Guidelines for WB3 Part I: Desertification and land degradation: Identification of existing and potential prevention and mitigation strategies

These guidelines are a working instrument for conducting and moderating stakeholder workshops with a participatory approach to initiate a mutual learning process among local and external stakeholders. The overall aim of the workshop is to identify promising (existing and potential) strategies for land and water conservation for the selected study site. DESIRE (Desertification Mitigation and Remediation of Land) is a European Integrated Project. The DESIRE WB 3 methodology was developed by CDE and is based on experiences from Learning for Sustainability (LforS) and WOCAT.

CONMICOM – conflict mitigation in communities: LforS learning and simulation game

Three extended families live around a lake. One family are rice farmers, the second family are vegetable farmers, and the third are a family of livestock herders. All of them depend on the use of lake water for their production, and all of them need large quantities of water. All are dependent on the use of the lake water to secure their livelihood. In the game, the families are represented by their councils of elders. Each of the councils has to find means and ways to increase production in order to keep up with the growth of its family and their demands. This puts more and more pressure on the water resources, increasing the risk of overuse. Conflicts over water are about to emerge between the families. Each council of elders must try to pursue its families interests, while at the same time preventing excessive pressure on the water resources. Once a council of elders is no longer able to meet the needs of its family, it is excluded from the game. Will the parties cooperate or compete? To face the challenge of balancing economic well-being, sustainable resource management, and individual and collective interests, the three parties have a set of options for action at hand. These include power play to safeguard their own interests, communication and cooperation to negotiate with neighbours, and searching for alternatives to reduce pressure on existing water resources. During the game the players can experience how tensions may arise, increase and finally escalate. They realise what impact power play has and how alliances form, and the importance of trust-building measures, consensus and cooperation. From the insights gained, important conflict prevention and mitigation measures are derived in a debriefing session. The game is facilitated by a moderator, and lasts for 3-4 hours. Aim of the game: Each family pursues the objective of serving its own interests and securing its position through appropriate strategies and skilful negotiation, while at the same time optimising use of the water resources in a way that prevents their degradation. The end of the game is open. While the game may end by one or two families dropping out because they can no longer secure their subsistence, it is also possible that the three families succeed in creating a situation that allows them to meet their own needs as well as the requirements for sustainable water use in the long term. Learning objectives The game demonstrates how tension builds up, increases, and finally escalates; it shows how power positions work and alliances are formed; and it enables the players to experience the great significance of mutual agreement and cooperation. During the game and particularly during the debriefing and evaluation session it is important to link experiences made during the game to the players’ real-life experiences, and to discuss these links in the group. The resulting insights will provide a basis for deducing important conflict prevention and transformation measures.

Hand in hand: public endorsement of climate change mitigation and adaptation

This research investigated how an individual’s endorsements of mitigation and adaptation relate to each other, and how well each of these can be accounted for by relevant social psychological factors. Based on survey data from two European convenience samples (N = 616 / 309) we found that public endorsements of mitigation and adaptation are strongly associated: Someone who is willing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation) is also willing to prepare for climate change impacts (adaptation). Moreover, people endorsed the two response strategies for similar reasons: People who believe that climate change is real and dangerous, who have positive attitudes about protecting the environment and the climate, and who perceive climate change as a risk, are willing to respond to climate change. Furthermore, distinguishing between (spatially) proximal and distant risk perceptions suggested that the idea of portraying climate change as a proximal (i.e., local) threat might indeed be effective in promoting personal actions. However, to gain endorsement of broader societal initiatives such as policy support, it seems advisable to turn to the distant risks of climate change. The notion that “localising” climate change might not be the panacea for engaging people in this domain is discussed in regard to previous theory and research.

A proposed framework to operationalize ESS for the mitigation of soil threats

Despite various research activities in the last decades across the world, many challenges remain to integrate the concept of ecosystem services (ESS) in decision-making, and a coherent approach to assess and value ESS is still lacking. There are a lot of different – often context-specific – ESS frameworks with their own definitions and understanding of terms. Based on a thorough review, the EU FP7 project RECARE (www.recare-project.eu) suggests an adapted framework for ecosystem services related to soils that can be used for practical application in preventing and remediating degradation of soils in Europe. This lays the foundation for the development and selection of appropriate methods to measure, evaluate, communicate and negotiate the services we obtain from soils with stakeholders in order to improve land management. Similar to many ESS frameworks, the RECARE framework distinguishes between an ecosystem and human well-being part. As the RECARE project is focused on soil threats, this is the starting point on the ecosystem part of the framework. Soil threats affect natural capital, such as soil, water, vegetation, air and animals, and are in turn influenced by those. Within the natural capital, the RECARE framework focuses especially on soil and its properties, classified in inherent and manageable properties. The natural capital then enables and underpins soil processes, while at the same time being affected by those. Soil processes, finally, are the ecosystem’s capacity to provide services, thus they support the provision of soil functions and ESS. ESS may be utilized to produce benefits for individuals and human society. Those benefits are explicitly or implicitly valued by individuals and human society. The values placed on those benefits influence policy and decision-making and thus lead to a societal response. Individual (e.g. farmers’) and societal decision making and policy determine land management and other (human) driving forces, which in turn affect soil threats and natural capital. In order to improve ESS with Sustainable Land Management (SLM) – i.e. measures aimed to prevent or remediate soil threats, the services identified in the framework need to be “manageable” (modifiable) for the stakeholders. To this end, effects of soil threats and prevention / remediation measures are captured by key soil properties as well as through bio-physical (e.g. reduced soil loss), socio-economic (e.g. reduced workload) and socio-cultural (e.g. aesthetics) impact indicators. In order to use such indicators in RECARE, it should be possible to associate the changes in soil processes to impacts of prevention / remediation measures (SLM). This requires the indicators to be sensitive enough to small changes, but still sufficiently robust to provide evidence of the change and attribute it to SLM.

Earth system commitments due to delayed mitigation

As long as global CO₂ emissions continue to increase annually, long-term committed Earth system changes grow much faster than current observations. A novel metric linking this future growth to policy decisions today is the mitigation delay sensitivity (MDS), but MDS estimates for Earth system variables other than peak temperature (ΔT max) are missing. Using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity, we show that the current emission increase rate causes a ΔT max increase roughly 3–7.5 times as fast as observed warming, and a millenial steric sea level rise (SSLR) 7–25 times as fast as observed SSLR, depending on the achievable rate of emission reductions after the peak of emissions. These ranges are only slightly affected by the uncertainty range in equilibrium climate sensitivity, which is included in the above values. The extent of ocean acidification at the end of the century is also strongly dependent on the starting time and rate of emission reductions. The preservable surface ocean area with sufficient aragonite supersaturation for coral reef growth is diminished globally at an MDS of roughly 25%–80% per decade. A near-complete loss of this area becomes unavoidable if mitigation is delayed for a few years to decades. Also with respect to aragonite, 12%–18% of the Southern Ocean surface become undersaturated per decade, if emission reductions are delayed beyond 2015–2040. We conclude that the consequences of delaying global emission reductions are much better captured if the MDS of relevant Earth system variables is communicated in addition to current trends and total projected future changes.

Decision strategies for policy decisions under uncertainties: The case of mitigation measures addressing methane emissions from ruminants

Decision strategies aim at enabling reasonable decisions in cases of uncertain policy decision problems which do not meet the conditions for applying standard decision theory. This paper focuses on decision strategies that account for uncertainties by deciding whether a proposed list of policy options should be accepted or revised (scope strategies) and whether to decide now or later (timing strategies). They can be used in participatory approaches to structure the decision process. As a basis, we propose to classify the broad range of uncertainties affecting policy decision problems along two dimensions, source of uncertainty (incomplete information, inherent indeterminacy and unreliable information) and location of uncertainty (information about policy options, outcomes and values). Decision strategies encompass multiple and vague criteria to be deliberated in application. As an example, we discuss which decision strategies may account for the uncertainties related to nutritive technologies that aim at reducing methane (CH4) emissions from ruminants as a means of mitigating climate change, limiting our discussion to published scientific information. These considerations not only speak in favour of revising rather than accepting the discussed list of options, but also in favour of active postponement or semi-closure of decision-making rather than closure or passive postponement.

Operationalizing ecosystem services for the mitigation of soil threats: A proposed framework

Despite numerous research efforts over the last decades, integrating the concept of ecosystem servicesinto land management decision-making continues to pose considerable challenges. Researchers havedeveloped many different frameworks to operationalize the concept, but these are often specific to acertain issue and each has their own definitions and understandings of particular terms. Based on acomprehensive review of the current scientific debate, the EU FP7 project RECARE proposes an adaptedframework for soil-related ecosystem services that is suited for practical application in the preventionand remediation of soil degradation across Europe. We have adapted existing frameworks by integratingcomponents from soil science while attempting to introduce a consistent terminology that is understand-able to a variety of stakeholders. RECARE aims to assess how soil threats and prevention and remediationmeasures affect ecosystem services. Changes in the natural capital’s properties influence soil processes,which support the provision of ecosystem services. The benefits produced by these ecosystem servicesare explicitly or implicitly valued by individuals and society. This can influence decision- and policymak-ing at different scales, potentially leading to a societal response, such as improved land management.The proposed ecosystem services framework will be applied by the RECARE project in a transdisciplinaryprocess. It will assist in singling out the most beneficial land management measures and in identifyingtrade-offs and win–win situations resulting from and impacted by European policies. The framework thusreflects the specific contributions soils make to ecosystem services and helps reveal changes in ecosystemservices caused by soil management and policies impacting on soil. At the same time, the framework issimple and robust enough for practical application in assessing soil threats and their management withstakeholders at various levels.

Lease Defaults and the Efficient Mitigation of Damages

The traditional law of leases imposed no duty on landlords to mitigate damages in the event of tenant breach, whereas the modern law of leases does. An economic model of leases, in which absentee tenants may or may not intend to breach, shows that the traditional rule promotes tenant investment in the property by discouraging landlord entry. In contrast, the modern rule prevents the property from being left idle by encouraging landlords to enter and re-let abandoned property. The model reflects the historic use of the traditional rule for agricultural leases, where absentee use was valuable, and the emergence of the modern rule for residential leases, where the primary use entails continuous occupation.

Contractual Difficulties in Environmental Management and the Protection of Biodiversity: The Case of Conservation and Mitigation Banking

This paper offers a principal-agent model of feasible private contracting in mitigation and conservation banking aimed at the protection of natural habitat and bio-diversity of US wetlands and uplands. It is shown that while it is straightforward to design an incentive contract, such a contract may not achieve the federally mandated objective of no net loss of habitat. This is because the minimum payment required as an economic incentive to private agents may be greater than what they should receive for the habitat values that they actually created in the field. This possible problem is shown to derive from nonconvexity in the production possibility set between the biological value of land as natural habitat and in non-habitat uses such as in urban development. The paper concludes with a consideration of several institutional devises that may promote the convergence of private contracting and the attainment of no net loss. These include the payment of subsidies, greater accuracy in the identification of actual quality by the principal, and the use of several incentive alignment devises.

(Supplemental Table 2) Plant characteristics, GHG fluxes, and soil chemical and microbial properties in experimental treatments in Alexandra Fiord

We evaluated above- and belowground ecosystem changes in a 16 year, combined fertilization and warming experiment in a High Arctic tundra deciduous shrub heath (Alexandra Fiord, Ellesmere Island, NU, Canada). Soil emissions of the three key greenhouse gases (GHGs) (carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide) were measured in mid-July 2009 using soil respiration chambers attached to a FTIR system. Soil chemical and biochemical properties including Q10 values for CO2, CH4, and N2O, Bacteria and Archaea assemblage composition, and the diversity and prevalence of key nitrogen cycling genes including bacterial amoA, crenarchaeal amoA, and nosZ were measured. Warming and fertilization caused strong increases in plant community cover and height but had limited effects on GHG fluxes and no substantial effect on soil chemistry or biochemistry. Similarly, there was a surprising lack of directional shifts in the soil microbial community as a whole or any change at all in microbial functional groups associated with CH4 consumption or N2O cycling in any treatment. Thus, it appears that while warming and increased nutrient availability have strongly affected the plant community over the last 16 years, the belowground ecosystem has not yet responded. This resistance of the soil ecosystem has resulted in limited changes in GHG fluxes in response to the experimental treatments.

A unified framework of trade in value added : physical, monetary, exchange rates, and GHG emissions

Koopman et al. (2014) developed a method to consistently decompose gross exports in value-added terms that accommodate infinite repercussions of international and inter-sector transactions. This provides a better understanding of trade in value added in global value chains than does the conventional gross exports method, which is affected by double-counting problems. However, the new framework is based on monetary input--output (IO) tables and cannot distinguish prices from quantities; thus, it is unable to consider financial adjustments through the exchange market. In this paper, we propose a framework based on a physical IO system, characterized by its linear programming equivalent that can clarify the various complexities relevant to the existing indicators and is proved to be consistent with Koopman's results when the physical decompositions are evaluated in monetary terms. While international monetary tables are typically described in current U.S. dollars, the physical framework can elucidate the impact of price adjustments through the exchange market. An iterative procedure to calculate the exchange rates is proposed, and we also show that the physical framework is also convenient for considering indicators associated with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Climate change technology transfer to developing countries: evidence analysis and policy recommendations

Developing countries are experiencing unprecedented levels of economic growth. As a result, they will be responsible for most of the future growth in energy demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Curbing GHG emissions in developing countries has become one of the cornerstones of a future international agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC). However, setting caps for developing countries’ GHG emissions has encountered strong resistance in the current round of negotiations. Continued economic growth that allows poverty eradication is still the main priority for most developing countries, and caps are perceived as a constraint to future growth prospects. The development, transfer and use of low-carbon technologies have more positive connotations, and are seen as the potential path towards low-carbon development. So far, the success of the UNFCCC process in improving the levels of technology transfer (TT) to developing countries has been limited. This thesis analyses the causes for such limited success and seeks to improve on the understanding about what constitutes TT in the field of climate change, establish the factors that enable them in developing countries and determine which policies could be implemented to reinforce these factors. Despite the wide recognition of the importance of technology and knowledge transfer to developing countries in the climate change mitigation policy agenda, this issue has not received sufficient attention in academic research. Current definitions of climate change TT barely take into account the perspective of actors involved in actual climate change TT activities, while respective measurements do not bear in mind the diversity of channels through which these happen and the outputs and effects that they convey. Furthermore, the enabling factors for TT in non-BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) developing countries have been seldom investigated, and policy recommendations to improve the level and quality of TTs to developing countries have not been adapted to the specific needs of highly heterogeneous countries, commonly denominated as “developing countries”. This thesis contributes to enriching the climate change TT debate from the perspective of a smaller emerging economy (Chile) and by undertaking a quantitative analysis of enabling factors for TT in a large sample of developing countries. Two methodological approaches are used to study climate change TT: comparative case study analysis and quantitative analysis. Comparative case studies analyse TT processes in ten cases based in Chile, all of which share the same economic, technological and policy frameworks, thus enabling us to draw conclusions on the enabling factors and obstacles operating in TT processes. The quantitative analysis uses three methodologies – principal component analysis, multiple regression analysis and cluster analysis – to assess the performance of developing countries in a number of enabling factors and the relationship between these factors and indicators of TT, as well as to create groups of developing countries with similar performances. The findings of this thesis are structured to provide responses to four main research questions: What constitutes technology transfer and how does it happen? Is it possible to measure technology transfer, and what are the main challenges in doing so? Which factors enable climate change technology transfer to developing countries? And how do different developing countries perform in these enabling factors, and how can differentiated policy priorities be defined accordingly? vi Resumen Los paises en desarrollo estan experimentando niveles de crecimiento economico sin precedentes. Como consecuencia, se espera que sean responsables de la mayor parte del futuro crecimiento global en demanda energetica y emisiones de Gases de Efecto de Invernadero (GEI). Reducir las emisiones de GEI en los paises en desarrollo es por tanto uno de los pilares de un futuro acuerdo internacional en el marco de la Convencion Marco de las Naciones Unidas para el Cambio Climatico (UNFCCC). La posibilidad de compromisos vinculantes de reduccion de emisiones de GEI ha sido rechazada por los paises en desarrollo, que perciben estos limites como frenos a su desarrollo economico y a su prioridad principal de erradicacion de la pobreza. El desarrollo, transferencia y uso de tecnologias bajas en carbono tiene connotaciones mas positivas y se percibe como la via hacia un crecimiento bajo en carbono. Hasta el momento, la UNFCCC ha tenido un exito limitado en la promocion de transferencias de tecnologia (TT) a paises en desarrollo. Esta tesis analiza las causas de este resultado y busca mejorar la comprension sobre que constituye transferencia de tecnologia en el area de cambio climatico, cuales son los factores que la facilitan en paises en desarrollo y que politicas podrian implementarse para reforzar dichos factores. A pesar del extendido reconocimiento sobre la importancia de la transferencia de tecnologia a paises en desarrollo en la agenda politica de cambio climatico, esta cuestion no ha sido suficientemente atendida por la investigacion existente. Las definiciones actuales de transferencia de tecnologia relacionada con la mitigacion del cambio climatico no tienen en cuenta la diversidad de canales por las que se manifiestan o los efectos que consiguen. Los factores facilitadores de TT en paises en desarrollo no BRIC (Brasil, Rusia, India y China) apenas han sido investigados, y las recomendaciones politicas para aumentar el nivel y la calidad de la TT no se han adaptado a las necesidades especificas de paises muy heterogeneos aglutinados bajo el denominado grupo de "paises en desarrollo". Esta tesis contribuye a enriquecer el debate sobre la TT de cambio climatico con la perspectiva de una economia emergente de pequeno tamano (Chile) y el analisis cuantitativo de factores que facilitan la TT en una amplia muestra de paises en desarrollo. Se utilizan dos metodologias para el estudio de la TT a paises en desarrollo: analisis comparativo de casos de estudio y analisis cuantitativo basado en metodos multivariantes. Los casos de estudio analizan procesos de TT en diez casos basados en Chile, para derivar conclusiones sobre los factores que facilitan u obstaculizan el proceso de transferencia. El analisis cuantitativo multivariante utiliza tres metodologias: regresion multiple, analisis de componentes principales y analisis cluster. Con dichas metodologias se busca analizar el posicionamiento de diversos paises en cuanto a factores que facilitan la TT; las relaciones entre dichos factores e indicadores de transferencia tecnologica; y crear grupos de paises con caracteristicas similares que podrian beneficiarse de politicas similares para la promocion de la transferencia de tecnologia. Los resultados de la tesis se estructuran en torno a cuatro preguntas de investigacion: .Que es la transferencia de tecnologia y como ocurre?; .Es posible medir la transferencia de tecnologias de bajo carbono?; .Que factores facilitan la transferencia de tecnologias de bajo carbono a paises en desarrollo? y .Como se puede agrupar a los paises en desarrollo en funcion de sus necesidades politicas para la promocion de la transferencia de tecnologias de bajo carbono?

Environmental analysis of residential building facades through energy consumption, GHG emissions and costs

This paper provides some results on the potential to minimize environmental impacts in residential buildings life cycle, through façade design strategies, analyzing also their impact on costs from a lifecycle perspective. On one hand, it assesses the environmental damage produced by the materials of the building envelope, and on the other, the benefits they offer in terms of habitability and liveability in the use phase. The analysis includes several design parameters used both for rehabilitation of existing facades, as for new facades, trying to cover various determinants and proposing project alternatives. With this study we intended to contribute to address the energy challenges for the coming years, trying also to propose pathways for innovative solutions for the building envelope.