Value at Risk in measuring market risk: Historical simulation

In this study the theoretical part was created to make comparison between different Value at Risk models. Based on that comparison one model was chosen to the empirical part which concentrated to find out whether the model is accurate to measure market risk. The purpose of this study was to test if Volatility-weighted Historical Simulation is accurate in measuring market risk and what improvements does it bring to market risk measurement compared to traditional Historical Simulation. Volatility-weighted method by Hull and White (1998) was chosen In order to improve the traditional methods capability to measure market risk. In this study we found out that result based on Historical Simulation are dependent on chosen time period, confidence level and how samples are weighted. The findings of this study are that we cannot say that the chosen method is fully reliable in measuring market risk because back testing results are changing during the time period of this study.

Mesoscale numerical analysis of the historical November 1982 heavy precipitation event over Andorra (Eastern Pyrenees)

From 6 to 8 November 1982 one of the most catastrophic flash-flood events was recorded in the Eastern Pyrenees affecting Andorra and also France and Spain with rainfall accumulations exceeding 400 mm in 24 h, 44 fatalities and widespread damage. This paper aims to exhaustively document this heavy precipitation event and examines mesoscale simulations performed by the French Meso-NH non-hydrostatic atmospheric model. Large-scale simulations show the slow-evolving synoptic environment favourable for the development of a deep Atlantic cyclone which induced a strong southerly flow over the Eastern Pyrenees. From the evolution of the synoptic pattern four distinct phases have been identified during the event. The mesoscale analysis presents the second and the third phase as the most intense in terms of rainfall accumulations and highlights the interaction of the moist and conditionally unstable flows with the mountains. The presence of a SW low level jet (30 m s-1) around 1500 m also had a crucial role on focusing the precipitation over the exposed south slopes of the Eastern Pyrenees. Backward trajectories based on Eulerian on-line passive tracers indicate that the orographic uplift was the main forcing mechanism which triggered and maintained the precipitating systems more than 30 h over the Pyrenees. The moisture of the feeding flow mainly came from the Atlantic Ocean (7-9 g kg-1) and the role of the Mediterranean as a local moisture source was very limited (2-3 g kg-1) due to the high initial water vapour content of the parcels and the rapid passage over the basin along the Spanish Mediterranean coast (less than 12 h).

Which Fungus Originally was Trichophyton mentagrophytes? Historical Review and Illustration by a Clinical Case.

Several dermatophytes producing numerous pyriform or round microconidia were called Trichophyton mentagrophytes. Among these dermatophytes are the teleomorph species Arthroderma benhamiae, Arthroderma vanbreuseghemii and Arthroderma simii, and other species such as Trichophyton interdigitale, Trichophyton erinacei and Trichophyton quinckeanum for which only the anamorph is known. Confusion exists about which fungus should be really called T. mentagrophytes and about the rational use of this name in practice. We report a case of beard ringworm (tinea barbae) with A. vanbreuseghemii. According to both clinical signs and the type of hair parasitism, this case was exactly compatible to the first description of a non-favic dermatophytosis by Gruby under the name of "mentagrophyte" from which was derived the dermatophyte epithet mentagrophytes. In addition, the phenotypic characters of the isolated fungus in cultures perfectly matched with those of the first description of a dermatophyte under T. mentagrophytes by Blanchard (Parasites animaux et parasites végétaux à l'exclusion des Bactéries, Masson, Paris, 1896). In conclusion, T. mentagrophytes corresponds to the fungus later named A. vanbreuseghemii. However, because the neotype of T. mentagrophytes was not adequately designated in regard to the ancient literature, we would privilege the use of A. vanbreuseghemii and abandon the name of T. mentagrophytes.

Present day distribution and historical biogeography of the tribu Ophidiini (Ophidiformes, Ophidiidae, Ophidiinae) from the East Tropical Atlantic (CLOFETA area) and North-East Atlantic and Mediterranean (CLOFNAM area)

The present day geographic distribution of the Ophidiini tribe (Ophidiidae, Ophidiinae) in the Clofnam (North- Eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean) and Clofeta (Eastern Tropical Atlantic) areas is revised in this paper. Results show that Parohidion vassali is not a Mediterranean endemic species, and the presence of Ophidion barbatum in the Atlantic is confirmed. Moreover, the paper tries to analyse the historical events which could have caused the present situation of two genera, Ophidion and Parophidion, both in the Atlantic and in the Mediterranean. Although first fossil records of Ophidion and Parophidion date from the Pliocene, when considering all the historical events occurred from the existence of the Tethys Sea to the opening of the Atlantic and the Mediterranean formation, a much earlier origin of these genera seems to be more likely. The situation of Ophidion barbatum and O. rochei in the Mediterranean and Black Sea is also discussed

Gamma Knife Surgery versus Linac for Brain Metastasis: Which Technique for Which Patient? Analysis of an Historical Cohort of 63 Consecutive Patients Harboring 130 Lesions

Objectives: We present the retrospective analysis of a single-institution experience for radiosurgery (RS) in brain metastasis (BM) with Gamma Knife (GK) and Linac. Methods: From July 2010 to July 2012, 28 patients (with 83 lesions) had RS with GK and 35 patients (with 47 lesions) with Linac. The primary outcome was the local progression-free survival (LPFS). The secondary outcome was the overall survival (OS). Apart a standard statistical analysis, we included a Cox regression model with shared frailty, to modulate the within-patient correlation (preliminary evaluation showed a significant frailty effect, meaning that the correlation within patient could be ignored). Results: The mean follow-up period was 11.7 months (median 7.9, 1.7-22.7) for GK and 18.1 (median 17, 7.5-28.7) for Linac. The median number of lesions per patient was 2.5 (1-9) in GK compared with 1 (1-3) in Linac. There were more radioresistant lesions (melanoma) and more lesions located in functional areas for the GK group. The median dose was 24 Gy (GK) compared with 20 Gy (Linac). The LPFS actuarial rate was as follows: for GK at 3, 6, 9, 12, and 17 months: 96.96, 96.96, 96.96, 88.1, and 81.5%, and remained stable till 32 months; for Linac at 3, 6, 12, 17, 24, and 33 months, it was 91.5, 91.5, 91.5, 79.9, 55.5, and 17.1%, respectively (p = 0.03, chi-square test). After the Cox regression analysis with shared frailty, the p-value was not statistically significant between groups. The median overall survival was 9.7 months for GK and 23.6 months for Linac group. Uni- and multivariate analysis showed a lower GPA score and noncontrolled systemic status were associated with lower OS. Cox regression analysis adjusting for these two parameters showed comparable OS rate. Conclusions: In this comparative report between GK and Linac, preliminary analysis showed that more difficult cases are treated by GK, with patients harboring more lesions, radioresistant tumors, and highly functional located. The groups look, in this sense, very heterogeneous at baseline. After a Cox frailty model, the LPFS rates seemed very similar (p < 0.05). The OS was similar, after adjusting for systemic status and GPA score (p < 0.05). The technical reasons for choosing GK instead of Linac were the anatomical location related to highly functional areas, histology, technical limitations of Linac movements, especially lower posterior fossa locations, or closeness of multiple lesions to highly functional areas optimal dosimetry with Linac

Economic Methodology: A Historical Introduction.

Ever since the inception of economics over two hundred years ago, the tools at the discipline's disposal have grown more and more more sophisticated. This book provides a historical introduction to the methodology of economics through the eyes of economists. The story begins with John Stuart Mill's seminal essay from 1836 on the definition and method of political economy, which is then followed by an examination of how the actual practices of economists changed over time to such an extent that they not only altered their methods of enquiry, but also their self-perception as economists. Beginning as intellectuals and journalists operating to a large extent in the public sphere, they then transformed into experts who developed their tools of research increasingly behind the scenes. No longer did they try to influence policy agendas through public discourse; rather they targeted policymakers directly and with instruments that showed them as independent and objective policy advisors, the tools of the trade changing all the while. In order to shed light on this evolution of economic methodology, this book takes carefully selected snapshots from the discipline's history. It tracks the process of development through the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, analysing the growth of empirical and mathematical modelling. It also looks at the emergence of the experiment in economics, in addition to the similarities and differences between modelling and experimentation. This book will be relevant reading for students and academics in the fields of economic methodology, history of economics, and history and philosophy of the social sciences.

Mediating the Immediate – Endogenous meanings and simulated narratives in ludic spaces

The thesis discusses games and the gaming experience. It is divided into two main sections; the first examines games in general, while the second concentrates exclusively on electronic games. The text approaches games from two distinct directions by looking at both their spatiality and their narrativity at the same time. These two points of view are combined right from the beginning of the text as they are used in conceptualising the nature of the gaming experience. The purpose of the thesis is to investigate two closely related issues concerning both the field of game studies and the nature of games. In regard to studying games, the focus is placed on the juxtaposition of ludology and narratology, which acts as a framework for looking at gaming. In addition to aiming to find out whether or not it is possible to undermine the said state of affairs through the spatiality of games, the text looks at the interrelationships of games and their spaces as well as the role of narratives in those spaces. The thesis is characterised by discussing alternative points of view and its hypothetical nature. During the text, it becomes apparent that the relationship between games and narratives is strongly twofold: on one hand, the player continuously narrativizes the states the game is in while playing, while the narratives residing within the game space form their own partially separate narrative spaces, on the other. These spaces affect the conception the player has of the game states and the events taking place in the game space itself.

Al-Bīrūnī's Kitāb Sānk and Kitāb Pātanğal:A Historical and Textual Study

The historical pole of this research distinguishes differing historical and cultural contexts in which the scholar al-Bïrûnî evolved. Between the years 973 and 1017, he lived in Khwarezm (Kät and JürjänTya), Ray, and Jürjän. He also dwelt in Kabul and Ghazna, both situated on a passage between Persia and India, and travelled to some parts of early medieval India between the years 1017 and 1030. Evidence pointing to him having made actual direct observations beyond the abode of Islam remains scanty. According to his writings, only five locales emerge as having been visited by him, all situated in today's Afghanistan and Pakistan. When al-BTrunl visited these places, he encountered the society of the Indian Shähis, who followed a form of Brahmanism. Al-Bïrûnï's knowledge of Sanskrit was the result of a long process that lasted at least 30 years (1000-1030). In order to reach the level of Sanskrit that enabled him to translate several works from Sanskrit into Arabic, he needed to work with literate people well-versed in Sanskrit, who may also have had some comprehension of Arabic, and/or Persian. The textual pole of this dissertation examines the question of the relationship between al- Bïrûnï's Arabic Kitab Sank and Kitäb Pätangal - two works related to Sämkhya-Yoga - and their possible Sanskrit sources. A philological survey based on these Arabic translations and on Sämkhya-Yoga Sanskrit literature highlights that al-Bïrûnï's translations, both, are related to the classical phase in the development of these two Indian philosophical systems. Despite the early spread of Yoga and Sämkhya ideas through Sanskrit literature, it seems that between the early 11th and 16th centuries they lost vitality amongst Indian scholars. Therefore, al-Bïrûnï's translation of works related to these specific Indian philosophies in the early 11th century CE deserves attention. The second pole of this study also demonstrates that al-BTrünl's hermeneutics played an important part in his transmission of these two Indian schools of thought, as he highly transformed his source in both form and substance. This dissertation considers the question of the relationship between al-Bïrûnï's Arabic translations and their possible Sanskrit sources from the viewpoint of Translation Studies; which makes it possible to point out potential candidates for being al-Bïrûnï's original Sanskrit sources with some confidence. Overall, the Kitäb Sank and the Kitäb Pätangal represent original works of Sämkhya and Yoga, as viewed and transmitted by a Perso-Muslim scholar, rather than pure translations of Sanskrit work.

Historical Hallmarks of Anticoagulation and Antiplatelet Agents.

Thrombosis is a well known phenomenon among physicians since antiquity. A variety of peculiar agents, such as leeches and bark, were used to prevent it. Hirudin was used during the 19th century. The next eon, heparin, strepokinase, urokinase, TPA, dicumarol, warfarin, aspirin, ticlopidine, Clopidogrel, SSHA and SP54 provoked huge advances in anticoagulation. During 21st century with the use of fondaparinux, dabigatran, rivaroxaban and Ticagrelor antithrombotic prevention and therapeutic interaction entered an era of medical challenges. Although the risk after a thrombotic episode is now highly reduced, blood clots still present damaging or even lethal consequences in human organisms and further research is strongly recommended.