Mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models with an application to insurance

In a recent paper Bermúdez [2009] used bivariate Poisson regression models for ratemaking in car insurance, and included zero-inflated models to account for the excess of zeros and the overdispersion in the data set. In the present paper, we revisit this model in order to consider alternatives. We propose a 2-finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models to demonstrate that the overdispersion in the data requires more structure if it is to be taken into account, and that a simple zero-inflated bivariate Poisson model does not suffice. At the same time, we show that a finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models embraces zero-inflated bivariate Poisson regression models as a special case. Additionally, we describe a model in which the mixing proportions are dependent on covariates when modelling the way in which each individual belongs to a separate cluster. Finally, an EM algorithm is provided in order to ensure the models’ ease-of-fit. These models are applied to the same automobile insurance claims data set as used in Bermúdez [2009] and it is shown that the modelling of the data set can be improved considerably.

Growth, unemployment and wage inertia

We introduce wage setting via efficiency wages in the neoclassical one-sector growth model to study the growth effects of wage inertia. We compare the dynamic equilibrium of an economy with wage inertia with the equilibrium of an economy without wage inertia. We show that wage inertia affects the long run employment rate and that the transitional dynamics of the main economic variables will be different because wages are a state variable when wage inertia is introduced. In particular, we show non-monotonic transitions in the economy with wage inertia that do not arise in the economy with flexible wages. We also study the growth effects of permanent technological and fiscal policy shocks in these two economies. During the transition, the growth effects of technological shocks obtained when wages exhibit inertia may be the opposite from the ones obtained when wages are flexible. In the long run, these technological shocks may have long run effects if there is wage inertia. We also show that the growth effects of fiscal policies will be delayed when there is wage inertia.

A logistic regression approach to estimating customer profit loss due to lapses in insurance

This article focuses on business risk management in the insurance industry. A methodology for estimating the profit loss caused by each customer in the portfolio due to policy cancellation is proposed. Using data from a European insurance company, customer behaviour over time is analyzed in order to estimate the probability of policy cancelation and the resulting potential profit loss due to cancellation. Customers may have up to two different lines of business contracts: motor insurance and other diverse insurance (such as, home contents, life or accident insurance). Implications for understanding customer cancellation behaviour as the core of business risk management are outlined.

Facing the challenge: The impact of the recession and unemployment on men's health in Ireland

The economic recession with its accompanying rise in unemployment rates is linked to extremely adverse effects for men’s mental health. This research report Facing the Challenge – The Impact of the Recession and Unemployment on Men’s Health in Ireland identifies a strong expectation of increased mental health problems for men given the very strong correlation between unemployment and male mental ill health. The report is the result of a research and consultation process carried out, in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, by Nexus Research Co-operative on behalf of IPH. 93% of frontline organisations, North and South, in contact with unemployed men linked health challenges to unemployment and recession and all organisations surveyed noted adverse health challenges for men they work with. In addition to health challenges being higher for unemployed men, they were also very high for men who saw themselves as being threatened with unemployment. The organisations surveyed and the men who were interviewed identified the challenges to health as:•    High levels of stress or anxiety•    Dependency on or over-use of alcohol/other drugs•    Deterioration in physical health•    Development of conflict in family or close personal relationships•    Isolation (including sharing or communicating problems)•    A reluctance to approach services or seek help

Price policies and Price dispersion in the private healthcare insurance industry: The Catalan case

We present an overlapping generations model that explains price dispersion among Catalonian healthcare insurance firms. The model shows that firms with different premium policies can coexist. Furthermore, if interest rates are low, firms that apply equal premium to all insureds can charge higher average prices than insurers that set premiums according to the risk of insured. Economic theory, health insurance, health economics.

Discrete time Non-homogeneous Semi-Markov Processes applied to Models for Disability Insurance

In this paper, we present a stochastic model for disability insurance contracts. The model is based on a discrete time non-homogeneous semi-Markov process (DTNHSMP) to which the backward recurrence time process is introduced. This permits a more exhaustive study of disability evolution and a more efficient approach to the duration problem. The use of semi-Markov reward processes facilitates the possibility of deriving equations of the prospective and retrospective mathematical reserves. The model is applied to a sample of contracts drawn at random from a mutual insurance company.

White Paper on Private Health Insurance

This White Paper, which arises from commitments in the Action Programme for the New Millennium, sets out the Government’s policy objectives and proposals regarding the role of private health insurance in the overall healthcare system, the regulation of the health insurance market, and the corporate structure and status of the Voluntary Health Insurance Board Download the Report here

Private Medical Insurance in Ireland

Private Medical Insurance in Ireland On 17 January 2007 The Minister for Health and Children announced that she had appointed a three person group comprising Colm Barrington (chair), Seamus Creedon and Dorothea Dowling (the Group) to carry out a business appraisal of the private medical insurance (PMI) market in Ireland and to report back to her on the subject by 31 March 2007. The Ministerâ?Ts announcement included the following terms of reference for the Group: Click here to download PDF 351kb

Supplementary Report of the HIA to the Minister for Health, in accordance with Section 7E(1)(b) of the Health Insurance Acts, 1994-2009 (Redacted Version)

The purpose of this Supplementary Report is to advise on how the budgetary measures impact on the conclusions in relation to tax credits and stamp duty included in the Authority’s November 2011 Report. in doing so, we will assess the direct impacts and we will discuss some scenarios. However, the Authority’s advice in this area relies on projections of the health insurance market and, in light of the above, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding any projections of how claims inflation or the market size may develop, even in the short and medium terms. Supplementary Report of the HIA to the Minister for Health, in accordance with Section 7E(1)(b) of the Health Insurance Acts, 1994-2009 (Redacted Version) Click here to download PDF 3.2mb

Report of the HIA to the Minister for Health, in accordance with Section 7E(1)(b) of the Health Insurance Acts, 1994-2009 (Redacted Version)

The Authority has been asked by the Minister for Health to prepare a Report under Section 7E (1) (b) of the Health Insurance Acts 1994-2009 (“the Health Insurance Acts”). For the purposes of the legislation, the relevant period is 1 July 2010 to 30 June 2011. The basis of the Report is specified in the legislation   Click here to download PDF 7.3mb Click here to download the supplementary document PDF 3.2mb

Review of Measures to Reduce Costs in the Private Health Insurance Market 2013

Independent Report to the Minister for Health and Health Insurance Council Click here to download PDF 179KB  

Report to the Minister for Health from the Health Insurance Authority (Redacted) on an evaluation and analysis of returns for 1 July 2012 to 30 June 2013 including advice on risk equalisation credits

Report to the Minister for Health from the Health Insurance Authority (Redacted) on an evaluation and analysis of returns for 1 July 2012 to 30 June 2013 including advice on risk equalisation credits Click here to download PDF 11MB