Low carbon systems for climate change mitigation and adaptation

Global warming and climate change have been among the most controversial topics after the industrial revolution. The main contributor to global warming is carbon dioxide (CO2), which increases the temperature by trapping heat in the atmosphere. Atmospheric CO2 concentration before the industrial era was around 280 ppm for a long period, while it has increased dramatically since the industrial revolution up to approximately 420 ppm. According to the Paris agreement it is needed to keep the temperature increase up to 2°C, preferably 1.5° C, to prevent reaching the tipping point of climate change. To keep the temperature increase below the range, it is required to find solutions to reduce CO2 emissions. The solutions can be low-carbon systems and transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources (RES). This thesis is allocated to the assessment of low-carbon systems and the reduction of CO2 by using RES instead of fossil fuels. One of the most important aspects to define the location and capacity of low-carbon systems is CO2 mass estimation. As mentioned, high-emission systems can be substituted by low-carbon systems. An example of high-emission systems is dredging. The global CO2 emission from dredging is relatively high which is associated with the growth of marine transport in addition to its high emission. Thus, ejectors system as alternative for dredging is investigated in chapter 2. For the transition from fossil fuels to RES, it is required to provide solutions for the RES storage problem. A solution could be zero-emission fuels such as hydrogen. However, the production of hydrogen requires electricity, and electricity production emits a large amount of CO2. Therefore, the last three chapters are allocated to hydrogen generation via electrolysis, at the current condition and scenarios of RES and variation of cell characteristics and stack materials, and its delivery.

Development of a Whole-Genome Sequencing (WGS) approach for the characterization of Legionella environmental isolates in water systems

Legionella is a Gram-negative bacterium that represent a public health issue, with heavy social and economic impact. Therefore, it is mandatory to provide a proper environmental surveillance and risk assessment plan to perform Legionella control in water distribution systems in hospital and community buildings. The thesis joins several methodologies in a unique workflow applied for the identification of non-pneumophila Legionella species (n-pL), starting from standard methods as culture and gene sequencing (mip and rpoB), and passing through innovative approaches as MALDI-TOF MS technique and whole genome sequencing (WGS). The results obtained, were compared to identify the Legionella isolates, and lead to four presumptive novel Legionella species identification. One of these four new isolates was characterized and recognized at taxonomy level with the name of Legionella bononiensis (the 64th Legionella species). The workflow applied in this thesis, help to increase the knowledge of Legionella environmental species, improving the description of the environment itself and the events that promote the growth of Legionella in their ecological niche. The correct identification and characterization of the isolates permit to prevent their spread in man-made environment and contain the occurrence of cases, clusters, or outbreaks. Therefore, the experimental work undertaken, could support the preventive measures during environmental and clinical surveillance, improving the study of species often underestimated or still unknown.

Trees: radiocarbon and dendrochronology - together for the Resolution project

The year 14,226 BP marks an important border in the actual radiocarbon (14C) calibration curve: the high resolution and precision characterising the first part (0 – 14,226 BP) of the curve are due to the potential represented by tree-ring datasets, which directly provide the atmospheric 14C content at the time of tree-rings formation with high resolution. They systematically decrease going back in time, where only a few floating tree-ring chronologies alternate to other low-resolution records. The lack of resolution in the dating procedure before 14,226 years BP leads to significant issues in the interpretation and untangling of tricky facts of our past, in the field of Human Evolution. Research on sub-fossil trees and the construction of new Glacial tree-ring chronologies can significantly improve the radiocarbon dating in terms of temporal resolution and precision until 55,000 years BP to clear puzzles in the Human Evolution history. In this thesis, the dendrochronological study, the radiocarbon dating and the extrapolation of environmental and climate information from sub-fossil trees found on the Portugal foreshore, remnants of a Glacial lagoonal forest, are presented. The careful sampling, the dendrochronological measurements and cross-dating, the application of the most suitable cellulose extraction protocol and the most advanced technologies of the MICADAS system at ETH-Zurich, led to the construction of a new 220-years long tree-ring site chronology and to high resolution, highly reliable and with a tight error range radiocarbon ages. At the moment, it results impossible to absolutely date this radiocarbon sequence by the comparison of Δ14C of the trees and 10 Be fluctuations from the ice-cores. For this reason, tree growth analysis, comparisons with a living pine stand and forest-fires history reconstruction have made it possible to hypothesize site and climate characteristics useful to constrain the positioning in time of the obtained radiocarbon sequence.

Multi-scale analysis of active landslides using two-pass differential interferometry

Landslides are common features of the landscape of the north-central Apennine mountain range and cause frequent damage to human facilities and infrastructure. Most of these landslides move periodically with moderate velocities and, only after particular rainfall events, some accelerate abruptly. Synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR) provides a particularly convenient method for studying deforming slopes. We use standard two-pass interferometry, taking advantage of the short revisit time of the Sentinel-1 satellites. In this paper we present the results of the InSAR analysis developed on several study areas in central and Northern Italian Apennines. The aims of the work described within the articles contained in this paper, concern: i) the potential of the standard two-pass interferometric technique for the recognition of active landslides; ii) the exploration of the potential related to the displacement time series resulting from a two-pass multiple time-scale InSAR analysis; iii) the evaluation of the possibility of making comparisons with climate forcing for cognitive and risk assessment purposes. Our analysis successfully identified more than 400 InSAR deformation signals (IDS) in the different study areas corresponding to active slope movements. The comparison between IDSs and thematic maps allowed us to identify the main characteristics of the slopes most prone to landslides. The analysis of displacement time series derived from monthly interferometric stacks or single 6-day interferograms allowed the establishment of landslide activity thresholds. This information, combined with the displacement time series, allowed the relationship between ground deformation and climate forcing to be successfully investigated. The InSAR data also gave access to the possibility of validating geographical warning systems and comparing the activity state of landslides with triggering probability thresholds.

Retrieval of atmospheric trace gases from DOAS/MAX-DOAS ground-based spectra

The study of the atmospheric chemical composition is crucial to understand the climate changes that we are experiencing in the last decades and to monitor the air quality over industrialized areas. The Multi-AXis Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (MAX-DOAS) ground-based instruments are particularly suitable to derive the concentration of some trace gases that absorb the Visible (VIS) and Ultra-Violet (UV) solar radiation. The zenith-sky spectra acquired by the Gas Analyzer Spectrometer Correlating Optical Differences / New Generation 4 (GASCOD/NG4) instrument are exploited to retrieve the NO2 and O3 total Vertical Column Densities (VCDs) over Lecce. The results show that the NO2 total VCDs are significantly affected by the tropospheric content, consequence of the anthropogenic activity. Indeed, they present systematically lower values during Sunday, when less traffic is generally present around the measurement site, and during windy days, especially when the wind direction measured at 2 m height is not from the city of Lecce. Another MAX-DOAS instrument (SkySpec-2D) is exploited to create the first Italian MAX-DOAS site compliant to the Fiducial Reference Measurements for DOAS (FRM4DOAS) standards, in San Pietro Capofiume (SPC), located in the middle of the Po Valley. After the assessment of the SkySpec-2D’s performances through two measurement campaigns taken place in Bologna and in Rome, SkySpec-2D is installed in SPC on the 1st October 2021. Its MAX-DOAS spectra are used to retrieve the NO2 and O3 total VCDs, and aerosol extinction and NO2 tropospheric vertical profiles over the Po Valley exploiting the Bremen Optimal estimation REtrieval for Aerosol and trace gaseS (BOREAS) algorithm. Promising results are found, with high correlations against both in-situ and satellite data. In the future, these data will play an important role for air quality studies over the Po Valley and for satellite validation purposes.

Early-stage deformation localisation in thrust systems: new perspectives from carbonates in the Italian Southern Alps and Oman Mountains

This thesis investigates mechanisms and boundary conditions that steer the early localisation of deformation and strain in carbonate multilayers involved in thrust systems, under shallow and mid-crustal conditions. Much is already understood about deformation localisation, but some key points remain loosely constrained. They encompass i) the understanding of which structural domains can preserve evidence of early stages of tectonic shortening, ii) the recognition of which mechanisms assist deformation during these stages and iii) the identification of parameters that actually steer the beginning of localisation. To clarify these points, the thesis presents the results of an integrated, multiscale and multi-technique structural study that relied on field and laboratory data to analyse the structural, architectural, mineralogical and geochemical features that govern deformation during compressional tectonics. By focusing on two case studies, the Eastern Southern Alps (northern Italy), where deformation is mainly brittle, and the Oman Mountains (northeastern Oman), where ductile deformation dominates, the thesis shows that the deformation localisation is steered by several mechanisms that mutually interact at different stages during compression. At shallow crustal conditions, derived conceptual and numerical models show that both inherited (e.g., stratigraphic) and acquired (e.g., structural) features play a key role in steering deformation and differentiating the seismic behaviour of the multilayer succession. At the same time, at deeper crustal conditions, strain localises in narrow domains in which fluids, temperature, shear strain and pressure act together during the development of the internal fabric and the chemical composition of mylonitic shear zones, in which localisation took place under high-pressure (HP) and low-temperature (LT) conditions. In particular, results indicate that those shear zones acted as “sheltering structural capsules” in which peculiar processes can happen and where the results of these processes can be successively preserved even over hundreds of millions of years.

Analysis of heat-related phenomena and their interactions at different spatio-temporal scales

This thesis analyzes the impact of heat extremes in urban and rural environments, considering processes related to severely high temperatures and unusual dryness. The first part deals with the influence of large-scale heatwave events on the local-scale urban heat island (UHI) effect. The temperatures recorded over a 20-year summer period by meteorological stations in 37 European cities are examined to evaluate the variations of UHI during heatwaves with respect to non-heatwave days. A statistical analysis reveals a negligible impact of large-scale extreme temperatures on the local daytime urban climate, while a notable exacerbation of UHI effect at night. A comparison with the UrbClim model outputs confirms the UHI strengthening during heatwave episodes, with an intensity independent of the climate zone. The investigation of the relationship between large-scale temperature anomalies and UHI highlights a smooth and continuous dependence, but with a strong variability. The lack of a threshold behavior in this relationship suggests that large-scale temperature variability can affect the local-scale UHI even in different conditions than during extreme events. The second part examines the transition from meteorological to agricultural drought, being the first stage of the drought propagation process. A multi-year reanalysis dataset involving numerous drought events over the Iberian Peninsula is considered. The behavior of different non-parametric standardized drought indices in drought detection is evaluated. A statistical approach based on run theory is employed, analyzing the main characteristics of drought propagation. The propagation from meteorological to agricultural drought events is found to develop in about 1-2 months. The duration of agricultural drought appears shorter than that of meteorological drought, but the onset is delayed. The propagation probability increases with the severity of the originating meteorological drought. A new combined agricultural drought index is developed to be a useful tool for balancing the characteristics of other adopted indices.

Toward an understanding of the atmospheric forcing uncertainties in the Mediterranean Sea

The thesis has extensively investigated for the first time the statistical distributions of atmospheric surface variables and heat fluxes for the Mediterranean Sea. After retrieving a 30-year atmospheric analysis dataset, we have captured the spatial patterns of the probability distribution of the relevant atmospheric variables for ocean atmospheric forcing: wind components (U,V), wind amplitude, air temperature (T2M), dewpoint temperature (D2M) and mean sea-level pressure (MSL-P). The study reveals that a two-parameter PDF is not a good fit for T2M, D2M, MSL-P and wind components (U,V) and a three parameter skew-normal PDF is better suited. Such distribution captures properly the data asymmetric tails (skewness). After removing the large seasonal cycle, we show the quality of the fit and the geographic structure of the PDF parameters. It is found that the PDF parameters vary between different regions, in particular the shape (connected to the asymmetric tails) and the scale (connected to the spread of the distribution) parameters cluster around two or more values, probably connected to the different dynamics that produces the surface atmospheric fields in the Mediterranean basin. Moreover, using the atmospheric variables, we have computed the air-sea heat fluxes for a 20-years period and estimated the net heat budget over the Mediterranean Sea. Interestingly, the higher resolution analysis dataset provides a negative heat budget of –3 W/m2 which is within the acceptable range for the Mediterranean Sea heat budget closure. The lower resolution atmospheric reanalysis dataset(ERA5) does not satisfy the heat budget closure problem pointing out that a minimal resolution of the atmospheric forcing is crucial for the Mediterranean Sea dynamics. The PDF framework developed in this thesis will be the basis for a future ensemble forecasting system that will use the statistical distributions to create perturbations of the atmospheric ocean forcing.

Data assimilation for advanced cross-scale unstructured-grid ocean modeling.

The coastal ocean is a complex environment with extremely dynamic processes that require a high-resolution and cross-scale modeling approach in which all hydrodynamic fields and scales are considered integral parts of the overall system. In the last decade, unstructured-grid models have been used to advance in seamless modeling between scales. On the other hand, the data assimilation methodologies to improve the unstructured-grid models in the coastal seas have been developed only recently and need significant advancements. Here, we link the unstructured-grid ocean modeling to the variational data assimilation methods. In particular, we show results from the modeling system SANIFS based on SHYFEM fully-baroclinic unstructured-grid model interfaced with OceanVar, a state-of-art variational data assimilation scheme adopted for several systems based on a structured grid. OceanVar implements a 3DVar DA scheme. The combination of three linear operators models the background error covariance matrix. The vertical part is represented using multivariate EOFs for temperature, salinity, and sea level anomaly. The horizontal part is assumed to be Gaussian isotropic and is modeled using a first-order recursive filter algorithm designed for structured and regular grids. Here we introduced a novel recursive filter algorithm for unstructured grids. A local hydrostatic adjustment scheme models the rapidly evolving part of the background error covariance. We designed two data assimilation experiments using SANIFS implementation interfaced with OceanVar over the period 2017-2018, one with only temperature and salinity assimilation by Argo profiles and the second also including sea level anomaly. The results showed a successful implementation of the approach and the added value of the assimilation for the active tracer fields. While looking at the broad basin, no significant improvements are highlighted for the sea level, requiring future investigations. Furthermore, a Machine Learning methodology based on an LSTM network has been used to predict the model SST increments.

Assessment of sea-level variability for the Emilia-Romagna coastal area in the framework of the Mediterranean Sea

Sea–level change is one of the ocean characteristics closely connected to climate change. Understanding its variation is essential since a large portion of the world’s population is located in low–lying locations. Two main techniques are employed to measure sea level: satellite altimetry and tide gauges. Satellite altimetry monitors sea–level relative to a geocentric reference, is unaffected by crustal processes and covers nearly the entire surface of the oceans since 1993. Conversely, tide gauges measure sea level at specific coastal locations and relative to a local ground benchmark, therefore are impacted by vertical land movements. In this study, the linear and non–linear geocentric and relative sea–level trends along the Emilia–Romagna coast (Northern Italy) have been analyzed over different periods. In order to assess the local sea–level variability, data from satellite altimetry and tide gauges have been compared over a common time interval (1993–2019), hence disentangling the contribute of vertical land movements. Non–linearity has been also evaluated at the broader scale of the Mediterranean Sea, in order to depict the main variability in geocentric sea–level trends from regional to sub–basin scale. Furthermore, the anthropogenic and natural influence at the river basin scale has been addressed, in order to shed light on the factors inducing the drastic reduction of riverine sediment supply to the Emilia–Romagna coast over the period 1920–2020. The findings of this analysis indicate that the sediment delivery reduction to the coast by rivers has been driven by several anthropogenic processes, acting on various spatiotemporal scales. Moreover, the local absolute sea–level trend is far from linear and appear "contaminated" by the presence of natural oscillations that act at the multi–decadal, quasi–decadal and inter–annual scale, mainly driven by both large–scale climatic modes and variations in local oceanography.

Beyond pollinator reward: steps forward and knowledge gaps on the role of floral nectar in plant-animal interactions.

The work done within the framework of my PhD project has been carried out between November 2019 and January 2023 at the Department of Biological, Geological and Environmental Sciences of the University of Bologna, under the supervision of Prof. Marta Galloni and PhD Gherardo Bogo. A period of three months was spent at the Natural History Museum of Rijeka, under the supervision of Prof. Boštjan Surina. The main aim of the thesis was to investigate further the so-called pollinator manipulation hypothesis, which states that when a floral visitor gets in contact with a specific nectar chemistry, the latter affects its behavior of visit on flowers, with potential repercussions on the plant reproductive fitness. To the purpose, the topic was tackled by means of three main approaches: field studies, laboratory assessments, and bibliographic reviews. This research project contributes to two main aspects. First, when insects encounter nectar-like concentrations of a plethora of secondary metabolites in their food-environment, various aspects of their behavior relevant to flower visitation can be affected. In addition, the results I gained confirm that the combination of field studies and laboratory assessments allows to get more realistic pictures of a given phenomenon than the single approaches. Second, reviewing the existent literature in the field of nectar ecology has highlighted how crucial is to establish the origin of nectar biogenic amines to either confirm or reject the multiple speculations made on the role of nectar microbes in shaping plant-animal interactions.

Contaminants of emerging concern in drinking water: assessment of the effectiveness of removal by drinking water treatments and possible risks to human health

Contaminants of emerging concern are increasingly detected in the water cycle, with endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) receiving attention due to their potential to cause adverse health effects even at low concentrations. Although the EU has recently introduced some EDCs into drinking water legislation, most drinking water treatment plants (DWTPs) are not designed to remove EDCs, making their detection and removal in DWTPs an important challenge. The aim of this doctoral project was to investigate hormones and phenolic compounds as suspected EDCs in drinking waters across the Romagna area (Italy). The main objectives were to assess the occurrence of considered contaminants in source and drinking water from three DWTPs, characterize the effectiveness of removal by different water treatment processes, and evaluate the potential biological impact on drinking water and human health. Specifically, a complementary approach of target chemical analysis and effect-based methods was adopted to explore drinking water quality, treatment efficacy, and biological potential. This study found that nonylphenol (NP) was prevalent in all samples, followed by BPA. Sporadic contamination of hormones was found only in source waters. Although the measured EDC concentrations in drinking water did not exceed threshold guideline values, the potential role of DWTPs as an additional source of EDC contamination should be considered. Significant increases in BPA and NP levels were observed during water treatment steps, which were also reflected in estrogenic and mutagenic responses in water samples after the ultrafiltration. This highlights the need to monitor water quality during various treatment processes to improve the efficiency of DWTPs. Biological assessments on finished water did not reveal any bioactivity, except for few treated water samples that exhibited estrogenic responses. Overall, the data emphasize the high quality of produced drinking water and the value of applying integrated chemical analysis and in vitro bioassays for water quality assessment.

Structural and stratigraphic control on hypogene dissolution in carbonate rocks: case studies of cave analogues and implications for karst reservoirs

The aim of this research is to improve the understanding of the factors that control the formation of karst porosity in hypogene settings and its associated patterns of void-conduit networks. Subsurface voids created by hypogene dissolution may span from few microns to decametric tubes providing interconnected conduit systems and forming highly anisotropic permeability domains in many reservoirs. Characterizing the spatial-morphological organization of hypogene karst is a challenging task that has dramatic implications for the applied industry, given that only partial data can be acquired from the subsurface by indirect techniques. Therefore, two outcropping cave analogues are examined: the Cavallone-Bove Cave in the Majella Massif (Italy), and the karst systems of the Salitre Formation (Brazil). In the latter, a peculiar example of hypogene speleogenesis associated with silicification has been studied, providing an analogue of many karstified reservoirs hosted in cherts or cherty-carbonates within mixed sedimentary sequences. The first part of the thesis is focused on the relationships between fracture patterns and flow pathways in deformed units in: 1) a fold-and-thrust setting (Majella Massif); 2) a cratonic block (Brazil). These settings represent potential playgrounds for the migration and accumulation of geofluids, where hypogene conduits may affect flow pathways, fluid storage, and reservoir properties. The results indicate that localized deformation producing cross-formational fracture zones associated with anticline hinges or fault damage zones is critical for hypogene fluid migration and karstification. The second part of the thesis deals with the multidisciplinary study of hydrothermal silicification and hypogene dissolution in Calixto Cave (Brazil). Petrophysical analyses and a geochemical characterization of silica deposits are used to unravel the spatial-morphological organization of the conduit system and its speleogenesis. The novel results obtained from this cave shed new light on the relationship between hydrothermal silicification, hypogene dissolution and the development of multistorey cave systems in layered carbonate-siliciclastic sequences.

Governing the water conservation in the Urmia Lake Basin: addressing macro systems’ fit and micro users’ behavior

To change unadapted water governing systems, and water users’ traditional conducts in line with climate change, understanding of systems’ structures and users’ behaviors is necessary. To this aim, comprehensive and pragmatic research was designed and implemented in the Urmia Lake Basin where due to the severe droughts, and human-made influences, especially through the agricultural development, the lake has been shrunken drastically. To analyze the water governance and conservation issues in the basin, an innovative framework was developed based on mathematical physics concepts and pro-environmental behavior theories. Accordingly, in system level (macro/meso), the problem of fit of the early-shaped water governing system associating with the function of “political-security” and “political-economic” factors in the basin was identified through mean-field models. Furthermore, the effect of a “political-environmental” factor, the Urmia Lake Restoration Program (ULRP), on reforming the system structure and hence its fit was assessed. The analysis results revealed that by revising the provincial boundaries (horizontal alternation) for the entity of Kurdistan province to permit that interact with the headquarter of West Azerbaijan province for its water demand-supply initiatives, the system fit can increase. Also, the constitution of the ULRP (vertical arrangement) not only could increase the structural fit of the water governing system to the basin, but also significantly could enhance the system fit through its water-saving policy. Besides, in individual level (micro), the governing factors of water conservation behavior of the major users/farmers were identified through rational and moral socio-psychological models. In rational approach, incorporating PMT and TPB, the SEM results demonstrated that “Perceived Vulnerability”, “Self-Efficacy”, “Response Efficacy”, “Response Cost”, “Subjective Norms” and “Institutional Trust” significantly affect the water-saving intention/behavior. Likewise, NAM based analysis as a moral approach, uncovered the significant effects of “Awareness of Consequences”, “Appraisal of Responsibility”, “Personal Norms” as well as “Place Attachment” and “Emotions” on water-saving intention.

Exploiting spectrally resolved satellite observations to assess the performance of climate models

The accurate representation of the Earth Radiation Budget by General Circulation Models (GCMs) is a fundamental requirement to provide reliable historical and future climate simulations. In this study, we found reasonable agreement between the integrated energy fluxes at the top of the atmosphere simulated by 34 state-of-the-art climate models and the observations provided by the Cloud and Earth Radiant Energy System (CERES) mission on a global scale, but large regional biases have been detected throughout the globe. Furthermore, we highlighted that a good agreement between simulated and observed integrated Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) fluxes may be obtained from the cancellation of opposite-in-sign systematic errors, localized in different spectral ranges. To avoid this and to understand the causes of these biases, we compared the observed Earth emission spectra, measured by the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) in the period 2008-2016, with the synthetic radiances computed on the basis of the atmospheric fields provided by the EC-Earth GCM. To this purpose, the fast σ-IASI radiative transfer model was used, after its validation and implementation in EC-Earth. From the comparison between observed and simulated spectral radiances, a positive temperature bias in the stratosphere and a negative temperature bias in the middle troposphere, as well as a dry bias of the water vapor concentration in the upper troposphere, have been identified in the EC-Earth climate model. The analysis has been performed in clear-sky conditions, but the feasibility of its extension in the presence of clouds, whose impact on the radiation represents the greatest source of uncertainty in climate models, has also been proven. Finally, the analysis of simulated and observed OLR trends indicated good agreement and provided detailed information on the spectral fingerprints of the evolution of the main climate variables.