Heterogeneous life-cycle profiles, income risk and consumption inequality

Was the increase in income inequality in the US due to permanent shocks or merely to an increase in the variance of transitory shocks? The implications for consumption and welfare depend crucially on the answer to this question. We use CEX repeated cross-section data on consumption and income to decompose idiosyncratic changes in income into predictable life-cycle changes, transitory and permanent shocks and estimate the contribution of each to total inequality. Our model fits the joint evolution of consumption and income inequality well and delivers two main results. First, we find that permanent changes in income explain all of the increase in inequality in the 1980s and 90s. Second, we reconcile this finding with the fact that consumption inequality did not increase much over this period. Our results support the view that many permanent changes in income are predictable for consumers, even if they look unpredictable to the econometrician, consistent withmodels of heterogeneous income profiles.

Overconfidence and market efficiency with heterogeneous agents

We study financial markets in which both rational and overconfident agents coexist and make endogenous information acquisition decisions. We demonstrate the following irrelevance result: when a positive fraction of rational agents (endogeneously) decides to become informed in equilibrium, prices are set as if all investors were rational, and as a consequence the overconfidence bias does not aect informational efficiency, price volatility, rational traders expected profits or their welfare. Intuitively, as overconfidence goes up, so does price infornativeness, which makes rational agents cut their information acquisition activities, effectively undoing the standard effect of more aggressive trading by the overconfident.

Solving heterogeneous-agent models by projection and perturbation

The paper proposes a numerical solution method for general equilibrium models with a continuum of heterogeneous agents, which combines elements of projection and of perturbation methods. The basic idea is to solve first for the stationary solutionof the model, without aggregate shocks but with fully specified idiosyncratic shocks. Afterwards one computes a first-order perturbation of the solution in the aggregate shocks. This approach allows to include a high-dimensional representation of the cross-sectional distribution in the state vector. The method is applied to a model of household saving with uninsurable income risk and liquidity constraints. The model includes not only productivity shocks, but also shocks to redistributive taxation, which cause substantial short-run variation in the cross-sectional distribution of wealth. If those shocks are operative, it is shown that a solution method based on very few statistics of the distribution is not suitable, while the proposed method can solve the model with high accuracy, at least for the case of small aggregate shocks. Techniques are discussed to reduce the dimension of the state space such that higher order perturbations are feasible.Matlab programs to solve the model can be downloaded.

Neural control of vascular reactions: impact of emotion and attention.

This study investigated the neural regions involved in blood pressure reactions to negative stimuli and their possible modulation by attention. Twenty-four healthy human subjects (11 females; age = 24.75 ± 2.49 years) participated in an affective perceptual load task that manipulated attention to negative/neutral distractor pictures. fMRI data were collected simultaneously with continuous recording of peripheral arterial blood pressure. A parametric modulation analysis examined the impact of attention and emotion on the relation between neural activation and blood pressure reactivity during the task. When attention was available for processing the distractor pictures, negative pictures resulted in behavioral interference, neural activation in brain regions previously related to emotion, a transient decrease of blood pressure, and a positive correlation between blood pressure response and activation in a network including prefrontal and parietal regions, the amygdala, caudate, and mid-brain. These effects were modulated by attention; behavioral and neural responses to highly negative distractor pictures (compared with neutral pictures) were smaller or diminished, as was the negative blood pressure response when the central task involved high perceptual load. Furthermore, comparing high and low load revealed enhanced activation in frontoparietal regions implicated in attention control. Our results fit theories emphasizing the role of attention in the control of behavioral and neural reactions to irrelevant emotional distracting information. Our findings furthermore extend the function of attention to the control of autonomous reactions associated with negative emotions by showing altered blood pressure reactions to emotional stimuli, the latter being of potential clinical relevance.

Evolution in heterogeneous populations: from migration models to fixation probabilities.

Although dispersal is recognized as a key issue in several fields of population biology (such as behavioral ecology, population genetics, metapopulation dynamics or evolutionary modeling), these disciplines focus on different aspects of the concept and often make different implicit assumptions regarding migration models. Using simulations, we investigate how such assumptions translate into effective gene flow and fixation probability of selected alleles. Assumptions regarding migration type (e.g. source-sink, resident pre-emption, or balanced dispersal) and patterns (e.g. stepping-stone versus island dispersal) have large impacts when demes differ in sizes or selective pressures. The effects of fragmentation, as well as the spatial localization of newly arising mutations, also strongly depend on migration type and patterns. Migration rate also matters: depending on the migration type, fixation probabilities at an intermediate migration rate may lie outside the range defined by the low- and high-migration limits when demes differ in sizes. Given the extreme sensitivity of fixation probability to characteristics of dispersal, we underline the importance of making explicit (and documenting empirically) the crucial ecological/ behavioral assumptions underlying migration models.

Quantitative comparison of simulations of seismic wave propagation in heterogeneous poro-elastic media involving fluid-solid interfaces and in equivalent visco-elastic solids

There is increasing evidence to suggest that the presence of mesoscopic heterogeneities constitutes the predominant attenuation mechanism at seismic frequencies. As a consequence, centimeter-scale perturbations of the subsurface physical properties should be taken into account for seismic modeling whenever detailed and accurate responses of the target structures are desired. This is, however, computationally prohibitive since extremely small grid spacings would be necessary. A convenient way to circumvent this problem is to use an upscaling procedure to replace the heterogeneous porous media by equivalent visco-elastic solids. In this work, we solve Biot's equations of motion to perform numerical simulations of seismic wave propagation through porous media containing mesoscopic heterogeneities. We then use an upscaling procedure to replace the heterogeneous poro-elastic regions by homogeneous equivalent visco-elastic solids and repeat the simulations using visco-elastic equations of motion. We find that, despite the equivalent attenuation behavior of the heterogeneous poro-elastic medium and the equivalent visco-elastic solid, the seismograms may differ due to diverging boundary conditions at fluid-solid interfaces, where there exist additional options for the poro-elastic case. In particular, we observe that the seismograms agree for closed-pore boundary conditions, but differ significantly for open-pore boundary conditions. This is an interesting result, which has potentially important implications for wave-equation-based algorithms in exploration geophysics involving fluid-solid interfaces, such as, for example, wave field decomposition.

Learning and adaptation in physical heterogeneous teams of robots

In this paper we present a novel approach to assigning roles to robots in a team of physical heterogeneous robots. Its members compete for these roles and get rewards for them. The rewards are used to determine each agent’s preferences and which agents are better adapted to the environment. These aspects are included in the decision making process. Agent interactions are modelled using the concept of an ecosystem in which each robot is a species, resulting in emergent behaviour of the whole set of agents. One of the most important features of this approach is its high adaptability. Unlike some other learning techniques, this approach does not need to start a whole exploitation process when the environment changes. All this is exemplified by means of experiments run on a simulator. In addition, the algorithm developed was applied as applied to several teams of robots in order to analyse the impact of heterogeneity in these systems

Pharmacovigilance in pregnancy: adverse drug reactions associated with fetal disorders.

Abstract Objective: To provide the first update on drug safety profiles and adverse drug reactions (ADRs) associated with fetal disorders from the Swiss national ADR database. Methods: We conducted a retrospective study using data from 202 pharmacovigilance reports on drug-associated fetal disorders from the Swiss national ADR database from 1990 to 2009. Evaluated aspects included administrative information on the report, drug exposure, and disorders. Results: The ADR reporting frequency on the topic of fetal disorders has increased during the last 20 years, from only 1 report in 1991 to a maximum of 31 reports in 2008. Nervous system drugs were the most frequently reported drug group (40.2%) above all antidepressants and antiepileptics. The highest level of overall drug intake could be observed for the 1st trimester (85.4%), especially for the first 6 weeks of pregnancy. The most frequently reported types of fetal disorders were malformations (68.8%), especially those of the musculoskeletal and circulatory systems. A positive association was discovered between antiepileptics and malformations in general and in particular of the circulatory system and the eye, ear, face, and neck. Conclusions: The results suggest that the nervous system drug group bears an especially high risk for malformations. The most commonly identified drug exposures can help focus pharmacoepidemiologic efforts in drug-induced birth defects.

Adverse reactions to biologic agents and their medical management.

Biologic agents have substantially advanced the treatment of immunological disorders, including chronic inflammatory and autoimmune diseases. However, these drugs are often associated with adverse events (AEs), including allergic, immunological and other unwanted reactions. AEs can affect almost any organ or system in the body and can occur immediately, within minutes to hours, or with a delay of several days or more after initiation of biologic therapy. Although some AEs are a direct consequence of the functional inhibition of biologic-agent-targeted antigens, the pathogenesis of other AEs results from a drug-induced imbalance of the immune system, intermediary factors and cofactors, a complexity that complicates their prediction. Herein, we review the AEs associated with biologic therapy most relevant to rheumatic and immunological diseases, and discuss their underlying pathogenesis. We also include our recommendations for the medical management of such AEs. Increased understanding and improved risk management of AEs induced by biologic agents will enable better use of these versatile immune-response modifiers.

Age and adverse drug reactions from psychopharmacological treatment: Data from the AMSP drug surveillance programme in Switzerland.

QUESTION UNDER STUDY: The frequency of severe adverse drug reactions (ADRs) from psychotropic drugs was investigated in hospitalised psychiatric patients in relation to their age. Specifically, the incidence of ADRs in patients up to 60 years was compared to that of patients older than 60 years. METHODS: Prescription rates of psychotropic drugs and reports of severe ADRs were collected in psychiatric hospitals in Switzerland between 2001 and 2010. The data stem from the drug surveillance programme AMSP. RESULTS: A total of 699 patients exhibited severe ADRs: 517 out of 28,282 patients up to 60 years (1.8%); 182 out of 11,446 elderly patients (1.6%, ns). Logistic regression analyses showed a significantly negative relationship between the incidence of ADRs and patients' age in general and in particular for weight gain, extrapyramidal motor system (EPMS) symptoms, increased liver enzymes and galactorrhoea. A significantly negative relationship was observed for age and the dosages of olanzapine, quetiapine, risperidone, valproic acid and lamotrigine. When comparing age groups, frequency of ADRs was lower in general for antipsychotic drugs and anticonvulsants, in particular for valproic acid in the elderly. Weight gain was found to be lower in the elderly for antipsychotic drugs, in particular for olanzapine. For the group of mood-stabilising anticonvulsants (carbamazepine, lamotrigine and valproic acid) the elderly exhibited a lower incidence of reported allergic skin reactions. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that for psychiatric inpatients the incidence of common severe ADRs (e.g., weight gain or EPMS symptoms) arising from psychotropic medication decreases with the age of patients.

Parental post-traumatic reactions after premature birth: implications for sleeping and eating problems in the infant.

BACKGROUND: Progress in perinatal medicine has made it possible to increase the survival of very or extremely low birthweight infants. Developmental outcomes of surviving preterm infants have been analysed at the paediatric, neurological, cognitive, and behavioural levels, and a series of perinatal and environmental risk factors have been identified. The threat to the child's survival and invasive medical procedures can be very traumatic for the parents. Few empirical reports have considered post-traumatic stress reactions of the parents as a possible variable affecting a child's outcome. Some studies have described sleeping and eating problems as related to prematurity; these problems are especially critical for the parents. OBJECTIVE: To examine the effects of post-traumatic reactions of the parents on sleeping and eating problems of the children. DESIGN: Fifty families with a premature infant (25-33 gestation weeks) and a control group of 25 families with a full term infant participated in the study. Perinatal risks were evaluated during the hospital stay. Mothers and fathers were interviewed when their children were 18 months old about the child's problems and filled in a perinatal post-traumatic stress disorder questionnaire (PPQ). RESULTS: The severity of the perinatal risks only partly predicts a child's problems. Independently of the perinatal risks, the intensity of the post-traumatic reactions of the parents is an important predictor of these problems. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that the parental response to premature birth mediates the risks of later adverse outcomes. Preventive intervention should be promoted.

Rate, type, and cost of adverse drug reactions in emergency department admissions.

Background: Adverse drug reactions (ADRs) are a threat to patients' health and quality of life, and can generate significant expenses. They are generally underreported, with different rates in different health care systems. Methods: We conducted a 6-month survey of all primary admissions to the medical emergency department of a university hospital and assessed the rate, characteristics, avoidability, and marginal costs of ADRs. Results: A total of 7% of all admissions were mainly caused by ADRs. The most frequent were gastrointestinal bleeding (22.3%) and febrile neutropenia (14.4%). Anticancer drugs were involved in 22.7% of the cases, and anticoagulants, analgesics, and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs in 8% each. Physicians had prescribed 70% of these drugs. Patients were predominantly treated in intermediate care units and ordinary wards. The mean cost per case amounted to CHF 3586+/-342, or a total of CHF 821204 over the 6-month-period (1 CHF=0.56 US$=0.87 Euro). A total of 67% were considered definitely imputable to drug effects and 32% were retrospectively regarded as avoidable. Conclusions: Interventions aimed at reducing the incidence of ADRs should be directed towards both patient education and physician training. This could save hospitals admissions and money, and could be used as an indicator of prescription quality.

Antigen binding properties of purified immunoglobulin A and reconstituted secretory immunoglobulin A antibodies.

The hybridoma cell line ZAC3 expresses Vibrio cholerae lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-specific mouse IgA molecules as a heterogeneous population of monomeric (IgAm), dimeric (IgAd), and polymeric (IgAp) forms. We describe a gentle method combining ultrafiltration, ion-exchange chromatography, and size exclusion chromatography for the simultaneous and qualitative separation of the three molecular forms. Milligram quantities of purified IgA molecules were recovered allowing for direct comparison of the biological properties of the three forms. LPS binding specificity was tested after purification; IgAd and IgAp were found to bind strongly to LPS whereas IgAm did not. Secretory IgA (sIgA) could be reconstituted in vitro by combining recombinant secretory component (rSC) and purified IgAd or IgAp, but not IgAm. Surface plasmon resonance-based binding experiments using LPS monolayers indicated that purified reconstituted sIgA and IgA molecules recognize LPS with identical affinity (KA 1.0 x 10(8)M-1). Thus, this very sensitive assay provides the first evidence that the function of SC in sIgA complex is not to modify the affinity for the antigen. KA falls to 6.6 x 10(5) M-1 when measured by calorimetry using detergent-solubilized LPS and IgA, suggesting that the LPS environment is critical for recognition by the antibody.

Heterogeneous discounting in consumption-investment problems. Time consistent solutions

[cat] En aquest treball s'analitza un model estocàstic en temps continu en el que l'agent decisor descompta les utilitats instantànies i la funció final amb taxes de preferència temporal constants però diferents. En aquest context es poden modelitzar problemes en els quals, quan el temps s'acosta al moment final, la valoració de la funció final incrementa en comparació amb les utilitats instantànies. Aquest tipus d'asimetria no es pot descriure ni amb un descompte estàndard ni amb un variable. Per tal d'obtenir solucions consistents temporalment es deriva l'equació de programació dinàmica estocàstica, les solucions de la qual són equilibris Markovians. Per a aquest tipus de preferències temporals, s'estudia el model clàssic de consum i inversió (Merton, 1971) per a les funcions d'utilitat del tipus CRRA i CARA, comparant els equilibris Markovians amb les solucions inconsistents temporalment. Finalment es discuteix la introducció del temps final aleatori.