Model for interevent times with long tails and multifractality in human communications: An application to financial trading

Social, technological, and economic time series are divided by events which are usually assumed to be random, albeit with some hierarchical structure. It is well known that the interevent statistics observed in these contexts differs from the Poissonian profile by being long-tailed distributed with resting and active periods interwoven. Understanding mechanisms generating consistent statistics has therefore become a central issue. The approach we present is taken from the continuous-time random-walk formalism and represents an analytical alternative to models of nontrivial priority that have been recently proposed. Our analysis also goes one step further by looking at the multifractal structure of the interevent times of human decisions. We here analyze the intertransaction time intervals of several financial markets. We observe that empirical data describe a subtle multifractal behavior. Our model explains this structure by taking the pausing-time density in the form of a superstatistics where the integral kernel quantifies the heterogeneous nature of the executed tasks. A stretched exponential kernel provides a multifractal profile valid for a certain limited range. A suggested heuristic analytical profile is capable of covering a broader region.

Indomethacin solubility estimation in 1,4-dioxane + water mixtures by the extended hildebrand solubility approach

Extended Hildebrand Solubility Approach (EHSA) was successfully applied to evaluate the solubility of Indomethacin in 1,4-dioxane + water mixtures at 298.15 K. An acceptable correlation-performance of EHSA was found by using a regular polynomial model in order four of the W interaction parameter vs. solubility parameter of the mixtures (overall deviation was 8.9%). Although the mean deviation obtained was similar to that obtained directly by means of an empiric regression of the experimental solubility vs. mixtures solubility parameters, the advantages of EHSA are evident because it requires physicochemical properties easily available for drugs.

Licensing Model Development for Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) - Focusing on the Finnish Regulatory Framework

Recently, Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) have attracted increased public discussion. While large nuclear power plant new build projects are facing challenges, the focus of attention is turning to small modular reactors. One particular project challenge arises in the area of nuclear licensing, which plays a significant role in new build projects affecting their quality as well as costs and schedules. This dissertation - positioned in the field of nuclear engineering but also with a significant section in the field of systems engineering - examines the nuclear licensing processes and their suitability for the characteristics of SMRs. The study investigates the licensing processes in selected countries, as well as other safety critical industry fields. Viewing the licensing processes and their separate licensing steps in terms of SMRs, the study adopts two different analysis theories for review and comparison. The primary data consists of a literature review, semi-structured interviews, and questionnaire responses concerning licensing processes and practices. The result of the study is a recommendation for a new, optimized licensing process for SMRs. The most important SMR-specific feature, in terms of licensing, is the modularity of the design. Here the modularity indicates multi-module SMR designs, which creates new challenges in the licensing process. As this study focuses on Finland, the main features of the new licensing process are adapted to the current Finnish licensing process, aiming to achieve the main benefits with minimal modifications to the current process. The application of the new licensing process is developed using Systems Engineering, Requirements Management, and Project Management practices and tools. Nuclear licensing includes a large amount of data and documentation which needs to be managed in a suitable manner throughout the new build project and then during the whole life cycle of the nuclear power plant. To enable a smooth licensing process and therefore ensure the success of the new build nuclear power plant project, management processes and practices play a significant role. This study contributes to the theoretical understanding of how licensing processes are structured and how they are put into action in practice. The findings clarify the suitability of different licensing processes and their selected licensing steps for SMR licensing. The results combine the most suitable licensing steps into a new licensing process for SMRs. The results are also extended to the concept of licensing management practices and tools.

Application of a non isotropic turbulence model to stable atmospheric flows and dispersion over 3D topography

A non isotropic turbulence model is extended and applied to three dimensional stably stratified flows and dispersion calculations. The model is derived from the algebraic stress model (including wall proximity effects), but it retains the simplicity of the "eddy viscosity" concept of first order models. The "modified k-epsilon" is implemented in a three dimensional numerical code. Once the flow is resolved, the predicted velocity and turbulence fields are interpolated into a second grid and used to solve the concentration equation. To evaluate the model, various steady state numerical solutions are compared with small scale dispersion experiments which were conducted at the wind tunnel of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, in Japan. Stably stratified flows and plume dispersion over three distinct idealized complex topographies (flat and hilly terrain) are studied. Vertical profiles of velocity and pollutant concentration are shown and discussed. Also, comparisons are made against the results obtained with the standard k-epsilon model.

Estimation of aircraft aerodynamic derivatives using Extended Kalman Filter

Design of flight control laws, verification of performance predictions, and the implementation of flight simulations are tasks that require a mathematical model of the aircraft dynamics. The dynamical models are characterized by coefficients (aerodynamic derivatives) whose values must be determined from flight tests. This work outlines the use of the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) in obtaining the aerodynamic derivatives of an aircraft. The EKF shows several advantages over the more traditional least-square method (LS). Among these the most important are: there are no restrictions on linearity or in the form which the parameters appears in the mathematical model describing the system, and it is not required that these parameters be time invariant. The EKF uses the statistical properties of the process and the observation noise, to produce estimates based on the mean square error of the estimates themselves. Differently, the LS minimizes a cost function based on the plant output behavior. Results for the estimation of some longitudinal aerodynamic derivatives from simulated data are presented.

Development of a three-dimensional nonlinear viscoelastic constitutive model of solid propellant

A three dimensional nonlinear viscoelastic constitutive model for the solid propellant is developed. In their earlier work, the authors have developed an isotropic constitutive model and verified it for one dimensional case. In the present work, the validity of the model is extended to three-dimensional cases. Large deformation, dewetting and cyclic loading effects are treated as the main sources of nonlinear behavior of the solid propellant. Viscoelastic dewetting criteria is used and the softening of the solid propellant due to dewetting is treated by the modulus decrease. The nonlinearities during cyclic loading are accounted for by the functions of the octahedral shear strain measure. The constitutive equation is implemented into a finite element code for the analysis of propellant grains. A commercial finite element package ‘ABAQUS’ is used for the analysis and the model is introduced into the code through a user subroutine. The model is evaluated with different loading conditions and the predicted values are in good agreement with the measured ones. The resulting model applied to analyze a solid propellant grain for the thermal cycling load.

Identification of research trends in the field of separation processes. Application of epidemiological model, citation analysis, text mining, and technical analysis of the financial markets

Choice of industrial development options and the relevant allocation of the research funds become more and more difficult because of the increasing R&D costs and pressure for shorter development period. Forecast of the research progress is based on the analysis of the publications activity in the field of interest as well as on the dynamics of its change. Moreover, allocation of funds is hindered by exponential growth in the number of publications and patents. Thematic clusters become more and more difficult to identify, and their evolution hard to follow. The existing approaches of research field structuring and identification of its development are very limited. They do not identify the thematic clusters with adequate precision while the identified trends are often ambiguous. Therefore, there is a clear need to develop methods and tools, which are able to identify developing fields of research. The main objective of this Thesis is to develop tools and methods helping in the identification of the promising research topics in the field of separation processes. Two structuring methods as well as three approaches for identification of the development trends have been proposed. The proposed methods have been applied to the analysis of the research on distillation and filtration. The results show that the developed methods are universal and could be used to study of the various fields of research. The identified thematic clusters and the forecasted trends of their development have been confirmed in almost all tested cases. It proves the universality of the proposed methods. The results allow for identification of the fast-growing scientific fields as well as the topics characterized by stagnant or diminishing research activity.

Extended hydrogen photoproduction by nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria

Cyanobacteria are the only prokaryotic organisms performing oxygenic photosynthesis. They comprise a diverse and versatile group of organisms in aquatic and terrestrial environments. Increasing genomic and proteomic data launches wide possibilities for their employment in various biotechnical applications. For example, cyanobacteria can use solar energy to produce H2. There are three different enzymes that are directly involved in cyanobacterial H2 metabolism: nitrogenase (nif) which produces hydrogen as a byproduct in nitrogen fixation; bidirectional hydrogenase (hox) which functions both in uptake and in production of H2; and uptake hydrogenase (hup) which recycles the H2 produced by nitrogenase back for the utilization of the cell. Cyanobacterial strains from University of Helsinki Cyanobacteria Collection (UHCC), isolated from the Baltic Sea and Finnish lakes were screened for efficient H2 producers. Screening about 400 strains revealed several promising candidates producing similar amounts of H2 (during light) as the ΔhupL mutant of Anabaena PCC 7120, which is specifically engineered to produce higher amounts of H2 by the interruption of uptake hydrogenase. The optimal environmental conditions for H2 photoproduction were significantly different between various cyanobacterial strains. All suitable strains revealed during screening were N2-fixing, filamentous and heterocystous. The top ten H2 producers were characterized for the presence and activity of the enzymes involved in H2 metabolism. They all possess the genes encoding the conventional nitrogenase (nifHDK1). However, the high H2 photoproduction rates of these strains were shown not to be directly associated with the maximum capacities of highly active nitrogenase or bidirectional hydrogenase. Most of the good producers possessed a highly active uptake hydrogenase, which has been considered as an obstacle for efficient H2 production. Among the newly revealed best H2 producing strains, Calothrix 336/3 was chosen for further, detailed characterization. Comparative analysis of the structure of the nif and hup operons encoding the nitrogenase and uptake hydrogenase enzymes respectively showed minor differences between Calothrix 336/3 and other N2-fixing model cyanobacteria. Calothrix 336/3 is a filamentous, N2-fixing cyanobacterium with ellipsoidal, terminal heterocysts. A common feature of Calothrix 336/3 is that the cells readily adhere to substrates. To make use of this feature, and to additionally improve H2 photoproduction capacity of the Calothrix 336/3 strain, an immobilization technique was applied. The effects of immobilization within thin alginate films were evaluated by examining the photoproduction of H2 of immobilized Calothrix 336/3 in comparison to model strains, the Anabaena PCC 7120 and its ΔhupL mutant. In order to achieve optimal H2 photoproduction, cells were kept under nitrogen starved conditions (Ar atmosphere) to ensure the selective function of nitrogenase in reducing protons to H2. For extended H2 photoproduction, cells require CO2 for maintenance of photosynthetic activity and recovery cycles to fix N2. Application of regular H2 production and recovery cycles, Ar or air atmospheres respectively, resulted in prolongation of H2 photoproduction in both Calothrix 336/3 and the ΔhupL mutant of Anabaena PCC 7120. However, recovery cycles, consisting of air supplemented with CO2, induced a strong C/N unbalance in the ΔhupL mutant leading to a decrease in photosynthetic activity, although total H2 yield was still higher compared to the wild-type strain. My findings provide information about the diversity of cyanobacterial H2 capacities and mechanisms and provide knowledge of the possibilities of further enhancing cyanobacterial H2 production.

Germany's socio-economic model and the Euro crisis

Germany's socio-economic model, the "social market economy", was established in West Germany after World War II and extended to the unified Germany in 1990. During a prolonged recession after the adoption of the Euro in 1998, major reforms (Agenda 2010) were introduced which many consider as the key of Germany's recent success. The reforms had mixed results: employment increased but has consisted to a large extent of precarious low-wage jobs. Growth depended on export surpluses based on an internal real devaluation (low unit labour costs) which make Germany vulnerable to global recessions as in 2009. Overall inequality increased substantially.

An Extended Pearson System Useful In Reliability Analysis

In the present environment, industry should provide the products of high quality. Quality of products is judged by the period of time they can successfully perform their intended functions without failure. The cause of the failures can be ascertained through life testing experiments and the times to failure due to different cause are likely to follow different distributions. Knowledge of this distribution is essential to eliminate causes of failures and thereby to improve the quality and the reliability of products. The main accomplishment expected to the study is to develop statistical tools that could facilitate solution to lifetime data arising in such and similar contexts

Bayesian Inference in Exponential and Pareto populations in the presence of Outliers

This thesis Entitled Bayesian inference in Exponential and pareto populations in the presence of outliers. The main theme of the present thesis is focussed on various estimation problems using the Bayesian appraoch, falling under the general category of accommodation procedures for analysing Pareto data containing outlier. In Chapter II. the problem of estimation of parameters in the classical Pareto distribution specified by the density function. In Chapter IV. we discuss the estimation of (1.19) when the sample contain a known number of outliers under three different data generating mechanisms, viz. the exchangeable model. Chapter V the prediction of a future observation based on a random sample that contains one contaminant. Chapter VI is devoted to the study of estimation problems concerning the exponential parameters under a k-outlier model.

Deformed-jellium model for the fission of multiply charged metal clusters

A deformed-jellium model is used to calculate the fission barrier height of positive doubly charged sodium clusters within an extended Thomas-Fermi approximation. The fissioning cluster is continuously deformed from the parent configuration until it splits into two fragments. Although the shape of the fission barrier obviously depends on the parametrization of the fission path, we have found that remarkably, the maximum of the barrier corresponds to a configuration in which the emerging fragments are already formed and rather well apart. The implication of this finding in the calculation of critical numbers for fission is illustrated in the case of multiply charged Na clusters.

Fragile-glass behavior of a short-range p-spin model

We propose a short-range generalization of the p-spin interaction spin-glass model. The model is well suited to test the idea that an entropy collapse is at the bottom line of the dynamical singularity encountered in structural glasses. The model is studied in three dimensions through Monte Carlo simulations, which put in evidence fragile glass behavior with stretched exponential relaxation and super-Arrhenius behavior of the relaxation time. Our data are in favor of a Vogel-Fulcher behavior of the relaxation time, related to an entropy collapse at the Kauzmann temperature. We, however, encounter difficulties analogous to those found in experimental systems when extrapolating thermodynamical data at low temperatures. We study the spin-glass susceptibility, investigating the behavior of the correlation length in the system. We find that the increase of the relaxation time is accompanied by a very slow growth of the correlation length. We discuss the scaling properties of off-equilibrium dynamics in the glassy regime, finding qualitative agreement with the mean-field theory.

A New Model For Reliability Centered Maintenance In Petroleum Refineries

Refiners today operate their equipment for prolonged periods without shutdown. This is primarily due to the increased pressures of the market resulting in extended shutdown-to-shutdown intervals. This places extreme demands on the reliability of the plant equipment. The traditional methods of reliability assurance, like Preventive Maintenance, Predictive Maintenance and Condition Based Maintenance become inadequate in the face of such demands. The alternate approaches to reliability improvement, being adopted the world over are implementation of RCFA programs and Reliability Centered Maintenance. However refiners and process plants find it difficult to adopt this standardized methodology of RCM mainly due to the complexity and the large amount of analysis that needs to be done, resulting in a long drawn out implementation, requiring the services of a number of skilled people. These results in either an implementation restricted to only few equipment or alternately, one that is non-standard. The paper presents the current models in use, the core requirements of a standard RCM model, the alternatives to classical RCM, limitations in the existing model, classical RCM and available alternatives to RCM and will then go on to present an ‗Accelerated‘ approach to RCM implementation, that, while ensuring close conformance to the standard, does not place a large burden on the implementers

Studies on scattering and thermodynamics of black holes in f(R) theory and Einstein's theory

One of the interesting consequences of Einstein's General Theory of Relativity is the black hole solutions. Until the observation made by Hawking in 1970s, it was believed that black holes are perfectly black. The General Theory of Relativity says that black holes are objects which absorb both matter and radiation crossing the event horizon. The event horizon is a surface through which even light is not able to escape. It acts as a one sided membrane that allows the passage of particles only in one direction i.e. towards the center of black holes. All the particles that are absorbed by black hole increases the mass of the black hole and thus the size of event horizon also increases. Hawking showed in 1970s that when applying quantum mechanical laws to black holes they are not perfectly black but they can emit radiation. Thus the black hole can have temperature known as Hawking temperature. In the thesis we have studied some aspects of black holes in f(R) theory of gravity and Einstein's General Theory of Relativity. The scattering of scalar field in this background space time studied in the first chapter shows that the extended black hole will scatter scalar waves and have a scattering cross section and applying tunneling mechanism we have obtained the Hawking temperature of this black hole. In the following chapter we have investigated the quasinormal properties of the extended black hole. We have studied the electromagnetic and scalar perturbations in this space-time and find that the black hole frequencies are complex and show exponential damping indicating the black hole is stable against the perturbations. In the present study we show that not only the black holes exist in modified gravities but also they have similar properties of black hole space times in General Theory of Relativity. 2 + 1 black holes or three dimensional black holes are simplified examples of more complicated four dimensional black holes. Thus these models of black holes are known as toy models of black holes in four dimensional black holes in General theory of Relativity. We have studied some properties of these types of black holes in Einstein model (General Theory of Relativity). A three dimensional black hole known as MSW is taken for our study. The thermodynamics and spectroscopy of MSW black hole are studied and obtained the area spectrum which is equispaced and different thermo dynamical properties are studied. The Dirac perturbation of this three dimensional black hole is studied and the resulting quasinormal spectrum of this three dimensional black hole is obtained. The different quasinormal frequencies are tabulated in tables and these values show an exponential damping of oscillations indicating the black hole is stable against the mass less Dirac perturbation. In General Theory of Relativity almost all solutions contain singularities. The cosmological solution and different black hole solutions of Einstein's field equation contain singularities. The regular black hole solutions are those which are solutions of Einstein's equation and have no singularity at the origin. These solutions possess event horizon but have no central singularity. Such a solution was first put forward by Bardeen. Hayward proposed a similar regular black hole solution. We have studied the thermodynamics and spectroscopy of Hay-ward regular black holes. We have also obtained the different thermodynamic properties and the area spectrum. The area spectrum is a function of the horizon radius. The entropy-heat capacity curve has a discontinuity at some value of entropy showing a phase transition.