Elicitator : an expert elicitation tool for regression in ecology

Expert elicitation is the process of retrieving and quantifying expert knowledge in a particular domain. Such information is of particular value when the empirical data is expensive, limited, or unreliable. This paper describes a new software tool, called Elicitator, which assists in quantifying expert knowledge in a form suitable for use as a prior model in Bayesian regression. Potential environmental domains for applying this elicitation tool include habitat modeling, assessing detectability or eradication, ecological condition assessments, risk analysis, and quantifying inputs to complex models of ecological processes. The tool has been developed to be user-friendly, extensible, and facilitate consistent and repeatable elicitation of expert knowledge across these various domains. We demonstrate its application to elicitation for logistic regression in a geographically based ecological context. The underlying statistical methodology is also novel, utilizing an indirect elicitation approach to target expert knowledge on a case-by-case basis. For several elicitation sites (or cases), experts are asked simply to quantify their estimated ecological response (e.g. probability of presence), and its range of plausible values, after inspecting (habitat) covariates via GIS.

Malnutrition and pressure ulcer risk in adults in Australian health care facilities

Aims To determine the effect of nutritional status on the presence and severity of pressure ulcers in statewide? public healthcare facilities, in Queensland, Australia. Research Methods A multicentre, cross sectional audit of nutritional status of a convenience sample of subjects was carried out as part of a large audit of pressure ulcers in a sample of state based public healthcare facilities in 2002 and 2003. Dietitians in 20 hospitals and six residential aged care facilities conducted single day nutritional status audits of 2208 acute and 839 aged care subjects using the Subjective Global Assessment. The effect of nutritional status on the presence, highest stage and number of pressure ulcers was determined by logistic regression in a model controlling for age, gender, medical specialty and facility location. The potential clustering effect of facility was accounted for in the model using an analysis of correlated data approach. Results Subjects with malnutrition had an adjusted odds risk of 2.6 (95% CI 1.8-3.5, p<0.001) of having a pressure ulcer in acute facilities and 2.0 (95% CI 1.5-2.7, p<0.001) for residential aged care facilities. There was also increased odds risk of having a pressure ulcer, having a higher stage pressure ulcer and a higher number of pressure ulcers with increased severity of malnutrition. Conclusion Malnutrition was associated with at least twice the odds risk of having a pressure ulcer of in public healthcare facilities in Queensland. Action must be taken to identify, prevent and treat malnutrition, especially in patients at risk of pressure ulcer.

Recruiting local public relations professionals for global relations practice : a comparative analysis between Australian and Indian public relations recruitment advertisements

The aim of this exploratory study was to gain an insight into Asian and Western public relations practices by investigating them through job advertisements and thus reflecting on what organisations expect from the public relations professionals. Grunig's (1984) four models of public relations and the concept of relationships management were used as the foundation for this study. Australia was used to represent the Western region and India was used to represent the Asian region. Sample sets of public relations recruitment advertisements from both countries were examined against Grunig's one-way communication, two-way communication and relationship management attributes.

Comparison of three expert elicitation methods for logistic regression on predicting the presence of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby petrogale penicillata

Numerous expert elicitation methods have been suggested for generalised linear models (GLMs). This paper compares three relatively new approaches to eliciting expert knowledge in a form suitable for Bayesian logistic regression. These methods were trialled on two experts in order to model the habitat suitability of the threatened Australian brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata). The first elicitation approach is a geographically assisted indirect predictive method with a geographic information system (GIS) interface. The second approach is a predictive indirect method which uses an interactive graphical tool. The third method uses a questionnaire to elicit expert knowledge directly about the impact of a habitat variable on the response. Two variables (slope and aspect) are used to examine prior and posterior distributions of the three methods. The results indicate that there are some similarities and dissimilarities between the expert informed priors of the two experts formulated from the different approaches. The choice of elicitation method depends on the statistical knowledge of the expert, their mapping skills, time constraints, accessibility to experts and funding available. This trial reveals that expert knowledge can be important when modelling rare event data, such as threatened species, because experts can provide additional information that may not be represented in the dataset. However care must be taken with the way in which this information is elicited and formulated.

Using a current source to improve efficiency of a plasma system

This paper presents the possibility of utilizing a current source topology instead of a voltage source as an efficient, flexible and reliable power supply for plasma applications. A buck-boost converter with a current controller has been used to transfer energy from an inductor to a plasma system. A control strategy has also been designed to satisfy all the desired purposes. The main concept behind this topology is to provide high dv/dt regardless of the switching speed of a power switch and to control the current level to properly transfer adequate energy to various plasma applications.

Employee work motivation and discretionary work effort

The focus of this thesis is discretionary work effort, that is, work effort that is voluntary, is above and beyond what is minimally required or normally expected to avoid reprimand or dismissal, and is organisationally functional. Discretionary work effort is an important construct because it is known to affect individual performance as well as organisational efficiency and effectiveness. To optimise organisational performance and ensure their long term competitiveness and sustainability, firms need to be able to induce their employees to work at or near their peak level. To work at or near their peak level, individuals must be willing to supply discretionary work effort. Thus, managers need to understand the determinants of discretionary work effort. Nonetheless, despite many years of scholarly investigation across multiple disciplines, considerable debate still exists concerning why some individuals supply only minimal work effort whilst others expend effort well above and beyond what is minimally required of them (Le. they supply discretionary work effort). Even though it is well recognised that discretionary work effort is important for promoting organisational performance and effectiveness, many authors claim that too little is being done by managers to increase the discretionary work effort of their employees. In this research, I have adopted a multi-disciplinary approach towards investigating the role of monetary and non-monetary work environment characteristics in determining discretionary work effort. My central research questions were "What non-monetary work environment characteristics do employees perceive as perks (perquisites) and irks (irksome work environment characteristics)?" and "How do perks, irks and monetary rewards relate to an employee's level of discretionary work effort?" My research took a unique approach in addressing these research questions. By bringing together the economics and organisational behaviour (OB) literatures, I identified problems with the current definition and conceptualisations of the discretionary work effort construct. I then developed and empirically tested a more concise and theoretically-based definition and conceptualisation of this construct. In doing so, I disaggregated discretionary work effort to include three facets - time, intensity and direction - and empirically assessed if different classes of work environment characteristics have a differential pattern of relationships with these facets. This analysis involved a new application of a multi-disciplinary framework of human behaviour as a tool for classifying work environment characteristics and the facets of discretionary work effort. To test my model of discretionary work effort, I used a public sector context in which there has been limited systematic empirical research into work motivation. The program of research undertaken involved three separate but interrelated studies using mixed methods. Data on perks, irks, monetary rewards and discretionary work effort were gathered from employees in 12 organisations in the local government sector in Western Australia. Non-monetary work environment characteristics that should be associated with discretionary work effort were initially identified through a review of the literature. Then, a qualitative study explored what work behaviours public sector employees perceive as discretionary and what perks and irks were associated with high and low levels of discretionary work effort. Next, a quantitative study developed measures of these perks and irks. A Q-sorttype procedure and exploratory factor analysis were used to develop the perks and irks measures. Finally, a second quantitative study tested the relationships amongst perks, irks, monetary rewards and discretionary work effort. Confirmatory factor analysis was firstly used to confirm the factor structure of the measurement models. Correlation analysis, regression analysis and effect-size correlation analysis were used to test the hypothesised relationships in the proposed model of discretionary work effort. The findings confirmed five hypothesised non-monetary work environment characteristics as common perks and two of three hypothesised non-monetary work environment characteristics as common irks. Importantly, they showed that perks, irks and monetary rewards are differentially related to the different facets of discretionary work effort. The convergent and discriminant validities of the perks and irks constructs as well as the time, intensity and direction facets of discretionary work effort were generally confirmed by the research findings. This research advances the literature in several ways: (i) it draws on the Economics and OB literatures to redefine and reconceptualise the discretionary work effort construct to provide greater definitional clarity and a more complete conceptualisation of this important construct; (ii) it builds on prior research to create a more comprehensive set of perks and irks for which measures are developed; (iii) it develops and empirically tests a new motivational model of discretionary work effort that enhances our understanding of the nature and functioning of perks and irks and advances our ability to predict discretionary work effort; and (iv) it fills a substantial gap in the literature on public sector work motivation by revealing what work behaviours public sector employees perceive as discretionary and what work environment characteristics are associated with their supply of discretionary work effort. Importantly, by disaggregating discretionary work effort this research provides greater detail on how perks, irks and monetary rewards are related to the different facets of discretionary work effort. Thus, from a theoretical perspective this research also demonstrates the conceptual meaningfulness and empirical utility of investigating the different facets of discretionary work effort separately. From a practical perspective, identifying work environment factors that are associated with discretionary work effort enhances managers' capacity to tap this valuable resource. This research indicates that to maximise the potential of their human resources, managers need to address perks, irks and monetary rewards. It suggests three different mechanisms through which managers might influence discretionary work effort and points to the importance of training for both managers and non-managers in cultivating positive interpersonal relationships.

Study of ICT adoption for building project management in the Indian construction industry

Building project management requires effective coordination and collaboration between multiple project members. It can be achieved through real time communication flow between all. In present scenario, it can be achieved through adoption of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT). Construction industry primarily comprises small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Also, ICT adoption has been slow in the industry.---------- Research is required to assess the factors that affect ICT adoption at the three levels of industry, organization and people, with focus on SMEs. This paper discusses a component of the research undertaken to study these factors and issues in the context of Indian construction industry. A questionnaire survey was conducted and through quantitative data analysis the extent of adoption of formal Project Management processes, ICT adoption for these processes and factors including perception based factors affecting ICT adoption were studied. Results of data analysis includes identification of issues that require action at the three study levels.---------- The results can be generalized for other countries with due considerations, specifically for countries where the construction industry is similar to Indian construction industry in terms of working methodologies or for large countries.

Bootstrap approaches for estimation and confidence intervals of long term memory processes

In this work, we investigate an alternative bootstrap approach based on a result of Ramsey [F.L. Ramsey, Characterization of the partial autocorrelation function, Ann. Statist. 2 (1974), pp. 1296-1301] and on the Durbin-Levinson algorithm to obtain a surrogate series from linear Gaussian processes with long range dependence. We compare this bootstrap method with other existing procedures in a wide Monte Carlo experiment by estimating, parametrically and semi-parametrically, the memory parameter d. We consider Gaussian and non-Gaussian processes to prove the robustness of the method to deviations from normality. The approach is also useful to estimate confidence intervals for the memory parameter d by improving the coverage level of the interval.

The 4th International Network of Indigenous Health Knowledge and Development Conference

The International Network of Indigenous Health Knowledge and Development (INIHKD) Conference was held from Monday 24 May to Friday 28 May 2010 at Kiana Lodge, Port Madison Indian Reservation, Suquamish Nation, Washington State, United States of America. The overall theme for the 4th Biennial Conference was ‘Knowing Our Roots: Indigenous Medicines, Health Knowledges and Best Practices’. This article details the experience of participants who were at the INIHKD Conference. It concludes with an encouragement to people to attend the 5th INIHKD Conference in Australia in 2012.

A quasi-stationary approach to drying kinetics of different shaped food particulates in a heat pump assisted by fluid bed dryer

Experiments were undertaken to study drying kinetics of different shaped moist food particulates during heat pump assisted fluidised bed drying. Three particular geometrical shapes of parallelepiped, cylindrical and spheres were selected from potatoes (aspect ratio = 1:1, 2:1, 3:1), cut beans (length: diameter = 1:1, 2:1, 3:1) and peas respectively. A batch fluidised bed dryer connected to a heat pump system was used for the experimentation. A Heat pump and fluid bed combination was used to increase overall energy efficiency and achieve higher drying rates. Drying kinetics, were evaluated with non-dimensional moisture at three different drying temperatures of 30, 40 and 50o C. Due to complex hydrodynamics of the fluidised beds, drying kinetics are dryer or material specific. Numerous mathematical models can be used to calculate drying kinetics ranging from analytical models with simplified assumptions to empirical models built by regression using experimental data. Empirical models are commonly used for various food materials due to their simpler approach. However problems in accuracy, limits the applications of empirical models. Some limitations of empirical models could be reduced by using semi-empirical models based on heat and mass transfer of the drying operation. One such method is the quasi-stationary approach. In this study, a modified quasi-stationary approach was used to model drying kinetics of the cylindrical food particles at three drying temperatures.

Impacts of vessel capacity reduction programs on the efficiency in fisheries. The case of Australia's multispecies in northern prawn fishery

Capacity reduction programs in the form of buybacks or decommissioning programs have had relatively widespread application in fisheries in the US, Europe and Australia. A common criticism of such programs is that they remove the least efficient vessels first, resulting in an increase in average efficiency of the remaining fleet. The effective fishing power of the fleet, therefore, does not decrease in proportion to the number of vessels removed. Further, reduced crowding may increase efficiency of the remaining vessels. In this paper, the effects of a buyback program on average technical efficiency in Australia’s Northern Prawn Fishery are examined using a multi-output distance function approach with an explicit inefficiency model. The results indicate that average efficiency of the remaining vessels was greater than that of the removed vessels, and that average efficiency of remaining vessels also increased as a result of reduced crowding.