How the full opening of the capital account to highly liquid financial markets led Latin America to two and a half cycles of ‘mania, panic and crash’

Latin America has recently experienced three cycles of capital inflows, the first two ending in major financial crises. The first took place between 1973 and the 1982 ‘debt-crisis’. The second took place between the 1989 ‘Brady bonds’ agreement (and the beginning of the economic reforms and financial liberalisation that followed) and the Argentinian 2001/2002 crisis, and ended up with four major crises (as well as the 1997 one in East Asia) — Mexico (1994), Brazil (1999), and two in Argentina (1995 and 2001/2). Finally, the third inflow-cycle began in 2003 as soon as international financial markets felt reassured by the surprisingly neo-liberal orientation of President Lula’s government; this cycle intensified in 2004 with the beginning of a (purely speculative) commodity price-boom, and actually strengthened after a brief interlude following the 2008 global financial crash — and at the time of writing (mid-2011) this cycle is still unfolding, although already showing considerable signs of distress. The main aim of this paper is to analyse the financial crises resulting from this second cycle (both in LA and in East Asia) from the perspective of Keynesian/ Minskyian/ Kindlebergian financial economics. I will attempt to show that no matter how diversely these newly financially liberalised Developing Countries tried to deal with the absorption problem created by the subsequent surges of inflow (and they did follow different routes), they invariably ended up in a major crisis. As a result (and despite the insistence of mainstream analysis), these financial crises took place mostly due to factors that were intrinsic (or inherent) to the workings of over-liquid and under-regulated financial markets — and as such, they were both fully deserved and fairly predictable. Furthermore, these crises point not just to major market failures, but to a systemic market failure: evidence suggests that these crises were the spontaneous outcome of actions by utility-maximising agents, freely operating in friendly (‘light-touch’) regulated, over-liquid financial markets. That is, these crises are clear examples that financial markets can be driven by buyers who take little notice of underlying values — i.e., by investors who have incentives to interpret information in a biased fashion in a systematic way. Thus, ‘fat tails’ also occurred because under these circumstances there is a high likelihood of self-made disastrous events. In other words, markets are not always right — indeed, in the case of financial markets they can be seriously wrong as a whole. Also, as the recent collapse of ‘MF Global’ indicates, the capacity of ‘utility-maximising’ agents operating in (excessively) ‘friendly-regulated’ and over-liquid financial market to learn from previous mistakes seems rather limited.

How the full opening of the capital account to highly liquid financial markets led Latin America to two and a half cycles of ‘mania, panic and crash’

Latin America has recently experienced three cycles of capital inflows, the first two ending in major financial crises. The first took place between 1973 and the 1982 ‘debt-crisis’. The second took place between the 1989 ‘Brady bonds’ agreement (and the beginning of the economic reforms and financial liberalisation that followed) and the Argentinian 2001/2002 crisis, and ended up with four major crises (as well as the 1997 one in East Asia) — Mexico (1994), Brazil (1999), and two in Argentina (1995 and 2001/2). Finally, the third inflow-cycle began in 2003 as soon as international financial markets felt reassured by the surprisingly neo-liberal orientation of President Lula’s government; this cycle intensified in 2004 with the beginning of a (purely speculative) commodity price-boom, and actually strengthened after a brief interlude following the 2008 global financial crash — and at the time of writing (mid-2011) this cycle is still unfolding, although already showing considerable signs of distress. The main aim of this paper is to analyse the financial crises resulting from this second cycle (both in LA and in East Asia) from the perspective of Keynesian/ Minskyian/ Kindlebergian financial economics. I will attempt to show that no matter how diversely these newly financially liberalised Developing Countries tried to deal with the absorption problem created by the subsequent surges of inflow (and they did follow different routes), they invariably ended up in a major crisis. As a result (and despite the insistence of mainstream analysis), these financial crises took place mostly due to factors that were intrinsic (or inherent) to the workings of over-liquid and under-regulated financial markets — and as such, they were both fully deserved and fairly predictable. Furthermore, these crises point not just to major market failures, but to a systemic market failure: evidence suggests that these crises were the spontaneous outcome of actions by utility-maximising agents, freely operating in friendly (light-touched) regulated, over-liquid financial markets. That is, these crises are clear examples that financial markets can be driven by buyers who take little notice of underlying values — investors have incentives to interpret information in a biased fashion in a systematic way. ‘Fat tails’ also occurred because under these circumstances there is a high likelihood of self-made disastrous events. In other words, markets are not always right — indeed, in the case of financial markets they can be seriously wrong as a whole. Also, as the recent collapse of ‘MF Global’ indicates, the capacity of ‘utility-maximising’ agents operating in unregulated and over-liquid financial market to learn from previous mistakes seems rather limited.

Half-sib progenies evaluation in velvet grass

O capim-lanudo (Holcus lanatus L.) possui grande potencial de utilização como pastagem de inverno nas regiões subtropicais, devido a seu bom estabelecimento, persistência, produção, resistência ao frio, palatabilidade e capacidade de afilhamento. O objetivo deste trabalho foi estimar a variabilidade genética e a herdabilidade de caracteres agronômicos e identificar progênies superiores. Foram avaliadas 60 progênies de meios-irmãos, para altura (NH) e diâmetro da planta na fase vegetativa, duração do ciclo vegetativo (ciclo), altura final (FH) e número de afilhos. Houve diferença entre progênies para todos os caracteres. As estimativas de herdabilidade foram de 38%, 32%, 92%, 57% e 64% para NH, diâmetro, ciclo, FH e afilhos, respectivamente. O maior ganho genético estimado foi de 30,77 % para o número de afilhos. Existe variabilidade para todos os caracteres e são esperados ganhos na seleção entre progênies.

Best site for embryo transfer: the upper or lower half of endometrial cavity?

BACKGROUND: the objective of the present study was to determine the importance of the site of embryo transfer (upper or lower half endometrial cavity) on implantation and clinical pregnancy rates. METHODS: A total of 400 transfers guided by ultrasound were randomly assigned to two groups according to the distance between the uterine fundus and the catheter tip at the time of embryo placement. Group I (n=200) consisted of transfers corresponding to a distance of <50% of the endometrial cavity length (ECL), i.e. transfer in upper half of the cavity; and group II (n=200) consisted of transfers corresponding to a distance of greater than or equal to50%, of the ECL, i.e. transfer in lower half of cavity. The Student's t-test, Mann-Whitney test and Fisher's exact test were used where appropriate. RESULTS: the general characteristics of the study population and the main transfer cycle characteristics had an equal distribution (P>0.05) between groups I and II. No significant difference in implantation or pregnancy rates was observed between groups I and II. CONCLUSION: the implantation or pregnancy rates were similar whether the embryos were deposited in the upper or lower half of the endometrial cavity.

Genetics of anthracnose panel canker disease resistance and its relationship with yield and growth characters in half-sib progenies of rubber tree (Hevea brasiliensis)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Genotypic evaluation of Dent composite (Zea mays L) half-sib progenies in late harvest crop conditions

The present work was conducted at FCAV-UNESP, Campus de Jaboticabal, in late harvest crop time of 1991. One hundred interpopulational hybrids obtained from a top-cross between Dent Composite and Flint Composite populations were evaluated. The analyzed characteristics were: Spodoptera frugiperda damages, lodging, damaged ears percentage, and productivity. Estimates of heritability, variance between progenies and genetical gain for each character of available population were determined. Estimates of the progenies variance, like those from heritability for the different analysed characters, indicate that there is an adequate genetical variance for the utilization of that material on subsequent genetic breeding programs, though allowing genetical gains, on the following selection cycles for the characteristics: grain weight, lodging and damages caused by armyworm larvae, whereas for the other characteristics the obtained results were not satisfactory.

On the hardy space H¹ on products of half-spaces

We show that the Hardy space H¹ anal (R2+ x R2+) can be identified with the class of functions f such that f and all its double and partial Hubert transforms Hk f belong to L¹ (R2). A basic tool used in the proof is the bisubharmonicity of |F|q, where F is a vector field that satisfies a generalized conjugate system of Cauchy-Riemann type.

Supersymmetry and the KdV equations for integrable hierarchies with a half-integer gradation

Supersymmetry is formulated for integrable models based on the sl(2 1) loop algebra endowed with a principal gradation. The symmetry transformations which have half-integer grades generate supersymmetry. The sl(2 1) loop algebra leads to N=2 supersymmetric mKdV and sinh-Gordon equations. The corresponding N=1 mKdV and sinh-Gordon equations are obtained via reduction induced by twisted automorphism. Our method allows for a description of a non-local symmetry structure of supersymmetric integrable models. © 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An overview on a nonideal system with three and a half degrees of freedom

The present paper studies a system comprised of two blocks connected by springs and dampers, and a DC motor with limited power supply fixed on a block, characterizing a non-ideal problem. This DC motor exciting the system causes interactions between the motor and the structure supporting it. Because of that, the non-ideal mathematical formulation of the problem has one and a half extra degree of freedom than the ideal one. A suitable choice of physical parameters leads to internal resonance conditions, that is, its natural frequencies are multiple of each other, by a known integer quantity. The purpose here is to study the dynamic behavior of the system using an analytical method based on perturbation techniques. The literature shows that the averaging method is the more flexible method concerning non-ideal problems. Summarizing, an steady state solution in amplitude and phase coordinates was obtained with averaging method showing the dependence of the structure amplitudes with the rotation frequency of the motor. Moreover, this solution shows that on of the amplitude coordinates has influence in the determination of the stationary rotation frequency. The analytical solution obtained shows the presence of the rotation frequency in expressions representing the oscillations of the structure, and the presence of amplitude coordinates in expressions describing the dynamic motion of the DC motor. These characteristics show the influence not only of the motor on structure but also of the response of the structure on dynamical behavior of the motor. Copyright © 2005 by ASME.

El comercio exterior latinoamericano en el primer semestre de 1958 = Latin American foreign trade in the first half of 1958

Incluye Bibliografía

The United Nations and ECLAC at the half-century mark of the Organization

Includes bibliography

Capital formation in Latin America: one and a half century of macroeconomic dynamics

Includes bibliography