A long-term swarm intelligence hedging tool applied to electricity markets

This paper proposes a swarm intelligence long-term hedging tool to support electricity producers in competitive electricity markets. This tool investigates the long-term hedging opportunities available to electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward) and financial (options) settlement. To find the optimal portfolio the producer risk preference is stated by a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance estimation and the expected return are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecast model, developed by the authors, whose explanation is outside the scope of this paper. The proposed tool makes use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and its performance has been evaluated by comparing it with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. To validate the risk management tool a case study, using real price historical data for mainland Spanish market, is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

A long-term risk management tool for electricity markets using swarm intelligence

This paper addresses the optimal involvement in derivatives electricity markets of a power producer to hedge against the pool price volatility. To achieve this aim, a swarm intelligence meta-heuristic optimization technique for long-term risk management tool is proposed. This tool investigates the long-term opportunities for risk hedging available for electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward contracts) and financial (options contracts) settlement. The producer risk preference is formulated as a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance of return and the expectation are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecasting model. This model also makes use of particle swarm optimization (PSO) to find the best parameters allow to achieve better forecasting results. On the other hand, the price estimation depends on load forecasting. This work also presents a regressive long-term load forecast model that make use of PSO to find the best parameters as well as in price estimation. The PSO technique performance has been evaluated by comparison with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. A case study is presented and the results are discussed taking into account the real price and load historical data from mainland Spanish electricity market demonstrating the effectiveness of the methodology handling this type of problems. Finally, conclusions are dully drawn.

Evidence of long-term changes in the distribution of key intertidal species

World Congress of Malacology, Ponta Delgada, July 22-28, 2013.

Long-term monitoring across elevational gradients to assess ecological hypothesis : a description of standardized sampling methods in oceanic islands and first results

We are launching a long-term study to characterize the biodiversity at different elevations in several Azorean Islands. Our aim is to use the Azores as a model archipelago to answer the fundamental question of what generates and maintains the global spatial heterogeneity of diversity in islands and to be able to understand the dynamics of change across time. An extensive, standardized sampling protocol was applied in most of the remnant forest fragments of five Azorean Islands. Fieldwork followed BRYOLAT methodology for the collection of bryophytes, ferns and other vascular plant species. A modified version of the BALA protocol was used for arthropods. A total of 70 plots (10 m x 10 m) are already established in five islands (Flores, Pico, São Jorge, Terceira and São Miguel), all respecting an elevation step of 200 m, resulting in 24 stations examined in Pico, 12 in Terceira, 10 in Flores, 12 in São Miguel and 12 in São Jorge. The first results regarding the vascular plants inventory include 138 vascular species including taxa from Lycopodiophyta (N=2), Pteridophyta (N=27), Pinophyta (N=2) and Magnoliophyta (N=107). In this contribution we also present the main research question for the next six years within the 2020 Horizon.

Influence of long-term wearing of unstable shoes on compensatory control of posture: An electromyography-based analysis

Purpose: This study investigated the influence of long-term wearing of unstable shoes (WUS) on compensatory postural adjustments (CPA) to an external perturbation. Methods: Participants were divided into two groups: one wore unstable shoes while the other wore conventional shoes for 8 weeks. The ground reaction force signal was used to calculate the anterior– posterior (AP) displacement of the centre of pressure (CoP) and the electromyographic signal of gastrocnemius medialis (GM), tibialis anterior (TA), rectus femoris (RF) and biceps femoris (BF) muscles was used to assess individual muscle activity, antagonist co-activation and reciprocal activation at the joint (TA/GM and RF/(BF + GM) pairs) and muscle group levels (ventral (TA + RF)/dorsal (GM + BF) pair) within time intervals typical for CPA. The electromyographic signal was also used to assess muscle latency. The variables described were evaluated before and after the 8-week period while wearing the unstable shoes and barefoot. Results: Long-term WUS led to: an increase of BF activity in both conditions (barefoot and wearing the unstable shoes); a decrease of GM activity; an increase of antagonist co-activation and a decrease of reciprocal activation level at the TA/GM and ventral/dorsal pairs in the unstable shoe condition. Additionally, WUS led to a decrease in CoP displacement. However, no differences were observed in muscle onset and offset. Conclusion: Results suggest that the prolonged use of unstable shoes leads to increased ankle and muscle groups’ antagonist co-activation levels and higher performance by the postural control system.

Long-term health benefits of appetite suppressants remain unproven

Because of the increasing prevalence of obesity, prevention and treatment of overweight has become a major public health concern. In addition to diet and exercise, drugs are needed for patients who failed to lose weight with behavioral treatment. The current article aimed to summarize recent concerns on the safety and efficacy of appetite suppressants. Several appetite suppressants have been banned for safety reasons. In 2010, sibutramine was withdrawn from the market because a long-term study showed it increased the risks of cardiovascular events. So far no study with a sufficiently large sample size has demonstrated that appetite suppressants can reduce morbidity and mortality associated with overweight. The withdrawal of sibutramine highlights that guidelines for the evaluation of weight control drugs must be more stringent, and studies on their long-term health benefits are needed prior to their marketing.

Serum trace elements in dysphagic gastrostomy candidates before endoscopic gastrostomy for long term enteral feeding

Background & aims - Patients who underwent endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG) present protein-energy malnutrition, but little is known about Trace Elements (TE), Zinc (Zn), Copper (Cu), Selenium (Se), Iron (Fe), Chromium (Cr). Our aim was the evaluation of serum TE in patients who underwent PEG and its relationship with serum proteins, BMI and nature of underlying disorder. Methods - A prospective observational study was performed collecting: patient's age, gender, underlying disorder, NRS-2002, BMI, serum albumin, transferrin and TE concentration. We used ferrozine colorimetric method for Fe; Inductively Coupled Plasma-Atomic Emission Spectroscopy for Zn/Cu; Furnace Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy for Se/Cr. The patients were divided into head and neck cancer (HNC) and neurological dysphagia (ND). Results - 146 patients (89 males), 21–95 years: HNC-56; ND-90. Low BMI in 78. Low values mostly for Zn (n = 122) and Fe (n = 69), but less for Se (n = 31), Cu (n = 16), Cr (n = 7); low albumin in 77, low transferrin in 94 and 66 with both proteins low. Significant differences between the groups of underlying disease only for Zn (t140.326 = −2,642, p < 0.01) and a correlation between proteins and TE respectively albumin and Zn (r = 0.197, p = 0.025), and albumin and Fe (r = 0.415, p = 0.000). Conclusions - When gastrostomy was performed, patients display low serum TE namely Zn, but also Fe, less striking regarding others TE. It was related with prolonged fasting, whatever the underlying disease. Low proteins were associated with low TE. Teams taking care of PEG-patients should use Zn supplementation and include other TE evaluation as part of the nutritional assessment of PEG candidates.

Long-term dependence in financial prices: evidence from the Belgian stock market returns

This article aims to contribute to the discussion of long-term dependence, focusing on the behavior of the main Belgian stock index. Non-parametric analyzes of the general characteristics of temporal frequency show that daily returns are non-ergodic and non-stationary. Therefore, we use the rescaled-range analysis (R/S) and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), under the fractional Brownian motion approach, and we found slight evidence of long-term dependence. These results refute the random walk hypothesis with i.i.d. increments, which is the basis of the EMH in its weak form, and call into question some theoretical modeling of asset pricing. Other more localized complementary study, to identify the evolution of the degree of dependence over time windows, showed that the index has become less persistent from 2010. This may mean a maturing market by the extension of the effects of current financial crisis.

Long-term memory in financial prices: evidence from the Dutch stock market returns

Prepared for presentation at the Portuguese Finance Network International Conference 2014, Vilamoura, Portugal, June 18-20

Long term follow-up and patterns of response of ALT in patients with chronic hepatitis NANB/C treated with recombinant interferon-alpha

The response to interferon treatment in chronic hepatitis NANB/C has usually been classified as complete, partial or absent, according to the behavior of serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT). However, a more detailed observation of the enzymatic activity has shown that the patterns may be more complex. The aim of this study was to describe the long term follow-up and patterns of ALT response in patients with chronic hepatitis NANB/C treated with recombinant interferon-alpha. A follow-up of 6 months or more after interferon-a was achieved in 44 patients. We have classified the serum ALT responses into six patterns and the observed frequencies were as follows: I. Long term response = 9 (20.5%); II. Normalization followed by persistent relapse after IFN = 7 (15.9%); III. Normalization with transient relapse = 5 (11.9%); IV. Temporary normalization and relapse during IFN = 4 (9.1%); V. Partial response (more than 50% of ALT decrease) = 7 (15.9%); VI. No response = 12 (27.3%). In conclusion, ALT patterns vary widely during and after IFN treatment and can be classified in at least 6 types.

Expatriates recruitment and selection for long-term international assignments in portuguese companies

Long-term international assignments’ increase requires more attention being paid for the preparation of these foreign assignments, especially on the recruitment and selection process of expatriates. This article explores how the recruitment and selection process of expatriates is developed in Portuguese companies, examining the main criteria on recruitment and selection of expatriates’ decision to send international assignments. The paper is based on qualitative case studies of companies located in Portugal. The data were collected through semi-structured interviews of 42 expatriates and 18 organisational representatives as well from nine Portuguese companies. The findings show that the most important criteria are: (1) trust from managers, (2) years in service, (3) previous technical and language competences, (4) organisational knowledge and, (5) availability. Based on the findings, the article discusses in detail the main theoretical and managerial implications. Suggestions for further research are also presented.

Interpreting change in human-nature and long term social relationships

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Ciências do Ambiente, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia.

WIDESPREAD CUTANEOUS LESIONS DUE TO Sporothrix schenckii IN A PATIENT UNDER A LONG TERM STEROIDS THERAPY

A case of sporotrichosis in a woman presenting 63 cutaneous lesions distributed all over the tegument is related. The patient had both humoral (Immunoglobulins) and cellular (Lymphocytes subpopulations) immunity within normal limits, but was under treatment with steroid during a long time (Prednisone 10 mg daily for 2 years), due to a sciatic pain. In addition a review of the Brazilian literature on this type of lesions was carried out and commented.

Chronic hepatitis C virus infections in Brazilian patients: association with genotypes, clinical parameters and response to long term alpha interferon therapy

The present study assessed the clinical significance of hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotypes and their influence on response to long term recombinant-interferon-alpha (r-IFN-a) therapy in Brazilian patients. One hundred and thirty samples from patients previously genotyped for the HCV and with histologically confirmed chronic hepatitis C (CH-C) were evaluated for clinical and epidemiological parameters (sex, age, time of HCV infection and transmission routes). No difference in disease activity, sex, age or mode and time of transmission were seen among patients infected with HCV types 1, 2 or 3. One hundred and thirteen of them were treated with 3 million units of r-IFN-a, 3 times a week for 12 months. Initial response (IR) was significantly better in patients with genotype 2 (100%) and 3 (46%) infections than in patients with genotype 1 (29%) (p < 0.005). Among subtypes, difference in IR was observed between 1b and 2 (p < 0.005), and between 1b and 3a (p < 0.05). Sustained response (SR) was observed in 12% for (sub)type 1a, 13% for 1b, 19% for 3a, and 40% for type 2; significant differences were found between 1b and 2 (p < 0.001), and between 1b and 3a (p < 0.05). Moreover, presence of cirrhosis was significantly associated with non response and response with relapse (p < 0.05). In conclusion, non-1 HCV genotype and lack of histological diagnosis of cirrhosis were the only baseline features associated with sustained response to treatment. These data indicate that HCV genotyping may have prognostic relevance in the responsiveness to r-IFN-a therapy in Brazilian patients with chronic HCV infection, as seen in other reports worldwide.

Nosocomial infection in long-term care facilities. A survey in a Brazilian psychiatric hospital

Nosocomial infection among male patients in a public psychiatric hospital was studied and the definitions for use in long-term care facilities were employed for diagnosis. The overall nosocomial infection rate was 6.7 per 1,000 day inpatients; 55.6% of these infections were identified in the respiratory tract, 50% of them being respiratory viral diseases; 38.9% of the nosocomial infections involved the eyes, ears, nose, throat and mouth, and 5.6% involved the skin and soft tissues. The epidemiological characteristics and the main clinical alterations of these inpatients were also identified.