Logistic regression analysis of potential prognostic factors for pulmonary thromboembolism

Objective: To identify potential prognostic factors for pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE), establishing a mathematical model to predict the risk for fatal PTE and nonfatal PTE.Method: the reports on 4,813 consecutive autopsies performed from 1979 to 1998 in a Brazilian tertiary referral medical school were reviewed for a retrospective study. From the medical records and autopsy reports of the 512 patients found with macroscopically and/or microscopically,documented PTE, data on demographics, underlying diseases, and probable PTE site of origin were gathered and studied by multiple logistic regression. Thereafter, the jackknife method, a statistical cross-validation technique that uses the original study patients to validate a clinical prediction rule, was performed.Results: the autopsy rate was 50.2%, and PTE prevalence was 10.6%. In 212 cases, PTE was the main cause of death (fatal PTE). The independent variables selected by the regression significance criteria that were more likely to be associated with fatal PTE were age (odds ratio [OR], 1.02; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00 to 1.03), trauma (OR, 8.5; 95% CI, 2.20 to 32.81), right-sided cardiac thrombi (OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.02 to 3.77), pelvic vein thrombi (OR, 3.46; 95% CI, 1.19 to 10.05); those most likely to be associated with nonfatal PTE were systemic arterial hypertension (OR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.33 to 0.80), pneumonia (OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.71), and sepsis (OR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.06 to 0.40). The results obtained from the application of the equation in the 512 cases studied using logistic regression analysis suggest the range in which logit p > 0.336 favors the occurrence of fatal PTE, logit p < - 1.142 favors nonfatal PTE, and logit P with intermediate values is not conclusive. The cross-validation prediction misclassification rate was 25.6%, meaning that the prediction equation correctly classified the majority of the cases (74.4%).Conclusions: Although the usefulness of this method in everyday medical practice needs to be confirmed by a prospective study, for the time being our results suggest that concerning prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of PTE, strict attention should be given to those patients presenting the variables that are significant in the logistic regression model.

Choosing between Cox proportional hazards and logistic models for interval-censored data via bootstrap

This work develops a new methodology in order to discriminate models for interval-censored data based on bootstrap residual simulation by observing the deviance difference from one model in relation to another, according to Hinde (1992). Generally, this sort of data can generate a large number of tied observations and, in this case, survival time can be regarded as discrete. Therefore, the Cox proportional hazards model for grouped data (Prentice & Gloeckler, 1978) and the logistic model (Lawless, 1982) can befitted by means of generalized linear models. Whitehead (1989) considered censoring to be an indicative variable with a binomial distribution and fitted the Cox proportional hazards model using complementary log-log as a link function. In addition, a logistic model can be fitted using logit as a link function. The proposed methodology arises as an alternative to the score tests developed by Colosimo et al. (2000), where such models can be obtained for discrete binary data as particular cases from the Aranda-Ordaz distribution asymmetric family. These tests are thus developed with a basis on link functions to generate such a fit. The example that motivates this study was the dataset from an experiment carried out on a flax cultivar planted on four substrata susceptible to the pathogen Fusarium oxysoprum. The response variable, which is the time until blighting, was observed in intervals during 52 days. The results were compared with the model fit and the AIC values.

Critical points in logistic growth curves and treatment comparisons

Several biological phenomena have a behavior over time mathematically characterized by a strong increasing function in the early stages of development, then by a less pronounced growth, sometimes showing stability. The separation between these phases is very important to the researcher, since the maintenance of a less productive phase results in uneconomical activity. In this report we present methods of determining critical points in logistic functions that separate the early stages of growth from the asymptotic phase, with the aim of establishing a stopping critical point in the growth and on this basis determine differences in treatments. The logistic growth model is fitted to experimental data of imbibition of arariba seeds (Centrolobium tomentosum). To determine stopping critical points the following methods were used: i) accelerating growth function, ii) tangent at the inflection point, iii) segmented regression; iv) modified segmented regression; v) non-significant difference; and vi) non-significant difference by simulation. The analysis of variance of the abscissas and ordinates of the breakpoints was performed with the objective of comparing treatments and methods used to determine the critical points. The methods of segmented regression and of the tangent at the inflection point lead to early stopping points, in comparison with other methods, with proportions ordinate/asymptote lower than 0.90. The non-significant difference method by simulation had higher values of abscissas for stopping point, with an average proportion ordinate/asymptote equal to 0.986. An intermediate proportion of 0.908 was observed for the acceleration function method.

Comparative RH Maps of the River Buffalo and Bovine Y Chromosomes

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Topological signatures in CMB temperature anisotropy maps

We propose an alternative formalism to simulate cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature maps in Lambda CDM universes with nontrivial spatial topologies. This formalism avoids the need to explicitly compute the eigenmodes of the Laplacian operator in the spatial sections. Instead, the covariance matrix of the coefficients of the spherical harmonic decomposition of the temperature anisotropies is expressed in terms of the elements of the covering group of the space. We obtain a decomposition of the correlation matrix that isolates the topological contribution to the CMB temperature anisotropies out of the simply connected contribution. A further decomposition of the topological signature of the correlation matrix for an arbitrary topology allows us to compute it in terms of correlation matrices corresponding to simpler topologies, for which closed quadrature formulas might be derived. We also use this decomposition to show that CMB temperature maps of (not too large) multiply connected universes must show patterns of alignment, and propose a method to look for these patterns, thus opening the door to the development of new methods for detecting the topology of our Universe even when the injectivity radius of space is slightly larger than the radius of the last scattering surface. We illustrate all these features with the simplest examples, those of flat homogeneous manifolds, i.e., tori, with special attention given to the cylinder, i.e., T-1 topology.

Finding critical exponents for two-dimensional Hamiltonian maps

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Coincidence points of fiber maps on S-n-bundles

In this note we study coincidence of pairs of fiber-preserving maps f, g : E-1 -> E-2 where E-1, E-2 are S-n-bundles over a space B. We will show that for each homotopy class vertical bar f vertical bar of fiber-preserving maps over B, there is only one homotopy class vertical bar g vertical bar such that the pair (f, g), where vertical bar g vertical bar = vertical bar tau circle f vertical bar can be deformed to a coincidence free pair. Here tau : E-2 -> E-2 is a fiber-preserving map which is fixed point free. In the case where the base is S-1 we classify the bundles, the homotopy classes of maps over S-1 and the pairs which can be deformed to coincidence free. At the end we discuss the self-coincidence problem. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Abelianized obstruction for fixed points of fiber-preserving maps of surface bundles

Let f: M -> M be a fiber-preserving map where S -> M -> B is a bundle and S is a closed surface. We study the abelianized obstruction, which is a cohomology class in dimension 2, to deform f to a fixed point free map by a fiber-preserving homotopy. The vanishing of this obstruction is only a necessary condition in order to have such deformation, but in some cases it is sufficient. We describe this obstruction and we prove that the vanishing of this class is equivalent to the existence of solution of a system of equations over a certain group ring with coefficients given by Fox derivatives.

Development of environmental and natural vulnerability maps for Brazilian coastal at Sao Sebastiao in São Paulo State

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Logistic regression to estimate the welfare of broiler breeders in relation to environmental and behavioral variables

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

PhotoLin: a program to identify and analyze linear structures in aerial photographs, satellite images and maps

A computer program, PhotoLin, written for an IBM-PC-compatible microcomputer is described which detects linear features in aerial photographs, satellite images and topographic maps. The program accepts images saved to PCX files as input and applies noise correction and smoothing filters and thinning routines. The output consists of a skeleton containing the median lines of linear features which can be represented on a map. The branches of the skeleton can be broken into sections of constant length for which the mean orientations are obtained for the preparation of rose diagrams. (C) 2001 Elsevier B.V. Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulation of electron density maps for two-dimensional crystal structures using Mathematica

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)