A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. METHODS We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. INTERPRETATION Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.

Estimating daily and diurnal variations of illicit drug use in Hong Kong: A pilot study of using wastewater analysis in an Asian metropolitan city

The measurement of illicit drug metabolites in raw wastewater is increasingly being adopted as an approach to objectively monitor population-level drug use, and is an effective complement to traditional epidemiological methods. As such, it has been widely applied in western countries. In this study, we utilised this approach to assess drug use patterns over nine days during April 2011 in Hong Kong. Raw wastewater samples were collected from the largest wastewater treatment plant serving a community of approximately 3.5 million people and analysed for excreted drug residues including cocaine, ketamine, methamphetamine, 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) and key metabolites using liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry. The overall drug use pattern determined by wastewater analysis was consistent with that have seen amongst people coming into contact with services in relation to substance use; among our target drugs, ketamine (estimated consumption: 1400–1600 mg/day/1000 people) was the predominant drug followed by methamphetamine (180–200 mg/day/1000 people), cocaine (160–180 mg/day/1000 people) and MDMA (not detected). The levels of these drugs were relatively steady throughout the monitoring period. Analysing samples at higher temporal resolution provided data on diurnal variations of drug residue loads. Elevated ratios of cocaine to benzoylecgonine were identified unexpectedly in three samples during the evening and night, providing evidence for potential dumping events of cocaine. This study provides the first application of wastewater analysis to quantitatively evaluate daily drug use in an Asian metropolitan community. Our data reinforces the benefit of wastewater monitoring to health and law enforcement authorities for strategic planning and evaluation of drug intervention strategies.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refi nements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2∙4 billion and 1∙6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537∙6 million in 1990 to 764∙8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114∙87 per 1000 people to 110∙31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world’s population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to nonfatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Shared genetics underlying epidemiological association between endometriosis and ovarian cancer

Epidemiological studies have demonstrated associations between endometriosis and certain histotypes of ovarian cancer, including clear cell, low-grade serous and endometrioid carcinomas. We aimed to determine whether the observed associations might be due to shared genetic aetiology. To address this, we used two endometriosis datasets genotyped on common arrays with full-genome coverage (3194 cases and 7060 controls) and a large ovarian cancer dataset genotyped on the customized Illumina Infinium iSelect (iCOGS) arrays (10 065 cases and 21 663 controls). Previous work has suggested that a large number of genetic variants contribute to endometriosis and ovarian cancer (all histotypes combined) susceptibility. Here, using the iCOGS data, we confirmed polygenic architecture for most histotypes of ovarian cancer. This led us to evaluate if the polygenic effects are shared across diseases. We found evidence for shared genetic risks between endometriosis and all histotypes of ovarian cancer, except for the intestinal mucinous type. Clear cell carcinoma showed the strongest genetic correlation with endometriosis (0.51, 95% CI = 0.18–0.84). Endometrioid and low-grade serous carcinomas had similar correlation coefficients (0.48, 95% CI = 0.07–0.89 and 0.40, 95% CI = 0.05–0.75, respectively). High-grade serous carcinoma, which often arises from the fallopian tubes, showed a weaker genetic correlation with endometriosis (0.25, 95% CI = 0.11–0.39), despite the absence of a known epidemiological association. These results suggest that the epidemiological association between endometriosis and ovarian adenocarcinoma may be attributable to shared genetic susceptibility loci.

Epidemiological data of seasonal variation in mood and behaviour

The aim of this study was to measure seasonal variation in mood and behaviour. The dual vulnerability and latitude effect hypothesis, the risk of increased appetite, weight and other seasonal symptoms to develop metabolic syndrome, and perception of low illumination in quality of life and mental well-being were assessed. These variations are prevalent in persons who live in high latitudes and need balancing of metabolic processes to adapt to environmental changes due to seasons. A randomized sample of 8028 adults aged 30 and over (55% women) participated in an epidemiological health examination study, The Health 2000, applying the probability proportional to population size method for a range of socio-demographic characteristics. They were present in a face-to-face interview at home and health status examination. The questionnaires included the modified versions of the Seasonal Pattern Assessment Questionnaire (SPAQ) and Beck Depression Inventory (BDI), the Health Related Quality of Life (HRQoL) instrument 15D, and the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ). The structured and computerized Munich Composite International Diagnostic Interview (M-CIDI) as part of the interview was used to assess diagnoses of mental disorders, and, the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATPIII) criteria were assessed using all the available information to detect metabolic syndrome. A key finding was that 85% of this nationwide representative sample had seasonal variation in mood and behaviour. Approximately 9% of the study population presented combined seasonal and depressive symptoms with a significant association between their scores, and 2.6% had symptoms that corresponded to Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD) in severity. Seasonal variations in weight and appetite are two important components that increase the risk of metabolic syndrome. Other factors such as waist circumference and major depressive disorder contributed to the metabolic syndrome as well. Persons reported of having seasonal symptoms were associated with a poorer quality of life and compromised mental well-being, especially if indoors illumination at home and/or at work was experienced as being low. Seasonal and circadian misalignments are suggested to associate with metabolic disorders, and could be remarked if individuals perceive low illumination levels at home and/or at work that affect the health-related quality of life and mental well-being. Keywords: depression, health-related quality of life, illumination, latitude, mental well-being, metabolic syndrome, seasonal variation, winter.

The Europeanisation of occupational health services: A study of the impact of EU policies

This study concerns Framework Directive 89/391/EEC on health and safety at work, which encouraged improvements in occupational health services (OHS) for workers in EU member states. Framework Directive 89/391/EEC originally aimed at bringing the same level of occupational health and safety to employees in both the public and private sectors in EU member states. However, the implementation of the framework directive and OHS varies widely among EU member states. Occupational health services have generally been considered an important work-related welfare benefit in EU member states. The purpose of this study was to analyse OHS within the EU context and then analyse the impact of EU policies on OHS implementation as part of the welfare state benefit. The focus is on social, health, and industrial policies within welfare state regimes as well as EU policy-making processes affecting these policies in EU member states. The research tasks were divided into four groups related to the policy, functions, targets,and actors of OHS. The questions related to policy tried to discover the role of OHS in other policies, such as health, social, and labour market policies within the EU. The questions about functions sought to describe the changes, as well as the path dependence, of OHS in EU member states after the framework directive. The questions about targets were based on the general aims of WHO and the ILO in relation to equity, solidarity, universality, and access to OHS. The questions on actors were designed to understand the variety of stakeholders interested in OHS. The actors were supranational (EU, ILO, and WHO), national (ministries, institutes, and professional organisations), and social partners (trade unions and employers organisations). The study data were collected by interviewing 92 people in 15 EU member states, including representatives of ministries, institutions, research,trade unions, employers organisations, and occupational health organisations. Other documents were collected from the Internet,databases, libraries, and conference materials for a systematic review of the policies, strategies, organisation, financing, and monitoring of OHS in EU member states. Different analytical methods were used in the data analysis. The main findings of the study can be summarised as follows. First, occupational health services is a context-dependent phenomenon, which therefore varies according to the development of the welfare state in general, and depends on each country s culture, history, economy, and politics. The views of different stakeholders in EU member states concerning the impact and possibilities of OHS to improve health vary from evidence-based opinions to the sporadic impact of OHS on occupational health. OHS as a concept is vaguely defined by the EU, whereas the ILO defines OHS content. The tasks of OHS began as preventive and protective services for workers. However, they have moved towards multidisciplinary and organisational development as well as the workplace health promotion sphere.Since 1989 OHS has developed differently in different EU member states depending on the starting position of those states, but planning and implementation are crucial phases in the process toward better OHS coverage, equity, and access. Nevertheless, the data used for the planning and legitimisation of OHS activities are mainly based on occupational health data rather than on OHS data. This makes decisions on political or policy grounds inaccurate. OHS is still an evolving concept and benefit for workers, but the Europeanisation of OHS reflects contextual changes, such as the impact of the internal market, competition, and commercialisation on OHS. Stronger cooperation and integration with health, social, and employment services would be an asset for workers, because of new epidemics, an epidemiological shift towards new risks, an ageing labour market, and changes in the labour market. Different methods and approaches are needed in order to study the results of integrated services. In the future, more detailed information will be needed about the actual impact of EU policies on OHS and decision-making processes in order to get OHS into different policies in the EU and its member states. Further results and effects of OHS processes on occupational health need to be analysed more carefully. The adoption of a variety of research strategies and a multidisciplinary approach to understand the influence of different policies on OHS in the EU and its member states would highlight the options and opportunities to improve workers occupational health. Key subject headings: Occupational health services, EU policy, policymaking,framework directive 89/391/EEC

Molecular and epidemiological aspects of Streptococcus pyogenes disease in Finland: Severe infections and bacterial, non-necrotizing cellulitis

Streptococcus pyogenes (group A streptococcus) is an important human pathogen, causing a wide array of infections ranging in severity. The majority of S. pyogenes infections are mild upper respiratory tract or skin infections. Severe, invasive infections, such as bacteraemia, are relatively rare, but constitute a major global burden with a high mortality. Certain streptococcal types are associated with a more severe disease and higher mortality. Bacterial, non-necrotizing cellulitis and erysipelas are localised infections of the skin, and although they are usually not life-threatening, they have a tendency to recur and therefore cause substantial morbidity. Despite several efforts aimed at developing an effective and safe vaccine against S. pyogenes infections, no vaccine is yet available. In this study, the epidemiology of invasive S. pyogenes infections in Finland was described over a decade of national, population-based surveillance. Recent trends in incidence, outcome and bacterial types were investigated. The beta-haemolytic streptococci causing cellulitis and erysipelas infections in Finland were studied in a case-control study. Bacterial isolates were characterised using both conventional and molecular typing methods, such as the emm typing, which is the most widely used typing method for beta-haemolytic streptococci. The incidence of invasive S. pyogenes disease has had an increasing trend during the past ten years in Finland, especially from 2006 onwards. Age- and sex-specific differences in the incidence rate were identified, with men having a higher incidence than women, especially among persons aged 45-64 years. In contrast, more infections occurred in women aged 25-34 years than men. Seasonal patterns with occasional peaks during the midsummer and midwinter were observed. Differences in the predisposing factors and underlying conditions of patients may contribute to these distinctions. Case fatality associated with invasive S. pyogenes infections peaked in 2005 (12%) but remained at a reasonably low level (8% overall during 2004-2007) compared to that of other developed countries (mostly exceeding 10%). Changes in the prevalent emm types were associated with the observed increases in incidence and case fatality. In the case-control study, acute bacterial non-necrotizing cellulitis was caused predominantly by Streptococcus dysgalactiae subsp. equisimilis, instead of S. pyogenes. The recurrent nature of cellulitis became evident. This study adds to our understanding of S. pyogenes infections in Finland and provides a basis for comparison to other countries and future trends. emm type surveillance and outcome analyses remain important for detecting such changes in type distribution that might lead to increases in incidence and case fatality. Bacterial characterisation serves as a basis for disease pathogenesis studies and vaccine development.

Cord blood 25-hydroxyvitamin D and fetal growth in the China-Anhui birth cohort study

We determined the association of cord blood 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] with birth weight and the risk of small for gestational age (SGA). As part of the China-Anhui Birth Cohort (C-ABC) study, we measured cord blood levels of 25(OH)D in 1491 neonates in Hefei, China. The data on maternal sociodemographic characteristics, health status, lifestyle, birth outcomes were prospectively collected. Multiple regression models were used to estimate the association of 25(OH)D levels with birth weight and the risk of SGA. Compared with neonates in the lowest decile of cord blood 25(OH)D levels, neonates in four deciles (the fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh deciles) had significantly increased birth weight and decreased risk of SGA. Multiple linear regression models showed that per 10 nmol/L increase in cord blood 25(OH)D, birth weight increased by 61.0 g (95% CI: 31.9, 89.9) at concentrations less than 40 nmol/L, and then decreased by 68.5 g (95% CI: −110.5, −26.6) at concentrations from 40 to 70 nmol/L. This study provides the first epidemiological evidence that there was an inverted U shaped relationship between neonatal vitamin D status and fetal growth, and the risk of SGA reduced at moderate concentration.

The effects of height and BMI on prostate cancer incidence and mortality: A Mendelian randomization study in 20,848 cases and 20,214 controls from the PRACTICAL consortium

Background Epidemiological studies suggest a potential role for obesity and determinants of adult stature in prostate cancer risk and mortality, but the relationships described in the literature are complex. To address uncertainty over the causal nature of previous observational findings, we investigated associations of height- and adiposity-related genetic variants with prostate cancer risk and mortality. Methods We conducted a case–control study based on 20,848 prostate cancers and 20,214 controls of European ancestry from 22 studies in the PRACTICAL consortium. We constructed genetic risk scores that summed each man’s number of height and BMI increasing alleles across multiple single nucleotide polymorphisms robustly associated with each phenotype from published genome-wide association studies. Results The genetic risk scores explained 6.31 and 1.46 % of the variability in height and BMI, respectively. There was only weak evidence that genetic variants previously associated with increased BMI were associated with a lower prostate cancer risk (odds ratio per standard deviation increase in BMI genetic score 0.98; 95 % CI 0.96, 1.00; p = 0.07). Genetic variants associated with increased height were not associated with prostate cancer incidence (OR 0.99; 95 % CI 0.97, 1.01; p = 0.23), but were associated with an increase (OR 1.13; 95 % CI 1.08, 1.20) in prostate cancer mortality among low-grade disease (p heterogeneity, low vs. high grade <0.001). Genetic variants associated with increased BMI were associated with an increase (OR 1.08; 95 % CI 1.03, 1.14) in all-cause mortality among men with low-grade disease (p heterogeneity = 0.03). Conclusions We found little evidence of a substantial effect of genetically elevated height or BMI on prostate cancer risk, suggesting that previously reported observational associations may reflect common environmental determinants of height or BMI and prostate cancer risk. Genetically elevated height and BMI were associated with increased mortality (prostate cancer-specific and all-cause, respectively) in men with low-grade disease, a potentially informative but novel finding that requires replication.

Atrial remodeling in atrial fibrillation : Epidemiological, clinical and magnetocardiographic aspects

Atrial fibrillation is the most common arrhythmia requiring treatment. This Thesis investigated atrial fibrillation (AF) with a specific emphasis on atrial remodeling which was analysed from epidemiological, clinical and magnetocardiographic (MCG) perspectives. In the first study we evaluated in real-life clinical practice a population-based cohort of AF patients referred for their first elective cardioversion (CV). 183 consecutive patients were included of whom in 153 (84%) sinus rhythm (SR) was restored. Only 39 (25%) of those maintained SR for one year. Shorter duration of AF and the use of sotalol were the only characteristics associated with better restoration and maintenance of SR. During the one-year follow-up 40% of the patients ended up in permanent AF. Female gender and older age were associated with the acceptance of permanent AF. The LIFE-trial was a prospective, randomised, double-blinded study that evaluated losartan and atenolol in patients with hypertension and left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH). Of the 8,851 patients with SR at baseline and without a history of AF 371 patients developed new-onset AF during the study. Patients with new-onset AF had an increased risk of cardiac events, stroke, and increased rate of hospitalisation for heart failure. Younger age, female gender, lower systolic blood pressure, lesser LVH in ECG and randomisation to losartan therapy were independently associated with lower frequency of new-onset AF. The impact of AF on morbidity and mortality was evaluated in a post-hoc analysis of the OPTIMAAL trial that compared losartan with captopril in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and evidence of LV dysfunction. Of the 5,477 randomised patients 655 had AF at baseline, and 345 patients developed new AF during the follow-up period, median 3.0 years. Older patients and patients with signs of more serious heart disease had and developed AF more often. Patients with AF at baseline had an increased risk of mortality (hazard ratio (HR) of 1.32) and stroke (HR 1.77). New-onset AF was associated with increased mortality (HR 1.82) and stroke (HR of 2.29). In the fourth study we assessed the reproducibility of our MCG method. This method was used in the fifth study where 26 patients with persistent AF had immediately after the CV longer P-wave duration and higher energy of the last portion of atrial signal (RMS40) in MCG, increased P-wave dispersion in SAECG and decreased pump function of the atria as well as enlarged atrial diameter in echocardiography compared to age- and disease-matched controls. After one month in SR, P-wave duration in MCG still remained longer and left atrial (LA) diameter greater compared to the controls, while the other measurements had returned to the same level as in the control group. In conclusion is not a rare condition in either general population or patients with hypertension or AMI, and it is associated with increased risk of morbidity and mortality. Therefore, atrial remodeling that increases the likelihood of AF and also seems to be relatively stable has to be identified and prevented. MCG was found to be an encouraging new method to study electrical atrial remodeling and reverse remodeling. RAAS-suppressing medications appear to be the most promising method to prevent atrial remodeling and AF.

Molecular methods for the epidemiological analysis of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and Streptococcus pneumoniae

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and Streptococcus pneumoniae are major health problems worldwide, both found in symptomless carriage but also causing even life-threatening infections. The aim of this thesis was to characterise MRSA and S. pneumoniae in detail by using several molecular typing methods for various epidemiological purposes: clonality analysis, epidemiological surveillance, outbreak investigation, and virulence factor analysis. The characteristics of MRSA isolates from the strain collection of the Finnish National Infectious Disease Register (NIDR) and pneumococcal isolates collected from military recruits and children with acute otitis media (AOM) were analysed using various typing techniques. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing, pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE), multilocus sequence typing (MLST), spa typing, staphylococcal cassette chromosome mec (SCCmec) typing, and the detection of Panton-Valentine leukocidin (PVL) genes were performed for MRSA isolates. Pneumococcal isolates were analysed using antimicrobial susceptibility testing, serotyping, MLST, and by detecting pilus islet 1 (PI-1) and 2 (PI-2) genes. Several international community- and hospital-associated MRSA clones were recognised in Finland. The genetic diversity among MRSA FIN-4 isolates and among FIN-16 isolates was low. Overall, MRSA blood isolates from 1997 to 2006 were genetically diverse. spa typing was found to be a highly discriminatory, rapid and accurate typing method and it also qualifies as the primary typing method in countries with a long history of PFGE-based MRSA strain nomenclature. However, additional typing by another method, e.g. PFGE, is needed in certain situations to be able to provide adequate discrimination for epidemiological surveillance and outbreak investigation. An outbreak of pneumonia was associated with one pneumococcal strain among military recruits, previously healthy young men living in a crowded setting. The pneumococcal carriage rate after the outbreak was found to be exceptionally high. PI-1 genes were detected at a rather low prevalence among pneumococcal isolates from children with AOM. However, the study demonstrated that PI-1 has existed among pneumococcal isolates prior to pneumococcal conjugate vaccine and the increased antimicrobial resistance era. Moreover, PI-1 was found to associate with the serotype rather than the genotype. This study adds to our understanding of the molecular epidemiology of MRSA strains in Finland and the importance of an appropriate genotyping method to be able to perform high-level laboratory-based surveillance of MRSA. Epidemiological and molecular analyses of S. pneumoniae add to our knowledge of the characteristics of pneumococcal strains in Finland.

Impact of gene variants on sex-specific regulation of human Scavenger receptor class B type 1 (SR-BI) expression in liver and association with lipid levels in a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Several studies have noted that genetic variants of SCARB1, a lipoprotein receptor involved in reverse cholesterol transport, are associated with serum lipid levels in a sex-dependent fashion. However, the mechanism underlying this gene by sex interaction has not been explored. METHODS: We utilized both epidemiological and molecular methods to study how estrogen and gene variants interact to influence SCARB1 expression and lipid levels. Interaction between 35 SCARB1 haplotype-tagged polymorphisms and endogenous estradiol levels was assessed in 498 postmenopausal Caucasian women from the population-based Rancho Bernardo Study. We further examined associated variants with overall and SCARB1 splice variant (SR-BI and SR-BII) expression in 91 human liver tissues using quantitative real-time PCR. RESULTS: Several variants on a haplotype block spanning intron 11 to intron 12 of SCARB1 showed significant gene by estradiol interaction affecting serum lipid levels, the strongest for rs838895 with HDL-cholesterol (p=9.2x10(-4)) and triglycerides (p=1.3x10(-3)) and the triglyceride:HDL cholesterol ratio (p=2.7x10(-4)). These same variants were associated with expression of the SR-BI isoform in a sex-specific fashion, with the strongest association found among liver tissue from 52 young women<45 years old (p=0.002). CONCLUSIONS: Estrogen and SCARB1 genotype may act synergistically to regulate expression of SCARB1 isoforms and impact serum levels of HDL cholesterol and triglycerides. This work highlights the importance of considering sex-dependent effects of gene variants on serum lipid levels.

Application description and policy model in collaborative environment for sharing of information on epidemiological and clinical research data sets.

BACKGROUND: Sharing of epidemiological and clinical data sets among researchers is poor at best, in detriment of science and community at large. The purpose of this paper is therefore to (1) describe a novel Web application designed to share information on study data sets focusing on epidemiological clinical research in a collaborative environment and (2) create a policy model placing this collaborative environment into the current scientific social context. METHODOLOGY: The Database of Databases application was developed based on feedback from epidemiologists and clinical researchers requiring a Web-based platform that would allow for sharing of information about epidemiological and clinical study data sets in a collaborative environment. This platform should ensure that researchers can modify the information. A Model-based predictions of number of publications and funding resulting from combinations of different policy implementation strategies (for metadata and data sharing) were generated using System Dynamics modeling. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The application allows researchers to easily upload information about clinical study data sets, which is searchable and modifiable by other users in a wiki environment. All modifications are filtered by the database principal investigator in order to maintain quality control. The application has been extensively tested and currently contains 130 clinical study data sets from the United States, Australia, China and Singapore. Model results indicated that any policy implementation would be better than the current strategy, that metadata sharing is better than data-sharing, and that combined policies achieve the best results in terms of publications. CONCLUSIONS: Based on our empirical observations and resulting model, the social network environment surrounding the application can assist epidemiologists and clinical researchers contribute and search for metadata in a collaborative environment, thus potentially facilitating collaboration efforts among research communities distributed around the globe.

Myeloperoxidase G-463A polymorphism and Alzheimer's disease in the ApoEurope study

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the most common cause of dementia in the elderly. Epidemiological and molecular genetic studies have shown the existence of several genes associated with increased risk of AD, the major genetic susceptibility locus coding for apolipoprotein E (apoE). A polymorphism in the myeloperoxidase gene (MPO) has previously been associated with AD susceptibility. However, results in the literature are controversial and seem to be dependent on several factors such as gender, apoE polymorphism or the genetic structure of the population. We investigated MPO G-463A and apoE polymorphism in 265 cases and 246 controls from the ApoEurope Study. In females, we found a significant association between MPO genotype and AD (P=0.034), GG genotype frequency being lower in cases (52.4%) as compared to controls (64.2%). In men, there was no significant effect of MPO polymorphism. No interaction was found between MPO polymorphism and apoE epsilon 4 allele. In conclusion, the G-463A polymorphism of MPO was statistically associated with AD in a gender-specific manner. However, given the low significance of P value we suggest no causal effect of the MPO gene in AD, as also evidenced in a recent meta-analysis. Our results support the hypothesis of a possible linkage disequilibrium between the MPO G-463A gene polymorphism and another functional variant involved in AD.