Incorporating technology buying behaviour into UK-based long term domestic stock energy models to provide improved policy analysis

The UK has a target for an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 from a 1990 base. Domestic energy use accounts for around 30% of total emissions. This paper presents a comprehensive review of existing models and modelling techniques and indicates how they might be improved by considering individual buying behaviour. Macro (top-down) and micro (bottom-up) models have been reviewed and analysed. It is found that bottom-up models can project technology diffusion due to their higher resolution. The weakness of existing bottom-up models at capturing individual green technology buying behaviour has been identified. Consequently, Markov chains, neural networks and agent-based modelling are proposed as possible methods to incorporate buying behaviour within a domestic energy forecast model. Among the three methods, agent-based models are found to be the most promising, although a successful agent approach requires large amounts of input data. A prototype agent-based model has been developed and tested, which demonstrates the feasibility of an agent approach. This model shows that an agent-based approach is promising as a means to predict the effectiveness of various policy measures.

Balance model for equatorial long waves

Geophysical fluid models often support both fast and slow motions. As the dynamics are often dominated by the slow motions, it is desirable to filter out the fast motions by constructing balance models. An example is the quasi geostrophic (QG) model, which is used widely in meteorology and oceanography for theoretical studies, in addition to practical applications such as model initialization and data assimilation. Although the QG model works quite well in the mid-latitudes, its usefulness diminishes as one approaches the equator. Thus far, attempts to derive similar balance models for the tropics have not been entirely successful as the models generally filter out Kelvin waves, which contribute significantly to tropical low-frequency variability. There is much theoretical interest in the dynamics of planetary-scale Kelvin waves, especially for atmospheric and oceanic data assimilation where observations are generally only of the mass field and thus do not constrain the wind field without some kind of diagnostic balance relation. As a result, estimates of Kelvin wave amplitudes can be poor. Our goal is to find a balance model that includes Kelvin waves for planetary-scale motions. Using asymptotic methods, we derive a balance model for the weakly nonlinear equatorial shallow-water equations. Specifically we adopt the ‘slaving’ method proposed by Warn et al. (Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., vol. 121, 1995, pp. 723–739), which avoids secular terms in the expansion and thus can in principle be carried out to any order. Different from previous approaches, our expansion is based on a long-wave scaling and the slow dynamics is described using the height field instead of potential vorticity. The leading-order model is equivalent to the truncated long-wave model considered previously (e.g. Heckley & Gill, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., vol. 110, 1984, pp. 203–217), which retains Kelvin waves in addition to equatorial Rossby waves. Our method allows for the derivation of higher-order models which significantly improve the representation of Rossby waves in the isotropic limit. In addition, the ‘slaving’ method is applicable even when the weakly nonlinear assumption is relaxed, and the resulting nonlinear model encompasses the weakly nonlinear model. We also demonstrate that the method can be applied to more realistic stratified models, such as the Boussinesq model.

The influence of vegetation, fire spread and fire behaviour on biomass burning and trace gas emissions: results from a process-based model

A process-based fire regime model (SPITFIRE) has been developed, coupled with ecosystem dynamics in the LPJ Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, and used to explore fire regimes and the current impact of fire on the terrestrial carbon cycle and associated emissions of trace atmospheric constituents. The model estimates an average release of 2.24 Pg C yr−1 as CO2 from biomass burning during the 1980s and 1990s. Comparison with observed active fire counts shows that the model reproduces where fire occurs and can mimic broad geographic patterns in the peak fire season, although the predicted peak is 1–2 months late in some regions. Modelled fire season length is generally overestimated by about one month, but shows a realistic pattern of differences among biomes. Comparisons with remotely sensed burnt-area products indicate that the model reproduces broad geographic patterns of annual fractional burnt area over most regions, including the boreal forest, although interannual variability in the boreal zone is underestimated.

A logic-based agent that plans for extended reachability goals

Planning to reach a goal is an essential capability for rational agents. In general, a goal specifies a condition to be achieved at the end of the plan execution. In this article, we introduce nondeterministic planning for extended reachability goals (i.e., goals that also specify a condition to be preserved during the plan execution). We show that, when this kind of goal is considered, the temporal logic CTL turns out to be inadequate to formalize plan synthesis and plan validation algorithms. This is mainly due to the fact that the CTL`s semantics cannot discern among the various actions that produce state transitions. To overcome this limitation, we propose a new temporal logic called alpha-CTL. Then, based on this new logic, we implement a planner capable of synthesizing reliable plans for extended reachability goals, as a side effect of model checking.

Deviance residuals in generalised log-gamma regression models with censored observations

In this article, we compare three residuals based on the deviance component in generalised log-gamma regression models with censored observations. For different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulation studies are performed and the empirical distribution of each residual is displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. For all cases studied, the empirical distributions of the proposed residuals are in general symmetric around zero, but only a martingale-type residual presented negligible kurtosis for the majority of the cases studied. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be straightforwardly extended for the martingale-type residual in generalised log-gamma regression models with censored data. A lifetime data set is analysed under log-gamma regression models and a model checking based on the martingale-type residual is performed.

Avaliação citológica em base líquida de fármacos moduladores estrogênicos

Hormone therapy is an important tool in the treatment of breast cancer and tamoxifen represents one of the most important drugs used in this type of treatment. Recently other drugs based on the inhibition of aromatase had been developed, this enzyme is responsible for the synthesis of estrogenic esteroids from the androgenic ones. The objective of this study would be the development of a quantitative cytological model of murine estral analysis that allowed the characterization of different hormone drugs effect over vaginal epithelium. The technique of monochromatic staining with Evans blue (C.I. 23860) showed to be efficient in the qualitative and quantitative classification of the cycle. It had been observed differences in the cytological standard of animals submitted to the studied drugs; tamoxifen presented a widening of phases of lesser maturation (diestrais), while anastrozole and exemestane increased the duration of the phases of larger maturation (estrais). The data were analysed through a cubical non linear regression (spline) which allowed a better characterization of the drugs, suggesting a proper cytological profile to the antagonism of the estrogen receptor (tamoxifen), aromatase competition (anastrozole) and inhibition of the enzyme (exemestane)

Análise e desenvolvimento de controladores preditivos multivariáveis baseados em multi-modelos bilineares

This work addresses issues related to analysis and development of multivariable predictive controllers based on bilinear multi-models. Linear Generalized Predictive Control (GPC) monovariable and multivariable is shown, and highlighted its properties, key features and applications in industry. Bilinear GPC, the basis for the development of this thesis, is presented by the time-step quasilinearization approach. Some results are presented using this controller in order to show its best performance when compared to linear GPC, since the bilinear models represent better the dynamics of certain processes. Time-step quasilinearization, due to the fact that it is an approximation, causes a prediction error, which limits the performance of this controller when prediction horizon increases. Due to its prediction error, Bilinear GPC with iterative compensation is shown in order to minimize this error, seeking a better performance than the classic Bilinear GPC. Results of iterative compensation algorithm are shown. The use of multi-model is discussed in this thesis, in order to correct the deficiency of controllers based on single model, when they are applied in cases with large operation ranges. Methods of measuring the distance between models, also called metrics, are the main contribution of this thesis. Several application results in simulated distillation columns, which are close enough to actual behaviour of them, are made, and the results have shown satisfactory

Desenvolvimento formal de aplicações para smartcards

Smart card applications represent a growing market. Usually this kind of application manipulate and store critical information that requires some level of security, such as financial or confidential information. The quality and trustworthiness of smart card software can be improved through a rigorous development process that embraces formal techniques of software engineering. In this work we propose the BSmart method, a specialization of the B formal method dedicated to the development of smart card Java Card applications. The method describes how a Java Card application can be generated from a B refinement process of its formal abstract specification. The development is supported by a set of tools, which automates the generation of some required refinements and the translation to Java Card client (host) and server (applet) applications. With respect to verification, the method development process was formalized and verified in the B method, using the Atelier B tool [Cle12a]. We emphasize that the Java Card application is translated from the last stage of refinement, named implementation. This translation process was specified in ASF+SDF [BKV08], describing the grammar of both languages (SDF) and the code transformations through rewrite rules (ASF). This specification was an important support during the translator development and contributes to the tool documentation. We also emphasize the KitSmart library [Dut06, San12], an essential component of BSmart, containing models of all 93 classes/interfaces of Java Card API 2:2:2, of Java/Java Card data types and machines that can be useful for the specifier, but are not part of the standard Java Card library. In other to validate the method, its tool support and the KitSmart, we developed an electronic passport application following the BSmart method. We believe that the results reached in this work contribute to Java Card development, allowing the generation of complete (client and server components), and less subject to errors, Java Card applications.

Um framework baseado em modelos para desenvolvimento de sistemas multimídia distribuídos autoadaptativos

Distributed multimedia systems have highly variable characteristics, resulting in new requirements while new technologies become available or in the need for adequacy in accordance with the amount of available resources. So, these systems should provide support for dynamic adaptations in order to adjust their structures and behaviors at runtime. This paper presents an approach to adaptation model-based and proposes a reflective and component-based framework for construction and support of self-adaptive distributed multimedia systems, providing many facilities for the development and evolution of such systems, such as dynamic adaptation. The propose is to keep one or more models to represent the system at runtime, so some external entity can perform an analysis of these models by identifying problems and trying to solve them. These models integrate the reflective meta-level, acting as a system self-representation. The framework defines a meta-model for description of self-adaptive distributed multimedia applications, which can represent components and their relationships, policies for QoS specification and adaptation actions. Additionally, this paper proposes an ADL and architecture for model-based adaptation. As a case study, this paper presents some scenarios to demonstrate the application of the framework in practice, with and without the use of ADL, as well as check some characteristics related to dynamic adaptation

Joker: um realizador de desenhos animados para linguagens formais

Using formal methods, the developer can increase software s trustiness and correctness. Furthermore, the developer can concentrate in the functional requirements of the software. However, there are many resistance in adopting this software development approach. The main reason is the scarcity of adequate, easy to use, and useful tools. Developers typically write code and test it. These tests usually consist of executing the program and checking its output against its requirements. This, however, is not always an exhaustive discipline. On the other side, using formal methods one might be able to investigate the system s properties further. Unfortunately, specification languages do not always have tools like animators or simulators, and sometimes there are no friendly Graphical User Interfaces. On the other hand, specification languages usually have a compiler which normally generates a Labeled Transition System (LTS). This work proposes an application that provides graphical animation for formal specifications using the LTS as input. The application initially supports the languages B, CSP, and Z. However, using a LTS in a specified XML format, it is possible to animate further languages. Additionally, the tool provides traces visualization, the choices the user did, in a graphical tree. The intention is to improve the comprehension of a specification by providing information about errors and animating it, as the developers do for programming languages, such as Java and C++.

Avaliação de arquitetura de agentes emocionais : uma abordagem baseada em métrica de qualidade e na influência das emoções sobre usuários

There is a need for multi-agent system designers in determining the quality of systems in the earliest phases of the development process. The architectures of the agents are also part of the design of these systems, and therefore also need to have their quality evaluated. Motivated by the important role that emotions play in our daily lives, embodied agents researchers have aimed to create agents capable of producing affective and natural interaction with users that produces a beneficial or desirable result. For this, several studies proposing architectures of agents with emotions arose without the accompaniment of appropriate methods for the assessment of these architectures. The objective of this study is to propose a methodology for evaluating architectures emotional agents, which evaluates the quality attributes of the design of architectures, in addition to evaluation of human-computer interaction, the effects on the subjective experience of users of applications that implement it. The methodology is based on a model of well-defined metrics. In assessing the quality of architectural design, the attributes assessed are: extensibility, modularity and complexity. In assessing the effects on users' subjective experience, which involves the implementation of the architecture in an application and we suggest to be the domain of computer games, the metrics are: enjoyment, felt support, warm, caring, trust, cooperation, intelligence, interestingness, naturalness of emotional reactions, believabiliy, reducing of frustration and likeability, and the average time and average attempts. We experimented with this approach and evaluate five architectures emotional agents: BDIE, DETT, Camurra-Coglio, EBDI, Emotional-BDI. Two of the architectures, BDIE and EBDI, were implemented in a version of the game Minesweeper and evaluated for human-computer interaction. In the results, DETT stood out with the best architectural design. Users who have played the version of the game with emotional agents performed better than those who played without agents. In assessing the subjective experience of users, the differences between the architectures were insignificant

Beta: uma ferramenta para geração de testes de unidade a partir de especificações B

Formal methods and software testing are tools to obtain and control software quality. When used together, they provide mechanisms for software specification, verification and error detection. Even though formal methods allow software to be mathematically verified, they are not enough to assure that a system is free of faults, thus, software testing techniques are necessary to complement the process of verification and validation of a system. Model Based Testing techniques allow tests to be generated from other software artifacts such as specifications and abstract models. Using formal specifications as basis for test creation, we can generate better quality tests, because these specifications are usually precise and free of ambiguity. Fernanda Souza (2009) proposed a method to define test cases from B Method specifications. This method used information from the machine s invariant and the operation s precondition to define positive and negative test cases for an operation, using equivalent class partitioning and boundary value analysis based techniques. However, the method proposed in 2009 was not automated and had conceptual deficiencies like, for instance, it did not fit in a well defined coverage criteria classification. We started our work with a case study that applied the method in an example of B specification from the industry. Based in this case study we ve obtained subsidies to improve it. In our work we evolved the proposed method, rewriting it and adding characteristics to make it compatible with a test classification used by the community. We also improved the method to support specifications structured in different components, to use information from the operation s behavior on the test case generation process and to use new coverage criterias. Besides, we have implemented a tool to automate the method and we have submitted it to more complex case studies

Um método para desenvolvimento de abordagens generativas com composição de linguagens específicas de domínio

The software systems development with domain-specific languages has become increasingly common. Domain-specific languages (DSLs) provide increased of the domain expressiveness, raising the abstraction level by facilitating the generation of models or low-level source code, thus increasing the productivity of systems development. Consequently, methods for the development of software product lines and software system families have also proposed the adoption of domain-specific languages. Recent studies have investigated the limitations of feature model expressiveness and proposing the use of DSLs as a complement or substitute for feature model. However, in complex projects, a single DSL is often insufficient to represent the different views and perspectives of development, being necessary to work with multiple DSLs. In order to address new challenges in this context, such as the management of consistency between DSLs, and the need to methods and tools that support the development with multiple DSLs, over the past years, several approaches have been proposed for the development of generative approaches. However, none of them considers matters relating to the composition of DSLs. Thus, with the aim to address this problem, the main objectives of this dissertation are: (i) to investigate the adoption of the integrated use of feature models and DSLs during the domain and application engineering of the development of generative approaches; (ii) to propose a method for the development of generative approaches with composition DSLs; and (iii) to investigate and evaluate the usage of modern technology based on models driven engineering to implement strategies of integration between feature models and composition of DSLs

Biomechanical Evaluation of Platform Switching in Different Implant Protocols: Computed Tomography-Based Three-Dimensional Finite Element Analysis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)