935 resultados para FORECAST COMBINATION


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BACKGROUND: Several guidelines recommend computed tomography scans for populations with high-risk for lung cancer. The number of individuals evaluated for peripheral pulmonary lesions (PPL) will probably increase, and with it non-surgical biopsies. Associating a guidance method with a target confirmation technique has been shown to achieve the highest diagnostic yield, but the utility of bronchoscopy with radial probe endobronchial ultrasound using fluoroscopy as guidance without a guide sheath has not been reported. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of bronchoscopy with radial probe endobronchial ultrasound using fluoroscopy procedures for the investigation of PPL performed by experienced bronchoscopists with no specific previous training in this particular technique. Operator learning curves and radiological predictors were assessed for all consecutive patients examined during the first year of application of the technique. RESULTS: Fifty-one PPL were investigated. Diagnostic yield and visualization yield were 72.5 and 82.3% respectively. The diagnostic yield was 64.0% for PPL ≤20mm, and 80.8% for PPL>20mm. No false-positive results were recorded. The learning curve of all diagnostic tools showed a DY of 72.7% for the first sub-group of patients, 81.8% for the second, 72.7% for the third, and 81.8% for the last. CONCLUSION: Bronchoscopy with radial probe endobronchial ultrasound using fluoroscopy as guidance is safe and simple to perform, even without specific prior training, and diagnostic yield is high for PPL>and ≤20mm. Based on these findings, this method could be introduced as a first-line procedure for the investigation of PPL, particularly in centers with limited resources.

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By merging computational systems modeling and experimental approaches, we have uncovered treatments reprogramming pro-angiogenic monocytes present in breast tumor into immunologically potent cells capable of mediating an anti-tumor immune response. The unraveled pathways and ligands which underlie monocyte pro-angiogenic activity have a strong predictive value for breast cancer patient relapse - free survival.

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UNLABELLED: We compared the HIV-1-specific cellular and humoral immune responses elicited in rhesus macaques immunized with two poxvirus vectors (NYVAC and ALVAC) expressing the same HIV-1 antigens from clade C, Env gp140 as a trimeric cell-released protein and a Gag-Pol-Nef polyprotein as Gag-induced virus-like particles (VLPs) (referred to as NYVAC-C and ALVAC-C). The immunization protocol consisted of two doses of the corresponding poxvirus vector plus two doses of a combination of the poxvirus vector and a purified HIV-1 gp120 protein from clade C. This immunogenicity profile was also compared to that elicited by vaccine regimens consisting of two doses of the ALVAC vector expressing HIV-1 antigens from clades B/E (ALVAC-vCP1521) plus two doses of a combination of ALVAC-vCP1521 and HIV-1 gp120 protein from clades B/E (similar to the RV144 trial regimen) or clade C. The results showed that immunization of macaques with NYVAC-C stimulated at different times more potent HIV-1-specific CD4(+) T-cell responses and induced a trend toward higher-magnitude HIV-1-specific CD8(+) T-cell immune responses than did ALVAC-C. Furthermore, NYVAC-C induced a trend toward higher levels of binding IgG antibodies against clade C HIV-1 gp140, gp120, or murine leukemia virus (MuLV) gp70-scaffolded V1/V2 and toward best cross-clade-binding IgG responses against HIV-1 gp140 from clades A, B, and group M consensus, than did ALVAC-C. Of the linear binding IgG responses, most were directed against the V3 loop in all immunization groups. Additionally, NYVAC-C and ALVAC-C also induced similar levels of HIV-1-neutralizing antibodies and antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC) responses. Interestingly, binding IgA antibody levels against HIV-1 gp120 or MuLV gp70-scaffolded V1/V2 were absent or very low in all immunization groups. Overall, these results provide a comprehensive survey of the immunogenicity of NYVAC versus ALVAC expressing HIV-1 antigens in nonhuman primates and indicate that NYVAC may represent an alternative candidate to ALVAC in the development of a future HIV-1 vaccine. IMPORTANCE: The finding of a safe and effective HIV/AIDS vaccine immunogen is one of the main research priorities. Here, we generated two poxvirus-based HIV vaccine candidates (NYVAC and ALVAC vectors) expressing the same clade C HIV-1 antigens in separate vectors, and we analyzed in nonhuman primates their immunogenicity profiles. The results showed that immunization with NYVAC-C induced a trend toward higher HIV-1-specific cellular and humoral immune responses than did ALVAC-C, indicating that this new NYVAC vector could be a novel optimized HIV/AIDS vaccine candidate for human clinical trials.

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1. Species distribution models (SDMs) have become a standard tool in ecology and applied conservation biology. Modelling rare and threatened species is particularly important for conservation purposes. However, modelling rare species is difficult because the combination of few occurrences and many predictor variables easily leads to model overfitting. A new strategy using ensembles of small models was recently developed in an attempt to overcome this limitation of rare species modelling and has been tested successfully for only a single species so far. Here, we aim to test the approach more comprehensively on a large number of species including a transferability assessment. 2. For each species numerous small (here bivariate) models were calibrated, evaluated and averaged to an ensemble weighted by AUC scores. These 'ensembles of small models' (ESMs) were compared to standard Species Distribution Models (SDMs) using three commonly used modelling techniques (GLM, GBM, Maxent) and their ensemble prediction. We tested 107 rare and under-sampled plant species of conservation concern in Switzerland. 3. We show that ESMs performed significantly better than standard SDMs. The rarer the species, the more pronounced the effects were. ESMs were also superior to standard SDMs and their ensemble when they were independently evaluated using a transferability assessment. 4. By averaging simple small models to an ensemble, ESMs avoid overfitting without losing explanatory power through reducing the number of predictor variables. They further improve the reliability of species distribution models, especially for rare species, and thus help to overcome limitations of modelling rare species.

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In this paper we present a multi-stage classifier for magnetic resonance spectra of human brain tumours which is being developed as part of a decision support system for radiologists. The basic idea is to decompose a complex classification scheme into a sequence of classifiers, each specialising in different classes of tumours and trying to reproducepart of the WHO classification hierarchy. Each stage uses a particular set of classification features, which are selected using a combination of classical statistical analysis, splitting performance and previous knowledge.Classifiers with different behaviour are combined using a simple voting scheme in order to extract different error patterns: LDA, decision trees and the k-NN classifier. A special label named "unknown¿ is used when the outcomes of the different classifiers disagree. Cascading is alsoused to incorporate class distances computed using LDA into decision trees. Both cascading and voting are effective tools to improve classification accuracy. Experiments also show that it is possible to extract useful information from the classification process itself in order to helpusers (clinicians and radiologists) to make more accurate predictions and reduce the number of possible classification mistakes.

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The main objective of this master’s thesis was to quantitatively study the reliability of market and sales forecasts of a certain company by measuring bias, precision and accuracy of these forecasts by comparing forecasts against actual values. Secondly, the differences of bias, precision and accuracy between markets were explained by various macroeconomic variables and market characteristics. Accuracy and precision of the forecasts seems to vary significantly depending on the market that is being forecasted, the variable that is being forecasted, the estimation period, the length of the estimated period, the forecast horizon and the granularity of the data. High inflation, low income level and high year-on-year market volatility seems to be related with higher annual market forecast uncertainty and high year-on-year sales volatility with higher sales forecast uncertainty. When quarterly market size is forecasted, correlation between macroeconomic variables and forecast errors reduces. Uncertainty of the sales forecasts cannot be explained with macroeconomic variables. Longer forecasts are more uncertain, shorter estimated period leads to higher uncertainty, and usually more recent market forecasts are less uncertain. Sales forecasts seem to be more uncertain than market forecasts, because they incorporate both market size and market share risks. When lead time is more than one year, forecast risk seems to grow as a function of root forecast horizon. When lead time is less than year, sequential error terms are typically correlated, and therefore forecast errors are trending or mean-reverting. The bias of forecasts seems to change in cycles, and therefore the future forecasts cannot be systematically adjusted with it. The MASE cannot be used to measure whether the forecast can anticipate year-on-year volatility. Instead, we constructed a new relative accuracy measure to cope with this particular situation.

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Budget forecasts have become increasingly important as a tool of fiscal management to influence expectations of bond markets and the public at large. The inherent difficulty in projecting macroeconomic variables – together with political bias – thwart the accuracy of budget forecasts. We improve accuracy by combining the forecasts of both private and public agencies for Italy over the period 1993-2012. A weighted combined forecast of the deficit/ ratio is superior to any single forecast. Deficits are hard to predict due to shifting economic conditions and political events. We test and compare predictive accuracy over time and although a weighted combined forecast is robust to breaks, there is no significant improvement over a simple RW model.

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Budget forecasts have become increasingly important as a tool of fiscal management to influence expectations of bond markets and the public at large. The inherent difficulty in projecting macroeconomic variables – together with political bias – thwart the accuracy of budget forecasts. We improve accuracy by combining the forecasts of both private and public agencies for Italy over the period 1993-2012. A weighted combined forecast of the deficit/ ratio is superior to any single forecast. Deficits are hard to predict due to shifting economic conditions and political events. We test and compare predictive accuracy over time and although a weighted combined forecast is robust to breaks, there is no significant improvement over a simple RW model.

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Characterizing Propionibacterium freudenreichii ssp. shermanii JS and Lactobacillus rhamnosus LC705 as a new probiotic combination: basic properties of JS and pilot in vivo assessment of the combination Each candidate probiotic strain has to have the documentation for the proper identification with current molecular tools, for the biological properties, for the safety aspects and for the health benefits in human trials if the intention is to apply the strain as health promoting culture in the commercial applications. No generalization based on species properties of an existing probiotic are valid for any novel strain, as strain specific differences appear e.g. in the resistance to GI tract conditions and in health promoting benefits (Madsen, 2006). The strain evaluation based on individual strain specific probiotic characteristics is therefore the first key action for the selection of the new probiotic candidate. The ultimate goal in the selection of the probiotic strain is to provide adequate amounts of active, living cells for the application and to guarantee that the cells are physiologically strong enough to survive and be biologically active in the adverse environmental conditions in the product and in GI tract of the host. The in vivo intervention studies are expensive and time consuming; therefore it is not rational to test all the possible candidates in vivo. Thus, the proper in vitro studies are helping to eliminate strains which are unlikely to perform well in vivo. The aims of this study were to characterize the strains of Propionibacterium freudenreichii ssp. shermanii JS and Lactobacillus rhamnosus LC705, both used for decades as cheese starter cultures, for their technological and possible probiotic functionality applied in a combined culture. The in vitro studies of Propionibacterium freudenreichii ssp. shermanii JS focused on the monitoring of the viability rates during the acid and bile treatments and on the safety aspects such as antibiotic susceptibility and adhesion. The studies with the combination of the strains JS and LC705 administered in fruit juices monitored the survival of the strains JS and LC705 during the GI transit and their effect on gut wellbeing properties measured as relief of constipation. In addition, safety parameters such as side effects and some peripheral immune parameters were assessed. Separately, the combination of P. freudenreichii ssp. shermanii JS and Lactobacillus rhamnosus LC705 was evaluated from the technological point of view as a bioprotective culture in fermented foods and wheat bread applications. In this study, the role ofP. freudenreichii ssp. shermanii JS as a candidate probiotic culture alone and in a combination with L. rhamnosus LC705 was demonstrated. Both strains were transiently recovered in high numbers in fecal samples of healthy adults during the consumption period. The good survival through the GI transit was proven for both strains with a recovery rate from 70 to 80% for the JS strain and from 40 to 60% for the LC705 strain from the daily dose of 10 log10 CFU. The good survival was shown from the consumption of fruit juices which do not provide similar matrix protection for the cells as milk based products. The strain JS did not pose

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A stability-indicating RP-HPLC method is presented for determination of gatifloxacin and flurbiprofen in binary combination. Gatifloxacin, flurbiprofen and their degradation products were detected at 254 nm using a BDS Hypersil C8 (250 X 4.6 mm, 5 µm) column and mixture of 20 mM phosphate buffer (pH 3.0) and methanol 30:70 v/v as mobile phase. Response was linear over the range of 15-105 mg mL-1 for gatifloxacin (r² > 0.998) and of 1.5-10.5 mg mL-1 for flurbiprofen (r² > 0.999). The developed method efficiently separated the analytical peaks from degradation products (peak purity index > 0.9999). The method developed can be applied successfully for determination of gatifloxacin and flurbiprofen in human serum, urine, pharmaceutical formulations, and their stability studies.

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Fusarium Head Blight (FHB) is a disease of great concern in wheat (Triticum aestivum). Due to its relatively narrow susceptible phase and environmental dependence, the pathosystem is suitable for modeling. In the present work, a mechanistic model for estimating an infection index of FHB was developed. The model is process-based driven by rates, rules and coefficients for estimating the dynamics of flowering, airborne inoculum density and infection frequency. The latter is a function of temperature during an infection event (IE), which is defined based on a combination of daily records of precipitation and mean relative humidity. The daily infection index is the product of the daily proportion of susceptible tissue available, infection frequency and spore cloud density. The model was evaluated with an independent dataset of epidemics recorded in experimental plots (five years and three planting dates) at Passo Fundo, Brazil. Four models that use different factors were tested, and results showed all were able to explain variation for disease incidence and severity. A model that uses a correction factor for extending host susceptibility and daily spore cloud density to account for post-flowering infections was the most accurate explaining 93% of the variation in disease severity and 69% of disease incidence according to regression analysis.

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Background: In Finland, breast cancer (BC) is the most common cancer among women, and prostate cancer (PC) that among men. At the metastatic stage both cancers remain essentially incurable. The goals of therapy include palliation of symptoms, improvement or maintenance of quality of life (QoL), delay of disease progression, and prolongation of survival. Balancing between efficacy and toxicity is the major challenge. With increasing costs of new treatments, appropriate use of resources is paramount. When new treatment regimes are introduced into clinical practice a comprehensive assessment of clinical benefit, adverse effects and cost is necessary. Both BC and PC show a predilection to metastasize to bone. Bone metastases cause significant morbidity impairing the patients´ QoL. Diagnosis of bone metastases relies mainly on radiological methods, which however lack optimal sensitivity and specificity. New tools are needed for detection and follow-up of bone metastases. Aims: Anthracyclines and taxanes are effective chemotherapeutic agents in the treatment of metastatic breast cancer (MBC) with different mechanisms of action. Therefore, evaluation of the combination of anthracyclines with taxanes was a justifiable approach in the treatment of MBC patients. We assessed the efficacy, toxicity, cost of treatment and QoL of BC patients treated with first-line chemotherapy for metastatic disease with the combination epirubicin and docetaxel. We also evaluated the diagnostic potential of tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase 5b (TRACP 5b) and carboxyterminal telopeptides of type I collagen (ICTP) in the diagnosis of bone metastases in BC and TRACP 5b in PC patients. Results: The combination of epirubicin and docetaxel was effective in this phase II study, but required individual dose adjustment to avoid neutropenic infections, and the use of growth factors to maintain a feasible dose level. The response rate was 54 % (95 % CI 37-71) and the median overall survival (OS) was 26 months. Of the patients, 87 % were treated for infections. The treatment of adverse events required additional use of health resources mainly due to neutropenic infections, thereby raising direct treatment costs by 20 %. Despite adverse events, the global QoL was not significantly compromised during the treatment. Clinically evident acute cardiac toxicity was not observed. The combination of serum TRACP 5b and ICTP was at least equally sensitive and specific in detection of of bone metastases as commonly used total alkaline phosphatise (tALP) in BC patients. In contrast, TRACP 5b was less specific and sensitive than tALP as a marker of skeletal changes in PC patients. Conclusions: Treatment with epirubicin and docetaxel showed high efficacy in first-line chemotherapy of MBC. The relatively high incidence of neutropenic infections requiring hospitalization increased the treatment costs. Despite adverse events, the global QoL of the patients was not significantly compromised. The combination of TRACP 5b and ICTP showed similar activity as tALP in detecting bone metastases in MBC. In contrast, TRACP 5b was less specific and sensitive than tALP as a marker of skeletal changes in PC.

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The existence of a minimum storage capacity of grains as a condition for the maintenance of regulator physical stocks has been used as a strategic factor in the agribusiness expansion. However, in Brazil the storage infrastructure has not followed the growth of the agricultural sector. This fact is evident in the case of soybeans that currently represent 49% of grain production in the country, whose volume production has been increasing significantly over the years. This study aimed to predict the futureneeds of static storage capacity of soybeans from historical data to estimate the investment needed to install storage units in Brazil for the next five years. A statistic analysis of collected data allowed a forecast and identification of the number of storage units that should be installed to meet the storage needs of soybeans in the next five years. It was concluded that by 2015 the soybean storage capacity should be 87 million tons, and to store 49% of soybeans produced, 1,104 storage units should be installed at a cost of R$ 442 million.