Risk taking of executives under different incentive contracts: experimental evidence

Classic financial agency theory recommends compensation through stock options rather than shares to counteract excessive risk aversion in agents. In a setting where any kind of risk taking is suboptimal for shareholders, we show that excessive risk taking may occur for one of two reasons: risk preferences or incentives. Even when compensated through restricted company stock, experimental CEOs take large amounts of excessive risk. This contradicts classical financial theory, but can be explained through risk preferences that are not uniform over the probability and outcome spaces, and in particular, risk seeking for small probability gains and large probability losses. Compensation through options further increases risk taking as expected. We show that this effect is driven mainly by the personal asset position of the experimental CEO, thus having deleterious effects on company performance.

Developments in the quality of treated greywater supplies for buildings, and associated user perception and acceptance

A manufactured aeration and nanofiltration MBR greywater system was tested during continuous operation at the University of Reading, to demonstrate reliability in delivery of high quality treated greywater. Its treatment performance was evaluated against British Standard criteria [BSI (Greywater Systems—Part 1 Code of Practice: BS8525-1:2010. BS Press, 2010); (Greywater Systems—Part 2 Domestic Greywater Treatment, Requirements and Methods: BS 8525-2:2011. BS Press, 2011)]. The low carbon greywater recycling technology produced excellent analytical results as well as consistency in performance. User acceptance of such reliably treated greywater was then evaluated through user perception studies. The results inform the potential supply of treated greywater to student accommodation. Out of 135 questionnaire replies, 95% demonstrated a lack of aversion in one or more attributes, to using treated, recycled greywater.

Negative anticipatory contrast: Does it involve anticipation of an impending reward?

Negative anticipatory contrast (NAC) corresponds to the suppression in consumption of a first rewarding substance (e.g., saccharin 0.15%) when it is followed daily by a second preferred substance (e.g., sucrose 32%). The NAC has been interpreted as resulting from anticipation of the impending preferred reward and its comparison with the currently available first reward [Flaherty, CF., Rowan, G.A., 1985. Anticipatory contrast: within-subjects analysis. Anim. Learn. Behav. 13, 2-5]. In this context, one should expect that devaluation of the preferred substance after the establishment of the NAC would either reduce or abolish the contrast effect. However, contrary to this prediction, the results of the present study show that the NAC is insensitive to devaluation of the second, preferred, substance. This allows one to question that interpretation. The results reported in this study support the view that the NAC effect is controlled by memory of the relative value of the first solution, which is updated daily by means of both a gustatory and/or post-ingestive comparison of the first and second solutions, and memory of past pairings. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pregnant Adolescents in Vietnam : Social context and health care needs

Background: The number of childbearing adolescents in Vietnam is relatively low but they are more prone to experience adverse outcome than adult women. Reports of increasing rates of abortion and prevalence of STIs including HIV among youth indicate a need to improve services and counselling for these groups. Midwives are key persons in the promotion of young people’s sexual and reproductive health in Vietnam. Aim: The overall aim of this thesis is to describe the prevalence and outcome of adolescent pregnancies in Vietnam (I), to explore the social context and health care seeking behavior of pregnant adolescents (II), as well as to explore the perspectives of health care providers and midwifery students regarding adolescent sexuality and reproductive health service needs (III, IV). Methods: The studies were conducted from 2002 to 2005, combining qualitative and quantitative research methods. A population based prospective survey was used to estimate rates and outcomes of adolescent pregnancies (I). Pregnant and newly delivered adolescents’ experiences of childbearing and their encounters with health care providers were studied using qualitative interviews (II). Health care providers’ perspective on adolescent sexual and reproductive health (ASRH) and views on how to improve the quality of abortion care was explored in focus group discussions (FGD). The values and attitudes of midwifery students about ASRH were investigated using questionnaires and interviews (IV). Descriptive statistics was used to analyse quantitative data (I, IV) and content analysis were applied for qualitative data (II, III, and IV). Findings: Adolescent birth rate was similar to previously reported in Vietnam but lower when compared to other Asian countries. The incidence of stillborn among adolescents was higher than for women in higher reproductive ages. The proportion of preterm deliveries was 20 % of all births, higher than previous findings from Vietnam. About 2 % of the deliveries were home deliveries, more common among women with low education, belonging to ethnic minority and/or living in mountainous areas (I). Ambivalence facing motherhood, pride and happiness but also worries and lack of self-confidence emerged as themes from the interviews; and experience of ‘being in the hands of others’ in a positive, caring sense but also in a sense of subordination in relation to husband, family and health care providers (II). Health care providers at abortion clinics and midwifery students generally disapproved of pre-marital sex, but had a pragmatic view on the need for contraceptive services and counselling to reduce the burden of unwanted pregnancies and abortions for young women. Providers and midwifery students expressed a need for training on ASRH issues (III, IV). Conclusion: Cultural norms and gender inequity make pregnant adolescent women in Vietnam vulnerable to sexual and reproductive health risks. Health care providers experience ethical dilemmas while counselling unmarried adolescents who come for abortion and this has a negative impact on the quality of care. Integrated ASRH in education and training programmes for health care providers, including midwives, as well as continued in-service training on these issues are suggested to improve reproductive health care services in Vietnam.

'They would never receive you without a husband' : Paradoxical barriers to antenatal care scale-up in Rwanda

OBJECTIVE: to explore perspectives and experiences of antenatal care and partner involvement among women who nearly died during pregnancy ('near-miss'). DESIGN: a study guided by naturalistic inquiry was conducted, and included extended in-community participant observation, semi-structured interviews, and focus group discussions. Qualitative data were collected between March 2013 and April 2014 in Kigali, Rwanda. FINDINGS: all informants were aware of the recommendations of male involvement for HIV-testing at the first antenatal care visit. However, this recommendation was seen as a clear link in the chain of delays and led to severe consequences, especially for women without engaged partners. The overall quality of antenatal services was experienced as suboptimal, potentially missing the opportunity to provide preventive measures and essential health education intended for both parents. This seemed to contribute to women's disincentive to complete all four recommended visits and men's interest in attending to ensure their partners' reception of care. However, the participants experienced a restriction of men's access during subsequent antenatal visits, which made men feel denied to their increased involvement during pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: 'near-miss' women and their partners face paradoxical barriers to actualise the recommended antenatal care visits. The well-intended initiative of male partner involvement counterproductively causes delays or excludes women whereas supportive men are turned away from further health consultations. Currently, the suboptimal quality of antenatal care misses the opportunity to provide health education for the expectant couple or to identify and address early signs of complications IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: these findings suggest a need for increased flexibility in the antenatal care recommendations to encourage women to attend care with or without their partner, and to create open health communication about women's and men's real needs within the context of their social situations. Supportive partners should not be denied involvement at any stage of pregnancy, but should be received only upon consent of the expectant mother.

Optimal performance fee and flow of funds in asset management contracts

This paper investigates the importance of ow of funds as an implicit incentive in the asset management industry. We build a two-period bi- nomial moral hazard model to explain the trade-o¤s between ow, per- formance and fees where e¤ort depends on the combination of implicit ( ow of funds) and explicit (performance fee) incentives. Two cases are considered. With full commitment, the investor s relevant trade-o¤ is to give up expected return in the second period vis-à-vis to induce e¤ort in the rst period. The more concerned the investor is with today s pay- o¤, the more willing he will be to give up expected return in the second period by penalizing negative excess return in the rst period. Without full commitment, the investor learns some symmetric and imperfect infor- mation about the ability of the manager to obtain positive excess return. In this case, observed returns reveal ability as well as e¤ort choices. We show that powerful implicit incentives may explain the ow-performance relationship with a numerical solution. Besides, risk aversion explains the complementarity between performance fee and ow of funds.

Avaliando questionários de risco e o comportamento do investidor sobre a ótica de behavioral finance

Tolerância ao risco é fundamental quando se tomam decisões financeiras. No entanto, a avaliação da tolerância ao risco tem se baseado ao longo dos anos em diferentes metodologias, tais como julgamentos heurísticos e a teoria da utilidade esperada que tem como base a hipótese dos mercados eficientes. Foi dentro desta ótica que este trabalho se desenvolveu. O objetivo é analisar três diferentes questionários de avaliação ao risco que são na prática amplamente utilizados por consultores financeiros. Foi assumido para isso que os investidores são considerados racionais, conhecem e ordenam de forma lógica suas preferências, buscam maximizar a "utilidade" de suas escolhas, e conseguem atribuir com precisão probabilidades aos eventos futuros, quando submetidos a escolhas que envolvam incertezas. No entanto, em uma análise preliminar dos questionários, estes poderiam estar utilizando conceitos de behavioral finance para avaliarem a tolerância ao risco, ao invés de utilizarem somente a metodologia tradicional da teoria da utilidade esperada. Dessa forma tornou-se necessário o estudo dos conceitos de behavioral finance. O primeiro capítulo então trata dos aspectos psicológicos do investidor, procurando entender como este se comporta e como este forma suas preferências. Apesar do estudo assumir racionalidade nas decisões, se a teoria de behavioral estiver correta e os investidores apresentarem desvios a racionalidade, como a teoria prospectiva afirma, o questionário poderia ser o veículo ideal para identificar tais desvios, sendo possível então educar e orientar o indivíduo em suas escolhas financeiras, afim de maximizá-las. O capitulo dois coloca a análise dos questionários inserida no contexto da teoria moderna de finanças, falando das escolhas de portfólio para investidores de longo prazo. O capítulo mostra de forma bem resumida e simplificada como o investidor maximiza a sua utilidade da riqueza. A idéia desse capítulo é entender como alguns julgamentos heurísticos assumidos na prática por consultores financeiros afetam as escolhas de portfólio e em quais condições esses julgamentos heurísticos são verdadeiros. Isso se torna importante pois os questionários mesclam medidas de risco com horizonte de investimentos do investidor. Estes questionários são utilizados para traçar uma política de investimentos completa para o investidor. Para cada perfil de risco encontrado a instituição traça um modelo de alocação de portfólio. O capítulo três trata da avaliação dos questionários em si tendo como base a teoria da utilidade esperada, os conceitos de behaviral finance e as lições tiradas das escolhas de portfólio para investidores de longo prazo.

The trade-off between incentives and endogenous risk

Standard models of moral hazard predict a negative relationship between risk and incentives, but the empirical work has not confirmed this prediction. In this paper, we propose a model with adverse selection followed by moral hazard, where effort and the degree of risk aversion are private information of an agent who can control the mean and the variance of profits. For a given contract, more risk-averse agents suppIy more effort in risk reduction. If the marginal utility of incentives decreases with risk aversion, more risk-averse agents prefer lower-incentive contractsj thus, in the optimal contract, incentives are positively correlated with endogenous risk. In contrast, if risk aversion is high enough, the possibility of reduction in risk makes the marginal utility of incentives increasing in risk aversion and, in this case, risk and incentives are negatively related.

Estimating the stochastic discount factor without a utility function

Using the Pricing Equation in a panel-data framework, we construct a novel consistent estimator of the stochastic discount factor (SDF) which relies on the fact that its logarithm is the serial-correlation ìcommon featureîin every asset return of the economy. Our estimator is a simple function of asset returns, does not depend on any parametric function representing preferences, is suitable for testing di§erent preference speciÖcations or investigating intertemporal substitution puzzles, and can be a basis to construct an estimator of the risk-free rate. For post-war data, our estimator is close to unity most of the time, yielding an average annual real discount rate of 2.46%. In formal testing, we cannot reject standard preference speciÖcations used in the literature and estimates of the relative risk-aversion coe¢ cient are between 1 and 2, and statistically equal to unity. Using our SDF estimator, we found little signs of the equity-premium puzzle for the U.S.

Estimando a aversão ao risco, a taxa de desconto intertemporal, e a substutibilidade intertemporal do consumo no Brasil usando três tipos de função utilidade

Nesse trabalho estima-se, usando o método generalizado dos momentos e dados brasileiros, os parâmetros estruturais do modelo CCAPM (consumption capital asset pricing model) a partir de três classes de funções utilidade distintas: função utilidade potência (CRRA), utilidade com hábito externo, e aversão ao desapontamento (Kreps-Porteus). Estes parâmetros estruturais estão associados à aversão ao risco, à elasticidade de substituição intertemporal no consumo e à taxa de desconto intertemporal da utilidade futura. Os resultados aqui obtidos são analisados e comparados com resultados anteriores para dados brasileiros e americanos. Adicionalmente, testa-se econometricamente todos os modelos estruturais estimados a partir do teste de restrições de sobre-identificação, para investigar, da forma mais abrangente possível, se há ou não equity premium puzzle para o Brasil. Os resultados surpreendem, dado que, em raríssimas ocasiões, se rejeita as restrições implícitas nesses modelos. Logo, conclui-se que não há equity premium puzzle para o Brasil.

Laws of large numbers for non-additive probabilities

We apply the concept of exchangeable random variables to the case of non-additive robability distributions exhibiting ncertainty aversion, and in the lass generated bya convex core convex non-additive probabilities, ith a convex core). We are able to rove two versions of the law of arge numbers (de Finetti's heorems). By making use of two efinitions. of independence we rove two versions of the strong law f large numbers. It turns out that e cannot assure the convergence of he sample averages to a constant. e then modal the case there is a true" probability distribution ehind the successive realizations of the uncertain random variable. In this case convergence occurs. This result is important because it renders true the intuition that it is possible "to learn" the "true" additive distribution behind an uncertain event if one repeatedly observes it (a sufficiently large number of times). We also provide a conjecture regarding the "Iearning" (or updating) process above, and prove a partia I result for the case of Dempster-Shafer updating rule and binomial trials.

Non-monotone insurance contracts and their empirical consequences

The goal of this paper is to show the possibility of a non-monotone relation between coverage ans risk which has been considered in the literature of insurance models since the work of Rothschild and Stiglitz (1976). We present an insurance model where the insured agents have heterogeneity in risk aversion and in lenience (a prevention cost parameter). Risk aversion is described by a continuous parameter which is correlated with lenience and for the sake of simplicity, we assume perfect correlation. In the case of positive correlation, the more risk averse agent has higher cosr of prevention leading to a higher demand for coverage. Equivalently, the single crossing property (SCP) is valid and iplies a positive correlation between overage and risk in equilibrium. On the other hand, if the correlation between risk aversion and lenience is negative, not only may the SCP be broken, but also the monotonocity of contracts, i.e., the prediction that high (low) risk averse types choose full (partial) insurance. In both cases riskiness is monotonic in risk aversion, but in the last case there are some coverage levels associated with two different risks (low and high), which implies that the ex-ante (with respect to the risk aversion distribution) correlation between coverage and riskiness may have every sign (even though the ex-post correlation is always positive). Moreover, using another instrument (a proxy for riskiness), we give a testable implication to desentangle single crossing ans non single croosing under an ex-post zero correlation result: the monotonicity of coverage as a function os riskiness. Since by controlling for risk aversion (no asymmetric information), coverage is monotone function of riskiness, this also fives a test for asymmetric information. Finally, we relate this theoretical results to empirical tests in the recent literature, specially the Dionne, Gouruéroux and Vanasse (2001) work. In particular, they found an empirical evidence that seems to be compatible with asymmetric information and non single crossing in our framework. More generally, we build a hidden information model showing how omitted variables (asymmetric information) can bias the sign of the correlation of equilibrium variables conditioning on all observable variables. We show that this may be the case when the omitted variables have a non-monotonic relation with the observable ones. Moreover, because this non-dimensional does not capture this deature. Hence, our main results is to point out the importance of the SPC in testing predictions of the hidden information models.

Oligopolistic competition under knightian uncertainty

This artic/e applies a theorem of Nash equilibrium under uncertainty (Dow & Werlang, 1994) to the classic Coumot model of oligopolistic competition. It shows, in particular, how one can map all Coumot equilibrium (which includes the monopoly and the null solutions) with only a function of uncertainty aversion coefficients of producers. The effect of variations in these parameters over the equilibrium quantities are studied, also assuming exogenous increases in the number of matching firms in the game. The Cournot solutions under uncertainty are compared with the monopolistic one. It shows principally that there is an uncertainty aversion level in the industry such that every aversion coefficient beyond it induces firms to produce an aggregate output smaller than the monopoly output. At the end of the artic/e equilibrium solutions are specialized for Linear Demand and for Coumot duopoly. Equilibrium analysis in the symmetric case allows to identify the uncertainty aversion coefficient for the whole industry as a proportional lack of information cost which would be conveyed by market price in the perfect competition case (Lerner Index).

Nash equilibrium under knightian uncertainty: breaking down backward induction (extensively revised version)

We define Nash equilibrium for two-person normal form games in the presence of uncertainty, in the sense of Knight(1921). We use the fonna1iution of uncertainty due to Schmeidler and Gilboa. We show tbat there exist Nash equilibria for any degree of uncertainty, as measured by the uncertainty aversion (Dow anel Wer1ang(l992a». We show by example tbat prudent behaviour (maxmin) can be obtained as an outcome even when it is not rationaliuble in the usual sense. Next, we break down backward industion in the twice repeated prisoner's dilemma. We link these results with those on cooperation in the finitely repeated prisoner's dilemma obtained by Kreps-Milgrom-Roberts-Wdson(1982), and withthe 1iterature on epistemological conditions underlying Nash equilibrium. The knowledge notion implicit in this mode1 of equilibrium does not display logical omniscience.

Ensaios sobre o fator estocástico de descontos

Este trabalho propõe maneiras alternativas para a estimação consistente de uma medida abstrata, crucial para o estudo de decisões intertemporais, o qual é central a grande parte dos estudos em macroeconomia e finanças: o Fator Estocástico de Descontos (SDF, sigla em Inglês). Pelo emprego da Equação de Apreçamento constrói-se um inédito estimador consistente do SDF que depende do fato de que seu logaritmo é comum a todos os ativos de uma economia. O estimador resultante é muito simples de se calcular, não depende de fortes hipóteses econômicas, é adequado ao teste de diversas especificações de preferência e para a investigação de paradoxos de substituição intertemporal, e pode ser usado como base para a construção de um estimador para a taxa livre de risco. Alternativas para a estratégia de identificação são aplicadas e um paralelo entre elas e estratégias de outras metodologias é traçado. Adicionando estrutura ao ambiente inicial, são apresentadas duas situações onde a distribuição assintótica pode ser derivada. Finalmente, as metodologias propostas são aplicadas a conjuntos de dados dos EUA e do Brasil. Especificações de preferência usualmente empregadas na literatura, bem como uma classe de preferências dependentes do estado, são testadas. Os resultados são particularmente interessantes para a economia americana. A aplicação de teste formais não rejeita especificações de preferências comuns na literatura e estimativas para o coeficiente relativo de aversão ao risco se encontram entre 1 e 2, e são estatisticamente indistinguíveis de 1. Adicionalmente, para a classe de preferência s dependentes do estado, trajetórias altamente dinâmicas são estimadas para a tal coeficiente, as trajetórias são confinadas ao intervalo [1,15, 2,05] e se rejeita a hipótese de uma trajetória constante.