New-consensus macroeconomic governance in a Keynesian world, and the Keynesian alternative

The paper presents both the New Consensus and Keynesian equilibrium within the usual four competitive macro-markets structure. It gives theoretical explanations of the pernicious effects that the NCM governance, which has been designed for ergodic stationary regimes, brings about in Keynesian non-ergodic regimes. It put forward Keynesian principles of governance which include monetary, budgetary and fiscal instruments, and suggest new directions for the positive and normative analysis of macro-policies.

Para superar el estancamiento económico en México: "nudos críticos" de un proyecto nacional de desarrollo

This article is devoted to analyze changes in economic policy to be adopted by Mexico if a national development project were implemented. Starting from an evaluation of the main economic and political outcomes of Vicente’s Fox administration, the author proposes an alternative development strategy which permits Mexico to overcome economic stagnation. That strategy would be based in recovering the internal market as the dynamical focus of the economy with the purpose of satisfying basic needs of people. To be successful this strategy should to confront the "critical knots" of the Neo-liberal model: to reverse the uneven distribution of income; abandoning the fixing of restrictive monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies; and mobilizing economic surplus by means of a profound revision of debt service schemes. It concludes that to implement a national development project it is required a political and economic strategy to dismantle neoliberalism, which is an antinational structure of power.

Uma análise da proposta de déficit nominal zero

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the relationship between fiscal deficits and interest rate in Brazil. An adaptation of Taylor’s Rule is tested and the data confirmed this relationship. Furthermore, evidence from a loanable funds model shows that a lower deficit can bring interest rate down. However, policy coordination is a key feature in this process.

A globalização no Brasil: responsável ou bode expiatório?

After the sequence of structural adjustments decisions suggested by the IMF, Brazilian economy became wider opened, as the consequences from financial globalization were stronger than those from commercial globalization. Nevertheless, social and economical reality didn't show much improvement. On the contrary, figures on economic increase and inequalities show Brazil behind the average of developing countries. Even if the effects caused by "mondialisation" on weakened economies are well known, globalization can not be taken as the only guilty of weak economic increase, for maintaining the high level of inequalities or for the increase of precariousness. Responsibility must be searched on high inequalities in where operates "mondialisation", on weakness of public policies, on irresponsible way of opening of the economy and in fiscal policy in favor of financial sector. Other countries have reached quite different results, once the have adopted different public policies, which goal was to establish control and reduction upon the negatives effects of globalization.

Dívida pública, poupança em conta corrente do governo e superávit primário: uma análise de sustentabilidade

On this paper, we propose a change in the primary surplus' target by the government current account saving. That concept excludes public investment from primary surplus. However, of that change has raised a question about if government current account saving represents a sustainable fiscal policy. Thus, this paper analyses if the change in the primary surplus' target by the government current account saving implies a meaning modification on the debt-to-GDP ratio path. The empirical analysis, which is based on Brazilian monthly data for the period 1999-2005, suggests that the change in fiscal target does not mean a lack of sustain-ability.

Rethinking macroeconomic policies for development

The global economic crisis has created an opportunity to rethink macroeconomics for development. Such rethinking is both necessary and desirable. It is essential to redefine macroeconomic objectives so that the emphasis is on fostering employment creation and supporting economic growth instead of the focus on price stability alone. It is just as important to rethink macroeconomic policies which cannot simply be used for the management of inflation and the elimination of macroeconomic imbalances, since fiscal and monetary policies are powerful and versatile instruments in the pursuit of development objectives. In doing so, it is essential to the overcome the constraints embedded in orthodox economic thinking and recognize the constraints implicit in the politics of ideology and interests.

Minsky on "Big Government"

This paper objective is to assess, in light of the main works of Minsky, his view and analysis of what he called the "Big Government" as that huge institution which, in parallels with the "Big Bank" was capable of ensuring stability in the capitalist system and regulate its inherently unstable financial system in mid-20th century. In this work, we analyze how Minsky proposes an active role for the government in a complex economic system flawed by financial instability.

Economic stagnation in the United States: underlying causes and global consequences

This paper analyzes the causes of the slow recovery of the US economy since the financial crisis and Great Recession of 2008-9. Fallen house values and excessive household debts continue to depress consumer spending, while corporations are failing to invest in spite of record profits. The increasingly unequal distribution of income limits demand, while long-term structural transformations continue to erode employment creation. An expansionary monetary policy has been incapable of sparking a more robust recovery and fiscal policy has been shifted to an austerity stance. In this context, Brazil and other emerging market nations cannot count on the United States to continue to be the leading source of global demand as it was in previous decades.

Bureaucratic Corruption As a Constraint on Voter Choice

It Has Often Been Assumed That a Country's Tax Level, Tax Structure Progressivity and After-Tax Income Distribution Are Chosen by Voters Subject Only to Their Budget Constraints. This Paper Argues That At Certain Income Levels Voters' Decisions May Be Constrained by Bureaucratic Corruption. the Theoretical Arguments Are Developed in Asymmetry Limits the Capacity of the Fiscal System to Generate Revenues by Means of Direct Taxes. This Hypothesis Is Tested Witha Sample of International Data by Means of a Simultaneous Equation Model. the Distortions Resulting From Corruption Ar Captured Through Their Effects on a Latent Variable Defined As the Overall Fiscal Structure. Evidence Is Found of Causality Running From This Latent Variable to the Level of Taxes and the Degree of After Tax Inequality.

Heterodox Inflation Stabilization in Argentina, Brazil, and Israel. A Historical Review and Some Stylized Facts

This article presents a review of the stabilization attempts in Argentina, Brazil, and Israel during the 1980’s. Earlier research is summarized and complemented with additional sources of contemporaneous information and a detailed analysis of institutional features. The examination of these episodes underscores the strong economic and empirical relationship between the governments’ fiscal policy and the rate of inflation.

Statistical Inference for Computable General Equilibrium Models with Application to a Model of the Moroccan Economy

We study the problem of measuring the uncertainty of CGE (or RBC)-type model simulations associated with parameter uncertainty. We describe two approaches for building confidence sets on model endogenous variables. The first one uses a standard Wald-type statistic. The second approach assumes that a confidence set (sampling or Bayesian) is available for the free parameters, from which confidence sets are derived by a projection technique. The latter has two advantages: first, confidence set validity is not affected by model nonlinearities; second, we can easily build simultaneous confidence intervals for an unlimited number of variables. We study conditions under which these confidence sets take the form of intervals and show they can be implemented using standard methods for solving CGE models. We present an application to a CGE model of the Moroccan economy to study the effects of policy-induced increases of transfers from Moroccan expatriates.

The Backing of Government Debt and the Price Level

This paper studies the interdependence between fiscal and monetary policies, and their joint role in the determination of the price level. The government is characterized by a long-run fiscal policy rule whereby a given fraction of the outstanding debt, say d, is backed by the present discounted value of current and future primary surpluses. The remaining debt is backed by seigniorage revenue. The parameter d characterizes the interdependence between fiscal and monetary authorities. It is shown that in a standard monetary economy, this policy rule implies that the price level depends not only on the money stock, but also on the proportion of debt that is backed with money. Empirical estimates of d are obtained for OECD countries using data on nominal consumption, monetary base, and debt. Results indicate that debt plays only a minor role in the determination of the price level in these economies. Estimates of d correlate well with institutional measures of central bank independence.

Incidencia de las exenciones tributarias aplicadas al impuesto a la renta en Colombia de 2008 a 2009. Un análisis.

Con esta monografía se busca describir y analizar la incidencia que tienen las exenciones tributarias, aplicadas al impuesto a la renta, específicamente en los años 2008 y 2009 en Colombia. Es un análisis transversal del proceso e impacto que tiene la inclusión de las exenciones en Colombia, partiendo no sólo del hecho de que estas representan un costo fiscal para la nación, sino también de que constituyen un proceso típico de toma de decisiones políticas, cuya incidencia va más allá de querer intervenir en la economía, formular la política fiscal o aumentar la inversión en determinado sector productivo. Por lo que se llegó a concluir que las exenciones tributarias, aplicadas al impuesto a la renta en Colombia, además de disminuir los ingresos de la nación, infringen principios tributarios como la equidad, la eficiencia y la neutralidad y se encuentran incentivando a las personas de mayores ingresos en el país.

Incidencia de las exenciones, aplicadas al impuesto a la renta en Colombia de 2008 a 2009. Un análisis

Con esta monografía se busca describir y analizar la incidencia que tienen las exenciones tributarias, aplicadas al impuesto a la renta, específicamente en los años 2008 y 2009 en Colombia. Es un análisis transversal del proceso e impacto que tiene la inclusión de las exenciones en Colombia, partiendo no sólo del hecho de que estas representan un costo fiscal para la nación, sino también de que constituyen un proceso típico de toma de decisiones políticas, cuya incidencia va más allá de querer intervenir en la economía, formular la política fiscal o aumentar la inversión en determinado sector productivo. Por lo que se llegó a concluir que las exenciones tributarias, aplicadas al impuesto a la renta en Colombia, además de disminuir los ingresos de la nación, infringen principios tributarios como la equidad, la eficiencia y la neutralidad y se encuentran incentivando a las personas de mayores ingresos en el país.

Análisis de la incidencia de las exenciones decretadas en la Ley Páez - 218 de 1995 en el gasto público

Se aborda de manera particular el análisis de las exenciones concedidas por el Estado mediante la Ley 218 de 1995, más conocida como la Ley Páez, tras la emergencia económica que sufrieron los Departamentos de Cauca y Huila. Se debaten los conceptos de gasto público y ahorro fiscal.