A new long-term lifetime distribution induced by a latent complementary risk framework

In this paper, we proposed a new three-parameter long-term lifetime distribution induced by a latent complementary risk framework with decreasing, increasing and unimodal hazard function, the long-term complementary exponential geometric distribution. The new distribution arises from latent competing risk scenarios, where the lifetime associated scenario, with a particular risk, is not observable, rather we observe only the maximum lifetime value among all risks, and the presence of long-term survival. The properties of the proposed distribution are discussed, including its probability density function and explicit algebraic formulas for its reliability, hazard and quantile functions and order statistics. The parameter estimation is based on the usual maximum-likelihood approach. A simulation study assesses the performance of the estimation procedure. We compare the new distribution with its particular cases, as well as with the long-term Weibull distribution on three real data sets, observing its potential and competitiveness in comparison with some usual long-term lifetime distributions.

The polysurvival model with long-term survivors

Long-term survival models have historically been considered for analyzing time-to-event data with long-term survivors fraction. However, situations in which a fraction (1 - p) of systems is subject to failure from independent competing causes of failure, while the remaining proportion p is cured or has not presented the event of interest during the time period of the study, have not been fully considered in the literature. In order to accommodate such situations, we present in this paper a new long-term survival model. Maximum likelihood estimation procedure is discussed as well as interval estimation and hypothesis tests. A real dataset illustrates the methodology.

Long-term amphetamine treatment exacerbates inflammatory lung reaction while decreases airway hyper-responsiveness after allergic stimulus in rats

Asthma is an allergic lung disease can be modulated by drugs that modify the activity of central nervous system (CNS) such as amphetamine (AMPH). AMPH is a highly abused drug that exerts potent effects on behavior and immunity. In this study we investigated the mechanism involved in the effects of long-term AMPH treatment on the increased magnitude of allergic lung response. We evaluated mast cells degranulation, cytokines release, airways responsiveness and, expression of adhesion molecules. Male Wistar rats were treated with AMPH or vehicle (PBS) for 21 days and sensitized with ovalbumin (OVA) one week after the first injection of vehicle or AMPH. Fourteen days after the sensitization, the rats were challenged with an OVA aerosol, and 24 h later their parameters were analyzed. In allergic rats, the treatment with AMPH exacerbated the lung cell recruitment due increased expression of ICAM-1, PECAM-1 and Mac-1 in granulocytes and macrophages recovered from bronchoalveolar lavage. Elevated levels of IL-4, but decreased levels of IL-10 were also found in samples of lung explants after AMPH treatment. Conversely, the ex-vivo tracheal hyper-responsiveness to methacholine (MCh) was reduced by AMPH treatment, whereas the force contraction of tracheal segments due to in vitro antigen challenge remained unaltered. Our findings suggest that lung inflammation and airway hyper-responsiveness due to OVA challenge are under the distinct control of AMPH during long-term treatment. Our data strongly indicate that AMPH positively modulates allergic lung inflammation via the increase of ICAM-1, PECAM-1, Mac-1 and IL-4. AMPH also abrogates the release of the anti-inflammatory cytokine IL-10. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Accuracy of positron emission tomography/computed tomography and clinical assessment in the detection of complete rectal tumor regression after neoadjuvant chemoradiation Long-Term Results of a Prospective Trial (National Clinical Trial 00254683)

BACKGROUND: Neoadjuvant chemoradiation (CRT) therapy may result in significant tumor regression in patients with rectal cancer. Patients who develop complete tumor regression have been managed by treatment strategies that are alternatives to standard total mesorectal excision. Therefore, assessment of tumor response with positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) after neoadjuvant treatment may offer relevant information for the selection of patients to receive alternative treatment strategies. METHODS: Patients with clinical T2 (cT2) through cT4NxM0 rectal adenocarcinoma were included prospectively. Neoadjuvant therapy consisted of 54 grays of radiation and 5-fluorouracil-based chemotherapy. Baseline PET/CT studies were obtained before CRT followed by PET/CT studies at 6 weeks and 12 weeks after the completion of CRT. Clinical assessment was performed at 12 weeks after CRT completion. PET/CT results were compared with clinical and pathologic data. RESULTS: In total, 99 patients were included in the study. Twenty-three patients were complete responders (16 had a complete clinical response, and 7 had a complete pathologic response). The PET/CT response evaluation at 12 weeks indicated that 18 patients had a complete response, and 81 patients had an incomplete response. There were 5 false-negative and 10 false-positive PET/CT results. PET/CT for the detection of residual cancer had 93% sensitivity, 53% specificity, a 73% negative predictive value, an 87% positive predictive value, and 85% accuracy. Clinical assessment alone resulted in an accuracy of 91%. PET/CT information may have detected misdiagnoses made by clinical assessment alone, improving overall accuracy to 96%. CONCLUSIONS: Assessment of tumor response at 12 weeks after CRT completion with PET/CT imaging may provide a useful additional tool with good overall accuracy for the selection of patients who may avoid unnecessary radical resection after achieving a complete clinical response. Cancer 2012;35013511. (C) 2011 American Cancer Society.

Uric acid biorhythm, a feature of long-term variation in a clinical laboratory database

Background: The biorhythm of serum uric acid was evaluated in a large sample of a clinical laboratory database by spectral analysis and the influence of the gender and age on uric acid variability. Methods: Serum uric acid values were extracted from a large database of a clinical laboratory from May 2000 to August 2006. Outlier values were excluded from the analysis and the remaining data (n = 73,925) were grouped by gender and age ranges. Rhythm components were obtained by the Lomb Scargle method and Cosinor analysis. Results: Serum uric acid was higher in men than in women older than 13 years (p<0.05). Compared with 0-12 year group, uric acid increased in men but not in women older than 13 years (p<0.05). Circannual (12 months) and transyear (17 months) rhythm components were detected, but they were significant only in adult individuals (>26 years, p<0.05). Cosinor analysis showed that midline estimating statistic of rhythm (MESOR) values were higher in men (range: 353-368 mu mol/L) than in women (range: 240-278 mu mol/L; p<0.05), independent of the age and rhythm component. The extent of predictable change within a cycle, approximated by the double amplitude, represented up to 20% of the corresponding MESOR. Conclusions: Serum uric acid biorhythm is dependent on gender and age and it may have relevant influence on preanalytical variability of clinical laboratory results.

Predictors of long-term survival among first-ever ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke in a Brazilian stroke cohort

Abstract Background Few studies have examined both ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke to identify prognostic factors associated to long-term stroke survival. We investigated long-term survival and predictors that could adversely influence ischemic and hemorrhagic first-ever stroke prognosis. Methods We prospectively ascertained 665 consecutive first-ever ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke cases from “The Study of Stroke Mortality and Morbidity” (The EMMA Study) in a community hospital in São Paulo, Brazil. We evaluated cardiovascular risk factors and sociodemographic characteristics (age, gender, race and educational level). Results We found a lower survival rate among hemorrhagic cases compared to ischemic stroke cases at the end of 4 years of follow-up (52% vs. 44%, p = 0.04). The risk of death was two times higher among people with ischemic stroke without formal education. Also, we found consistently higher risk of death for diabetics with ischemic stroke (HR = 1.45; 95% CI = 1.07-1.97) compared to no diabetics. As expected, age equally influenced on the high risk of poor survival, regardless of stroke subtype. Conclusions For ischemic stroke, the lack of formal education and diabetes were significant independent predictors of poor long-term survival.

Long-term cardiac changes in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus

Abstract Background The aim of this study was evaluate the late-onset repercussions of heart alterations of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) after a 13-year follow up. Methods A historical prospective study was carried out involving the analysis of data from the charts of patients with a confirmed diagnosis of lupus in follow up since 1998. The 13-year evolution was systematically reviewed and tabulated to facilitate the interpretation of the data. Results Forty-eight patient charts were analyzed. Mean patient age was 34.5 ± 10.8 years at the time of diagnosis and 41.0 ± 10.3 years at the time of the study (45 women and 3 men). Eight deaths occurred in the follow-up period (two due to heart problems). Among the alterations found on the complementary exams, 46.2% of cases demonstrated worsening at reevaluation and four patients required a heart catheterization. In these cases, coronary angioplasty was performed due to the severity of the obstructions and one case required a further catheterization, culminating in the need for surgical myocardial revascularization. Conclusion The analysis demonstrated progressive heart impairment, with high rates of alterations on conventional complementary exams, including the need for angioplasty or revascularization surgery in four patients. These findings indicate the need for rigorous cardiac follow up in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus.

Long-term effects of oil pollution in mangrove forests (Baixada Santista, Southeast Brazil) detected using a GIS-based multitemporal analysis of aerial photographs

Oil spills are potential threats to the integrity of highly productive coastal wetlands, such as mangrove forests. In October 1983, a mangrove area of nearly 300 ha located on the southeastern coast of Brazil was impacted by a 3.5 million liter crude oil spill released by a broken pipeline. In order to assess the long-term effects of oil pollution on mangrove vegetation, we carried out a GIS-based multitemporal analysis of aerial photographs of the years 1962, 1994, 2000 and 2003. Photointerpretation, visual classification, class quantification, ground-truth and vegetation structure data were combined to evaluate the oil impact. Before the spill, the mangroves exhibited a homogeneous canopy and well-developed stands. More than ten years after the spill, the mangrove vegetation exhibited three distinct zones reflecting the long-term effects of the oil pollution. The most impacted zone (10.5 ha) presented dead trees, exposed substrate and recovering stands with reduced structural development. We suggest that the distinct impact and recovery zones reflect the spatial variability of oil removal rates in the mangrove forest. This study identifies the multitemporal analysis of aerial photographs as a useful tool for assessing a system's capacity for recovery and monitoring the long-term residual effects of pollutants on vegetation dynamics, thus giving support to mangrove forest management and conservation.

Hunting practices among the Awá-Guajá: towards a long-term analysis of sustainability in an Amazonian indigenous community

Indigenous Reserves have played an indispensable role in maintaining forest areas in the Neotropics. In the Amazon there is a clear correlation between these reserves and the presence of forest cover; however, the simple presence of uninterrupted vegetation is no guarantee for the conservation of biodiversity, especially where hunting is practiced. This study describes hunting practices among the Awá-Guajá people from 1993 through 1994, also identifying sociocultural, technological, and demographic changes that have influenced their resource acquisition strategies over the last two decades. The data was obtained through ethnographic fieldwork, recording 78 days of foraging returns, with follow-up visits through 2010. This work provides useful information for an effective diachronic analysis of hunting in this community, by revealing foraging patterns of the early to mid-1990s, and describing community transformations over the last two decades in this locale.

IFN-γ-induced priming maintains long-term strain-transcending immunity against blood-stage Plasmodium chabaudi malaria

The mechanism by which protective immunity to Plasmodium is lost in the absence of continued exposure to this parasite has yet to be fully elucidated. It has been recently shown that IFN-γ produced during human and murine acute malaria primes the immune response to TLR agonists. In this study, we investigated whether IFN-γ-induced priming is important to maintain long-term protective immunity against Plasmodium chabaudi AS malaria. On day 60 postinfection, C57BL/6 mice still had chronic parasitemia and efficiently controlled homologous and heterologous (AJ strain) challenge. The spleens of chronic mice showed augmented numbers of effector/effector memory (TEM) CD4(+) cells, which is associated with increased levels of IFN-γ-induced priming (i.e., high expression of IFN-inducible genes and TLR hyperresponsiveness). After parasite elimination, IFN-γ-induced priming was no longer detected and protective immunity to heterologous challenge was mostly lost with >70% mortality. Spontaneously cured mice had high serum levels of parasite-specific IgG, but effector T/TEM cell numbers, parasite-driven CD4(+) T cell proliferation, and IFN-γ production were similar to noninfected controls. Remarkably, the priming of cured mice with low doses of IFN-γ rescued TLR hyperresponsiveness and the capacity to control heterologous challenge, increasing the TEM cell population and restoring the CD4(+) T cell responses to parasites. Contribution of TLR signaling to the CD4(+) T cell responses in chronic mice was supported by data obtained in mice lacking the MyD88 adaptor. These results indicate that IFN-γ-induced priming is required to maintain protective immunity against P. chabaudi and aid in establishing the molecular basis of strain-transcending immunity in human malaria.

Long-term dietary exposure to lead in young European children: comparing a pan-European approach with a national exposure assessment

Long-term dietary exposures to lead in young children were calculated by combining food consumption data of 11 European countries categorised using harmonised broad food categories with occurrence data on lead from different Member States (pan-European approach). The results of the assessment in children living in the Netherlands were compared with a long-term lead intake assessment in the same group using Dutch lead concentration data and linking the consumption and concentration data at the highest possible level of detail. Exposures obtained with the pan-European approach were higher than the national exposure calculations. For both assessments cereals contributed most to the exposure. The lower dietary exposure in the national study was due to the use of lower lead concentrations and...

Analysis of eruptive and seismic sequences to improve the short-and long-term eruption forecasting

Forecasting the time, location, nature, and scale of volcanic eruptions is one of the most urgent aspects of modern applied volcanology. The reliability of probabilistic forecasting procedures is strongly related to the reliability of the input information provided, implying objective criteria for interpreting the historical and monitoring data. For this reason both, detailed analysis of past data and more basic research into the processes of volcanism, are fundamental tasks of a continuous information-gain process; in this way the precursor events of eruptions can be better interpreted in terms of their physical meanings with correlated uncertainties. This should lead to better predictions of the nature of eruptive events. In this work we have studied different problems associated with the long- and short-term eruption forecasting assessment. First, we discuss different approaches for the analysis of the eruptive history of a volcano, most of them generally applied for long-term eruption forecasting purposes; furthermore, we present a model based on the characteristics of a Brownian passage-time process to describe recurrent eruptive activity, and apply it for long-term, time-dependent, eruption forecasting (Chapter 1). Conversely, in an effort to define further monitoring parameters as input data for short-term eruption forecasting in probabilistic models (as for example, the Bayesian Event Tree for eruption forecasting -BET_EF-), we analyze some characteristics of typical seismic activity recorded in active volcanoes; in particular, we use some methodologies that may be applied to analyze long-period (LP) events (Chapter 2) and volcano-tectonic (VT) seismic swarms (Chapter 3); our analysis in general are oriented toward the tracking of phenomena that can provide information about magmatic processes. Finally, we discuss some possible ways to integrate the results presented in Chapters 1 (for long-term EF), 2 and 3 (for short-term EF) in the BET_EF model (Chapter 4).

Validation of a new method to assess the long-term Hypothalamic-Pituitary-Adrenal Activity using hair glucocorticoids as biomarkers. - Studies on pigs and laboratory Sprague-Dawley Rats

The evaluation of chronic activity of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis is critical for determining the impact of chronic stressful situations. The potential use of hair glucocorticoids as a non-invasive, retrospective, biomarker of long term HPA activity is of great interest, and it is gaining acceptance in humans and animals. However, there are still no studies in literature examining hair cortisol concentration in pigs and corticosterone concentration in laboratory rodents. Therefore, we developed and validated, for the first time, a method for measuring hair glucocorticoids concentration in commercial sows and in Sprague-Dawley rats. Our preliminary data demonstrated: 1) a validated and specific washing protocol and extraction assay method with a good sensitivity in both species; 2) the effect of the reproductive phase, housing conditions and seasonality on hair cortisol concentration in sows; 3) similar hair corticosterone concentration in male and female rats; 4) elevated hair corticosterone concentration in response to chronic stress manipulations and chronic ACTH administration, demonstrating that hair provides a good direct index of HPA activity over long periods than other indirect parameters, such adrenal or thymus weight. From these results we believe that this new non-invasive tool needs to be applied to better characterize the overall impact in livestock animals and in laboratory rodents of chronic stressful situations that negatively affect animals welfare. Nevertheless, further studies are needed to improve this methodology and maybe to develop animal models for chronic stress of high interest and translational value in human medicine.

Endocarditis due to Tropheryma whipplei: rapid detection, limited genetic diversity, and long-term clinical outcome in a local experience

The characteristic features of Whipple's disease include abdominal pain, diarrhoea, wasting, and arthralgias, with the causative agent, Tropheryma whipplei, being detected mainly in intestinal biopsies. PCR technology has led to the identification of T. whipplei in specimens from various other locations, including the central nervous system and the heart. T. whipplei is now recognized as one of the causes of culture-negative endocarditis, and endocarditis can be the only manifestation of the infection with T. whipplei. Although it is considered a rare disease, the true incidence of endocarditis due to T. whipplei is not clearly established. With the increasing use of molecular methods, it is likely that T. whipplei will be more frequently identified. Questions also remain about the genetic variability of T. whipplei strains, optimal diagnostic procedures and therapeutic options. In the present study, we provide clinical data on four new patients with documented endocarditis due to T. whipplei in the context of the available published literature. There was no clinical involvement of the gastrointestinal tract. Genetic analysis of the T. whipplei strains with DNA isolated from the excised heart valves revealed little to no genetic variability. In a selected case, we describe acridine orange staining for early detection of the disease, prompting early adaptation of the antibiotic therapy. We provide long-term follow-up data on the patients. In our hands, an initial 2-week course of intravenous antibiotics followed by cotrimoxazole for at least 1 year was a suitable treatment option for T. whipplei endocarditis.

Long-term outcome of acute encephalitis of unknown aetiology in adults

Encephalitis is caused by a variety of conditions, including infections of the brain by a wide range of pathogens. A substantial number of cases of encephalitis defy all attempts at identifying a specific cause. Little is known about the long-term prognosis in patients with encephalitis of unknown aetiology, which complicates their management during the acute illness. To learn more about the prognosis of patients with encephalitis of unknown aetiology, patients in whom no aetiology could be identified were examined in a large, single-centre encephalitis cohort. In addition to analysing the clinical data of the acute illness, surviving patients were assessed by telephone interview a minimum of 2 years after the acute illness by applying a standardized test battery. Of the patients with encephalitis who qualified for inclusion (n = 203), 39 patients (19.2%) had encephalitis of unknown aetiology. The case fatality in these patients was 12.8%. Among the survivors, 53% suffered from various neurological sequelae, most often attention and sensory deficits. Among the features at presentation that were associated with adverse outcome were older age, increased C-reactive protein, coma and a high percentage of polymorphonuclear cells in the cerebrospinal fluid. In conclusion, the outcome in an unselected cohort of patients with encephalitis of unknown aetiology was marked by substantial case fatality and by long-term neurological deficits in approximately one-half of the surviving patients. Certain features on admission predicted an unfavourable outcome.