Spatial variability and potential impacts of climate change on flood and debris flow hazard zone mapping and implications for risk management

The main goals of this study were to identifythe alpine torrent catchments that are sensitive to climatic changes and to assess the robustness of the methods for the elaboration of flood and debris flow hazard zone maps to specific effects of climate changes. In this study, a procedure for the identification and localization of torrent catchments in which the climate scenarios will modify the hazard situation was developed. In two case studies, the impacts of a potential increase of precipitation intensities to the delimited hazard zones were studied. The identification and localization of the torrent and river catchments, where unfavourable changes in the hazard situation occur, could eliminate speculative and unnecessary measures against the impacts of climate changes like a general enlargement of hazard zones or a general over dimensioning of protection structures for the whole territory. The results showed a high spatial variability of the sensitivity of catchments to climate changes. In sensitive catchments, the sediment management in alpine torrents will meet future challenges due to a higher rate for sediment removal from retention basins. The case studies showed a remarkable increase of the areas affected by floods and debris flow when considering possible future precipitation intensities in hazard mapping. But, the calculated increase in extent of future hazard zones lay within the uncertainty of the methods used today for the delimitation of the hazard zones. Thus, the consideration of the uncertainties laying in the methods for the elaboration of hazard zone maps in the torrent and river catchments sensitive to climate changes would provide a useful instrument for the consideration of potential future climate conditions. The study demonstrated that weak points in protection structures in future will become more important in risk management activities.

Dynamics of a local Alpine flooding event in October 2011: moisture source and large-scale circulation

Alpine heavy precipitation events often affect small catchments, although the circulation pattern leading to the event extends over the entire North Atlantic. The various scale interactions involved are particularly challenging for the numerical weather prediction of such events. Unlike previous studies focusing on the southern Alps, here a comprehensive study of a heavy precipitation event in the northern Alps in October 2011 is presented with particular focus on the role of the large-scale circulation in the North Atlantic/European region. During the event exceptionally high amounts of total precipitable water occurred in and north of the Alps. This moisture was initially transported along the flanks of a blocking ridge over the North Atlantic. Subsequently, strong and persistent northerly flow established at the upstream flank of a trough over Europe and steered the moisture towards the northern Alps. Lagrangian diagnostics reveal that a large fraction of the moisture emerged from the West African coast where a subtropical upper-level cut-off low served as an important moisture collector. Wave activity flux diagnostics show that the ridge was initiated as part of a low-frequency, large-scale Rossby wave train while convergence of fast transients helped to amplify it locally in the North Atlantic. A novel diagnostic for advective potential vorticity tendencies sheds more light on this amplification and further emphasizes the role of the ridge in amplifying the trough over Europe. Operational forecasts misrepresented the amplitude and orientation of this trough. For the first time, this study documents an important pathway for northern Alpine flooding, in which the interaction of synoptic-scale to large-scale weather systems and of long-range moisture transport from the Tropics are dominant. Moreover, the trapping of moisture in a subtropical cut-off near the West African coast is found to be a crucial precursor to the observed European high-impact weather.

Flood triggering in Switzerland: the role of daily to monthly preceding precipitation

Determining the role of different precipitation periods for peak discharge generation is crucial for both projecting future changes in flood probability and for short- and medium-range flood forecasting. In this study, catchment-averaged daily precipitation time series are analyzed prior to annual peak discharge events (floods) in Switzerland. The high number of floods considered – more than 4000 events from 101 catchments have been analyzed – allows to derive significant information about the role of antecedent precipitation for peak discharge generation. Based on the analysis of precipitation times series, a new separation of flood-related precipitation periods is proposed: (i) the period 0 to 1 day before flood days, when the maximum flood-triggering precipitation rates are generally observed, (ii) the period 2 to 3 days before flood days, when longer-lasting synoptic situations generate "significantly higher than normal" precipitation amounts, and (iii) the period from 4 days to 1 month before flood days when previous wet episodes may have already preconditioned the catchment. The novelty of this study lies in the separation of antecedent precipitation into the precursor antecedent precipitation (4 days before floods or earlier, called PRE-AP) and the short range precipitation (0 to 3 days before floods, a period when precipitation is often driven by one persistent weather situation like e.g., a stationary low-pressure system). A precise separation of "antecedent" and "peak-triggering" precipitation is not attempted. Instead, the strict definition of antecedent precipitation periods permits a direct comparison of all catchments. The precipitation accumulating 0 to 3 days before an event is the most relevant for floods in Switzerland. PRE-AP precipitation has only a weak and region-specific influence on flood probability. Floods were significantly more frequent after wet PRE-AP periods only in the Jura Mountains, in the western and eastern Swiss plateau, and at the outlet of large lakes. As a general rule, wet PRE-AP periods enhance the flood probability in catchments with gentle topography, high infiltration rates, and large storage capacity (karstic cavities, deep soils, large reservoirs). In contrast, floods were significantly less frequent after wet PRE-AP periods in glacial catchments because of reduced melt. For the majority of catchments however, no significant correlation between precipitation amounts and flood occurrences is found when the last 3 days before floods are omitted in the precipitation amounts. Moreover, the PRE-AP was not higher for extreme floods than for annual floods with a high frequency and was very close to climatology for all floods. The fact that floods are not significantly more frequent nor more intense after wet PRE-AP is a clear indicator of a short discharge memory of Pre-Alpine, Alpine and South Alpine Swiss catchments. Our study poses the question whether the impact of long-term precursory precipitation for floods in such catchments is not overestimated in the general perception. The results suggest that the consideration of a 3–4 days precipitation period should be sufficient to represent (understand, reconstruct, model, project) Swiss Alpine floods.

Middle to Late Holocene vegetation history of the Upper Engadine (Swiss Alps): the role of man and fire

o reconstruct the vegetation and fire history of the Upper Engadine, two continuous sediment cores from Lej da Champfèr and Lej da San Murezzan (Upper Engadine Valley, southeastern Switzerland) were analysed for pollen, plant macrofossils, charcoal and kerogen. The chronologies of the cores are based on 38 radiocarbon dates. Pollen and macrofossil data suggest a rapid afforestation with Betula, Pinus sylvestris, Pinus cembra, and Larix decidua after the retreat of the glaciers from the lake catchments 11,000 cal years ago. This vegetation type persisted until ca. 7300 cal b.p. (5350 b.c.) when Picea replaced Pinus cembra. Pollen indicative of human impact suggests that in this high-mountain region of the central Alps strong anthropogenic activities began during the Early Bronze Age (3900 cal b.p., 1950 b.c.). Local human settlements led to vegetational changes, promoting the expansion of Larix decidua and Alnus viridis. In the case of Larix, continuing land use and especially grazing after fire led to the formation of Larix meadows. The expansion of Alnus viridis was directly induced by fire, as evidenced by time-series analysis. Subsequently, the process of forest conversion into open landscapes continued for millennia and reached its maximum at the end of the Middle Ages at around 500 cal b.p. (a.d. 1450).

Bedload composition, transport and modification in rivers of Westland, New Zealand, with implications for the distribution of alluvial pounamu (jade)

River bedload surveyed at 50 sites in Westland is dominated by Alpine Schist or Torlesse Greywacke from the Alpine Fault hanging wall, with subordinate Pounamu Ultramafics or footwall-derived Western Province rocks. Tumbling experiments found ultramafics to have the lowest attrition rates, compared with greywacke sandstone and granite (which abrade to produce silt to medium-sand), or incompetent schist (which fragments). Arahura has greater total concentrations (103–105 t/km2) and proportions (5–40%) of ultramafic bedload compared with Hokitika and Taramakau catchments (101–104 t/km2, mostly <10%), matching relative areas of mapped Pounamu Ultramafic bedrock, but enriched relative to absolute areal proportions. Western Province rocks downthrown by the Alpine Fault are under-represented in the bedload. Enriched concentrations of ultramafic bedload decrease rapidly with distance downstream from source rock outcrops, changing near prominent ice-limit moraines. Bedload evolution with transport involves both downstream fining and dilution from tributaries, in a sediment supply regime more strongly influenced by tectonics and the imprint of past glaciation. Treasured New Zealand pounamu (jade) is associated with ultramafic rocks. Chances of discovery vary between catchments, are increased near glacial moraines, and are highest near source-rock outcrops in remote mountain headwaters.

Análisis de dos sistemas acuáticos : un enfoque ecohidrológico

Se aplicó el concepto de ecohidrología en dos cuencas: río Paraná Inferior y Arroyo Durazno con el objeto de estudiar las respuestas biogeoquímicas en ambos sistemas diferenciados por área de drenaje, magnitud de caudal y uso de la tierra. La primera presenta una amplia llanura aluvial (12.350 km2) vegetada por macrófitas. Durante las crecientes estivales, las condiciones favorecen la denitrificación en humedales y disminución de nitratos en cauce principal, siendo el intervalo de mayor frecuencia 25-108,3 μg N-NO3 -/l en aguas altas y 191,6-274,9 μg N-NO3 -/l en aguas bajas. Durante una creciente invernal (El Niño 1991-1992) se detectó correlación positiva significativa entre concentraciones de nitratos y amonio y altura hidrométrica. El arroyo Durazno (360 km2) no recibe aporte directo de contaminantes y presenta una rápida respuesta ante un evento de precipitación. En las primeras horas de la tormenta las concentraciones de nitratos y fósforo reactivo soluble (PRS) fueron mayores que al finalizar, debido al aporte por escorrentía. Los resultados revelan el efecto del valle aluvial sobre la hidroquímica de los cauces principales. El análisis muestra que cambios en componentes del ciclo hidrológico y/o en el uso de la tierra podrían alterar la calidad de aguas aun en cuencas de extensiones y caudales diferentes.

Composition of Quaternary and Neogene-Quaternary sedimentary rocks from the Black Sea

Processes of sedimentation in marine basins locating in the area of interaction of the largest continental plates (African and Eurasian) are under consideration in the book. During the giant tectonic reconstruction of the Tethys Ocean semi-enclosed seas - the Mediterranean and Black originated. Their sedimentary sequence contains a recording of complex history of the Alpine-Himalayan belt. The dramatic history of the seas and their feeding catchments during Cenozoic is described in detail on the base of unique material of coring and deep-sea drilling, as well as a variety of geophysical and geochemical studies. Particular attention is paid to the history of volcanism - terrestrial and underwater - with correlation of ash falls accumulated on the land and in marine sediments.

Water chemistry of lakes in Zackenbergdalen between 1997-2003, East Greenland

The ecology of arctic lakes is strongly influenced by climate-generated variations in snow coverage and by the duration of the ice-free period, which, in turn, affect the physical and chemical conditions of the lakes (Wrona et al., 2005, http://www.acia.uaf.edu/PDFs/ACIA_Science_Chapters_Final/ACIA_Ch08_Final.pdf). Most arctic lakes are characterised by a long period (8-10 months) of ice-cover, cold water and low algal biomass. The water temperature and nutrient concentrations, and most probably the nutrient input from the catchments, are closely related to the duration of snow- and ice-cover in the lakes. In years when the ice-out is late, - that is, in late July, - phytoplankton photosynthesis is limited by the lack of light and nutrients. Less food is then available to the next link in the food chain, such as copepods and daphnids, with implication on their growth rates.

Specific microbial biomarker signatures from Congo fan sediments of ODP site 175-1075, Congo soils, wetland and estuary sediments

Methane (CH4) is a strong greenhouse gas known to have perturbed global climate in the past, especially when released in large quantities over short time periods from continental or marine sources. It is therefore crucial to understand and, if possible, quantify the individual and combined response of these variable methane sources to natural climate variability. However, past changes in the stability of greenhouse gas reservoirs remain uncertain and poorly constrained by geological evidence. Here, we present a record from the Congo fan of a highly specific bacteriohopanepolyol (BHP) biomarker for aerobic methane oxidation (AMO), 35-aminobacteriohopane-30,31,32,33,34-pentol (aminopentol), that identifies discrete periods of increased AMO as far back as 1.2 Ma. Fluctuations in the concentration of aminopentol, and other 35-aminoBHPs, follow a pattern that correlates with late Quaternary glacial-interglacial climate cycles, with highest concentrations during warm periods. We discuss possible sources of aminopentol, and the methane consumed by the precursor methanotrophs, within the context of the Congo River setting, including supply of methane oxidation markers from terrestrial watersheds and/or marine sources (gas hydrate and/or deep subsurface gas reservoir). Compound-specific carbon isotope values of -30 per mil to -40 per mil for BHPs in ODP 1075 and strong similarities between the BHP signature of the core and surface sediments from the Congo estuary and floodplain wetlands from the interior of the Congo River Basin, support a methanotrophic and likely terrigenous origin of the 35-aminoBHPs found in the fan sediments. This new evidence supports a causal connection between marine sediment BHP records of tropical deep sea fans and wetland settings in the feeding river catchments, and thus tropical continental hydrology. Further research is needed to better constrain the different sources and pathways of methane emission. However, this study identifies the large potential of aminoBHPs, in particular aminopentol, to trace and, once better calibrated and understood, quantify past methane sources and fluxes from terrestrial and potentially also marine sources.

Colored dissolved organic matter (cDOM) absorption measurements in terrestrial water objects of Yamal, Yavai and Gydan Peninsula

The datasets present measurements of cDOM absorption in lakes, rivers and streams of Yamal and Gydan Peninsula area during the summer periods from 2012-2014 and 2016. In summer seasons of 2012 - 2013 water samples was collected during "Yamal-Arctic" Expedition. All of the research areas were located near the coastline of Yamal, Yavay, and Gydan Peninsula and Bely Island. In 2012 water samples from rivers, lakes and streams were taken near New Port, Cape Kamenny and Tambey settlements and in basins (water catchments) of the Sabetta, Seyakha, Yuribey (Baydaratskaya Bay, Gydan Peninsula) and Mongocheyakha rivers. In 2013 water samples from rivers, lakes and streams were taken in the Yavai Peninsula, Yayne Vong bay and in the basins (water catchments) of the Sabetta, Mongocheyakha and Yuribey (Gydan Peninsula) rivers. In 2014 lakes were sampled in the Erkuta River basin, south of Yamal Peninsula. In 2016 lakes and rivers were sampled it the Erkuta River basin and Polar Ural area. cDOM is operationally defined by the chosen filter pore size. Samples have been consistently filtrated through 0.7 µm pore size glas fibre filters. cDOM filtrates have been stored in darkness and have been measured after the expedition using the dual-beam Specord200 laboratory spectrometer (Jena Analytik) at the Otto Schmidt Laboratory OSL, Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia. The OSL cDOM protocol (Heim and Roessler, 2016) prescribes 3 Absorbance (A) measurements per sample from UV to 750 nm against ultra-pure water. The absorption coefficient, a, is calculated by a = 2.303A/L, where L is the pathlength of the cuvette [m], and the factor 2.303 converts log10 to loge. The output of the calculation is a continuous spectrum of a. The cDOM a spectra are used to determine the exponential slope value for specific wavelength ranges, S by fitting the data between min and max wavelength to an exponential function. We provide cDOM absorption coefficients for the wavelengths 254, 260, 350, 375, 400, 412, 440, 443 nm [1/m] and Slope values for three different UV, VIS, wavelength ranges: 275 to 295 nm, 350 to 400 nm, 300 to 500 nm [1/m]. All data were carried out by scientists from Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute and Saint Petersburg State University of Russia during "Yamal-Arctic" expeditions in 2012-2013, RFBR project No 14-04-10065 in 2014, No 14-05-00787 in 2016.

Daily mean surface meteorology and river discharge in Central Sulawesi for the period 2002-2005

The El Niño/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is the strongest known natural interannual climate fluctuation. The most recent two extreme ENSO events of 1982/83 and 1997/98 severley hit the socio-economy of main parts of Indonesia. As the climate variability is not homogeneous over the whole Archipelago of Indonesia, ENSO events cause negative precipitation anomalies of diverse magnitude and uration in different regions. Understanding the hydrology of humid tropical catchments is an essential prerequisite to investigate the impact of climate variability on the catchment hydrology. Together with the quantitative assessment of future water resource changes they are essential tools to develop mitigation strategies on a catchment scale. These results can be integrated into long term Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) strategies. The general objective of this study is to investigate and quantify the impact of ENSO caused climate variability on the water balance and the implications for water resources of a mesoscale tropical catchment.