Cascading events triggering industrial accidents: quantitative assessment of NaTech and domino scenarios

The so called cascading events, which lead to high-impact low-frequency scenarios are rising concern worldwide. A chain of events result in a major industrial accident with dreadful (and often unpredicted) consequences. Cascading events can be the result of the realization of an external threat, like a terrorist attack a natural disaster or of “domino effect”. During domino events the escalation of a primary accident is driven by the propagation of the primary event to nearby units, causing an overall increment of the accident severity and an increment of the risk associated to an industrial installation. Also natural disasters, like intense flooding, hurricanes, earthquake and lightning are found capable to enhance the risk of an industrial area, triggering loss of containment of hazardous materials and in major accidents. The scientific community usually refers to those accidents as “NaTechs”: natural events triggering industrial accidents. In this document, a state of the art of available approaches to the modelling, assessment, prevention and management of domino and NaTech events is described. On the other hand, the relevant work carried out during past studies still needs to be consolidated and completed, in order to be applicable in a real industrial framework. New methodologies, developed during my research activity, aimed at the quantitative assessment of domino and NaTech accidents are presented. The tools and methods provided within this very study had the aim to assist the progress toward a consolidated and universal methodology for the assessment and prevention of cascading events, contributing to enhance safety and sustainability of the chemical and process industry.

Acute stress regulates vasotocinergic and isotocinergic systems in the gilthead sea bream (Sparus aurata L.).

The hypothalamus-pituitary-interrenal axis is involved in stress response regulation. In addition, arginine vasotocin (AVT) and isotocin (IT) are also considered as important players in this stress regulation. The present study assessed, using the teleost gilthead sea bream (Sparus aurata) as a biological model, hypothalamic mRNA expression changes of AVT and IT and their receptors at hepatic level after an acute stress situation. Specimens were submitted to air for 3 min and place back in their respective tanks after that, being sampled at different times (15 min, 30 min, 1, 2, 4 and 8 hours post-stress) in order to study the time course response. Plasma cortisol values increased after few minutes post-exposure, decreasing during the experimental time while a metabolic reorganization occurred in both plasmatic and hepatic levels. At hypothalamic level, acute stress affects mRNA expression of AVT and IT precursors, as well as hepatic expression of their receptors, suggesting the involvement of both vasotocinergic and isotocinergic systems in the acute stress response. Our results demonstrate the activation and involvement of both endocrine pathways in the regulation of metabolic and stress systems of Sparus aurata, which is stated, at least, through changes in mRNA expression levels of these genes analysed.

Consensus Document of the International Union of Angiology (IUA)-2013. Current concept on the management of arterio-venous management

Arterio-venous malformations (AVMs) are congenital vascular malformations (CVMs) that result from birth defects involving the vessels of both arterial and venous origins, resulting in direct communications between the different size vessels or a meshwork of primitive reticular networks of dysplastic minute vessels which have failed to mature to become 'capillary' vessels termed "nidus". These lesions are defined by shunting of high velocity, low resistance flow from the arterial vasculature into the venous system in a variety of fistulous conditions. A systematic classification system developed by various groups of experts (Hamburg classification, ISSVA classification, Schobinger classification, angiographic classification of AVMs,) has resulted in a better understanding of the biology and natural history of these lesions and improved management of CVMs and AVMs. The Hamburg classification, based on the embryological differentiation between extratruncular and truncular type of lesions, allows the determination of the potential of progression and recurrence of these lesions. The majority of all AVMs are extra-truncular lesions with persistent proliferative potential, whereas truncular AVM lesions are exceedingly rare. Regardless of the type, AV shunting may ultimately result in significant anatomical, pathophysiological and hemodynamic consequences. Therefore, despite their relative rarity (10-20% of all CVMs), AVMs remain the most challenging and potentially limb or life-threatening form of vascular anomalies. The initial diagnosis and assessment may be facilitated by non- to minimally invasive investigations such as duplex ultrasound, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), MR angiography (MRA), computerized tomography (CT) and CT angiography (CTA). Arteriography remains the diagnostic gold standard, and is required for planning subsequent treatment. A multidisciplinary team approach should be utilized to integrate surgical and non-surgical interventions for optimum care. Currently available treatments are associated with significant risk of complications and morbidity. However, an early aggressive approach to elimiate the nidus (if present) may be undertaken if the benefits exceed the risks. Trans-arterial coil embolization or ligation of feeding arteries where the nidus is left intact, are incorrect approaches and may result in proliferation of the lesion. Furthermore, such procedures would prevent future endovascular access to the lesions via the arterial route. Surgically inaccessible, infiltrating, extra-truncular AVMs can be treated with endovascular therapy as an independent modality. Among various embolo-sclerotherapy agents, ethanol sclerotherapy produces the best long term outcomes with minimum recurrence. However, this procedure requires extensive training and sufficient experience to minimize complications and associated morbidity. For the surgically accessible lesions, surgical resection may be the treatment of choice with a chance of optimal control. Preoperative sclerotherapy or embolization may supplement the subsequent surgical excision by reducing the morbidity (e.g. operative bleeding) and defining the lesion borders. Such a combined approach may provide an excellent potential for a curative result. Conclusion. AVMs are high flow congenital vascular malformations that may occur in any part of the body. The clinical presentation depends on the extent and size of the lesion and can range from an asymptomatic birthmark to congestive heart failure. Detailed investigations including duplex ultrasound, MRI/MRA and CT/CTA are required to develop an appropriate treatment plan. Appropriate management is best achieved via a multi-disciplinary approach and interventions should be undertaken by appropriately trained physicians.

Simulated agricultural subsistence, timing of transition, and percentage of immigrant farmers

Farming and herding were introduced to Europe from the Near East and Anatolia; there are, however, considerable arguments about the mechanisms of this transition. Were it the people who moved and either outplaced, or admixed with, the indigenous hunter-gatherer groups? Or was it material and information that moved---the Neolithic Package---consisting of domesticated plants and animals and the knowledge of their use? The latter process is commonly referred to as cultural diffusion and the former as demic diffusion. Despite continuous and partly combined efforts by archaeologists, anthropologists, linguists, palaeontologists and geneticists, a final resolution of the debate has not yet been reached. In the present contribution we interpret results from the Global Land Use and technological Evolution Simulator (GLUES). GLUES is a mathematical model for regional sociocultural development, embedded in the geoenvironmental context, during the Holocene. We demonstrate that the model is able to realistically hindcast the expansion speed and the inhomogeneous space-time evolution of the transition to agropastoralism in western Eurasia. In contrast to models that do not resolve endogenous sociocultural dynamics, our model describes and explains how and why the Neolithic advanced in stages. We uncouple the mechanisms of migration and information exchange and also of migration and the spread of agropastoralism. We find that: (1) An indigenous form of agropastoralism could well have arisen in certain Mediterranean landscapes, but not in Northern and Central Europe, where it depended on imported technology and material. (2) Both demic diffusion by migration and cultural diffusion by trade may explain the western European transition equally well. (3) Migrating farmers apparently contribute less than local adopters to the establishment of agropastoralism. Our study thus underlines the importance of adoption of introduced technologies and economies by resident foragers.

Manual of standard and recommended practices.

Section 16 not yet published.

Bulletin - State of Illinois, Department of Registration and Education, Division of the State Geological Survey.

Mode of access: Internet.

Organohalogen contaminants in wildlife from the Yangtze River Delta : Development of methods and assessments of legacy and emerging persistent organic pollutants

Rapid economic development has occurred during the past few decades in China with the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) area as one of the most progressive areas. The urbanization, industrialization, agricultural and aquaculture activities result in extensive production and application of chemicals. Organohalogen contaminants (OHCs) have been widely used as i.e. pesticides, flame retardants and plasticizers. They are persistent, bioaccumulative and pose a potential threat to ecosystem and human health. However, limited research has been conducted in the YRD with respect to chemicals environmental exposure. The main objective of this thesis is to investigate the contamination level, distribution pattern and sources of OHCs in the YRD. Wildlife from different habitats are used to indicate the environmental pollution situation, and evaluate selected matrices for use in long term biomonitoring to determine the environmental stress the contamination may cause. In addition, a method is developed for dicofol analysis. Moreover, a specific effort is made to introduce statistic power analysis to assist in optimal sampling design. The thesis results show extensive contamination of OHCs in wildlife in the YRD. The occurrences of high concentrations of chlorinated paraffins (CPs) are reported in wildlife, in particular in terrestrial species, (i.e. short-tailed mamushi snake and peregrine falcon). Impurities and byproducts of pentachlorophenol products, i.e. polychlorinated diphenyl ethers (PCDEs) and hydroxylated polychlorinated diphenyl ethers (OH-PCDEs) are identified and reported for the first time in eggs from black-crowned night heron and whiskered tern. High concentrations of octachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (OCDD) are determined in these samples. The toxic equivalents (TEQs) of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin (PCDDs) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) are at mean levels of 300 and 520 pg TEQ g-1lw (WHO2005 TEQ) in eggs from the two bird species, respectively. This is two orders of magnitude higher than European Union (EU) regulation limit in chicken eggs. Also, a novel pattern of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) with octa- to decaCBs, contributing to as much as 20% of total PCBs therein, are reported in birds. The legacy POPs shows a common characteristic with relatively high level of organochlorine pesticides (i.e. DDT, hexacyclohexanes (HCHs) and Mirex), indicating historic applications. In contrast, rather low concentrations are shown of industrial chemicals such as PCBs and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). A refined and improved analytical method is developed to separate dicofol from its major decomposition compound, 4,4’-dichlorobenzophenone. Hence dicofol is possible to assess as such. Statistic power analysis demonstrates that sampling of sedentary species should be consistently spread over a larger area to monitor temporal trends of contaminants in a robust manner. The results presented in this thesis show high CPs and OCDD concentrations in wildlife. The levels and patterns of OHCs in YRD differ from other well studied areas of the world. This is likely due to the extensive production and use of chemicals in the YRD. The results strongly signal the need of research biomonitoring programs that meet the current situation of the YRD. Such programs will contribute to the management of chemicals and environment in YRD, with the potential to grow into the human health sector, and to expand to China as a whole.

Linking the witness simulation software to an expert system to represent a decision-making process

Expert systems, and artificial intelligence more generally, can provide a useful means for representing decision-making processes. By linking expert systems software to simulation software an effective means of including these decision-making processes in a simulation model can be achieved. This paper demonstrates how a commercial-off-the-shelf simulation package (Witness) can be linked to an expert systems package (XpertRule) through a Visual Basic interface. The methodology adopted could be used for models, and possibly software, other than those presented here.

Serial evolutionary networks of within-patient HIV-1 sequences reveal patterns of evolution of X4 strains

Background The HIV virus is known for its ability to exploit numerous genetic and evolutionary mechanisms to ensure its proliferation, among them, high replication, mutation and recombination rates. Sliding MinPD, a recently introduced computational method [1], was used to investigate the patterns of evolution of serially-sampled HIV-1 sequence data from eight patients with a special focus on the emergence of X4 strains. Unlike other phylogenetic methods, Sliding MinPD combines distance-based inference with a nonparametric bootstrap procedure and automated recombination detection to reconstruct the evolutionary history of longitudinal sequence data. We present serial evolutionary networks as a longitudinal representation of the mutational pathways of a viral population in a within-host environment. The longitudinal representation of the evolutionary networks was complemented with charts of clinical markers to facilitate correlation analysis between pertinent clinical information and the evolutionary relationships. Results Analysis based on the predicted networks suggests the following:: significantly stronger recombination signals (p = 0.003) for the inferred ancestors of the X4 strains, recombination events between different lineages and recombination events between putative reservoir virus and those from a later population, an early star-like topology observed for four of the patients who died of AIDS. A significantly higher number of recombinants were predicted at sampling points that corresponded to peaks in the viral load levels (p = 0.0042). Conclusion Our results indicate that serial evolutionary networks of HIV sequences enable systematic statistical analysis of the implicit relations embedded in the topology of the structure and can greatly facilitate identification of patterns of evolution that can lead to specific hypotheses and new insights. The conclusions of applying our method to empirical HIV data support the conventional wisdom of the new generation HIV treatments, that in order to keep the virus in check, viral loads need to be suppressed to almost undetectable levels.

Identification of Conserved Splicing Motifs in Mutually Exclusive Exons of 15 Insect Species

Background: During alternative splicing, the inclusion of an exon in the final mRNA molecule is determined by nuclear proteins that bind cis-regulatory sequences in a target pre-mRNA molecule. A recent study suggested that the regulatory codes of individual RNA-binding proteins may be nearly immutable between very diverse species such as mammals and insects. The model system Drosophila melanogaster therefore presents an excellent opportunity for the study of alternative splicing due to the availability of quality EST annotations in FlyBase. Methods: In this paper, we describe an in silico analysis pipeline to extract putative exonic splicing regulatory sequences from a multiple alignment of 15 species of insects. Our method, ESTs-to-ESRs (E2E), uses graph analysis of EST splicing graphs to identify mutually exclusive (ME) exons and combines phylogenetic measures, a sliding window approach along the multiple alignment and the Welch’s t statistic to extract conserved ESR motifs. Results: The most frequent 100% conserved word of length 5 bp in different insect exons was “ATGGA”. We identified 799 statistically significant “spike” hexamers, 218 motifs with either a left or right FDR corrected spike magnitude p-value < 0.05 and 83 with both left and right uncorrected p < 0.01. 11 genes were identified with highly significant motifs in one ME exon but not in the other, suggesting regulation of ME exon splicing through these highly conserved hexamers. The majority of these genes have been shown to have regulated spatiotemporal expression. 10 elements were found to match three mammalian splicing regulator databases. A putative ESR motif, GATGCAG, was identified in the ME-13b but not in the ME-13a of Drosophila N-Cadherin, a gene that has been shown to have a distinct spatiotemporal expression pattern of spliced isoforms in a recent study. Conclusions: Analysis of phylogenetic relationships and variability of sequence conservation as implemented in the E2E spikes method may lead to improved identification of ESRs. We found that approximately half of the putative ESRs in common between insects and mammals have a high statistical support (p < 0.01). Several Drosophila genes with spatiotemporal expression patterns were identified to contain putative ESRs located in one exon of the ME exon pairs but not in the other.

Project Pró-Natal: population-based study of perinatal and infant mortality in Natal, Northeast Brazil

RAMOS, Ana Maria de Oliveira et al. Project Pró-Natal: population-based study of perinatal and infant mortality in Natal, Northeast Brazil. Pediatric and Developmental Pathology, v.3, n.1, p.29-35, 2000

The pathology of command and control: a formal synthesis

One of the most important theories in the study of environmental governance and policy is the pathology of command and control, which describes the negative consequences of top-down, technocratic governance of social and ecological systems. However, to date, this theory has been expressed somewhat inconsistently and informally in the literature, even by the seminal works that have established its importance and popularized it. This presents a problem for the sustainability science community if it cannot be sure of the precise details of one of its most important theories. Without such precision, applications and tests of various elements of the theory cannot be conducted reliably to advance the knowledge of environmental governance. I address this problem by synthesizing several seminal works to formalize this theory. The formalization involves the identification of the individual elements of the theory and a diagrammatic description of their relationships with each other that unfold in a series of semi-independent causal paths. Ideally, with such a formalization, scholars can use this theory more reliably and more meaningfully in their future work. I conclude by discussing the implications this theory has for the governance of natural resources.

Project Pró-Natal: population-based study of perinatal and infant mortality in Natal, Northeast Brazil

RAMOS, Ana Maria de Oliveira et al. Project Pró-Natal: population-based study of perinatal and infant mortality in Natal, Northeast Brazil. Pediatric and Developmental Pathology, v.3, n.1, p.29-35, 2000

The Southern Ischia canyon system: examples of deep sea depositional systems on the continental slope off Campania (Italy)

The Southern Ischia canyon system has been investigated in detail through Multibeam bathymetry and Sparker seismic data and has been put in the geological framework of the deep sea depositional systems off the Campania region. The geological and geomorphological characteristics of the canyon system have been also compared with the characters of the Mediterranean submarine canyons and with the deep sea depositional systems of the Tyrrhenian sea. The Southern Ischia canyon system engraves a narrow continental shelf from Punta Imperatore to Punta San Pancrazio, being limited southwestwards from the relict volcanic edifice of the Ischia Bank. It consists of twenty-two drainage axes, whose planimetric trending has been reconstructed in a sketch morphological map realized through the geological interpretation of Multibeam bathymetry. While the eastern boundary of the canyon system is controlled by extensional tectonics, being limited by a NE-SW trending (anti-Apenninic) normal fault, its western boundary is controlled by volcanism, due to the growth of the Ischia volcanic bank. Submarine gravitational instabilities also acted in relationships to the canyon system, allowing for the individuation of large-scale creeping at the sea bottom and hummocky deposits already interpreted as debris avalanche deposits. Quaternary marine seismic sequences have been reconstructed through a densely spaced seismic grid recorded through a Sparker multitip seismic source, allowing for a detailed observation of steep erosional slopes occurring on the southern flank of the island and related deep sea depositional systems. Important implications of this study will regard the coastal monitoring and beach nourishment of the southern flank of the island, being involved by a strong erosion of marine and coastal systems.

Increased hospital-based physical rehabilitation and information provision after intensive care unit discharge: the RECOVER randomized clinical trial.

Importance: critical illness results in disability and reduced health-related quality of life (HRQOL), but the optimum timing and components of rehabilitation are uncertain. Objective: to evaluate the effect of increasing physical and nutritional rehabilitation plus information delivered during the post–intensive care unit (ICU) acute hospital stay by dedicated rehabilitation assistants on subsequent mobility, HRQOL, and prevalent disabilities. Design, Setting, and Participants: a parallel group, randomized clinical trial with blinded outcome assessment at 2 hospitals in Edinburgh, Scotland, of 240 patients discharged from the ICU between December 1, 2010, and January 31, 2013, who required at least 48 hours of mechanical ventilation. Analysis for the primary outcome and other 3-month outcomes was performed between June and August 2013; for the 6- and 12-month outcomes and the health economic evaluation, between March and April 2014. Interventions: during the post-ICU hospital stay, both groups received physiotherapy and dietetic, occupational, and speech/language therapy, but patients in the intervention group received rehabilitation that typically increased the frequency of mobility and exercise therapies 2- to 3-fold, increased dietetic assessment and treatment, used individualized goal setting, and provided greater illness-specific information. Intervention group therapy was coordinated and delivered by a dedicated rehabilitation practitioner. Main Outcomes and Measures: the Rivermead Mobility Index (RMI) (range 0-15) at 3 months; higher scores indicate greater mobility. Secondary outcomes included HRQOL, psychological outcomes, self-reported symptoms, patient experience, and cost-effectiveness during a 12-month follow-up (completed in February 2014). Results: median RMI at randomization was 3 (interquartile range [IQR], 1-6) and at 3 months was 13 (IQR, 10-14) for the intervention and usual care groups (mean difference, −0.2 [95% CI, −1.3 to 0.9; P = .71]). The HRQOL scores were unchanged by the intervention (mean difference in the Physical Component Summary score, −0.1 [95% CI, −3.3 to 3.1; P = .96]; and in the Mental Component Summary score, 0.2 [95% CI, −3.4 to 3.8; P = .91]). No differences were found for self-reported symptoms of fatigue, pain, appetite, joint stiffness, or breathlessness. Levels of anxiety, depression, and posttraumatic stress were similar, as were hand grip strength and the timed Up & Go test. No differences were found at the 6- or 12-month follow-up for any outcome measures. However, patients in the intervention group reported greater satisfaction with physiotherapy, nutritional support, coordination of care, and information provision. Conclusions and Relevance: post-ICU hospital-based rehabilitation, including increased physical and nutritional therapy plus information provision, did not improve physical recovery or HRQOL, but improved patient satisfaction with many aspects of recovery.