The risk of chikungunya fever in a dengue-endemic area

Background. Chikungunya, an alphavirus of the Togaviridae family, causes a febrile disease transmitted to humans by the bite of infected Aedes mosquitoes. This infection is reaching endemic levels in many Southeast Asian countries. Symptoms include sudden onset of fever, chills, headache, nausea, vomiting, joint pain with or without swelling, low back pain, and rash. According to the World Health Organization, there are 2 billion people living in Aedes-infested areas. In addition, traveling to these areas is popular, making the potential risk of infections transmitted by the bite of infected Aedes mosquitoes very high. Methods. We proposed a mathematical model to estimate the risk of acquiring chikungunya fever in an Aedes-infested area by taking the prevalence of dengue fever into account. The basic reproduction number for chikungunya fever R-0chik can be written as a function of the basic reproduction number of dengue R-0dengue by calculating the ratio R-0chik/R-0dengue. From R-0chik, we estimated the force of infection and the risk of acquiring the disease both for local residents of a dengue-endemic area and for travelers to this area. Results. We calculated that R-0chik is 64.4% that of R-0dengue. The model was applied to a hypothetical situation, namely, estimating the individual risk of acquiring chikungunya fever in a dengue-endemic area, both for local inhabitants (22% in steady state) and for visiting travelers (from 0.31% to 1.23% depending on the time spent in the area). Conclusions. The method proposed based on the output of a dynamical model is innovative and provided an estimation of the risk of infection, both for local inhabitants and for visiting travelers.

Contributions of Non-consumptive Wildlife Tourism to Conservation

Wildlife tourism has the potential to contribute to conservation through a variety of mechanisms. This chapter presents a preliminary assessment of the extent to which this potential is currently being realised, comparing tourism based on viewing of animals in captive settings (with a focus on federated zoos) with that in free-ranging situations (wildlife watching). The key mechanisms involved are: direct wildlife management and research; use of income derived from wildlife tourism to fund conservation; education of visitors to behave in a more conservation-friendly manner; political lobbying in support of conservation; and provision of a socio-economic incentive for conservation. All of these occur in at least some zoos and wildlife-watching situations, and collectively the contribution of non-consumptive wildlife tourism to conservation is significant, though impossible to quantify. The key strengths of the zoo sector in this regard are its inputs into captive breeding and its potential to educate large numbers of people. in contrast, wildlife watching provides significant socio-economic incentives for conservation of natural habitats. There seem to be significant opportunities for expanding the role of non-consumptive wildlife tourism in conservation.

A NEW ADJUSTABLE PINCH DESIGNED FOR PRODUCING CRUSH NERVE INJURIES IN THE SCIATIC NERVE OF RATS

Objective: A new adjustable pinch has been developed for producing a crush injury, with a previously known load of 5 kg, on a 5 mm-long segment of the nerve. Methods: Stainless steel was the material selected for building the pinch due its durability and possibility of sterilization with anti-septic substances, which are often corrosive. The crushing load of the pinch is adjustable by increasing or decreasing the tension of the spring by means of a screw used for calibration, which is performed by a load cell. Result: This pinch has been used in a few experimental investigations and was shown to be as efficient as both the universal testing machine and the dead weight machine, previously used. Conclusion: The developed pinch has the advantages of being portable and user-friendly. In addition, the pinch is cheap and allows for the standardization of the applied load.

Community attitudes to researchers

A non-Indigenous researcher who previously worked as a remote community nurse provides insights into how non-Indigenous researchers are viewed by non-Indigenous practitioners in those settings because in Australian Aboriginal communities most community health nurses had a cynical view of visiting researchers. These attitudes illustrate the need for the establishment of mutually fulfilling relationships with those among whom they work.

EVA mouthguards: how thick should they be?

A major consideration in the performance of mouthguards is their ability to absorb energy and reduce transmitted forces when impacted. This is especially important to participants in contact sports such as hockey or football. The thickness of mouthguard materials is directly related to energy absorption and inversely related to transmitted forces when impacted. However, wearer comfort is also an important factor in their use. Thicker mouthguards are not user-friendly. While thickness of material over incisal edges and cusps of teeth is critical, just how thick should a mouthguard be and especially in these two areas? Transmitted forces through different thicknesses of the most commonly used mouthguard material, ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) (Shore A Hardness of 80) were compared when impacted with identical forces which were capable of damaging the oro-facial complex. The constant impact force used in the tests was produced by a pendulum and had an energy of 4.4 joules and a velocity of 3 meters per second. Improvements in energy absorption and reductions in transmitted forces were observed with increasing thickness. However, these improvements lessened when the mouthguard material thickness was greater than 4 mm. The results show that the optimal thickness for EVA mouthguard material with a Shore A Hardness of 80 is around 4 mm. Increased thickness, while improving performance marginally, results in less wearer comfort and acceptance.

Age-related lifecycles - Purpose variations

By describing and discussing Australian data on outbound tourism, this paper investigates the bimodal (double peaked) lifecycle pattern predicted and observed in the literature. These theories are primarily based on demand for holiday tourism, but tourists do not just go overseas for this purpose, with visiting friends and relatives, business, convention and conference, employment and educational tourism relevant purposes also. Trips overseas by Australians are split into these groups, enabling the age-related lifecycles of each to be examined separately. Unlike holiday tourism, all other purposes are unimodal, although they vary with respect to the age groups at which they peak and their relative positions.

The limits of environmental responsibility - A stormwater case study

The motivation for concern about the environment beyond one's neighborhood is still relatively poorly understood. This article examines the determinants of feelings of responsibility at a regional watershed level. Using demographic, attitudinal, self-reported behavior and neighborhood mapping measures from four cities in Australia, five hypotheses were derived. These were that wider environmental concerns would depend on (a) the physical and social characteristics of the respondents' neighborhoods, (b) the size of their perceived neighborhoods, (c) the length of residence at their localities, (d) educational level and attitudes toward environmental moral responsibility (and the interaction between them), and (e) the level of reported environmentally friendly behavior. Support was gained for all hypotheses except length of residence and the role of general moral attitudes toward the environment. It is concluded that to explain community action at the regional level, it is important to include both spatial and psychological insights and methodologies in research.

Partial automation of database processing of simulation outputs from L-systems models of plant morphogenesis

Models of plant architecture allow us to explore how genotype environment interactions effect the development of plant phenotypes. Such models generate masses of data organised in complex hierarchies. This paper presents a generic system for creating and automatically populating a relational database from data generated by the widely used L-system approach to modelling plant morphogenesis. Techniques from compiler technology are applied to generate attributes (new fields) in the database, to simplify query development for the recursively-structured branching relationship. Use of biological terminology in an interactive query builder contributes towards making the system biologist-friendly. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of two population pharmacokinetic programs, NONMEM and P-PHARM, for tacrolimus

Objectives: To compare the population modelling programs NONMEM and P-PHARM during investigation of the pharmacokinetics of tacrolimus in paediatric liver-transplant recipients. Methods: Population pharmacokinetic analysis was performed using NONMEM and P-PHARM on retrospective data from 35 paediatric liver-transplant patients receiving tacrolimus therapy. The same data were presented to both programs. Maximum likelihood estimates were sought for apparent clearance (CL/F) and apparent volume of distribution (V/F). Covariates screened for influence on these parameters were weight, age, gender, post-operative day, days of tacrolimus therapy, transplant type, biliary reconstructive procedure, liver function tests, creatinine clearance, haematocrit, corticosteroid dose, and potential interacting drugs. Results: A satisfactory model was developed in both programs with a single categorical covariate - transplant type - providing stable parameter estimates and small, normally distributed (weighted) residuals. In NONMEM, the continuous covariates - age and liver function tests - improved modelling further. Mean parameter estimates were CL/F (whole liver) = 16.3 1/h, CL/F (cut-down liver) = 8.5 1/h and V/F = 565 1 in NONMEM, and CL/F = 8.3 1/h and V/F = 155 1 in P-PHARM. Individual Bayesian parameter estimates were CL/F (whole liver) = 17.9 +/- 8.8 1/h, CL/F (cutdown liver) = 11.6 +/- 18.8 1/h and V/F = 712 792 1 in NONMEM, and CL/F (whole liver) = 12.8 +/- 3.5 1/h, CL/F (cut-down liver) = 8.2 +/- 3.4 1/h and V/F = 221 1641 in P-PHARM. Marked interindividual kinetic variability (38-108%) and residual random error (approximately 3 ng/ml) were observed. P-PHARM was more user friendly and readily provided informative graphical presentation of results. NONMEM allowed a wider choice of errors for statistical modelling and coped better with complex covariate data sets. Conclusion: Results from parametric modelling programs can vary due to different algorithms employed to estimate parameters, alternative methods of covariate analysis and variations and limitations in the software itself.

Surgical programme at Royal Alexandra Hospital, Sydney, for Papua New Guinea children with congenital heart disease, 1978-1994

Objective : To report the history of the Royal Alexandra Hospital for Children (RAHC) Papua New Guinea (PNG) cardiac surgical programme and describe the selection, preoperative clinical features and postoperative outcome of children with congenital heart disease managed by the programme. Methods : Details for each of the PNG cardiac patients admitted to RAHC following selection by visiting cardiologists between 1978 and 1994 were entered into a database, and analysed and interpreted. Results : A congenital heart defect was confirmed in 165 of the 170 children selected. The male to female ratio was 1:1 and the mean age on admission to RAHC was 5.5 years. Almost all of the children for whom data were available (98%) had a weight for age and 41% had a height for age less than the 3rd centile. One-sixth had delayed milestones. A large number were tachypnoeic, in heart failure, or had pulmonary hypertension on admission. Ventricular septal defect and tetralogy of Fallot were the commonest defects, and lesions such as aortic stenosis, coarctation of the aorta and transposition of the great arteries were absent or rare. Thirty-one (19%) of the children selected initially did not receive surgery because of pulmonary hypertension, or because the lesions did not fall within the programme guidelines for operation. One hundred and twenty-nine children had corrective and four had palliative procedures. Half of the operated children had postoperative complications. Eight children died, all following open-heart procedures, giving a case fatality rate of 6%. Preoperative tachypnoea, hepatomegaly, cardiac failure and pulmonary hypertension were strongly associated with poor outcome. Conclusions : The programme was an arduous exercise for all organizations concerned, but achieved comparatively good short-term outcomes. The experience gained should assist in planning for similar programmes.

Knowledge-based system on optimum design of liquid retaining structures with genetic algorithms

This paper delineates the development of a prototype hybrid knowledge-based system for the optimum design of liquid retaining structures by coupling the blackboard architecture, an expert system shell VISUAL RULE STUDIO and genetic algorithm (GA). Through custom-built interactive graphical user interfaces under a user-friendly environment, the user is directed throughout the design process, which includes preliminary design, load specification, model generation, finite element analysis, code compliance checking, and member sizing optimization. For structural optimization, GA is applied to the minimum cost design of structural systems with discrete reinforced concrete sections. The design of a typical example of the liquid retaining structure is illustrated. The results demonstrate extraordinarily converging speed as near-optimal solutions are acquired after merely exploration of a small portion of the search space. This system can act as a consultant to assist novice designers in the design of liquid retaining structures.

SPAnDX: a process-based population dynamics model to explore management and climate change impacts on an invasive alien plant, Acacia nilotica

This paper describes a process-based metapopulation dynamics and phenology model of prickly acacia, Acacia nilotica, an invasive alien species in Australia. The model, SPAnDX, describes the interactions between riparian and upland sub-populations of A. nilotica within livestock paddocks, including the effects of extrinsic factors such as temperature, soil moisture availability and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. The model includes the effects of management events such as changing the livestock species or stocking rate, applying fire, and herbicide application. The predicted population behaviour of A. nilotica was sensitive to climate. Using 35 years daily weather datasets for five representative sites spanning the range of conditions that A. nilotica is found in Australia, the model predicted biomass levels that closely accord with expected values at each site. SPAnDX can be used as a decision-support tool in integrated weed management, and to explore the sensitivity of cultural management practices to climate change throughout the range of A. nilotica. The cohort-based DYMEX modelling package used to build and run SPAnDX provided several advantages over more traditional population modelling approaches (e.g. an appropriate specific formalism (discrete time, cohort-based, process-oriented), user-friendly graphical environment, extensible library of reusable components, and useful and flexible input/output support framework). (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Acoplamentos: um estudo sobre a intera????o entre humanos e computadores

Este estudo investiga a intera????o dos humanos com os computadores pessoais. A partir dos inc??modos produzidos por esses encontros, na primeira parte estuda-se a produ????o da m??quina ???amig??vel??? ??? que insinua compara????es com a mente humana ??? e seus fortes efeitos nas transforma????es culturais do final do s??culo XX. Na segunda parte do trabalho, a partir de entrevistas de trabalhadores falando sobre sua aprendizagem b??sica do uso de computadores pessoais, faz-se uma an??lise das principais concep????es sobre a rela????o homem-t??cnica que est??o influenciando a intera????o humano-computador. Com isso fica evidenciado o papel do computador na crise do sujeito moderno, e afirma-se a necessidade de se pensar a subjetividade para al??m da cl??ssica divis??o sujeito-objeto, homem m??quina, natureza-artif??cio... o que aponta para a id??ia de acoplamentos flex??veis entre humanos e computadores e pede por uma no????o de aprendizagem que acolha a cria????o de problemas como seu aspecto mais rico.

Fighting climate change in the air: lessons from the EU directive on global aviation

The European Union's (EU) decision to include aviation into the Emissions Trade Scheme was heatedly contested. Countries around the world, but mainly the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa group (BRICS) and the US, denounced the EU's initiate as illegal and unilateral. Following a decade of frustrated negotiations at the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), this paper interrogates why such measure, in principle climate-friendly, inspired so much global resentment. I argue that concerns with competitiveness and risks of legal inconsistency are important, but insufficient elements to explain the core of the conflict. The paper suggests that the EU was strongly criticized because third countries perceived this action as an imposed solution, which fostered an environment of distrust. Therefore, I claim that the problem has more to do with a normative divide than with a substantive divergence on what should be done regarding aviation emissions. My analysis is informed by the present literature on the links between trade and climate change, but gives particular weight to first-hand information through interviews with key stakeholders. The paper is divided in three parts. First, it presents the scope of the EU directive in historical perspective. Second, it explores the EU's measure through three different angles: legal, economical and political. The final part explores some possible solutions to overcome these divergences.

Ambient assisted living technology: comparative perspectives of users and caregivers

Developed societies are currently facing severe demographic changes: the world population is ageing at an unprecedented rate. This demographic trend will be also followed by an increase of people with physical limitations. New challenges are being raised to the traditional health care systems, not only in Portugal, but also in all other European states. There is an urgent need to find solutions that allow extending the time people can live in their preferred environment by increasing their autonomy, self-confidence and mobility. AAL4ALL is a project currently being developed in cooperation with 34 Portuguese interdisciplinary partners, from industry to academia, R&D and social disciplines, which employs a novel conceptual approach through the development of an ecosystem of products and services for Ambient Assisted Living (AAL) associated to a business model and validated through large scale trial. This paper presents a comparative perspective of the needs and attitudes towards technology of the AAL users and caregivers identified in the analysis of a set of three different surveys: a users survey targeted at the Portuguese seniors and pre-seniors; an informal caregivers survey targeted at the family, friends and neighbours who provide care without any financial compensation; and a formal caregivers survey targeted at physicians, nurses,psychologists, social workers, and direct-care workers providing care to elders. The first results indicate that AAL solutions must be affordable,user friendly and have a true perceived benefit to their users.