A Data mining approach to indirect inference

Consider a model with parameter phi, and an auxiliary model with parameter theta. Let phi be a randomly sampled from a given density over the known parameter space. Monte Carlo methods can be used to draw simulated data and compute the corresponding estimate of theta, say theta_tilde. A large set of tuples (phi, theta_tilde) can be generated in this manner. Nonparametric methods may be use to fit the function E(phi|theta_tilde=a), using these tuples. It is proposed to estimate phi using the fitted E(phi|theta_tilde=theta_hat), where theta_hat is the auxiliary estimate, using the real sample data. This is a consistent and asymptotically normally distributed estimator, under certain assumptions. Monte Carlo results for dynamic panel data and vector autoregressions show that this estimator can have very attractive small sample properties. Confidence intervals can be constructed using the quantiles of the phi for which theta_tilde is close to theta_hat. Such confidence intervals are found to have very accurate coverage.

Malaria seroepidemiology: comparison between indirect fluorescent antibody test and enzyme immunoassay using bloodspot eluates

Blood sampling on filter paper is a current practice seroepidemiological studies by indirect fluorescent antibody test (IFAT). There is, however, scant comparative information about the use of bloodspot eluates for detection of malarial IgG antibodies simultaneously by IFAT and enzyme immunoassay (ELISA). Here we report data obtained by both serological methods done on 219 bloodspot eluate samples collected in a rural community in Brazilian Amazon Basin (Alto Paraíso, Ariquemes municipality) where malaria is endemic. Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax thick smear antigens were used in the IFAT; a detergent-soluble P. falciparum antigen was prepared for ELISA. Substantial agreement of results (Kappa coefficient k = 0.686) was observed when P. falciparum antigen was used in both tests, and IFAT titers were found to be strongly correlated ELISA antibody units (Spearman correlation coeficient rs = 0.818, p < 0.0001). Only moderate agreement (k = 0.467) between IFAT with P. vivax antigen and ELISA with P. falciparum antigen was observed. Spearman correlation coefficient value between quantitative results (IFAT titers and ELISA antibody units) in this case was numerically lowe (rs = 0.540, p < 0.0001). Our results suggest that, with P. falciparum antigen, both IFAT and ELISA performed on bloodspot eluates are equivalent for seropidemiological purposes.

Differential allocation and deployment of direct and indirect defences by Vicia sepium along elevation gradients

Dissecting drivers of plant defence investment remains central for understanding the assemblage of communities across different habitats. There is increasing evidence that direct defence strategies against herbivores, including secondary metabolites production, differ along ecological gradients in response to variation in biotic and abiotic conditions. In contrast, intraspecific variation in indirect defences remains unexplored. Here, we investigated variation in herbivory rate, resistance to herbivores, and indirect defences in ant-attracting Vicia species along the elevation gradient of the Alps. Specifically, we compared volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and ant attraction in high and low elevation ecotypes. Consistent with adaptation to the lower herbivory conditions that we detected at higher elevations in the field, high elevation plants were visited by fewer ants and were more susceptible to herbivore attack. In parallel, constitutive volatile organic compound production and subsequent ant attraction were lower in the high elevation ecotypes. We observed an elevation-driven trade-off between constitutive and inducible production of VOCs and ant attraction along the environmental cline. At higher elevations, inducible defences increased, while constitutive defence decreased, suggesting that the high elevation ecotypes compensate for lower indirect constitutive defences only after herbivore attack. Synthesis. Overall, direct and indirect defences of plants vary along elevation gradients. Our findings show that plant allocation to defences are subject to trade-offs depending on local conditions, and point to a feedback mechanism linking local herbivore pressure, predator abundance and the defence investment of plants.

Lack of metabolic and behavioral adaptations in rural Gambian men with low body mass index.

Energy expenditure was measured by means of a respiratory chamber in two groups of adult rural Gambian men. The first group (n = 29) had a low body mass index (BMI; in kg/m2) < 18.5), whereas the control group (n = 29) had a higher BMI (> 22). This study shows that the energy expenditure of Gambian men with low BMI is not different from that of Gambian men with normal BMI when the results are normalized for fat-free mass or for weight by analysis of covariance. In Gambian men the nutritional status thus does not seem to affect energy metabolism notably. No differences in respiratory quotient, diet-induced thermogenesis, net work efficiency, spontaneous physical activity, heart rate, or urinary catecholamine excretion were observed between the two groups. It is, however, interesting to note that the basal metabolic rate of Gambian men, regardless of their nutritional status, is approximately 10% (range 4-12% depending on the reference value used) lower than that predicted for individuals living in industrialized countries.

Thermogenic effect of amrinone in healthy men.

OBJECTIVES: The thermogenic effect of amrinone is unknown and its utilization in patients with severe cardiac failure could potentially increase oxygen requirements and therefore aggravate oxygen debt. Consequently, the present study was undertaken to assess the thermogenic response to amrinone at three different plasma concentrations under controlled conditions and to analyze amrinone's effects on various biochemical variables. DESIGN: A prospective, unblinded, controlled study. The initial control period was followed by three sequential, experimental treatments. SUBJECTS: Ten young, healthy, male volunteers with normal body weight. INTERVENTIONS: Three experimental periods. Amrinone was administered intravenously in progressive doses: a) 0.5 mg/kg followed by 5 micrograms/kg/min; b) 0.5 mg/kg followed by 10 micrograms/kg/min; and c) 1.0 mg/kg followed by 10 micrograms/kg/min. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Oxygen consumption (VO2) and CO2 production were continuously measured by means of a computerized indirect calorimeter. At the highest dose, amrinone produced a slight and significant (p < .01) increase in VO2 and in resting metabolic rate (+4.5% and +3.7%, respectively), while no change in CO2 production or in respiratory quotient occurred throughout the study. At the medium and high doses, amrinone increased plasma free fatty acid concentrations by 38% and 53%, respectively (p < .05). No variation in plasma glucose, lactate, insulin, norepinephrine, or epinephrine concentrations was observed during the study. CONCLUSIONS: Amrinone administered intravenously at therapeutic doses has minimal thermogenic and metabolic effects in humans without cardiac failure.

Regional value added in Italy over the long run (1891-2001): linking indirect estimates with official figures, and implications

This paper presents value added estimates for the Italian regions, in benchmark years from 1891 until 1951, which are linked to those from official figures available from 1971 in order to offer a long-term picture. Sources and methodology are documented and discussed, whilst regional activity rates and productivity are also presented and compared. Thus some questions are briefly reconsidered: the origins and extent of the north-south divide, the role of migration and regional policy in shaping the pattern of regional inequality, the importance of social capital, and the positioning of Italy in the international debate on regional convergence, where it stands out for the long run persistence of its disparities.

Daily physical activity assessment: what is the importance of upper limb movements vs whole body movements?

OBJECTIVE: The movement of the upper limbs (eg fidgeting-like activities) is a meaningful component of nonexercise activity thermogenesis (NEAT). This study examined the relationship between upper limb movements and whole body trunk movements, by simultaneously measuring energy expenditure during the course of the day. DESIGN: A cross-sectional study consisting of 88 subjects with a wide range in body mass index (17.3-32.5 kg/m(2)). The energy expenditure over a 24-h period was measured in a large respiratory chamber. The body movements were assessed by two uniaxial-accelerometers during daytime, one on the waist and the other on the dominant arm. The accelerometry scores from level 0 (=immobile) up to level 9 (=maximal intensity) were recorded. The activities of subjects were classified into eight categories: walking at two speeds on a horizontal treadmill (A & B), ambling (C), self-care tasks (D), desk work (E), meals (F), reading (G), watching TV (H). RESULTS: There was a significant relationship between the accelerometry scores from the waist (ACwaist) and that from the wrist (ACwrist) over the daytime period (R(2)=0.64; P<0.001). The ACwrist was systematically higher than the ACwaist during sedentary activities, whereas it was the reverse for walking activities. ACwrist to ACwaist ratio of activities E-H were above 1.0 and for walking activities (A-C) were below 1.0. A multiple regression analysis for predicting daytime energy expenditure revealed that the explained variance improved by 2% only when the ACwrist was added as a second predictor in addition to the ACwaist. This indicates that the effect of the ACwrist for predicting energy expenditure was of limited importance in our conditions of measurement. CONCLUSIONS: The acceleration of the upper limbs which includes fidgeting is more elevated than that of the whole body for sitting/lying down activities. However, their contribution to energy expenditure is lower than whole body trunk movements, thus indicating that the weight-bearing locomotion activities may be a key component of NEAT. However, its contribution may depend on the total duration of the upper limb movements during the course of the day.

Indirect likelihood inference

Given a sample from a fully specified parametric model, let Zn be a given finite-dimensional statistic - for example, an initial estimator or a set of sample moments. We propose to (re-)estimate the parameters of the model by maximizing the likelihood of Zn. We call this the maximum indirect likelihood (MIL) estimator. We also propose a computationally tractable Bayesian version of the estimator which we refer to as a Bayesian Indirect Likelihood (BIL) estimator. In most cases, the density of the statistic will be of unknown form, and we develop simulated versions of the MIL and BIL estimators. We show that the indirect likelihood estimators are consistent and asymptotically normally distributed, with the same asymptotic variance as that of the corresponding efficient two-step GMM estimator based on the same statistic. However, our likelihood-based estimators, by taking into account the full finite-sample distribution of the statistic, are higher order efficient relative to GMM-type estimators. Furthermore, in many cases they enjoy a bias reduction property similar to that of the indirect inference estimator. Monte Carlo results for a number of applications including dynamic and nonlinear panel data models, a structural auction model and two DSGE models show that the proposed estimators indeed have attractive finite sample properties.

Seroprevalence of Toxoplasma gondii infection in goats by the indirect haemagglutination, immunofluorescence and immunoenzymatic tests in the region of Uberlândia, Brazil

A comparative study of the indirect haemagglutination (IHA), immunofluorescence (IFAT) and immunoenzymatic (ELISA) tests was carried out to determine the prevalence of Toxoplasma gondii antibodies in goats. One hundred seventy-four serum samples were obtained from four goat herds from the region of Uberlândia, State of Minas Gerais. The distribution of the animals, according to their origin, was as follow: 71 from herd I; 39 from herd II; 37 from herd III; and 27 from herd IV. Serum samples were analyzed by IHA, IFAT and ELISA, considering the reactivity of the serum samples at dilution ≥ 1:64 as cut off titer for the three tests. A global seroprevalence of 18.4% was observed, with significantly higher positivity rate in the herd II (66.7%) and older animals (> 36 months). A high and significant positive correlation was found between the titers obtained by the IHA versus IFAT, IHA versus ELISA, and ELISA versus IFAT. Therefore, it can be concluded that the three analyzed tests have shown to be highly concordant and appropriate for epidemiological surveys of Toxoplasma infection in goats. Although the seroprevalence of T. gondii infection in goats is relatively low in this region as compared to other regions of the country, adequate management might be useful and essential to control the infection in the goat herds.

Straightening out the concept of direct and indirect input requirements

Gim & Kim (1998) proposed a generalization of Jeong (1982, 1984) reinterpretation of the Hawkins-Simon condition for macroeconomic stability to off-diagonal matrix elements. This generalization is conceptually relevant for it offers a complementary view of interindustry linkages beyond final or net output influence. The extension is completely similar to the 'total flow' idea introduced by Szyrmer (1992) or the 'output-to-output' multiplier of Miller & Blair (2009). However the practical implementation of Gim & Kim is actually faulty since it confuses the appropriate order of output normalization. We provide a new and elementary solution for the correct formalization using standard interindustry accounting concepts.

Evaluation of indirect susceptibility testing of Mycobacterium tuberculosis to the first- and second-line, and alternative drugs by the newer MB/BacT system

In order to evaluate the Organon Teknika MB/BacT system used for testing indirect susceptibility to the alternative drugs ofloxacin (OFLO), amikacin (AMI), and rifabutin (RIF), and to the usual drugs of standard treatment regimes such as rifampin (RMP), isoniazid (INH), pyrazinamide (PZA), streptomycin (SM), ethambutol (EMB), and ethionamide (ETH), cultures of clinical specimens from 117 patients with pulmonary tuberculosis under multidrug-resistant investigation, admitted sequentially for examination from 2001 to 2002, were studied. Fifty of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis cultures were inoculated into the gold-standard BACTEC 460 TB (Becton Dickinson) for studying resistance to AMI, RIF, and OFLO, and the remaining 67 were inoculated into Lowenstein Jensen (LJ) medium (the gold standard currently used in Brazil) for studying resistance to RMP, INH, PZA, SM, EMB, and ETH. We observed 100% sensitivity for AMI (80.8-100), RIF (80.8-100), and OFLO (78.1-100); and 100% specificity for AMI (85.4-100), RIF (85.4-100), and OFLO (86.7-100) compared to the BACTEC system. Comparing the results obtained in LJ we observed 100% sensitivity for RMP (80-100), followed by INH - 95% (81.8-99.1), EMB - 94.7% (71.9-99.7), and 100% specificity for all drugs tested except for PZA - 98.3 (89.5-99.9) at 95% confidence interval. The results showed a high level of accuracy and demonstrated that the fully automated, non-radiometric MB/BacT system is indicated for routine use in susceptibility testing in public health laboratories.

A contribution to the diagnosis of Capillaria hepatica infection by indirect immunofluorescence test

A highly specific pattern of immunofluorescence was noted when sera from Capillaria hepatica-infected rats were tested against the homologous worms and eggs present either in paraffin or cryostat sections from mouse liver. The pattern was represented by a combined apple green fluorescence of the internal contents of worms and eggs, which persisted in serum-dilutions of 1:400 up to 1:1600. Unequivocal fluorescent pattern was observed from 15 days up to 3 months following inoculation of rats with embryonated C. hepatica eggs and such result was confirmed by the ELISA. After the 4th month of infection, the indirect immunofluorescence test turned negative, probably revealing the extinction of parasitism, however the ELISA was contradictory, disclosing high levels of antibodies in this period . The IIF was also negative when control normal rat sera and sera from rats administered by gavage with immature C. hepatica eggs (spurious infection), or for reactions made against Schistosoma mansoni eggs, although a weakly positive pattern occurred with Fasciola hepatica eggs. The indirect immunofluorescence test may be recommended for use with human sera to detect early C. hepatica infection in special clinical instances and in epidemiological surveys, since it is a simple, inexpensive, and reliable test, presenting excellent sensitivity and specificity. Although the diagnosis is positive only during early infection, this is the period when the symptoms are usually more severe and the need for differential diagnosis is greater.

Rabies neutralizing antibody detection by indirect immunperoxidase serum neutralization assay performed on chicken embryo related cell line

The aim of this study was to evaluate the indirect immunoperoxidase virus neutralization (IPVN) and mouse neutralization test (MNT) to detect antibodies against rabies virus from vaccinated dogs and cattle. The IPVN was set up for the ability to measure 0.5 International Units/ml (IU) of antibody required by the World Health Organization and the Office International des Epizooties as the minimum response for proof of rabies immunization. IPVN was developed and standardized in chicken embryo related (CER) cell line when 141 dog and 110 cattle sera were applied by serial five-fold dilutions (1:5, 1:25, 1:125) as well as the positive and negative reference controls, all added in four adjacent wells, of 96-well microplates. A 50 µl amount of CVS32 strain dilution containing 50-200 TCID50/ml was mixed to each serum dilution, and after 90 min 50 µl of 3 x 10(5) cells/mlcell suspension added to each well. After five days of incubation, the monolayers were fixed and the IPVN test performed. The correlation coefficient between the MNT and IPVN performed in CER cells was r = 0.9949 for dog sera (n = 100) and r = 0.9307 for cattle sera (n = 99), as well as good specificity (94.7%), sensitivity (87.5%), and agreement (96.6%) were also obtained. IPVN technique can adequately identify vaccinated and unvaccinated animals, even from low-responding vaccinated animals, with the advantage of low cost and faster then MNT standard test.