A fuzzy multistage evolutionary (FUME) clustering technique

n this paper, a multistage evolutionary scheme is proposed for clustering in a large data base, like speech data. This is achieved by clustering a small subset of the entire sample set in each stage and treating the cluster centroids so obtained as samples, together with another subset of samples not considered previously, as input data to the next stage. This is continued till the whole sample set is exhausted. The clustering is accomplished by constructing a fuzzy similarity matrix and using the fuzzy techniques proposed here. The technique is illustrated by an efficient scheme for voiced-unvoiced-silence classification of speech.

A Fuzzy Approximation Scheme for Sequential Learning in Pattern Recognition

An adaptive learning scheme, based on a fuzzy approximation to the gradient descent method for training a pattern classifier using unlabeled samples, is described. The objective function defined for the fuzzy ISODATA clustering procedure is used as the loss function for computing the gradient. Learning is based on simultaneous fuzzy decisionmaking and estimation. It uses conditional fuzzy measures on unlabeled samples. An exponential membership function is assumed for each class, and the parameters constituting these membership functions are estimated, using the gradient, in a recursive fashion. The induced possibility of occurrence of each class is useful for estimation and is computed using 1) the membership of the new sample in that class and 2) the previously computed average possibility of occurrence of the same class. An inductive entropy measure is defined in terms of induced possibility distribution to measure the extent of learning. The method is illustrated with relevant examples.

A fuzzy logic based dynamic wave model inversion algorithm for canal regulation

A fuzzy logic based centralized control algorithm for irrigation canals is presented. Purpose of the algorithm is to control downstream discharge and water level of pools in the canal, by adjusting discharge release from the upstream end and gates settings. The algorithm is based on the dynamic wave model (Saint-Venant equations) inversion in space, wherein the momentum equation is replaced by a fuzzy rule based model, while retaining the continuity equation in its complete form. The fuzzy rule based model is developed on fuzzification of a new mathematical model for wave velocity, the derivational details of which are given. The advantages of the fuzzy control algorithm, over other conventional control algorithms, are described. It is transparent and intuitive, and no linearizations of the governing equations are involved. Timing of the algorithm and method of computation are explained. It is shown that the tuning is easy and the computations are straightforward. The algorithm provides stable, realistic and robust outputs. The disadvantage of the algorithm is reduced precision in its outputs due to the approximation inherent in the fuzzy logic. Feed back control logic is adopted to eliminate error caused by the system disturbances as well as error caused by the reduced precision in the outputs. The algorithm is tested by applying it to water level control problem in a fictitious canal with a single pool and also in a real canal with a series of pools. It is found that results obtained from the algorithm are comparable to those obtained from conventional control algorithms.

A fuzzy dynamic flood routing model for natural channels

A fuzzy dynamic flood routing model (FDFRM) for natural channels is presented, wherein the flood wave can be approximated to a monoclinal wave. This study is based on modification of an earlier published work by the same authors, where the nature of the wave was of gravity type. Momentum equation of the dynamic wave model is replaced by a fuzzy rule based model, while retaining the continuity equation in its complete form. Hence, the FDFRM gets rid of the assumptions associated with the momentum equation. Also, it overcomes the necessity of calculating friction slope (S-f) in flood routing and hence the associated uncertainties are eliminated. The fuzzy rule based model is developed on an equation for wave velocity, which is obtained in terms of discontinuities in the gradient of flow parameters. The channel reach is divided into a number of approximately uniform sub-reaches. Training set required for development of the fuzzy rule based model for each sub-reach is obtained from discharge-area relationship at its mean section. For highly heterogeneous sub-reaches, optimized fuzzy rule based models are obtained by means of a neuro-fuzzy algorithm. For demonstration, the FDFRM is applied to flood routing problems in a fictitious channel with single uniform reach, in a fictitious channel with two uniform sub-reaches and also in a natural channel with a number of approximately uniform sub-reaches. It is observed that in cases of the fictitious channels, the FDFRM outputs match well with those of an implicit numerical model (INM), which solves the dynamic wave equations using an implicit numerical scheme. For the natural channel, the FDFRM Outputs are comparable to those of the HEC-RAS model.

Structural Damage Detection Using Modal Curvature and Fuzzy Logic

A fuzzy logic system (FLS) with a new sliding window defuzzifier is proposed for structural damage detection using modal curvatures. Changes in the modal curvatures due to damage are fuzzified using Gaussian fuzzy sets and mapped to damage location and size using the FLS. The first four modal vectors obtained from finite element simulations of a cantilever beam are used for identifying the location and size of damage. Parametric studies show that modal curvatures can be used to accurately locate the damage; however, quantifying the size of damage is difficult. Tests with noisy simulated data show that the method detects damage very accurately at different noise levels and when some modal data are missing.

Estimation of fuzzy memberships from histograms

Based on the conclusions drawn in the bijective transformation between possibility and probability, a method is proposed to estimate the fuzzy membership function for pattern recognition purposes. A rational function approximation to the probability density function is obtained from the histogram of a finite (and sometimes very small) number of samples. This function is normalized such that the highest ordinate is one. The parameters representing the rational function are used for classifying the pattern samples based on a max-min decision rule. The method is illustrated with examples.

On the axiomatic approach to the maximum entropy principle of inference

Recent axiomatic derivations of the maximum entropy principle from consistency conditions are critically examined. We show that proper application of consistency conditions alone allows a wider class of functionals, essentially of the form ∝ dx p(x)[p(x)/g(x)] s , for some real numbers, to be used for inductive inference and the commonly used form − ∝ dx p(x)ln[p(x)/g(x)] is only a particular case. The role of the prior densityg(x) is clarified. It is possible to regard it as a geometric factor, describing the coordinate system used and it does not represent information of the same kind as obtained by measurements on the system in the form of expectation values.

Inference of the genetic architecture underlying BMI and height with the use of 20,240 sibling pairs

Evidence that complex traits are highly polygenic has been presented by population-based genome-wide association studies (GWASs) through the identification of many significant variants, as well as by family-based de novo sequencing studies indicating that several traits have a large mutational target size. Here, using a third study design, we show results consistent with extreme polygenicity for body mass index (BMI) and height. On a sample of 20,240 siblings (from 9,570 nuclear families), we used a within-family method to obtain narrow-sense heritability estimates of 0.42 (SE = 0.17, p = 0.01) and 0.69 (SE = 0.14, p = 6 x 10(-)(7)) for BMI and height, respectively, after adjusting for covariates. The genomic inflation factors from locus-specific linkage analysis were 1.69 (SE = 0.21, p = 0.04) for BMI and 2.18 (SE = 0.21, p = 2 x 10(-10)) for height. This inflation is free of confounding and congruent with polygenicity, consistent with observations of ever-increasing genomic-inflation factors from GWASs with large sample sizes, implying that those signals are due to true genetic signals across the genome rather than population stratification. We also demonstrate that the distribution of the observed test statistics is consistent with both rare and common variants underlying a polygenic architecture and that previous reports of linkage signals in complex traits are probably a consequence of polygenic architecture rather than the segregation of variants with large effects. The convergent empirical evidence from GWASs, de novo studies, and within-family segregation implies that family-based sequencing studies for complex traits require very large sample sizes because the effects of causal variants are small on average.

Location and scale mixtures of Gaussians with flexible tail behaviour: Properties, inference and application to multivariate clustering

The family of location and scale mixtures of Gaussians has the ability to generate a number of flexible distributional forms. The family nests as particular cases several important asymmetric distributions like the Generalized Hyperbolic distribution. The Generalized Hyperbolic distribution in turn nests many other well known distributions such as the Normal Inverse Gaussian. In a multivariate setting, an extension of the standard location and scale mixture concept is proposed into a so called multiple scaled framework which has the advantage of allowing different tail and skewness behaviours in each dimension with arbitrary correlation between dimensions. Estimation of the parameters is provided via an EM algorithm and extended to cover the case of mixtures of such multiple scaled distributions for application to clustering. Assessments on simulated and real data confirm the gain in degrees of freedom and flexibility in modelling data of varying tail behaviour and directional shape.

Damage assessment of structures with uncertainty by using mode-shape curvatures and fuzzy logic

Uncertainties associated with the structural model and measured vibration data may lead to unreliable damage detection. In this paper, we show that geometric and measurement uncertainty cause considerable problem in damage assessment which can be alleviated by using a fuzzy logic-based approach for damage detection. Curvature damage factor (CDF) of a tapered cantilever beam are used as damage indicators. Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is used to study the changes in the damage indicator due to uncertainty in the geometric properties of the beam. Variation in these CDF measures due to randomness in structural parameter, further contaminated with measurement noise, are used for developing and testing a fuzzy logic system (FLS). Results show that the method correctly identifies both single and multiple damages in the structure. For example, the FLS detects damage with an average accuracy of about 95 percent in a beam having geometric uncertainty of 1 percent COV and measurement noise of 10 percent in single damage scenario. For multiple damage case, the FLS identifies damages in the beam with an average accuracy of about 94 percent in the presence of above mentioned uncertainties. The paper brings together the disparate areas of probabilistic analysis and fuzzy logic to address uncertainty in structural damage detection.

On probability-based inference under data missing by design

Whether a statistician wants to complement a probability model for observed data with a prior distribution and carry out fully probabilistic inference, or base the inference only on the likelihood function, may be a fundamental question in theory, but in practice it may well be of less importance if the likelihood contains much more information than the prior. Maximum likelihood inference can be justified as a Gaussian approximation at the posterior mode, using flat priors. However, in situations where parametric assumptions in standard statistical models would be too rigid, more flexible model formulation, combined with fully probabilistic inference, can be achieved using hierarchical Bayesian parametrization. This work includes five articles, all of which apply probability modeling under various problems involving incomplete observation. Three of the papers apply maximum likelihood estimation and two of them hierarchical Bayesian modeling. Because maximum likelihood may be presented as a special case of Bayesian inference, but not the other way round, in the introductory part of this work we present a framework for probability-based inference using only Bayesian concepts. We also re-derive some results presented in the original articles using the toolbox equipped herein, to show that they are also justifiable under this more general framework. Here the assumption of exchangeability and de Finetti's representation theorem are applied repeatedly for justifying the use of standard parametric probability models with conditionally independent likelihood contributions. It is argued that this same reasoning can be applied also under sampling from a finite population. The main emphasis here is in probability-based inference under incomplete observation due to study design. This is illustrated using a generic two-phase cohort sampling design as an example. The alternative approaches presented for analysis of such a design are full likelihood, which utilizes all observed information, and conditional likelihood, which is restricted to a completely observed set, conditioning on the rule that generated that set. Conditional likelihood inference is also applied for a joint analysis of prevalence and incidence data, a situation subject to both left censoring and left truncation. Other topics covered are model uncertainty and causal inference using posterior predictive distributions. We formulate a non-parametric monotonic regression model for one or more covariates and a Bayesian estimation procedure, and apply the model in the context of optimal sequential treatment regimes, demonstrating that inference based on posterior predictive distributions is feasible also in this case.

Bayesian Inference for Retrospective Population Genetics Models Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

Genetics, the science of heredity and variation in living organisms, has a central role in medicine, in breeding crops and livestock, and in studying fundamental topics of biological sciences such as evolution and cell functioning. Currently the field of genetics is under a rapid development because of the recent advances in technologies by which molecular data can be obtained from living organisms. In order that most information from such data can be extracted, the analyses need to be carried out using statistical models that are tailored to take account of the particular genetic processes. In this thesis we formulate and analyze Bayesian models for genetic marker data of contemporary individuals. The major focus is on the modeling of the unobserved recent ancestry of the sampled individuals (say, for tens of generations or so), which is carried out by using explicit probabilistic reconstructions of the pedigree structures accompanied by the gene flows at the marker loci. For such a recent history, the recombination process is the major genetic force that shapes the genomes of the individuals, and it is included in the model by assuming that the recombination fractions between the adjacent markers are known. The posterior distribution of the unobserved history of the individuals is studied conditionally on the observed marker data by using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm (MCMC). The example analyses consider estimation of the population structure, relatedness structure (both at the level of whole genomes as well as at each marker separately), and haplotype configurations. For situations where the pedigree structure is partially known, an algorithm to create an initial state for the MCMC algorithm is given. Furthermore, the thesis includes an extension of the model for the recent genetic history to situations where also a quantitative phenotype has been measured from the contemporary individuals. In that case the goal is to identify positions on the genome that affect the observed phenotypic values. This task is carried out within the Bayesian framework, where the number and the relative effects of the quantitative trait loci are treated as random variables whose posterior distribution is studied conditionally on the observed genetic and phenotypic data. In addition, the thesis contains an extension of a widely-used haplotyping method, the PHASE algorithm, to settings where genetic material from several individuals has been pooled together, and the allele frequencies of each pool are determined in a single genotyping.

Computational Techniques for Haplotype Inference and for Local Alignment Significance

This thesis which consists of an introduction and four peer-reviewed original publications studies the problems of haplotype inference (haplotyping) and local alignment significance. The problems studied here belong to the broad area of bioinformatics and computational biology. The presented solutions are computationally fast and accurate, which makes them practical in high-throughput sequence data analysis. Haplotype inference is a computational problem where the goal is to estimate haplotypes from a sample of genotypes as accurately as possible. This problem is important as the direct measurement of haplotypes is difficult, whereas the genotypes are easier to quantify. Haplotypes are the key-players when studying for example the genetic causes of diseases. In this thesis, three methods are presented for the haplotype inference problem referred to as HaploParser, HIT, and BACH. HaploParser is based on a combinatorial mosaic model and hierarchical parsing that together mimic recombinations and point-mutations in a biologically plausible way. In this mosaic model, the current population is assumed to be evolved from a small founder population. Thus, the haplotypes of the current population are recombinations of the (implicit) founder haplotypes with some point--mutations. HIT (Haplotype Inference Technique) uses a hidden Markov model for haplotypes and efficient algorithms are presented to learn this model from genotype data. The model structure of HIT is analogous to the mosaic model of HaploParser with founder haplotypes. Therefore, it can be seen as a probabilistic model of recombinations and point-mutations. BACH (Bayesian Context-based Haplotyping) utilizes a context tree weighting algorithm to efficiently sum over all variable-length Markov chains to evaluate the posterior probability of a haplotype configuration. Algorithms are presented that find haplotype configurations with high posterior probability. BACH is the most accurate method presented in this thesis and has comparable performance to the best available software for haplotype inference. Local alignment significance is a computational problem where one is interested in whether the local similarities in two sequences are due to the fact that the sequences are related or just by chance. Similarity of sequences is measured by their best local alignment score and from that, a p-value is computed. This p-value is the probability of picking two sequences from the null model that have as good or better best local alignment score. Local alignment significance is used routinely for example in homology searches. In this thesis, a general framework is sketched that allows one to compute a tight upper bound for the p-value of a local pairwise alignment score. Unlike the previous methods, the presented framework is not affeced by so-called edge-effects and can handle gaps (deletions and insertions) without troublesome sampling and curve fitting.

An imprecise fuzzy risk approach for water quality management of a river system

Uncertainty plays an important role in water quality management problems. The major sources of uncertainty in a water quality management problem are the random nature of hydrologic variables and imprecision (fuzziness) associated with goals of the dischargers and pollution control agencies (PCA). Many Waste Load Allocation (WLA)problems are solved by considering these two sources of uncertainty. Apart from randomness and fuzziness, missing data in the time series of a hydrologic variable may result in additional uncertainty due to partial ignorance. These uncertainties render the input parameters as imprecise parameters in water quality decision making. In this paper an Imprecise Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (IFWLAM) is developed for water quality management of a river system subject to uncertainty arising from partial ignorance. In a WLA problem, both randomness and imprecision can be addressed simultaneously by fuzzy risk of low water quality. A methodology is developed for the computation of imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality, when the parameters are characterized by uncertainty due to partial ignorance. A Monte-Carlo simulation is performed to evaluate the imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality by considering the input variables as imprecise. Fuzzy multiobjective optimization is used to formulate the multiobjective model. The model developed is based on a fuzzy multiobjective optimization problem with max-min as the operator. This usually does not result in a unique solution but gives multiple solutions. Two optimization models are developed to capture all the decision alternatives or multiple solutions. The objective of the two optimization models is to obtain a range of fractional removal levels for the dischargers, such that the resultant fuzzy risk will be within acceptable limits. Specification of a range for fractional removal levels enhances flexibility in decision making. The methodology is demonstrated with a case study of the Tunga-Bhadra river system in India.