Boundary-layer heights over the monsoon trough region during active and break phases

The thermodynamic structure and the heights of the boundary layer over the monsoon trough region of the Indian southwest monsoon are presented for the active and break phases of the monsoon. Results indicate significant and consistent variation in boundary-layer heights between the active and break phases.

Categorical Meteorological Products: Evaluation and Analysis

In meteorology, observations and forecasts of a wide range of phenomena for example, snow, clouds, hail, fog, and tornados can be categorical, that is, they can only have discrete values (e.g., "snow" and "no snow"). Concentrating on satellite-based snow and cloud analyses, this thesis explores methods that have been developed for evaluation of categorical products and analyses. Different algorithms for satellite products generate different results; sometimes the differences are subtle, sometimes all too visible. In addition to differences between algorithms, the satellite products are influenced by physical processes and conditions, such as diurnal and seasonal variation in solar radiation, topography, and land use. The analysis of satellite-based snow cover analyses from NOAA, NASA, and EUMETSAT, and snow analyses for numerical weather prediction models from FMI and ECMWF was complicated by the fact that we did not have the true knowledge of snow extent, and we were forced simply to measure the agreement between different products. The Sammon mapping, a multidimensional scaling method, was then used to visualize the differences between different products. The trustworthiness of the results for cloud analyses [EUMETSAT Meteorological Products Extraction Facility cloud mask (MPEF), together with the Nowcasting Satellite Application Facility (SAFNWC) cloud masks provided by Météo-France (SAFNWC/MSG) and the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SAFNWC/PPS)] compared with ceilometers of the Helsinki Testbed was estimated by constructing confidence intervals (CIs). Bootstrapping, a statistical resampling method, was used to construct CIs, especially in the presence of spatial and temporal correlation. The reference data for validation are constantly in short supply. In general, the needs of a particular project drive the requirements for evaluation, for example, for the accuracy and the timeliness of the particular data and methods. In this vein, we discuss tentatively how data provided by general public, e.g., photos shared on the Internet photo-sharing service Flickr, can be used as a new source for validation. Results show that they are of reasonable quality and their use for case studies can be warmly recommended. Last, the use of cluster analysis on meteorological in-situ measurements was explored. The Autoclass algorithm was used to construct compact representations of synoptic conditions of fog at Finnish airports.

The 26 July 2005 heavy rainfall event over Mumbai: numerical modeling aspects

The performance of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) in simulating an extreme rainfall event is evaluated, and subsequently the physical mechanisms leading to its initiation and sustenance are explored. As a case study, the heavy precipitation event that led to 65 cm of rainfall accumulation in a span of around 6 h (1430 LT-2030 LT) over Santacruz (Mumbai, India), on 26 July, 2005, is selected. Three sets of numerical experiments have been conducted. The first set of experiments (EXP1) consisted of a four-member ensemble, and was carried out in an idealized mode with a model grid spacing of 1 km. In spite of the idealized framework, signatures of heavy rainfall were seen in two of the ensemble members. The second set (EXP2) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nested integration and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6 and 1 km. The model was able to simulate a realistic spatial structure with the 54, 18, and 6 km grids; however, with the 1 km grid, the simulations were dominated by the prescribed boundary conditions. The third and final set of experiments (EXP3) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nesting and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6, and 2 km. The Scaled Lagged Average Forecasting (SLAF) methodology was employed to construct the ensemble members. The model simulations in this case were closer to observations, as compared to EXP2. Specifically, among all experiments, the timing of maximum rainfall, the abrupt increase in rainfall intensities, which was a major feature of this event, and the rainfall intensities simulated in EXP3 (at 6 km resolution) were closest to observations. Analysis of the physical mechanisms causing the initiation and sustenance of the event reveals some interesting aspects. Deep convection was found to be initiated by mid-tropospheric convergence that extended to lower levels during the later stage. In addition, there was a high negative vertical gradient of equivalent potential temperature suggesting strong atmospheric instability prior to and during the occurrence of the event. Finally, the presence of a conducive vertical wind shear in the lower and mid-troposphere is thought to be one of the major factors influencing the longevity of the event.

Meridional propagation of large-scale monsoon convective zones

Observational studies indicate that the convective activity of the monsoon systems undergo intraseasonal variations with multi-week time scales. The zone of maximum monsoon convection exhibits substantial transient behavior with successive propagating from the North Indian Ocean to the heated continent. Over South Asia the zone achieves its maximum intensity. These propagations may extend over 3000 km in latitude and perhaps twice the distance in longitude and remain as coherent entities for periods greater than 2-3 weeks. Attempts to explain this phenomena using simple ocean-atmosphere models of the monsoon system had concluded that the interactive ground hydrology so modifies the total heating of the atmosphere that a steady state solution is not possible, thus promoting lateral propagation. That is, the ground hydrology forces the total heating of the atmosphere and the vertical velocity to be slightly out of phase, causing a migration of the convection towards the region of maximum heating. Whereas the lateral scale of the variations produced by the Webster (1983) model were essentially correct, they occurred at twice the frequency of the observed events and were formed near the coastal margin, rather than over the ocean. Webster's (1983) model used to pose the theories was deficient in a number of aspects. Particularly, both the ground moisture content and the thermal inertia of the model were severely underestimated. At the same time, the sea surface temperatures produced by the model between the equator and the model's land-sea boundary were far too cool. Both the atmosphere and the ocean model were modified to include a better hydrological cycle and ocean structure. The convective events produced by the modified model possessed the observed frequency and were generated well south of the coastline. The improved simulation of monsoon variability allowed the hydrological cycle feedback to be generalized. It was found that monsoon variability was constrained to lie within the bounds of a positive gradient of a convective intensity potential (I). The function depends primarily on the surface temperature, the availability of moisture and the stability of the lower atmosphere which varies very slowly on the time scale of months. The oscillations of the monsoon perturb the mean convective intensity potential causing local enhancements of the gradient. These perturbations are caused by the hydrological feedbacks, discussed above, or by the modification of the air-sea fluxes caused by variations of the low level wind during convective events. The final result is the slow northward propagation of convection within an even slower convective regime. The ECMWF analyses show very similar behavior of the convective intensity potential. Although it is considered premature to use the model to conduct simulations of the African monsoon system, the ECMWF analysis indicates similar behavior in the convective intensity potential suggesting, at least, that the same processes control the low frequency structure of the African monsoon. The implications of the hypotheses on numerical weather prediction of monsoon phenomenon are discussed.

Polarimetric Signatures in the Stratiform Region of a Mesoscale Convective System

Four polarimetric measurands were collected in the stratiform region of a mesoscale convective system. The four are the reflectivity factor, the differential reflectivity, the correlation coefficient between orthogonal copolar echoes, and the differential propagation constant. Most striking is a signature of large aggregates (about 10 mm in size) seen in the differential phase through the melting layer. Another significant feature is an abrupt notch in the correlation coefficient that occurs towards the bottom of the bright band. Aircraft observations and a one-dimensional cloud model are used to explain some polarimetric measurements and to infer the presence of aggregates, graupel, and supercooled cloud water in the stratiform region. These unique observations and model data provide inferences concerning the presence of graupel and the growth of large aggregates in the melting layer.

The energy balance in the Ramdas layer

On calm clear nights, air at a height of a few decimetres above bare soil can be cooler than the surface by several degrees in what we shall call the Ramdas layer (Ramdas and Atmanathan, 1932). The authors have recently offered a logical explanation for such a lifted temperature minimum, together with a detailed numerical model. In this paper, we provide physical insight into the phenomenon by a detailed discussion of the energy budget in four typical cases, including one with a lifted minimum. It is shown that the net cooling rate near ground is the small difference between two dominant terms, representing respectively radiative upflux from the ground and from the air layers just above ground. The delicate energy balance that leads to the lifted minimum is upset by turbulent transport, by surface emissivity approaching unity, or by high ground cooling rates. The rapid variation of the flux emissivity of humid air is shown to dominate radiative transport near the ground.

Rossby waves in May and the Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Large amplitude stationary Rossby wave trains with wavelength in the range 50 degrees to 60 degrees longitude have been identified in the upper troposphere during May, through the analysis of 200 hPa wind anomalies. The spatial phase of these waves has been shown to differ by about 20 degrees of longitude between the dry and wet Indian monsoon years. It has been shown empirically that the Rossby waves are induced by the heat sources in the ITCZ. These heat sources appear in the Bay of Bengal and adjoining regions in May just prior to the onset of the Indian summer monsoon. The inter-annual spatial phase shift of the Rossby waves has been shown to be related to the shift in the deep convection in the zonal direction.

On the role of cloud adjustment time scale in simulating precipitation with Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert convection scheme

The precipitation by Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert cumulus parameterization in a General Circulation Model (GCM) is sensitive to the choice of relaxation parameter or specified cloud adjustment time scale. In the present study, we examine sensitivity of simulated precipitation to the choice of cloud adjustment time scale (tau(adj)) over different parts of the tropics using National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Seasonal Forecast Model (SFM) during June-September. The results show that a single specified value of tau(adj) performs best only over a particular region and different values are preferred over different parts of the world. To find a relation between tau(adj) and cloud depth (convective activity) we choose six regions over the tropics. Based on the observed relation between outgoing long-wave radiation and tau(adj), we propose a linear cloud-type dependent relaxation parameter to be used in the model. The simulations over most parts of the tropics show improved results due to this newly formulated cloud-type dependent relaxation parameter.

Role of the cloud adjustment time scale in simulation of the interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon

The simulation of precipitation in a general circulation model relying on relaxed mass flux cumulus parameterization scheme is sensitive to cloud adjustment time scale (CATS). In this study, the frequency of the dominant intra-seasonal mode and interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model is shown to be sensitive to the CATS. It has been shown that a longer CATS of about 5 h simulates the spatial distribution of the ISMR better. El Nio Southern Oscillation-ISMR relationship is also sensitive to CATS. The equatorial Indian Ocean rainfall and ISMR coupling is sensitive to CATS. Our study suggests that a careful choice of CATS is necessary for adequate simulation of spatial pattern as well as interannual variation of Indian summer monsoon precipitation.

Secondary instability as a possible mechanism for clear-air turbulence: a case study

Many theories and mechanisms have been proposed to explain the phenomenon of clear-air turbulence (CAT), and some of them have been successful in predicting light, moderate and, in some cases, severe turbulence. It is only recently that skill in the forecasting of the severe form of CAT, which could lead to injuries to passengers and damage to aircraft, has improved. Recent observations and simulations suggest that some severe to extreme turbulence could be caused by horizontal vortex tubes resulting from secondary instabilities of regions of high shear in the atmosphere. We have conducted direct numerical simulations to understand the scale relationship between primary structures (larger-scale structures related to one of the causes mentioned above) and secondary structures (smaller-sized, shear structures of the size of aircraft). From shear layer simulations, we find that the ratio of sizes of primary and secondary vortices is of the right order to generate aircraft-scale vortex tubes from typical atmospheric shear layers. We have also conducted simulations with a mesoscale atmospheric model, to understand possible causes of turbulence experienced by a flight off the west coast of India. Our simulations show the occurrence of primary flow structures related to synoptic conditions around the time of the incident. The evidence presented for this mechanism also has implications for possible methods of detection and avoidance of severe CAT.

Regionalization of extreme rainfall in India

Regionalization of extreme rainfall is useful for various applications in hydro-meteorology. There is dearth of regionalization studies on extreme rainfall in India. In this perspective, a set of 25 regions that are homogeneous in 1-, 2-, 3-, 4- and 5-day extreme rainfall is delineated based on seasonality measure of extreme rainfall and location indicators (latitude, longitude and altitude) by using global fuzzy c-means (GFCM) cluster analysis. The regions are validated for homogeneity in L-moment framework. One of the applications of the regions is in arriving at quantile estimates of extreme rainfall at sparsely gauged/ungauged locations using options such as regional frequency analysis (RFA). The RFA involves use of rainfall-related information from gauged sites in a region as the basis to estimate quantiles of extreme rainfall for target locations that resemble the region in terms of rainfall characteristics. A procedure for RFA based on GFCM-delineated regions is presented and its effectiveness is evaluated by leave-one-out cross validation. Error in quantile estimates for ungauged sites is compared with that resulting from the use of region-of-influence (ROI) approach that forms site-specific regions exclusively for quantile estimation. Results indicate that error in quantile estimates based on GFCM regions and ROI are fairly close, and neither of them is consistent in yielding the least error over all the sites. The cluster analysis approach was effective in reducing the number of regions to be delineated for RFA.

Performance of WRF-Chem over Indian region: Comparison with measurements

The aerosol mass concentrations over several Indian regions have been simulated using the online chemistry transport model, WRF-Chem, for two distinct seasons of 2011, representing the pre-monsoon (May) and post-monsoon (October) periods during the Indo-US joint experiment `Ganges Valley Aerosol Experiment (GVAX)'. The simulated values were compared with concurrent measurements. It is found that the model systematically underestimates near-surface BC mass concentrations as well as columnar Aerosol Optical Depths (AODs) from the measurements. Examining this in the light of the model-simulated meteorological parameters, we notice the model overestimates both planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) and surface wind speeds, leading to deeper mixing and dispersion and hence lower surface concentrations of aerosols. Shortcoming in simulating rainfall pattern also has an impact through the scavenging effect. It also appears that the columnar AODs are influenced by the unrealistic emission scenarios in the model. Comparison with vertical profiles of BC obtained from aircraft-based measurements also shows a systematic underestimation by the model at all levels. It is seen that concentration of other aerosols, viz., dust and sea-salt are closely linked with meteorological conditions prevailing over the region. Dust is higher during pre-monsoon periods due to the prevalence of north-westerly winds that advect dust from deserts of west Asia into the Indo-Gangetic plain. Winds and rainfall influence sea-salt concentrations. Thus, the unrealistic simulation of wind and rainfall leads to model simulated dust and sea-salt also to deviate from the real values; which together with BC also causes underperformance of the model with regard to columnar AOD. It appears that for better simulations of aerosols over Indian region, the model needs an improvement in the simulation of the meteorology.

Inter-comparison and performance evaluation of chemistry transport models over Indian region

Aerosol loading over the South Asian region has the potential to affect the monsoon rainfall, Himalayan glaciers and regional air-quality, with implications for the billions in this region. While field campaigns and network observations provide primary data, they tend to be location/season specific. Numerical models are useful to regionalize such location-specific data. Studies have shown that numerical models underestimate the aerosol scenario over the Indian region, mainly due to shortcomings related to meteorology and the emission inventories used. In this context, we have evaluated the performance of two such chemistry-transport models: WRF-Chem and SPRINTARS over an India-centric domain. The models differ in many aspects including physical domain, horizontal resolution, meteorological forcing and so on etc. Despite these differences, both the models simulated similar spatial patterns of Black Carbon (BC) mass concentration, (with a spatial correlation of 0.9 with each other), and a reasonable estimates of its concentration, though both of them under-estimated vis-a-vis the observations. While the emissions are lower (higher) in SPRINTARS (WRF-Chem), overestimation of wind parameters in WRF-Chem caused the concentration to be similar in both models. Additionally, we quantified the under-estimations of anthropogenic BC emissions in the inventories used these two models and three other widely used emission inventories. Our analysis indicates that all these emission inventories underestimate the emissions of BC over India by a factor that ranges from 1.5 to 2.9. We have also studied the model simulations of aerosol optical depth over the Indian region. The models differ significantly in simulations of AOD, with WRF-Chem having a better agreement with satellite observations of AOD as far as the spatial pattern is concerned. It is important to note that in addition to BC, dust can also contribute significantly to AOD. The models differ in simulations of the spatial pattern of mineral dust over the Indian region. We find that both meteorological forcing and emission formulation contribute to these differences. Since AOD is column integrated parameter, description of vertical profiles in both models, especially since elevated aerosol layers are often observed over Indian region, could be also a contributing factor. Additionally, differences in the prescription of the optical properties of BC between the models appear to affect the AOD simulations. We also compared simulation of sea-salt concentration in the two models and found that WRF-Chem underestimated its concentration vis-a-vis SPRINTARS. The differences in near-surface oceanic wind speeds appear to be the main source of this difference. In-spite of these differences, we note that there are similarities in their simulation of spatial patterns of various aerosol species (with each other and with observations) and hence models could be valuable tools for aerosol-related studies over the Indian region. Better estimation of emission inventories could improve aerosol-related simulations. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The impact of latent heating on the location and strength of the tropical easterly jet

The tropical easterly jet (TEJ) is a prominent atmospheric circulation feature observed during the Asian summer monsoon. It is generally assumed that sensible heating over the Tibetan Plateau directly influences the location of the TEJ. However, other studies have suggested the importance of latent heating in determining the jet location. In this paper, the relative importance of latent heating on the maintenance of the TEJ is explored through simulations with a general circulation model. The simulation of the TEJ by the Community Atmosphere Model, version 3.1 is discussed in detail. These simulations showed that the location of the TEJ is well correlated with the location of the precipitation. Significant zonal shifts in the location of the precipitation resulted in similar shifts in the zonal location of the TEJ. These zonal shifts had minimal effect on the large-scale structure of the jet. Further, provided that precipitation patterns were relatively unchanged, orography did not directly impact the location of the TEJ. These changes were robust even with changes in the cumulus parameterization. This suggests the potential important role of latent heating in determining the location and structure of the TEJ. These results were used to explain the significant differences in the zonal location of the TEJ in the years 1988 and 2002. To understand the contribution of the latitudinal location of latent heating on the strength of the TEJ, aqua-planet simulations were carried out. It has been shown that for similar amounts of net latent heating, the jet is stronger when heating is in the higher tropical latitudes. This may partly explain the reason for the jet to be very strong during the JJA monsoon season.