Essays in equilibrium asset pricing

This thesis consists of four essays in equilibrium asset pricing. The main topic is investors' heterogeneity: I investigates the equilibrium implications for the financial markets when investors have different attitudes toward risk. The first chapter studies why expected risk and remuneration on the aggregate market are negatively related, even if intuition and standard theory suggest a positive relation. I show that the negative trade-off can obtain in equilibrium if investors' beliefs about economic fundamentals are procyclically biased and the market Sharpe ratio is countercyclical. I verify that such conditions hold in the real markets and I find empirical support for the risk-return dynamics predicted by the model. The second chapter consists of two essays. The first essay studies how het¬erogeneity in risk preferences interacts with other sources of heterogeneity and how this affects asset prices in equilibrium. Using perceived macroeconomic un¬certainty as source of heterogeneity, the model helps to explain some patterns of financial returns, even if heterogeneity is small as suggested by survey data. The second essay determines conditions such that equilibrium prices have analytical solutions when investors have heterogeneous risk attitudes and macroeconomic fundamentals feature latent uncertainty. This approach provides additional in-sights to the previous literature where models require numerical solutions. The third chapter studies why equity claims (i.e. assets paying a single future dividend) feature premia and risk decreasing with the horizon, even if standard models imply the opposite shape. I show that labor relations helps to explain the puzzle. When workers have bargaining power to exploit partial income insurance within the firm, wages are smoother and dividends are riskier than in a standard economy. Distributional risk among workers and shareholders provides a rationale to the equity short-term risk, which leads to downward sloping term structures of premia and risk for equity claim. Résumé Cette thèse se compose de quatre essais dans l'évaluation des actifs d'équilibre. Le sujet principal est l'hétérogénéité des investisseurs: J'étudie les implications d'équilibre pour les marchés financiers où les investisseurs ont des attitudes différentes face au risque. Le première chapitre étudie pourquoi attendus risque et la rémunération sur le marché global sont liées négativement, même si l'intuition et la théorie standard suggèrent une relation positive. Je montre que le compromis négatif peut obtenir en équilibre si les croyances des investisseurs sur les fondamentaux économiques sont procyclique biaisées et le ratio de Sharpe du marché est anticyclique. Je vérifier que ces conditions sont réalisées dans les marchés réels et je trouve un appui empirique à la dynamique risque-rendement prédites par le modèle. Le deuxième chapitre se compose de deux essais. Le première essai étudie com¬ment hétérogénéité dans les préférences de risque inter agit avec d'autres sources d'hétérogénéité et comment cela affecte les prix des actifs en équilibre. Utili¬sation de l'incertitude macroéconomique perù comme source d'hétérogénéité, le modèle permet d'expliquer certaines tendances de rendements financiers, même si l'hétérogénéité est faible comme suggéré par les données d'enquête. Le deuxième essai détermine des conditions telles que les prix d'équilibre disposer de solutions analytiques lorsque les investisseurs ont des attitudes des risques hétérogènes et les fondamentaux macroéconomiques disposent d'incertitude latente. Cette approche fournit un éclairage supplémentaire à la littérature antérieure où les modèles nécessitent des solutions numériques. Le troisième chapitre étudie pourquoi les equity-claims (actifs que paient un seul dividende futur) ont les primes et le risque décroissante avec l'horizon, mme si les modèles standards impliquent la forme opposée. Je montre que les relations de travail contribue à expliquer l'énigme. Lorsque les travailleurs ont le pouvoir de négociation d'exploiter assurance revenu partiel dans l'entreprise, les salaires sont plus lisses et les dividendes sont plus risqués que dans une économie standard. Risque de répartition entre les travailleurs et les actionnaires fournit une justification à le risque à court terme, ce qui conduit à des term-structures en pente descendante des primes et des risques pour les equity-claims.

Food Co-ops Toolkit

More and more communities are setting up food co-ops so they can get good food atan affordable price and have more control over where their food comes from. Co-operation is all about two or more people joining forces and working together to achieve something they probably couldn't do on their own. In the case of food co-ops a group of people join forces in order to be able to buy foodsthey may otherwise find it hard to get hold of at aprice they can afford.By volunteering their time and pooling their buying power they cangetproducedirect from local farmers or wholesalers. This toolkit was produced as part of the Big Lottery fundedMaking Local Food Work programmeto help morecommunitiesset up their own food co-ops and buying groups.The Food Co-ops project has now ended but the toolkit and other resources will all remain on-line.To find moreabout food co-opsyou can visit our main website www.foodcoops.org

Coating carbon nanotubes with a polystyrene-based polymer protects against pulmonary toxicity.

BACKGROUND: carbon nanotubes (CNT) can have adverse effects on health. Therefore, minimizing the risk associated with CNT exposure is of crucial importance. The aim of this work was to evaluate if coating multi-walled CNT (MWCNT) with polymers could modify their toxicity, thus representing a useful strategy to decrease adverse health effects of CNT. We used industrially-produced MWCNT uncoated (NT1) or coated (50/50 wt%) with acid-based (NT2) or polystyrene-based (NT3) polymer, and exposed murine macrophages (RAW 264.7 cell line) or Balb/c mice by intratracheal administration. Biological experiments were performed both in vitro and in vivo, examining time- and dose-dependent effects of CNT, in terms of cytotoxicity, expression of genes and proteins related to oxidative stress, inflammation and tissue remodeling, cell and lung tissue morphology (optical and transmission electron microscopy), and bronchoalveolar lavage fluid content analysis.RESULTS: extensive physico-chemical characterization of MWCNT was performed, and showed, although similar dimensions for the 3 MWCNT, a much smaller specific surface area for NT2 and NT3 as compared to NT1 (54.1, 34 and 227.54 m(2)/g respectively), along with different surface characteristics. MWCNT-induced cytotoxicity, oxidative stress, and inflammation were increased by acid-based and decreased by polystyrene-based polymer coating both in vitro in murine macrophages and in vivo in lung of mice monitored for 6 months.CONCLUSIONS: these results demonstrate that coating CNT with polymers, without affecting their intrinsic structure, may constitute a useful strategy for decreasing CNT toxicity, and may hold promise for improving occupational safety and that of general the user.

The robustness of the weak selection approximation for the evolution of altruism against strong selection.

The weak selection approximation of population genetics has made possible the analysis of social evolution under a considerable variety of biological scenarios. Despite its extensive usage, the accuracy of weak selection in predicting the emergence of altruism under limited dispersal when selection intensity increases remains unclear. Here, we derive the condition for the spread of an altruistic mutant in the infinite island model of dispersal under a Moran reproductive process and arbitrary strength of selection. The simplicity of the model allows us to compare weak and strong selection regimes analytically. Our results demonstrate that the weak selection approximation is robust to moderate increases in selection intensity and therefore provides a good approximation to understand the invasion of altruism in spatially structured population. In particular, we find that the weak selection approximation is excellent even if selection is very strong, when either migration is much stronger than selection or when patches are large. Importantly, we emphasize that the weak selection approximation provides the ideal condition for the invasion of altruism, and increasing selection intensity will impede the emergence of altruism. We discuss that this should also hold for more complicated life cycles and for culturally transmitted altruism. Using the weak selection approximation is therefore unlikely to miss out on any demographic scenario that lead to the evolution of altruism under limited dispersal.

Assessment of left coronary artery beat-to-beat repositioning in order to propose an optimal acquisition window for coronary MRA

Introduction: Coronary magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) is a medical imaging technique that involves collecting data from consecutive heartbeats, always at the same time in the cardiac cycle, in order to minimize heart motion artifacts. This technique relies on the assumption that coronary arteries always follow the same trajectory from heartbeat to heartbeat. Until now, choosing the acquisition window in the cardiac cycle was based exclusively on the position of minimal coronary motion. The goal of this study was to test the hypothesis that there are time intervals during the cardiac cycle when coronary beat-to-beat repositioning is optimal. The repositioning uncertainty values in these time intervals were then compared with the intervals of low coronary motion in order to propose an optimal acquisition window for coronary MRA. Methods: Cine breath-hold x-ray angiograms with synchronous ECG were collected from 11 patients who underwent elective routine diagnostic coronarography. Twenty-three bifurcations of the left coronary artery were selected as markers to evaluate repositioning uncertainty and velocity during cardiac cycle. Each bifurcation was tracked by two observers, with the help of a user-assisted algorithm implemented in Matlab (The Mathworks, Natick, MA, USA) that compared the trajectories of the markers coming from consecutive heartbeats and computed the coronary repositioning uncertainty with steps of 50ms until 650ms after the R-wave. Repositioning uncertainty was defined as the diameter of the smallest circle encompassing the points to be compared at the same time after the R-wave. Student's t-tests with a false discovery rate (FDR, q=0.1) correction for multiple comparison were applied to see whether coronary repositioning and velocity vary statistically during cardiac cycle. Bland-Altman plots and linear regression were used to assess intra- and inter-observer agreement. Results: The analysis of left coronary artery beat-to-beat repositioning uncertainty shows a tendency to have better repositioning in mid systole (less than 0.84±0.58mm) and mid diastole (less than 0.89±0.6mm) than in the rest of the cardiac cycle (highest value at 50ms=1.35±0.64mm). According to Student's t-tests with FDR correction for multiple comparison (q=0.1), two intervals, in mid systole (150-200ms) and mid diastole (550-600ms), provide statistically better repositioning in comparison with the early systole and the early diastole. Coronary velocity analysis reveals that left coronary artery moves more slowly in end systole (14.35±11.35mm/s at 225ms) and mid diastole (11.78±11.62mm/s at 625ms) than in the rest of the cardiac cycle (highest value at 25ms: 55.96±22.34mm/s). This was confirmed by Student's t-tests with FDR correction for multiple comparison (q=0.1, FDR-corrected p-value=0.054): coronary velocity values at 225, 575 and 625ms are not much different between them but they are statistically inferior to all others. Bland-Altman plots and linear regression show that intra-observer agreement (y=0.97x+0.02 with R²=0.93 at 150ms) is better than inter-observer (y=0.8x+0.11 with R²=0.67 at 150ms). Discussion: The present study has demonstrated that there are two time intervals in the cardiac cycle, one in mid systole and one in mid diastole, where left coronary artery repositioning uncertainty reaches points of local minima. It has also been calculated that the velocity is the lowest in end systole and mid diastole. Since systole is less influenced by heart rate variability than diastole, it was finally proposed to test an acquisition window between 150 and 200ms after the R-wave.

SAAP - Sistema Automático de Apuestas de Poker

Se trata de la creación de una aplicación de apuestas virtuales automáticas al juego del Texas Hold'Em Poker en el mercado de apuestas más grande que existe ahora mismo en Internet, en Betfair, en su categoría de X-Games. La aplicación permite seleccionar varias estrategias de apuestas que irá aplicando en cada juego.

Case-control study of factors associated with chronic Chagas heart disease in patients over 50 years of age

A case-control study on chronic Chagas heart disease (CCHD) was carried out between 1997 and 2005. Ninety patients over 50 years of age were examined for factors related to (CCHD). Fourty-six patients (51.1%) with Chagas heart disease (anomalous ECG) were assigned to the case group and 44 (48.9%) were included in the control group as carriers of undetermined forms of chronic disease. Social, demographic (age, gender, skin color, area of origin), epidemiological (permanence within an endemic zone, family history of Chagas heart disease or sudden death, physical strain, alcoholism, and smoking), and clinical (systemic hypertension) variables were analyzed. The data set was assessed through single-variable and multivariate analysis. The two factors independently associated with heart disease were age - presence of heart disease being three times higher in patients over 60 years of age (odds ratio, OR: 2.89; confidence interval of 95%: 1.09-7.61) - and family history of Chagas heart disease (OR: 2.833, CI 95%: 1.11-7.23). Systemic hypertension and gender did not prove to hold any association with heart disease, as neither did skin color, but this variable showed low statistical power due to reduced sample size.

How confident can we be that orthologs are similar, but paralogs differ?

Homologous genes are classified into orthologs and paralogs, depending on whether they arose by speciation or duplication. It is widely assumed that orthologs share similar functions, whereas paralogs are expected to diverge more from each other. But does this assumption hold up on further examination? We present evidence that orthologs and paralogs are not so different in either their evolutionary rates or their mechanisms of divergence. We emphasize the importance of appropriately designed studies to test models of gene evolution between orthologs and between paralogs. Thus, functional change between orthologs might be as common as between paralogs, and future studies should be designed to test the impact of duplication against this alternative model.

Prediction of postpartum depression using multilayer perceptrons and pruning.

OBJECTIVE. The main goal of this paper is to obtain a classification model based on feed-forward multilayer perceptrons in order to improve postpartum depression prediction during the 32 weeks after childbirth with a high sensitivity and specificity and to develop a tool to be integrated in a decision support system for clinicians. MATERIALS AND METHODS. Multilayer perceptrons were trained on data from 1397 women who had just given birth, from seven Spanish general hospitals, including clinical, environmental and genetic variables. A prospective cohort study was made just after delivery, at 8 weeks and at 32 weeks after delivery. The models were evaluated with the geometric mean of accuracies using a hold-out strategy. RESULTS. Multilayer perceptrons showed good performance (high sensitivity and specificity) as predictive models for postpartum depression. CONCLUSIONS. The use of these models in a decision support system can be clinically evaluated in future work. The analysis of the models by pruning leads to a qualitative interpretation of the influence of each variable in the interest of clinical protocols.

National character does not reflect mean personality trait levels in 49 cultures

Most people hold beliefs about personality characteristics typical members of their own and others' cultures. These perceptions of national character may be generalizations from personal experience, stereotypes with a "kernel of truth", or inaccurate stereotypes. We obtained national character ratings of 3989 people from 49 cultures and compared them with the average personality scores of culture members assessed by observer ratings and self-reports. National character ratings were reliable but did not converge with assessed traits. Perceptions of national character thus appear to be unfounded stereotypes that may serve the function of maintaining a national identity.

Role and therapeutic potential of microRNAs in diabetes.

The discovery in mammalian cells of hundreds of small RNA molecules, called microRNAs, with the potential to modulate the expression of the majority of the protein-coding genes has revolutionized many areas of biomedical research, including the diabetes field. MicroRNAs function as translational repressors and are emerging as key regulators of most, if not all, physiological processes. Moreover, alterations in the level or function of microRNAs are associated with an increasing number of diseases. Here, we describe the mechanisms governing the biogenesis and activities of microRNAs. We present evidence for the involvement of microRNAs in diabetes mellitus, by outlining the contribution of these small RNA molecules in the control of pancreatic beta-cell functions and by reviewing recent studies reporting changes in microRNA expression in tissues isolated from diabetes animal models. MicroRNAs hold great potential as therapeutic targets. We describe the strategies developed for the delivery of molecules mimicking or blocking the function of these tiny regulators of gene expression in living animals. In addition, because changes in serum microRNA profiles have been shown to occur in association with different human diseases, we also discuss the potential use of microRNAs as blood biomarkers for prevention and management of diabetes.

High rates of undiagnosed leprosy and subclinical infection amongst school children in the Amazon Region

Leprosy in children is correlated with community-level factors, including the recent presence of disease and active foci of transmission in the community. We performed clinical and serological examinations of 1,592 randomly selected school children (SC) in a cross-sectional study of eight hyperendemic municipalities in the Brazilian Amazon Region. Sixty-three (4%) SC, with a mean age of 13.3 years (standard deviation = 2.6), were diagnosed with leprosy and 777 (48.8%) were seropositive for anti-phenolic glycolipid-I (PGL-I). Additionally, we evaluated 256 house-hold contacts (HHCs) of the students diagnosed with leprosy; 24 (9.4%) HHC were also diagnosed with leprosy and 107 (41.8%) were seropositive. The seroprevalence of anti-PGL-I was significantly higher amongst girls, students from urban areas and students from public schools (p < 0.0001). Forty-five (71.4%) new cases detected amongst SC were classified as paucibacillary and 59 (93.6%) patients did not demonstrate any degree of physical disability at diagnosis. The results of this study suggest that there is a high rate of undiagnosed leprosy and subclinical infection amongst children in the Amazon Region. The advantages of school surveys in hyperendemic areas include identifying leprosy patients at an early stage when they show no physical disabilities, preventing the spread of the infection in the community and breaking the chain of transmission.

The TT genotype of the STAT4 rs7574865 polymorphism is associated with high disease activity and disability in patients with early arthritis

BACKGROUND The number of copies of the HLA-DRB1 shared epitope, and the minor alleles of the STAT4 rs7574865 and the PTPN22 rs2476601 polymorphisms have all been linked with an increased risk of developing rheumatoid arthritis. In the present study, we investigated the effects of these genetic variants on disease activity and disability in patients with early arthritis. METHODOLOGY AND RESULTS We studied 640 patients with early arthritis (76% women; median age, 52 years), recording disease-related variables every 6 months during a 2-year follow-up. HLA-DRB1 alleles were determined by PCR-SSO, while rs7574865 and rs2476601 were genotyped with the Taqman 5' allelic discrimination assay. Multivariate analysis was performed using generalized estimating equations for repeated measures. After adjusting for confounding variables such as gender, age and ACPA, the TT genotype of rs7574865 in STAT4 was associated with increased disease activity (DAS28) as compared with the GG genotype (β coefficient [95% confidence interval] = 0.42 [0.01-0.83], p = 0.044). Conversely, the presence of the T allele of rs2476601 in PTPN22 was associated with diminished disease activity during follow-up in a dose-dependent manner (CT genotype = -0.27 [-0.56- -0.01], p = 0.042; TT genotype = -0.68 [-1.64- -0.27], p = 0.162). After adjustment for gender, age and disease activity, homozygosity for the T allele of rs7574865 in STAT4 was associated with greater disability as compared with the GG genotype. CONCLUSIONS Our data suggest that patients with early arthritis who are homozygous for the T allele of rs7574865 in STAT4 may develop a more severe form of the disease with increased disease activity and disability.

Presidents and parties in regional politics: Italy and Spain compared

This article examines the relationship between political parties and regional presidents in Italy and Spain, adopting a comparative case study approach based on extensive archival analysis and in-depth interviews with regional politicians. The findings confirm a strong pattern of growing presidentialism at regional level, regardless of whether there are formal mechanisms for direct election, and regardless of the partisan composition of regional government. Regional presidents tend to exert their growing power through a personalised control of regional party organisations, rather than governing past parties in a direct appeal to the electorate. Nevertheless, parties can still present a significant constraint on regional presidents, so successful regional presidents tend to maintain a mediating form of leadership and fully exploit the opportunities for party patronage to build up their support and smooth governing tensions. An autonomist drive helps presidents hold together disparate coalitions or loose parties at regional level, but their lack of internal coherence presents major problems when it comes to political succession.

The Impact of the Electoral System on Political Campaigning : Are Candidates for the Council of States More Moderate than their Fellow Candidates for the National Council ?

It is commonly believed that majority voting enhances parties to cluster around the centre of the political space, whereas proportional systems (PR) foster great ideological divergence. The theoretical arguments for these expectations go back to the work of Downs (1957) and Duverger (1954). More recent studies, however, produced quite contradictory empirical findings. In this paper I will test whether similar arguments hold true for the positioning of candidates campaigning in different electoral systems. The elections for the two chambers of the Swiss Parliament and the data from the Swiss Electoral Studies (SELECTS) and the Swiss Voting Advice Application (VAA) smartvote offer an excellent - almost laboratory like - opportunity to do so empirically. The analyses show clearly, the theoretical claims that majority voting necessarily fosters more moderate positions find no support. The candidates for the Council of States, elected in a majority system, are not more moderate than their fellow party candidates for the National Council which are elected in a PR system.