A Phase Space Box-counting based Method for Arrhythmia Prediction from Electrocardiogram Time Series

Arrhythmia is one kind of cardiovascular diseases that give rise to the number of deaths and potentially yields immedicable danger. Arrhythmia is a life threatening condition originating from disorganized propagation of electrical signals in heart resulting in desynchronization among different chambers of the heart. Fundamentally, the synchronization process means that the phase relationship of electrical activities between the chambers remains coherent, maintaining a constant phase difference over time. If desynchronization occurs due to arrhythmia, the coherent phase relationship breaks down resulting in chaotic rhythm affecting the regular pumping mechanism of heart. This phenomenon was explored by using the phase space reconstruction technique which is a standard analysis technique of time series data generated from nonlinear dynamical system. In this project a novel index is presented for predicting the onset of ventricular arrhythmias. Analysis of continuously captured long-term ECG data recordings was conducted up to the onset of arrhythmia by the phase space reconstruction method, obtaining 2-dimensional images, analysed by the box counting method. The method was tested using the ECG data set of three different kinds including normal (NR), Ventricular Tachycardia (VT), Ventricular Fibrillation (VF), extracted from the Physionet ECG database. Statistical measures like mean (μ), standard deviation (σ) and coefficient of variation (σ/μ) for the box-counting in phase space diagrams are derived for a sliding window of 10 beats of ECG signal. From the results of these statistical analyses, a threshold was derived as an upper bound of Coefficient of Variation (CV) for box-counting of ECG phase portraits which is capable of reliably predicting the impeding arrhythmia long before its actual occurrence. As future work of research, it was planned to validate this prediction tool over a wider population of patients affected by different kind of arrhythmia, like atrial fibrillation, bundle and brunch block, and set different thresholds for them, in order to confirm its clinical applicability.

Bayesian space-time data fusion for real-time forecasting and map uncertainty

Environmental computer models are deterministic models devoted to predict several environmental phenomena such as air pollution or meteorological events. Numerical model output is given in terms of averages over grid cells, usually at high spatial and temporal resolution. However, these outputs are often biased with unknown calibration and not equipped with any information about the associated uncertainty. Conversely, data collected at monitoring stations is more accurate since they essentially provide the true levels. Due the leading role played by numerical models, it now important to compare model output with observations. Statistical methods developed to combine numerical model output and station data are usually referred to as data fusion. In this work, we first combine ozone monitoring data with ozone predictions from the Eta-CMAQ air quality model in order to forecast real-time current 8-hour average ozone level defined as the average of the previous four hours, current hour, and predictions for the next three hours. We propose a Bayesian downscaler model based on first differences with a flexible coefficient structure and an efficient computational strategy to fit model parameters. Model validation for the eastern United States shows consequential improvement of our fully inferential approach compared with the current real-time forecasting system. Furthermore, we consider the introduction of temperature data from a weather forecast model into the downscaler, showing improved real-time ozone predictions. Finally, we introduce a hierarchical model to obtain spatially varying uncertainty associated with numerical model output. We show how we can learn about such uncertainty through suitable stochastic data fusion modeling using some external validation data. We illustrate our Bayesian model by providing the uncertainty map associated with a temperature output over the northeastern United States.

Ecological distribution of semi-demersal fishes in space and time on the shelf of Antalya Gulf

In this study we provide a baseline data on semidemersal fish assemblages and biology in a heterogeneous and yet less studied portion of the shelf of Antalya Gulf. The distribution of fish abundance in three transects subjected to different fisheries regulations (fishery vs non fishery areas), and including depths of 10, 25, 75, 125, 200 m, was studied between May 2014 and February 2015 in representative months of winter, spring, summer and autumn seasons. A total of 76 fish species belonging to 40 families was collected and semidemersal species distribution was analyzed in comparison with the whole community. Spatial distribution of fish was driven mainly by depth and two main assemblages were observed: shallow waters (10-25; 75 m) and deep waters (125-200 m). Significant differences among transects were found for the whole community but not for the semidemersal species. Analysis showed that this was due to a strong relation of these species with local environmental characteristics rather than to a different fishing pressure over transects. Firstly all species distribute according to the bathymetrical gradient and secondly to the bottom type structure. Semidemersal species were then found more related to zooplankton and suspended matter availability. The main morphological characteristics, sex and size distribution of the target semidemersal species Spicara smaris (Linnaeus, 1758), Saurida undosquamis (Richardson, 1848), Pagellus acarne (Risso, 1827) were also investigated.

Four-window technique for measuring optical-phase-space-time-frequency tomography

A new approach, the four-window technique, was developed to measure optical phase-space-time-frequency tomography (OPSTFT). The four-window technique is based on balanced heterodyne detection with two local oscillator (LO) fields. This technique can provide independent control of position, momentum, time and frequency resolution. The OPSTFT is a Wigner distribution function of two independent Fourier transform pairs, phase-space and time-frequency. The OPSTFT can be applied for early disease detection.

A Nonstationary Space-Time Gaussian Process Model for Partially Converged Simulations

In the context of expensive numerical experiments, a promising solution for alleviating the computational costs consists of using partially converged simulations instead of exact solutions. The gain in computational time is at the price of precision in the response. This work addresses the issue of fitting a Gaussian process model to partially converged simulation data for further use in prediction. The main challenge consists of the adequate approximation of the error due to partial convergence, which is correlated in both design variables and time directions. Here, we propose fitting a Gaussian process in the joint space of design parameters and computational time. The model is constructed by building a nonstationary covariance kernel that reflects accurately the actual structure of the error. Practical solutions are proposed for solving parameter estimation issues associated with the proposed model. The method is applied to a computational fluid dynamics test case and shows significant improvement in prediction compared to a classical kriging model.

Signalling ballet in space and time.

Although we have amassed extensive catalogues of signalling network components, our understanding of the spatiotemporal control of emergent network structures has lagged behind. Dynamic behaviour is starting to be explored throughout the genome, but analysis of spatial behaviours is still confined to individual proteins. The challenge is to reveal how cells integrate temporal and spatial information to determine specific biological functions. Key findings are the discovery of molecular signalling machines such as Ras nanoclusters, spatial activity gradients and flexible network circuitries that involve transcriptional feedback. They reveal design principles of spatiotemporal organization that are crucial for network function and cell fate decisions.