The EU ban on uncovered sovereign credit default swaps: assessing impacts on liquidity, volatility and price discovery

This article addresses the effects of the prohibition against naked CDS buying implemented by the European Union in November 2012. Three aspects of market quality are analyzed: liquidity, volatility, and price informativeness. Overall, our results suggest that the ban produced negative effects on liquidity and price informativeness. First, we find that in territories within the scope of the EU regulation, the bid–ask spreads on sovereign CDS contracts rose after the ban, but fell for countries outside its bounds. Open interest declined for both groups of CDS reference entities in our sample, but significantly more in the constraint group. Price delay increased more prominently for countries affected by the ban, whereas price precision decreased for these countries while increasing for CDSs written on other sovereign reference entities. Most notably, our findings indicate that hese negative effects were more pronounced amid reference entities exhibiting lower credit risk. With respect to volatility, the evidence suggests that the ban was successful in stabilizing the CDS market in that volatility decreased, particularly for contracts written on riskier CDS entities.

Identifying the knowledge management structures in enterprise systems projects

Enterprise System (ES) implementation and management are knowledge intensive tasks that inevitably draw upon the experience of a wide range of people with diverse knowledge capabilities. Knowledge Management (KM) has been identified as a critical success factor in ES projects. Despite the recognized importance of managing knowledge for ES benefits realization, systematic attempts to conceptualize KM-structures have been few. Where the adequacy of KM-structures is assessed, the process and measures are typically idiosyncratic and lack credibility. Using the ‘KM-process’, itself based in sociology of knowledge, this paper conceptualizes four main constructs to measure the adequacy of KM-structures. The SEM model is tested using 310 responses gathered from 27 ES installations that had implemented SAP R/3. The findings reveal six constructs for KM-structure. Furthermore, the paper demonstrates the application of KM-structures in the context of ES using the Adaptive Structuration Theory. The results demonstrate that having adequate KM-structures in place, while necessary, is not sufficient. These rules and resources must be appropriated to have greater positive influence on the Enterprise System. Furthermore, the study provides empirical support for knowledge-based theory by illustrating the importance of knowledge use/re-use (vs. knowledge creation) as the most important driver in the process of KM.

New particle formation and growth at a remote, sub-tropical coastal location

A month-long intensive measurement campaign was conducted in March/April 2007 at Agnes Water, a remote coastal site just south of the Great Barrier Reef on the east coast of Australia. Particle and ion size distributions were continuously measured during the campaign. Coastal nucleation events were observed in clean, marine air masses coming from the south-east on 65% of the days. The events usually began at ~10:00 local time and lasted for 1-4 hrs. They were characterised by the appearance of a nucleation mode with a peak diameter of ~10 nm. The freshly nucleated particles grew within 1-4 hrs up to sizes of 20-50 nm. The events occurred when solar intensity was high (~1000 W m-2) and RH was low (~60%). Interestingly, the events were not related to tide height. The volatile and hygroscopic properties of freshly nucleated particles (17-22.5 nm), simultaneously measured with a volatility-hygroscopicity-tandem differential mobility analyser (VH-TDMA), were used to infer chemical composition. The majority of the volume of these particles was attributed to internally mixed sulphate and organic components. After ruling out coagulation as a source of significant particle growth, we conclude that the condensation of sulphate and/or organic vapours was most likely responsible for driving particle growth during the nucleation events. We cannot make any direct conclusions regarding the chemical species that participated in the initial particle nucleation. However, we suggest that nucleation may have resulted from the photo-oxidation products of unknown sulphur or organic vapours emitted from the waters of Hervey Bay, or from the formation of DMS-derived sulphate clusters over the open ocean that were activated to observable particles by condensable vapours emitted from the nutrient rich waters around Fraser Island or Hervey Bay. Furthermore, a unique and particularly strong nucleation event was observed during northerly wind. The event began early one morning (08:00) and lasted almost the entire day resulting in the production of a large number of ~80 nm particles (average modal concentration during the event was 3200 cm-3). The Great Barrier Reef was the most likely source of precursor vapours responsible for this event.

Environmental monitoring of airborne nanoparticles

The aim of this work was to review the existing instrumental methods to monitor airborne nanoparticle in different types of indoor and outdoor environments in order to detect their presence and to characterise their properties. Firstly the terminology and definitions used in this field are discussed, which is followed by a review of the methods to measure particle physical characteristics including number concentration, size distribution and surface area. An extensive discussion is provided on the direct methods for particle elemental composition measurements, as well as on indirect methods providing information on particle volatility and solubility, and thus in turn on volatile and semivolatile compounds of which the particle is composed. A brief summary of broader considerations related to nanoparticle monitoring in different environments concludes the paper.

Developing a rural land investment performance index for New Zealand

Agricultural production is one of the major industries in New Zealand and accounts for over 60% of all export trade. The farming industry comprises 70,000 entities ranging in size from small individual run farms to large corporate operations. The reliance of the New Zealand economy to the international rural sector has seen considerable volatility in the rural land markets over the past four decades, with significant shifts in rural land prices based on location, land use and underlying international rural commodity prices. With the increasing attention being paid to the rural sector, especially in relation to food production and bio-fuels, there has been an increasing corporate interest in rural land ownership in relatively low subsidised agricultural producing countries such as New Zealand and Australia. A factor that has limited this participation of institutional investors previously has been a lack of reliable and up-to-date investment performance data for this asset class. This paper is the initial starting phase in the development of a New Zealand South Island rural land investment performance index and covers the period 1990-2007. The research in this paper analyses all rural sales transactions in the South Island and develops a capital return index for rural property based on major rural property land use. Additional work on this index will cover both total return performance and geographic location.

An empirical investigation of the level effect in Australian interest rates

An extensive literature examines the dynamics of interest rates, with particular attention given to the positive relationship between interest-rate volatility and the level of interest rates—the so-called level effect. This paper examines the interaction between the estimated level effect and competing parameterisations of interest-rate volatility for the Australian yield curve. We adopt a new methodology that estimates elasticity in a multivariate setting that explicitly accommodates the correlations that exist between various yield factors. Results show that significant correlations exist between the residuals of yield factors and that such correlations do indeed impact on model estimates. Within the multivariate setting, the level of the short rate is shown to be a crucial determinant of the conditional volatility of all three yield factors. Measures of model fit suggest that, in addition to the usual level effect, the incorporation of GARCH effects and possible regime shifts is important

Forecasting time-varying value-at-risk

In this thesis we are interested in financial risk and the instrument we want to use is Value-at-Risk (VaR). VaR is the maximum loss over a given period of time at a given confidence level. Many definitions of VaR exist and some will be introduced throughout this thesis. There two main ways to measure risk and VaR: through volatility and through percentiles. Large volatility in financial returns implies greater probability of large losses, but also larger probability of large profits. Percentiles describe tail behaviour. The estimation of VaR is a complex task. It is important to know the main characteristics of financial data to choose the best model. The existing literature is very wide, maybe controversial, but helpful in drawing a picture of the problem. It is commonly recognised that financial data are characterised by heavy tails, time-varying volatility, asymmetric response to bad and good news, and skewness. Ignoring any of these features can lead to underestimating VaR with a possible ultimate consequence being the default of the protagonist (firm, bank or investor). In recent years, skewness has attracted special attention. An open problem is the detection and modelling of time-varying skewness. Is skewness constant or there is some significant variability which in turn can affect the estimation of VaR? This thesis aims to answer this question and to open the way to a new approach to model simultaneously time-varying volatility (conditional variance) and skewness. The new tools are modifications of the Generalised Lambda Distributions (GLDs). They are four-parameter distributions, which allow the first four moments to be modelled nearly independently: in particular we are interested in what we will call para-moments, i.e., mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis. The GLDs will be used in two different ways. Firstly, semi-parametrically, we consider a moving window to estimate the parameters and calculate the percentiles of the GLDs. Secondly, parametrically, we attempt to extend the GLDs to include time-varying dependence in the parameters. We used the local linear regression to estimate semi-parametrically conditional mean and conditional variance. The method is not efficient enough to capture all the dependence structure in the three indices —ASX 200, S&P 500 and FT 30—, however it provides an idea of the DGP underlying the process and helps choosing a good technique to model the data. We find that GLDs suggest that moments up to the fourth order do not always exist, there existence appears to vary over time. This is a very important finding, considering that past papers (see for example Bali et al., 2008; Hashmi and Tay, 2007; Lanne and Pentti, 2007) modelled time-varying skewness, implicitly assuming the existence of the third moment. However, the GLDs suggest that mean, variance, skewness and in general the conditional distribution vary over time, as already suggested by the existing literature. The GLDs give good results in estimating VaR on three real indices, ASX 200, S&P 500 and FT 30, with results very similar to the results provided by historical simulation.

Modeling multivariate autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity with the double smooth transition conditional correlation GARCH Model

In this paper, we propose a multivariate GARCH model with a time-varying conditional correlation structure. The new double smooth transition conditional correlation (DSTCC) GARCH model extends the smooth transition conditional correlation (STCC) GARCH model of Silvennoinen and Teräsvirta (2005) by including another variable according to which the correlations change smoothly between states of constant correlations. A Lagrange multiplier test is derived to test the constancy of correlations against the DSTCC-GARCH model, and another one to test for another transition in the STCC-GARCH framework. In addition, other specification tests, with the aim of aiding the model building procedure, are considered. Analytical expressions for the test statistics and the required derivatives are provided. Applying the model to the stock and bond futures data, we discover that the correlation pattern between them has dramatically changed around the turn of the century. The model is also applied to a selection of world stock indices, and we find evidence for an increasing degree of integration in the capital markets.

Pairs trading profits in commodity futures markets

This study employs a pairs trading investment strategy on daily commodity futures returns. The study reveals that pairs trading in similarly related commodity futures earns statistically significant excess returns with commensurate volatility. The excess returns from pairs trading in commodity futures are unrelated to conventional market risk factors and they are not associated with classic contrarian investing. The evidence of pairs trading reflect compensation to arbitrageurs for enforcing the law of one price in similarly related market efficiency.

NSW rural land performance : 1990-2008

The annual income return for rural property is based on two major factors being commodity prices and production yields. Commodity prices paid to rural producers can vary depending on the agricultural policies of their respective countries. Free trade countries, such as Australia and New Zealand are subject to the volatility of the world commodity markets to a greater extent than those farmers in protected or subsidised markets. In countries where rural production is protected or subsidised the annual income received by rural producers has been relatively stable. However, the high cost of agricultural protection is now being questioned, particularly in relation to the increasing economic costs of government services such as health, education and housing. When combined with the agricultural production limitations of climate, topography, chemical residues and disease issues, the impact of commodity prices on rural property income is crucial in the ability of rural producers to enter into or expand their holdings in agricultural land. These problems are then reflected in the volatility of the rural land capital returns and the investment performance of this property class. This paper will address the total and capital return performance of a major agricultural area and compare these returns on the basis of both location of land and land use. The comparison will be used to determine if location or actual land use has a greater influence on rural property capital returns. This performance analysis is based on over 35,000 rural sales transactions. These transactions cover all market based rural property transactions in New South Wales, Australia for the period January 1990 to December 2008. Correlation analysis and investment performance analysis has also been carried out to determine the possible relationships between location and land use and subsequent changes in rural land capital values.

The impact of outcomes-driven curriculum reform on teacher perspectives of professional practice

This thesis is the result of an investigation of a Queensland example of curriculum reform based on outcomes, a type of reform common to many parts of the world during the last decade. The purpose of the investigation was to determine the impact of outcomes on teacher perspectives of professional practice. The focus was chosen to permit investigation not only of changes in behaviour resulting from the reform but also of teachers' attitudes and beliefs developed during implementation. The study is based on qualitative methodology, chosen because of its suitability for the investigation of attitudes and perspectives. The study exploits the researcher's opportunities for prolonged, direct contact with groups of teachers through the selection of an over-arching ethnography approach, an approach designed to capture the holistic nature of the reform and to contextualise the data within a broad perspective. The selection of grounded theory as a basis for data analysis reflects the open nature of this inquiry and demonstrates the study's constructivist assumptions about the production of knowledge. The study also constitutes a multi-site case study by virtue of the choice of three individual school sites as objects to be studied and to form the basis of the report. Three primary school sites administered by Brisbane Catholic Education were chosen as the focus of data collection. Data were collected from three school sites as teachers engaged in the first year of implementation of Student Performance Standards, the Queensland version of English outcomes based on the current English syllabus. Teachers' experience of outcomes-driven curriculum reform was studied by means of group interviews conducted at individual school sites over a period of fourteen months, researcher observations and the collection of artefacts such as report cards. Analysis of data followed grounded theory guidelines based on a system of coding. Though classification systems were not generated prior to data analysis, the labelling of categories called on standard, non-idiosyncratic terminology and analytic frames and concepts from existing literature wherever practicable in order to permit possible comparisons with other related research. Data from school sites were examined individually and then combined to determine teacher understandings of the reform, changes that have been made to practice and teacher responses to these changes in terms of their perspectives of professionalism. Teachers in the study understood the reform as primarily an accountability mechanism. Though teachers demonstrated some acceptance of the intentions of the reform, their responses to its conceptualisation, supporting documentation and implications for changing work practices were generally characterised by reduced confidence, anger and frustration. Though the impact of outcomes-based curriculum reform must be interpreted through the inter-relationships of a broad range of elements which comprise teachers' work and their attitudes towards their work, it is proposed that the substantive findings of the study can be understood in terms of four broad themes. First, when the conceptual design of outcomes did not serve teachers' accountability requirements and outcomes were perceived to be expressed in unfamiliar technical language, most teachers in the study lost faith in the value of the reform and lost confidence in their own abilities to understand or implement it. Second, this reduction of confidence was intensified when the scope of outcomes was outside the scope of the teachers' existing curriculum and assessment planning and teachers were confronted with the necessity to include aspects of syllabuses or school programs which they had previously omitted because of a lack of understanding or appreciation. The corollary was that outcomes promoted greater syllabus fidelity when frameworks were closely aligned. Third, other benefits the teachers associated with outcomes included the development of whole school curriculum resources and greater opportunity for teacher collaboration, particularly among schools. The teachers, however, considered a wide range of factors when determining the overall impact of the reform, and perceived a number of them in terms of the costs of implementation. These included the emergence of ethical dilemmas concerning relationships with students, colleagues and parents, reduced individual autonomy, particularly with regard to the selection of valued curriculum content and intensification of workload with the capacity to erode the relationships with students which teachers strongly associated with the rewards of their profession. Finally, in banding together at the school level to resist aspects of implementation, some teachers showed growing awareness of a collective authority capable of being exercised in response to top-down reform. These findings imply that Student Performance Standards require review and, additional implementation resourcing to support teachers through times of reduced confidence in their own abilities. Outcomes prove an effective means of high-fidelity syllabus implementation, and, provided they are expressed in an accessible way and aligned with syllabus frameworks and terminology, should be considered for inclusion in future syllabuses across a range of learning areas. The study also identifies a range of unintended consequences of outcomes-based curriculum and acknowledges the complexity of relationships among all the aspects of teachers' work. It also notes that the impact of reform on teacher perspectives of professional practice may alter teacher-teacher and school-system relationships in ways that have the potential to influence the effectiveness of future curriculum reform.

Governance in the Australian superannuation industry

In the Superannuation/Pension industry ordinary investors entrust their retirement savings to the trustees of the superannuation plan. Investors rely on the trustees to ensure ethical business and risk management practices are implemented to protect their retirement savings. Governance practices ensure the monitoring of ethical risk management (Drennan, 2004). The Australian superannuation industry presents a unique scenario. Legislation requires employers to contribute a minimum of 9% of the employees wage to retirement savings. However, there are no legislated governance standards, although there are standards of recommended governance practices. In this paper, we examine the level of voluntary adoption of governance practices by the trustees of Australian public sector and industry superannuation funds. We also assess whether superannuation governance practices are associated with performance and volatility/riskiness of returns. Survey results show that the majority of superannuation plans adopt recommended governance practices supporting the concept of ethical management of the member’s retirement savings. The examination of governance principles that impact returns and risk show that board size and regular review of conflicts are positively associated with return. Superannuation plans with higher volatility in returns meet more frequently.