Inflation bias: an appraisal

This short paper offers a brief appraisal of the conventional inflation bias and Cukierman's new inflation bias. It may also be seen that a lack of equilibrium in the balance of payments represents another reason for the emergence of the inflationary bias in an economy.

Parameter estimation for Chaotic or Stochastic Dynamics

Since its discovery, chaos has been a very interesting and challenging topic of research. Many great minds spent their entire lives trying to give some rules to it. Nowadays, thanks to the research of last century and the advent of computers, it is possible to predict chaotic phenomena of nature for a certain limited amount of time. The aim of this study is to present a recently discovered method for the parameter estimation of the chaotic dynamical system models via the correlation integral likelihood, and give some hints for a more optimized use of it, together with a possible application to the industry. The main part of our study concerned two chaotic attractors whose general behaviour is diff erent, in order to capture eventual di fferences in the results. In the various simulations that we performed, the initial conditions have been changed in a quite exhaustive way. The results obtained show that, under certain conditions, this method works very well in all the case. In particular, it came out that the most important aspect is to be very careful while creating the training set and the empirical likelihood, since a lack of information in this part of the procedure leads to low quality results.

Gender bias in the Trends in Mathematics and Science Study 2003 (TIMMS) for Canadian students /

This study is a secondary data analysis of the Trends in Mathematics and Science Study 2003 (TIMSS) to determine if there is a gender bias, unbalanced number of items suited to the cognitive skill of one gender, and to compare performance by location. Results of the Grade 8, math portion of the test were examined. Items were coded as verbal, spatial, verbal /spatial or neither and as conventional or unconventional. A Kruskal- Wallis was completed for each category, comparing performance of students from Ontario, Quebec, and Singapore. A Factor Analysis was completed to determine if there were item categories with similar characteristics. Gender differences favouring males were found in the verbal conventional category for Canadian students and in the spatial conventional category for students in Quebec. The greatest differences were by location, as students in Singapore outperformed students from Canada in all areas except for the spatial unconventional category. Finally, whether an item is conventional or unconventional is more important than whether the item is verbal or spatial. Results show the importance of fair assessment for the genders in both the classroom and on standardized tests.

Perceptions of intergroup bias : the roles of social projection and meta-stereotypes

Underlying intergroup perceptions include processes of social projection (perceiving personal traitslbeliefs in others, see Krueger 1998) and meta-stereotyping (thinking about other groups' perceptions of one's own group, see Vorauer et aI., 1998). Two studies were conducted to investigate social projection and meta-stereotypes in the domain of White-Black racial relations. Study 1, a correlational study, examined the social projection of prejudice and 'prejudiced' meta-stereotypes among Whites. Results revealed that (a) Whites socially projected their intergroup attitudes onto other Whites (and Blacks) [i.e., Whites higher in prejudice against Blacks believed a large percentage of Whites (Blacks) are prejudiced against Blacks (Whites), whereas Whites low in prejudice believed a smaller percentage of Whites (Blacks) are prejudiced]; (b) Whites held the meta:..stereotype that their group (Whites) is viewed by Blacks to be prejudiced; and (c) prejudiced meta-stereotypes may be formed through the social projection of intergroup attitudes (result of path-model tests). Further, several correlates of social projection and meta-stereotypes were identified, including the finding that feeling negatively stereotyped by an outgroup predicted outgroup avoidance through heightened intergroup anxiety. Study 2 replicated and extended these findings, investigating the social projection of ingroup favouritism and meta- and other-stereotypes about ingroup favouritism. These processes were examined experimentally using an anticipated intergroup contact paradigm. The goal was to understand the experimental conditions under which people would display the strongest social projection of intergroup attitudes, and when experimentally induced meta-stereotypes (vs. other-stereotypes; beliefs about the group 11 preferences of one's outgroup) would be most damaging to intergroup contact. White participants were randomly assigned to one of six conditions and received (alleged) feedback from a previously completed computer-based test. Depending on condition, this information suggested that: (a) the participant favoured Whites over Blacks; (b) previous White participants favoured Whites over Blacks; (c) the participant's Black partner favoured Blacks over Whites; (d) previous Black participants favoured Blacks over Whites; (e) the participant's Black partner viewed the participant to favour Whites over Blacks; or (£) Black participants previously participating viewed Whites to favour Whites over Blacks. In a defensive reaction, Whites exhibited enhanced social projection of personal intergroup attitudes onto their ingroup under experimental manipulations characterized by self-concept threat (i.e., when the computer revealed that the participant favoured the ingroup or was viewed to favour the ingroup). Manipulated meta- and otherstereotype information that introduced intergroup contact threat, on the other hand, each exerted a strong negative impact on intergroup contact expectations (e.g., anxiety). Personal meta-stereotype manipulations (i.e., when the participant was informed that her/ his partner thinks s/he favours the ingroup) exerted an especially negative impact on intergroup behaviour, evidenced by increased avoidance of the upcoming interracial interaction. In contrast, personal self-stereotype manipulations (i.e., computer revealed that one favoured the ingroup) ironically improved upcoming intergroup contact expectations and intentions, likely due to an attempt to reduce the discomfort of holding negative intergroup attitudes. Implications and directions for future research are considered.

Subjective Ambivalence and the Expression of Anti-Gay Bias

Univalent attitudes toward gay people have been widely studied, but no research to date has examined ambivalent (i.e., torn, conflicted) attitudes toward gay people. However, the Justification-Suppression Model (JSM; Crandall & Eshleman, 2003) proposes that ambivalence leads to biased expressions through intrapsychic processes which facilitate biased expression, particularly in contexts presenting strong justifications for expressing prejudice and weak pressures to suppress prejudice. I test these implications in the context of bias toward gay people. In Study 1, the measurement of ambivalence is examined in terms of both subjective ambivalence (i.e., the reported experience of “torn” attitudes) and calculated ambivalence (i.e., mathematical conflict between positive and negative attitude components). I find that higher subjective ambivalence is only associated with more negative attitudes toward gay people (and not positive attitudes toward gay people), and that higher subjective ambivalence predicts less gay rights support even after taking negative and positive attitudes toward gay people into account. Further, higher subjective ambivalence is associated with ideological opposition to gay people and more negative intergroup emotions (e.g., intergroup disgust). These findings suggest it is valuable to examine the unique component of subjective ambivalence separate from univalent negativity. Because calculated ambivalence measures are mathematically dependent upon a univalent negative measure, they cannot be examined separately from negativity. Therefore, subjective ambivalence is the focus of Study 2. The main goals of Study 2 were to determine why and when subjective ambivalence is related to bias. I examined the extent to which the negative relation between subjective ambivalence and opposition to anti-gay bullying can be accounted for by lower intergroup empathy and lower collective guilt, which may facilitate the expression of bias in keeping with the JSM. The relation between subjective ambivalence and anti-gay bullying opposition was examined within four social contexts based on a 2 (high vs. low offensiveness) x 2 (normatively unjustified vs. normatively justified) manipulation. I expected that higher subjective ambivalence would be most strongly related to lower intergroup empathy and collective guilt when there are the strongest justifications for bias expression, and that lower intergroup empathy and collective guilt would lead to less opposition to anti-gay bullying. Higher subjective ambivalence predicted less anti-gay bullying opposition. After accounting for positivity and negativity, the direct effect of subjective ambivalence was no longer significant, yet subjective ambivalence uniquely predicted intergroup empathy, which in turn predicted less anti-gay bullying opposition. These findings provide evidence that subjective ambivalence is largely negative in nature, but also presents evidence for a unique component of subjective ambivalence (separate from univalent attitudes) associated with low intergroup empathy and negativity. In contrast to previous research, I found very little evidence for the context-dependency of subjective ambivalence. Further research on subjective ambivalence, including subjective ambivalence toward other social groups, may expand our understanding of the factors leading to biased expressions.

Subliminal Exposure to Empathy Primes: A New Method to Reduce Intergroup Bias?

An abundant literature has demonstrated the benefits of empathy for intergroup relations (e.g., Batson, Chang, Orr, & Rowland, 2002). In addition, empathy has been identified as the mechanism by which various successful prejudice-reduction procedures impact attitudes and behaviour (e.g., Costello & Hodson, 2010). However, standard explicit techniques used in empathy-prejudice research have a number of potential limitations (e.g., resistance; McGregor, 1993). The present project explored an alternative technique, subliminally priming (i.e., outside of awareness) empathy-relevant terms (Study 1), or empathy itself (Study 2). Study 1 compared the effects of exposure to subliminal empathy-relevant primes (e.g., compassion) versus no priming and priming the opposite of empathy (e.g., indifference) on prejudice (i.e., negative attitudes), discrimination (i.e., resource allocation), and helping behaviour (i.e., willingness to empower, directly assist, or expect group change) towards immigrants. Relative to priming the opposite of empathy, participants exposed to primes of empathy-relevant constructs expressed less prejudice and were more willingness to empower immigrants. In addition, the effects were not moderated by individual differences in prejudice-relevant variables (i.e., Disgust Sensitivity, Intergroup Disgust-Sensitivity, Intergroup Anxiety, Social Dominance Orientation, Right-wing Authoritarianism). Study 2 considered a different target category (i.e., Blacks) and attempted to strengthen the effects found by comparing the impact of subliminal empathy primes (relative to no prime or subliminal primes of empathy paired with Blacks) on explicit prejudice towards marginalized groups and Blacks, willingness to help marginalized groups and Blacks, as well as implicit prejudice towards Blacks. In addition, Study 2 considered potential mechanisms for the predicted effects; specifically, general empathy, affective empathy towards Blacks, cognitive empathy towards Blacks, positive mood, and negative mood. Unfortunately, using subliminal empathy primes “backfired”, such that exposure to subliminal empathy primes (relative to no prime) heightened prejudice towards marginalized groups and Blacks, and led to stronger expectations that marginalized groups and Blacks improve their own situation. However, exposure to subliminal primes pairing empathy with Blacks (relative to subliminal empathy primes alone) resulted in less prejudice towards marginalized groups and more willingness to directly assist Blacks, as expected. Interestingly, exposure to subliminal primes of empathy paired with Blacks (vs. empathy alone) resulted in more pro-White bias on the implicit prejudice measure. Study 2 did not find that the potential mediators measured explained the effects found. Overall, the results of the present project do not provide strong support for the use of subliminal empathy primes for improving intergroup relations. In fact, the results of Study 2 suggest that the use of subliminal empathy primes may even backfire. The implications for intergroup research on empathy and priming procedures generally are discussed.

Individual Differences in Global/Local Processing Bias and the Attentional Blink

When the second of two targets (T2) is presented temporally close to the first target (T1) in rapid serial visual presentation, accuracy to detect/identify T2 is markedly reduced as compared to longer target separations. This is known as the attentional blink (AB), and is thought to reflect a limitation of selective attention. While most individuals show an AB, research has demonstrated that individuals are variously susceptible to this effect. To explain these differences, Dale and Arnell (2010) examined whether dispositional differences in attentional breadth, as measured by the Navon letter task, could predict individual AB magnitude. They found that individuals who showed a natural bias toward the broad, global level of Navon letter stimuli were less susceptible to the AB as compared to individuals who showed a natural bias toward the detailed, local aspects of Navon letter stimuli. This suggests that individuals who naturally broaden their attention can overcome the AB. However, it was unclear how stable these individual differences were over time, and whether a variety of global/local tasks could predict AB performance. As such, the purpose of this dissertation was to investigate, through four empirical studies, the nature of individual differences in both global/local bias and the AB, and how these differences in attentional breadth can modulate AB performance. Study 1 was designed to examine the stability of dispositional global/local biases over time, as well as the relationships among three different global/local processing measures. Study 2 examined the stability of individual differences in the AB, as well as the relationship among two distinct AB tasks. Study 3 examined whether the three distinct global/local tasks used in Study 1 could predict performance on the two AB tasks from Study 2. Finally, Study 4 explored whether individual differences in global/local bias could be manipulated by exposing participants to high/low spatial frequencies and Navon stimuli. In Study 1, I showed that dispositional differences in global/local bias were reliable over a period of at least a week, demonstrating that these individual biases may be trait-like. However, the three tasks that purportedly measure global/local bias were unrelated to each other, suggesting that they measure unique aspects of global/local processing. In Study 2, I found that individual variation in AB performance was also reliable over a period of at least a week, and that the two AB task versions were correlated. Study 3 showed that dispositional global/local biases, as measured by the three tasks from Study 1, predicted AB magnitude, such that individuals who were naturally globally biased had smaller ABs. Finally, in Study 4 I demonstrated that these dispositional global/local biases are resistant to both spatial frequency and Navon letter manipulations, indicating that these differences are robust and intractable. Overall, the results of the four studies in this dissertation help clarify the role of individual differences in attentional breadth in selective attention.

A Prudent Central Banker

This paper studies monetary policy in an economy where the central banker's preferences are asymmetric around optimal inflation. In particular, positive deviations from the optimum can be weighted more, or less, severely than negative deviations in the policy maker's loss function. It is shown that under asymmetric preferences, uncertainty can induce a prudent behavior on the part of the central banker. Since the prudence motive can be large enough to override the inflation bias, optimal monetary policy could be implemented even in the absence of rules, reputation, or contractual mechanisms. For certain parameter values, a deflationary bias can arise in equilibrium.

The Inflation Bias When the Central Bank Targets, the Natural Rate of Unemployment

This paper studies the proposition that an inflation bias can arise in a setup where a central banker with asymmetric preferences targets the natural unemployment rate. Preferences are asymmetric in the sense that positive unemployment deviations from the natural rate are weighted more (or less) severely than negative deviations in the central banker's loss function. The bias is proportional to the conditional variance of unemployment. The time-series predictions of the model are evaluated using data from G7 countries. Econometric estimates support the prediction that the conditional variance of unemployment and the rate of inflation are positively related.

An Autoregressive Spectral Density Estimator at Frequency Zero for Nonstationarity Tests.

Many unit root and cointegration tests require an estimate of the spectral density function at frequency zero at some process. Kernel estimators based on weighted sums of autocovariances constructed using estimated residuals from an AR(1) regression are commonly used. However, it is known that with substantially correlated errors, the OLS estimate of the AR(1) parameter is severely biased. in this paper, we first show that this least squares bias induces a significant increase in the bias and mean-squared error of kernel-based estimators.

Cardiologie nucléaire du 21ième siècle : nouveautés et réalités

Les maladies cardio-vasculaires demeurent une cause majeure de mortalité et morbidité dans les sociétés développées. La recherche de déterminants prédictifs d’évènements vasculaires représente toujours un enjeu d’actualité face aux coûts croissants des dépenses reliées aux soins médicaux et à l’élargissement des populations concernées, notamment face à l’occidentalisation des pays émergeants comme l’Inde, le Brésil et la Chine. La cardiologie nucléaire occupe depuis trente ans, une place essentielle dans l’arsenal des méthodes diagnostiques et pronostiques des cardiopathies. De plus, de nouvelles percées permettront de dépister d’une façon plus précoce et précise, la maladie athérosclérotique cardiaque et périphérique chez les populations atteintes ainsi qu’en prévention primaire. Nous présenterons dans cette thèse, deux approches nouvelles de la cardiologie nucléaire. La dysfonction endothéliale est considérée comme le signal pathologique le plus précoce de l’athérosclérose. Les facteurs de risques cardiovasculaires traditionnels atteignent la fonction endothéliale et peuvent initier le processus d’athérosclérose même en l’absence de lésion endothéliale physique. La quantification de la fonction endothéliale coronarienne comporte donc un intérêt certain comme biomarqueur précoce de la maladie coronarienne. La pléthysmographie isotopique, méthodologie développée lors de ce cycle d’étude, permet de quantifier la fonction endothéliale périphérique, cette dernière étant corrélée à la fonction endothéliale coronarienne. Cette méthodologie est démontrée dans le premier manuscrit (Harel et. al., Physiol Meas., 2007). L’utilisation d’un radiomarquage des érythrocytes permet la mesure du flot artériel au niveau du membre supérieur pendant la réalisation d’une hyperémie réactive locale. Cette nouvelle procédure a été validée en comparaison à la pléthysmographie par jauge de contrainte sur une cohorte de 26 patients. Elle a démontré une excellente reproductibilité (coefficient de corrélation intra-classe = 0.89). De plus, la mesure du flot artérielle pendant la réaction hyperémique corrélait avec les mesure réalisées par la méthode de référence (r=0.87). Le deuxième manuscrit expose les bases de la spectroscopie infrarouge comme méthodologie de mesure du flot artériel et quantification de la réaction hyperémique (Harel et. al., Physiol Meas., 2008). Cette étude utilisa un protocole de triples mesures simultanées à l’aide de la pléthysmographie par jauge de contrainte, radio-isotopique et par spectroscopie infrarouge. La technique par spectroscopie fut démontrée précise et reproductible quant à la mesure des flots artériels au niveau de l’avant-bras. Cette nouvelle procédure a présenté des avantages indéniables quant à la diminution d’artéfact et à sa facilité d’utilisation. Le second volet de ma thèse porte sur l’analyse du synchronisme de contraction cardiaque. En effet, plus de 30% des patients recevant une thérapie de resynchronisation ne démontre pas d’amélioration clinique. De plus, ce taux de non-réponse est encore plus élevé lors de l’utilisation de critères morphologiques de réponse à la resynchronisation (réduction du volume télésystolique). Il existe donc un besoin urgent de développer une méthodologie de mesure fiable et précise de la dynamique cardiaque. Le troisième manuscrit expose les bases d’une nouvelle technique radio-isotopique permettant la quantification de la fraction d’éjection du ventricule gauche (Harel et. al. J Nucl Cardiol., 2007). L’étude portant sur 202 patients a démontré une excellente corrélation (r=0.84) avec la méthode de référence (ventriculographie planaire). La comparaison avec le logiciel QBS (Cedar-Sinai) démontrait un écart type du biais inférieur (7.44% vs 9.36%). De plus, le biais dans la mesure ne démontrait pas de corrélation avec la magnitude du paramètre pour notre méthodologie, contrairement au logiciel alterne. Le quatrième manuscrit portait sur la quantification de l’asynchronisme intra-ventriculaire gauche (Harel et. al. J Nucl Cardiol, 2008). Un nouveau paramètre tridimensionnel (CHI: contraction homogeneity index) (médiane 73.8% ; IQ 58.7% - 84.9%) permis d’intégrer les composantes d’amplitude et du synchronisme de la contraction ventriculaire. La validation de ce paramètre fut effectuée par comparaison avec la déviation standard de l’histogramme de phase (SDΦ) (médiane 28.2º ; IQ 17.5º - 46.8º) obtenu par la ventriculographie planaire lors d’une étude portant sur 235 patients. Ces quatre manuscrits, déjà publiés dans la littérature scientifique spécialisée, résument une fraction des travaux de recherche que nous avons effectués durant les trois dernières années. Ces travaux s’inscrivent dans deux axes majeurs de développement de la cardiologie du 21ième siècle.