotels that could be prime candidates for privatisation via the stock market in Egypt were selected and a detailed financial analysis for the three hotels was concluded. The result was a valuation range for the three hotels using various valuation methods. Nevertheless it was found out that the final value of hotels will be determined by the market itself. Depite the inefficiency of Cairo Stock Exchange, the thesis did not rule out privatisation through the stock market. On the contrary it cited several examples of developing countries that were able to successfully privatise some of their SOEs via their rudimentary capital markets. Finally, the thesis recommended that five star hotels could be pefect candidates for privatisation via the stock market in Egypt. This is because five star hotels are profitable, privately managed, non strategic and not highly capital intensive businesses. In addition, they do not suffer from overstaffing and the industry in which they operate i.e. tourism sector, has high growth prospects and is of an international nature. Therefore it is anticipated that privatisation of five star hotels can attract a lot of investors because of the relatively high returns. This in turn will help activate and popularize the capital market in Egypt. At the same time the benefits of privatisation would be more visible which will give more momentum to the privatisation programme and make it more politically acceptable.

Exchange rate economic exposure and hedging:the significance of currency options

This thesis focuses on the theoretical examination of the exchange rate economic (operating) exposure within the context of the theory of the firm, and proposes some hedging solutions using currency options. The examination of economic exposure is based on such parameters as firms' objectives, industry structure and production cost efficiency. In particular, it examines an hypothetical exporting firm with costs in domestic currency, which faces competition from foreign firms in overseas markets and has a market share expansion objective. Within this framework, the hypothesis is established that economic exposure, portrayed in a diagram connecting export prices and real exchange rates, is asymmetric (i.e. the negative effects depreciation are higher than the positive effects of a currency depreciation). In this case, export business can be seen as a real option, given by exporting firms to overseas customer. Different scenarios about the asymmetry hypothesis can be derived for different assumptions about the determinants of economic exposure. Having established the asymmetry hypothesis, the hedging against this exposure is analysed. The hypothesis is established, that a currency call option should be used in hedging against asymmetric economic exposure. Further, some advanced currency options stategies are discussed, and their use in hedging several scenarios of exposure is indicated, establishing the hypothesis that, the optimal options strategy is a function of the determinants of exposure. Some extensions on the theoretical analysis are examined. These include the hedging of multicurrency exposure using options, and the exposure of a purely domestic firm facing import competition. The empirical work addresses two issues: the empirical validity of the asymmetry hypothesis and the examination of the hedging effectiveness of currency options.

Investement appraisal in a deregulated electricity market

This thesis analyses the impact of deregulation on the theory and practice of investment decision making in the electricity sector and appraises the likely effects on its long term future inefficiency. Part I describes the market and its shortcomings in promoting an optimal generation margin and plant mix and in reducing prices through competition. A full size operational model is developed to simulate hour by hour operation of the market and analyse its features. A relationship is established between the SMP and plant mix and between the LOLP and plant margin and it is shown bow a theoretical optimum can be derived when the combined LOLP payments and the capital costs of additional generation reach a minimum. A comparison of prices against an idealised bulk supply tariff is used to show how energy prices have risen some 12% in excess of what might have occurred under the CEGB regime. This part concludes with proposals to improve the marlmarket conditions and these are tested against the actual investment decisions since deregulation to demonstrate their appropriateness. It is shown that the current market mechanisms could lead to suboptimal investment. Part 3 discusses the essential role of transmission in enabling competition and reviews worldwide practices illustrating little consensus on charging for its use. Basic costing principles are described and a new model is developed to demonstrate bow a generator may strike supply agreements either side of an interconnector to influence prices so as to maximise his income. The optimal pricing strategy for the transmitter is also derived and consumer response is simulated .The concept of transmission uplift is developed and the operational model is extended to include transmission constraints and then used to establish monthly incremental transmission constraint cost functions. It is shown how these can be used to appraise investment options and optimally plan outages. Part 4 concludes by discussing the regulatory framework and its limitations in improving efficiency or encouraging the optimum levels of investment. The principal findings of the thesis are reviewed and potential market improvement are described. This part concludes with a discussion of alternative market structures and likely future developments.

The emergence of knowledge exchange:an agent-based model of a software market

We investigate knowledge exchange among commercial organizations, the rationale behind it, and its effects on the market. Knowledge exchange is known to be beneficial for industry, but in order to explain it, authors have used high-level concepts like network effects, reputation, and trust. We attempt to formalize a plausible and elegant explanation of how and why companies adopt information exchange and why it benefits the market as a whole when this happens. This explanation is based on a multiagent model that simulates a market of software providers. Even though the model does not include any high-level concepts, information exchange naturally emerges during simulations as a successful profitable behavior. The conclusions reached by this agent-based analysis are twofold: 1) a straightforward set of assumptions is enough to give rise to exchange in a software market, and 2) knowledge exchange is shown to increase the efficiency of the market.

AstonCAT-plus:an efficient specialist for the TAC market design tournament

This paper describes the strategies used by AstonCAT-Plus, the post-tournament version of the specialist designed for the TAC Market Design Tournament 2010. It details how AstonCATPlus accepts shouts, clears market, sets transaction prices and charges fees. Through empirical evaluation, we show that AstonCAT-Plus not only outperforms AstonCAT (tournament version) significantly but also achieves the second best overall score against some top entrants of the competition. In particular, it achieves the highest allocative efficiency, transaction success rate and average trader profit among all the specialists in our controlled experiments.

Econometrics of yield spreads in the money market:a note

The literature on bond markets and interest rates has focused largely on the term structure of interest rates, specifically, on the so-called expectations hypothesis. At the same time, little is known about the nature of the spread of the interest rates in the money market beyond the fact that such spreads are generally unstable. However, with the evolution of complex financial instruments, it has become imperative to identify the time series process that can help one accurately forecast such spreads into the future. This article explores the nature of the time series process underlying the spread between three-month and one-year US rates, and concludes that the movements in this spread over time is best captured by a GARCH(1,1) process. It also suggests the use of a relatively long term measure of interest rate volatility as an explanatory variable. This exercise has gained added importance in view of the revelation that GARCH based estimates of option prices consistently outperform the corresponding estimates based on the stylized Black-Scholes algorithm.