Implementation study of a clinical prediction score to rule out cardiogenic chest pain in community: Cluster randomized trial

1.1 Fundamentals Chest pain is a common complaint in primary care patients (1 to 3% of all consultations) (1) and its aetiology can be miscellaneous, from harmless to potentially life threatening conditions. In primary care practice, the most prevalent aetiologies are: chest wall syndrome (43%), coronary heart disease (12%) and anxiety (7%) (2). In up to 20% of cases, potentially serious conditions as cardiac, respiratory or neoplasic diseases underlie chest pain. In this context, a large number of laboratory tests are run (42%) and over 16% of patients are referred to a specialist or hospitalized (2).¦A cardiovascular origin to chest pain can threaten patient's life and investigations run to exclude a serious condition can be expensive and involve a large number of exams or referral to specialist -­‐ often without real clinical need. In emergency settings, up to 80% of chest pains in patients are due to cardiovascular events (3) and scoring methods have been developed to identify conditions such as coronary heart disease (HD) quickly and efficiently (4-­‐6). In primary care, a cardiovascular origin is present in only about 12% of patients with chest pain (2) and general practitioners (GPs) need to exclude as safely as possible a potential serious condition underlying chest pain. A simple clinical prediction rule (CPR) like those available in emergency settings may therefore help GPs and spare time and extra investigations in ruling out CHD in primary care patients. Such a tool may also help GPs reassure patients with more common origin to chest pain.

Trabecular bone score is associated with volumetric bone density and microarchitecture as assessed by central QCT and HRpQCT in Chinese American and white women.

Although high-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HRpQCT) and central quantitative computed tomography (QCT) studies have shown bone structural differences between Chinese American (CH) and white (WH) women, these techniques are not readily available in the clinical setting. The trabecular bone score (TBS) estimates trabecular microarchitecture from dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry spine images. We assessed TBS in CH and WH women and investigated whether TBS is associated with QCT and HRpQCT indices. Areal bone mineral density (aBMD) by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, lumbar spine (LS) TBS, QCT of the LS and hip, and HRpQCT of the radius and tibia were performed in 71 pre- (37 WH and 34 CH) and 44 postmenopausal (21 WH and 23 CH) women. TBS did not differ by race in either pre- or postmenopausal women. In the entire cohort, TBS positively correlated with LS trabecular volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD) (r = 0.664), femoral neck integral (r = 0.651), trabecular (r = 0.641) and cortical vBMD (r = 0.346), and cortical thickness (C/I; r = 0.540) by QCT (p < 0.001 for all). TBS also correlated with integral (r = 0.643), trabecular (r = 0.574) and cortical vBMD (r = 0.491), and C/I (r = 0.541) at the total hip (p < 0.001 for all). The combination of TBS and LS aBMD predicted more of the variance in QCT measures than aBMD alone. TBS was associated with all HRpQCT indices (r = 0.20-0.52) except radial cortical thickness and tibial trabecular thickness. Significant associations between TBS and measures of HRpQCT and QCT in WH and CH pre- and postmenopausal women demonstrated here suggest that TBS may be a useful adjunct to aBMD for assessing bone quality.

Estimating the probability of leaving unemployment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-section data

We propose a new econometric estimation method for analyzing the probabilityof leaving unemployment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-sectiondata, which can be especially useful when panel data are not available. Theproposed method-of-moments-based estimator has two important features:(1) it estimates the exit probability at the individual level and(2) it does not rely on the stationarity assumption of the inflowcomposition. We illustrate and gauge the performance of the proposedestimator using the Spanish Labor Force Survey data, and analyze the changesin distribution of unemployment between the 1980s and 1990s during a periodof labor market reform. We find that the relative probability of leavingunemployment of the short-term unemployed versus the long-term unemployedbecomes significantly higher in the 1990s.

Optimal magnitude and probability of fines

The economic literature on crime and punishment focuses on the trade-off between probability and severity of punishment, and suggests that detection probability and fines are substitutes. In this paper it is shown that, in presence of substantial underdeterrence caused by costly detection and punishment, these instruments may become complements. When offenders are poor, the deterrent value of monetary sanctions is low. Thus, the government does not invest a lot in detection. If offenders are rich, however, the deterrent value of monetary sanctions is high, so it is more profitable to prosecute them.

Psychological pressure in competitive environments: Evidence from a randomized natural experiment

Much like cognitive abilities, emotional skills can have major effects on performance and economic outcomes. This paper studies the behavior of professionalsubjects involved in a dynamic competition in their own natural environment. Thesetting is a penalty shoot-out in soccer where two teams compete in a tournamentframework taking turns in a sequence of five penalty kicks each. As the kicking order is determined by the random outcome of a coin flip, the treatment and control groups are determined via explicit randomization. Therefore, absent any psychological effects, both teams should have the same probability of winning regardless of the kicking order. Yet, we find a systematic first-kicker advantage. Using data on 2,731 penalty kicks from 262 shoot-outs for a three decade period, we find that teams kicking first win the penalty shoot-out 60.5% of the time. A dynamic panel data analysis shows that the psychological mechanism underlying this result arises from the asymmetry in the partial score. As most kicks are scored, kicking first typically means having the opportunity to lead in the partial score, whereas kicking second typically means lagging in the score and having the opportunity to, at most, get even. Having a worse prospect than the opponent hinders subjects' performance.Further, we also find that professionals are self-aware of their own psychological effects. When a recent change in regulations gives winners of the coin toss the chance to choose the kicking order, they rationally react to it by systematically choosing to kick first. A survey of professional players reveals that when asked to explain why they prefer to kick first, they precisely identify the psychological mechanism for which we find empirical support in the data: they want to lead in the score inorder to put pressure on the opponent.

The influence of environmental conditions on immune responses, morphology and recapture probability of nestling house martins (Delichon urbica)

Nestling birds produced later in the season are hypothesized to be of poor quality with a low probability of survival and recruitment. In a Spanish population of house martins (Delichon urbica), we first compared reproductive success, immune responses and morphological traits between the first and the second broods. Second, we investigated the effects of an ectoparasite treatment and breeding date on the recapture rate the following year. Due probably to a reverse situation in weather conditions during the experiment, with more rain during rearing of the first brood, nestlings reared during the second brood were in better condition and had stronger immune responses compared with nestlings from the first brood. Contrary to other findings on house martins, we found a similar recapture rate for chicks reared during the first and the second brood. Furthermore, ectoparasitic house martin bugs had no significant effect on the recapture rate. Recaptured birds had similar morphology but higher immunoglobulin levels when nestlings compared with non-recaptured birds. This result implies that a measure of immune function is a better predictor of survival than body condition per se.

(Young Investigator Award) Trabecular Bone Score Helps Classifying Women At Risk Of Fracture Prospectively In The Ofely Study

Introduction: To determine the metabolic effect of teriparatide (TPTD) on bone, 99mTc-MDP skeletal plasma clearance was measured in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis treated with TPTD 20 μg/day. Methods: Ten postmenopausal women with osteoporosis had radionuclide bone scans at baseline, 3, and 18 months after starting TPTD 20 μg/day and after 6 months off therapy. Participants were injected with 600 MBq 99mTc- MDP and whole body bone scans acquired at 10 min, 1, 2, 3, and 4 h. Multiple blood samples were taken between 5 min and 4 h and free 99mTc-MDP measured using ultrafiltration. 99mTc-MDP plasma clearance (Kbone) was evaluated using the Patlak plot method. Regional differences in Kbone were studied by measuring the whole skeleton and subregions. Serum procollagen type I Nterminal propeptide (PINP), bone-specific alkaline phosphatase (BSAP), and urinary N-terminal telopeptide (NTX) were measured at each visit.Discussion: The median increase from baseline in whole skeleton Kbone was 22% (P=0.004) at 3 months and 34% (P= 0.002) at 18 months, decreasing to 0.7% after 6 months off therapy. In subregions, Kbone value increases were statistically significant at 3 months and in all subregions except the pelvis at 18 months. After 6 months off therapy, subregional Kbone values also returned toward baseline. Bone markers increases from baseline were statistically significant at 3 and 18 months (BSAP, 15% and 36%; PINP, 137% and 192%; NTX, 109% and 125%). After 6 months off therapy, PINP and NTX values had declined, though remained above baseline (BSAP, −3%; PINP, 43%; NTX, 56%). Increased Kbone values in the whole body and lower extremities were correlated with increases in most bone markers at 3 and 18 months. Increased skeletal uptake of 99mTc-MDP during treatment with TPTD is indicative of increased bone formation and is supported by increases in bone turnover markers.Conclusion: Changes in Kbone and skeletal uptake measured by radionuclide bone scans in patients taking TPTD are the result of metabolic activity of the drug. These data may provide physicians with useful insights when interpreting bone scan results in this population.

Heidelberg Retina Tomograph in Glaucoma Case-finding

Purpose: To compare the disease classification using optic nerve head imaging against clinical examination combined with perimetry in the case-finding environment.Methods: During a glaucoma screening event at the University Hospital in Lausanne 148 attendees opted to undergo an extended screening exam consisting of perimetry with Octopus (Haag-Streit, Koeniz, Switzerland), tonometry, gonioscopy, slit-lamp optic nerve head examination and Heidelberg Retinal Tomorgraph (HRT, Heidelberg engineering). Classification criteria of an abnormal clinical exam consisted of a cup to disc ratio > 0.6, other disc abnormality (e.g. notching), closed angles, Van Herrick < ¼ and intraocular pressure >21mmHg. In perimetry a square root loss variance (sLV) >3.0 dB was considered abnormal. Those cases with both an abnormal clinical exam and abnormal perimetric results were considered to be glaucoma suspects. An abnormal HRT exam was a global Moorfields Regression Analysis (MRA) result of "outside normal limits". The results from the worse eye for each instrument are reported.Results: The mean age of the patients was 59.9 years (SD ±14.8years). 46 subjects failed the clinical exam. 55 subjects had sLV>3.0dB. 86 subjects failed one or more of the testing components, 21 subjects failed both the clinical exam and perimetry. Two cases of advanced glaucoma were diagnosed on the day of the event. 20 subjects were referred due to other ocular pathology (10 cataract; 2 AMD; 8 other). 16 subjects were outside normal limits with the HRT, of which 11 failed the clinical exam, 9 failed the perimetric exam and 7 failed all three. HRT had a sensitivity of 33% CI [15%,57%] with a specificity of 93% CI [87%,97%].Conclusions: HRT shows good specificity, however the low sensitivity makes it of limited use in the proposed case finding scenario.

Spine Bone Texture Assessed by Trabecular Bone Score (TBS) to Evaluate Bone Health in Thalassemia Major.

Due to the increasing survival of thalassemic patients, osteopathy is a mounting clinical problem. Low bone mass alone cannot account for the high fracture risk described; impaired bone quality has been speculated but so far it cannot be demonstrated noninvasively. We studied bone quality in thalassemia major using trabecular bone score (TBS), a novel texture measurement extracted from spine dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), proposed in postmenopausal and secondary osteoporosis as an indirect index of microarchitecture. TBS was evaluated in 124 adult thalassemics (age range 19-56 years), followed-up with optimal transfusional and therapeutical regimens, and in 65 non-thalassemic patients (22-52 years) undergoing DXA for different bone diseases. TBS was lower in thalassemic patients (1.04 ± 0.12 [range 0.80-1.30]) versus controls (1.34 ± 0.11 [1.06-1.52]) (p < 0.001), and correlated with BMD. TBS and BMD values correlated with age, indicating that thalassemia negatively affects both bone quality and quantity, especially as the patient gets older. TBS was 1.02 ± 0.11 [0.80-1.28] in the osteoporotic thalassemic patients, 1.08 ± 0.12 [0.82-1.30] in the osteopenic ones and 1.15 ± 0.10 [0.96-1.26] in those with normal BMD. No gender differences were found (males: 1.02 ± 0.13 [0.80-1.30], females 1.05 ± 0.11 [0.80-1.30]), nor between patients with and without endocrine-metabolic disorders affecting bone metabolism. Our findings from a large population with thalassemia major show that TBS is a valuable tool to assess noninvasively bone quality, and it may be related to fragility fracture risk in thalassemic osteopathy.

Can the trabecular bone score (TBS) be considered as a major clinical risk factor (CRF) of osteoporotic fractures? A meta-like analysis

Abstract: To have an added value over BMD, a CRF of osteoporotic fracture must be predictable of the fracture, independent of BMD, reversible and quantifiable. Many major recognized CRF exist.Out of these factorsmany of themare indirect factor of bone quality. TBS predicts fracture independently of BMD as demonstrated from previous studies. The aim of the study is to verify if TBS can be considered as a major CRF of osteoporotic fracture. Existing validated datasets of Caucasian women were analyzed. These datasets stem from different studies performed by the authors of this report or provided to our group. However, the level of evidence of these studies will vary. Thus, the different datasets were weighted differently according to their design. This meta-like analysis involves more than 32000 women (≥50 years) with 2000 osteoporotic fractures from two prospective studies (OFELY&MANITOBA) and 7 crosssectional studies. Weighted relative risk (RR) for TBS was expressed for each decrease of one standard deviation as well as per tertile difference (TBS=1.300 and 1.200) and compared with those obtained for the major CRF included in FRAX®. Overall TBS RR obtained (adjusted for age) was 1.79 [95%CI-1.37-2.37]. For all women combined, RR for fracture for the lowest comparedwith themiddle TBS tertilewas 1.55[1.46- 1.68] and for the lowest compared with the highest TBS tertile was 2.8[2.70-3.00]. TBS is comparable to most of the major CRF (Fig 1) and thus could be used as one of them. Further studies have to be conducted to confirm these first findings.

The predictive value of trabecular bone score (TBS) on whole lumbar vertebrae mechanics: an ex vivo study.

We investigated the association of trabecular bone score (TBS) with microarchitecture and mechanical behavior of human lumbar vertebrae. We found that TBS reflects vertebral trabecular microarchitecture and is an independent predictor of vertebral mechanics. However, the addition of TBS to areal BMD (aBMD) did not significantly improve prediction of vertebral strength. INTRODUCTION: The trabecular bone score (TBS) is a gray-level measure of texture using a modified experimental variogram which can be extracted from dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images. The current study aimed to confirm whether TBS is associated with trabecular microarchitecture and mechanics of human lumbar vertebrae, and if its combination with BMD improves prediction of fracture risk. METHODS: Lumbar vertebrae (L3) were harvested fresh from 16 donors. The anteroposterior and lateral bone mineral content (BMC) and areal BMD (aBMD) of the vertebral body were measured using DXA; then, the TBS was extracted using TBS iNsight software (Medimaps SA, France). The trabecular bone volume (Tb.BV/tissue volume, TV), trabecular thickness (Tb.Th), degree of anisotropy, and structure model index (SMI) were measured using microcomputed tomography. Quasi-static uniaxial compressive testing was performed on L3 vertebral bodies to assess failure load and stiffness. RESULTS: The TBS was significantly correlated to Tb.BV/TV and SMI (râeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.58 and -0.62; pâeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.02, 0.01), but not related to BMC and BMD. TBS was significantly correlated with stiffness (râeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.64; pâeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.007), independently of bone mass. Using stepwise multiple regression models, we failed to demonstrate that the combination of BMD and TBS was better at explaining mechanical behavior than either variable alone. However, the combination TBS, Tb.Th, and BMC did perform better than each parameter alone, explaining 79 % of the variability in stiffness. CONCLUSIONS: In our study, TBS was associated with microarchitecture parameters and with vertebral mechanical behavior, but TBS did not improve prediction of vertebral biomechanical properties in addition to aBMD.

An approach for linking score and audio recordings in Makam music of Turkey

The main information sources to study a particular piece of music are symbolic scores and audio recordings. These are complementary representations of the piece and it isvery useful to have a proper linking between the two of the musically meaningful events. For the case of makam music of Turkey, linking the available scores with the correspondingaudio recordings requires taking the specificities of this music into account, such as the particular tunings, the extensive usage of non-notated expressive elements, and the way in which the performer repeats fragmentsof the score. Moreover, for most of the pieces of the classical repertoire, there is no score written by the original composer. In this paper, we propose a methodology to pair sections of a score to the corresponding fragments of audio recording performances. The pitch information obtained from both sources is used as the common representationto be paired. From an audio recording, fundamental frequency estimation and tuning analysis is done to compute a pitch contour. From the corresponding score, symbolic note names and durations are converted to a syntheticpitch contour. Then, a linking operation is performed between these pitch contours in order to find the best correspondences.The method is tested on a dataset of 11 compositions spanning 44 audio recordings, which are mostly monophonic. An F3-score of 82% and 89% are obtained with automatic and semi-automatic karar detection respectively,showing that the methodology may give us a needed tool for further computational tasks such as form analysis, audio-score alignment and makam recognition.

Ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients with chest pain: a clinical prediction score.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Chest pain raises concern for the possibility of coronary heart disease. Scoring methods have been developed to identify coronary heart disease in emergency settings, but not in primary care. METHODS: Data were collected from a multicenter Swiss clinical cohort study including 672 consecutive patients with chest pain, who had visited one of 59 family practitioners' offices. Using delayed diagnosis we derived a prediction rule to rule out coronary heart disease by means of a logistic regression model. Known cardiovascular risk factors, pain characteristics, and physical signs associated with coronary heart disease were explored to develop a clinical score. Patients diagnosed with angina or acute myocardial infarction within the year following their initial visit comprised the coronary heart disease group. RESULTS: The coronary heart disease score was derived from eight variables: age, gender, duration of chest pain from 1 to 60 minutes, substernal chest pain location, pain increases with exertion, absence of tenderness point at palpation, cardiovascular risks factors, and personal history of cardiovascular disease. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was of 0.95 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.92; 0.97. From this score, 413 patients were considered as low risk for values of percentile 5 of the coronary heart disease patients. Internal validity was confirmed by bootstrapping. External validation using data from a German cohort (Marburg, n = 774) revealed a receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.72; 0.81) with a sensitivity of 85.6% and a specificity of 47.2%. CONCLUSIONS: This score, based only on history and physical examination, is a complementary tool for ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients complaining of chest pain.

Differential vulnerability of neurochemically identified subpopulations of retinal neurons in a monkey model of glaucoma.

The vulnerability of subpopulations of retinal neurons delineated by their content of cytoskeletal or calcium-binding proteins was evaluated in the retinas of cynomolgus monkeys in which glaucoma was produced with an argon laser. We quantitatively compared the number of neurons containing either neurofilament (NF) protein, parvalbumin, calbindin or calretinin immunoreactivity in central and peripheral portions of the nasal and temporal quadrants of the retina from glaucomatous and fellow non-glaucomatous eyes. There was no significant difference between the proportion of amacrine, horizontal and bipolar cells labeled with antibodies to the calcium-binding proteins comparing the two eyes. NF triplet immunoreactivity was present in a subpopulation of retinal ganglion cells, many of which, but not all, likely correspond to large ganglion cells that subserve the magnocellular visual pathway. Loss of NF protein-containing retinal ganglion cells was widespread throughout the central (59-77% loss) and peripheral (96-97%) nasal and temporal quadrants and was associated with the loss of NF-immunoreactive optic nerve fibers in the glaucomatous eyes. Comparison of counts of NF-immunoreactive neurons with total cell loss evaluated by Nissl staining indicated that NF protein-immunoreactive cells represent a large proportion of the cells that degenerate in the glaucomatous eyes, particularly in the peripheral regions of the retina. Such data may be useful in determining the cellular basis for sensitivity to this pathologic process and may also be helpful in the design of diagnostic tests that may be sensitive to the loss of the subset of NF-immunoreactive ganglion cells.