Waiting for chikungunya fever in Argentina: spatio-temporal risk maps

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) transmission has been detected in America in 2013 and recently reached south up to Bolivia, Brazil and Paraguay, bordering countries of Argentina. The presence of the mosquito Aedes aegyptiin half of the country together with the regional context drove us to make a rapid assessment of transmission risk. Temperature thresholds for vector breeding and for virus transmission, together with adult activity from the literature, were mapped on a monthly basis to estimate risk. Transmission of chikungunya byAe. aegyptiin the world was seen at monthly mean temperatures from 21-34ºC, with the majority occurring between 26-28ºC. In Argentina temperatures above 21ºC are observed since September in the northeast, expanding south until January and retreating back to the northeast in April. The maximum area under risk encompasses more than half the country and around 32 million inhabitants. Vector adult activity was registered where monthly means temperatures exceeded 13ºC, in the northeast all over the year and in the northern half from September-May. The models herein proposed show that conditions for transmission are already present. Considering the regional context and the historic inability to control dengue in the region, chikungunya fever illness seems unavoidable.

Initial complications and factors related to prehospital mortality in acute myocardial infarction with ST segment elevation.

OBJECTIVE Hospital mortality in myocardial infarction ST-elevation myocardial infarction has decreased in recent years, in contrast to prehospital mortality. Our objective was to determine initial complications and factors related to prehospital mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction with ST segment elevation (STEMI). METHODS Observational study based on a prospective continuous register of patients of any age attended by out-of-hospital emergency teams in Andalusia between January 2006 and June 2009. This includes patients with acute coronary syndrome-like symptoms whose initial ECG showed ST elevation or presumably new left bundle branch block (LBBB). Epidemiological, prehospital data and final diagnostic were recorded. The study included all patients with STEMI on the register, without age restrictions. Forward stepwise logistic regression analysis was performed to control for confounders. RESULTS A total of 2528 patients were included, 24% were women. Mean age 63.4±13.4 years; 16.7% presented atypical clinical symptoms. Initial complications: ventricular fibrillation (VF) 8.4%, severe bradycardia 5.8%, third-degree atrial-ventricular (AV) block 2.4% and hypotension 13.5%. Fifty-two (2.1%) patients died before reaching hospital. Factors associated with prehospital mortality were female sex (OR 2.36, CI 1.28 to 4.33), atypical clinical picture (OR 2.31, CI 1.21 to 4.41), hypotension (OR 4.95, CI 2.60 to 9.20), LBBB (OR 4.29, CI 1.71 to 10.74), extensive infarction (ST elevation in ≥5 leads) (OR 2.53, CI 1.28 to 5.01) and VF (OR 2.82, CI 1.38 to 5.78). CONCLUSIONS A significant proportion of patients with STEMI present early complications in the prehospital setting, and some die before reaching hospital. Prehospital mortality was associated with female sex and atypical presentation, as pre-existing conditions, and hypotension, extensive infarction, LBBB and VF on emergency team attendance.

Anopheles darlingi polytene chromosomes: revised maps including newly described inversions and evidence for population structure in Manaus

Salivary gland polytene chromosomes of 4th instar Anopheles darlingi Root were examined from multiple locations in the Brazilian Amazon. Minor modifications were made to existing polytene photomaps. These included changes to the breakpoint positions of several previously described paracentric inversions and descriptions of four new paracentric inversions, two on the right arm of chromosome 3 and two on the left arm of chromosome 3 that were found in multiple locations. A total of 18 inversions on the X (n = 1) chromosome, chromosome 2 (n = 7) and 3 (n = 11) were scored for 83 individuals from Manaus, Macapá and Porto Velho municipalities. The frequency of 2Ra inversion karyotypes in Manaus shows significant deficiency of heterozygotes (p < 0.0009). No significant linkage disequilibrium was found between inversions on chromosome 2 and 3. We hypothesize that at least two sympatric subpopulations exist within the An. darlingi population at Manaus based on inversion frequencies.

Holomorphic maps between moduli spaces

We prove that every non-constant holomorphic map&em&M&/em&&sub&g,p&/sub&→ &em&M&/em&&sub& g',p'&/sub& between moduli spaces of Riemann surfaces is a forgetful map, provided that g ≥ 6 and g' ≤ 2g-2.

Diaspore traits discriminate good from weak colonisers on high elevation summits

The richness of plant species in Swiss alpine-nival summits increased during the climate warming of the 20th century. Thirty-seven summits (2797-3418 m a.s.l.) with both old (~1900-1920) and recent (~2000) plant inventories were used to test whether biological species traits can explain the observed rates of summit colonisation. Species were classified into two groups: good colonisers (colonising five or more summits) and weak colonisers (fewer than five new summits). We compared species traits related to growth, reproduction and dispersal between these two groups and between the good colonisers and a group of high alpine grassland species. The observed colonisation pattern was subsequently compared to a simulated random colonisation pattern. The distribution of new species on the summits was not random, and 16 species exhibited a colonisation rate higher than expected by chance. Taraxacum alpinum aggr. and Cardamine resedifolia were the best colonisers. Results showed that diaspore traits enhancing long-distance dispersal were more frequent among good colonisers than among weak colonisers. Good colonisers were mostly characterised by pappi or narrow wings on their diaspores. Both groups were able to grow on soils more bare and rocky than species from the alpine grasslands. All other biological traits that we considered were similar among the three alpine species groups. These results are important for improving predictive models of species distribution under climate change

Integración de Google Maps y TSP Solvers para la definición y resolución del TSP

Este trabajo final de carrera presenta la arquitectura e implementación de un entorno web para la descripción y visualización de instancias reales del TSP (Travelling Salesman Problem), a través de Google Maps, y su posterior resoluación mediante tècnicas de optimización combinatoria.

Identification of potential rockfall source areas at a regional scale using a DEM-based geomorphometric analysis

The availability of high resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEM) at a regional scale enables the analysis of topography with high levels of detail. Hence, a DEM-based geomorphometric approach becomes more accurate for detecting potential rockfall sources. Potential rockfall source areas are identified according to the slope angle distribution deduced from high resolution DEM crossed with other information extracted from geological and topographic maps in GIS format. The slope angle distribution can be decomposed in several Gaussian distributions that can be considered as characteristic of morphological units: rock cliffs, steep slopes, footslopes and plains. A terrain is considered as potential rockfall sources when their slope angles lie over an angle threshold, which is defined where the Gaussian distribution of the morphological unit "Rock cliffs" become dominant over the one of "Steep slopes". In addition to this analysis, the cliff outcrops indicated by the topographic maps were added. They contain however "flat areas", so that only the slope angles values above the mode of the Gaussian distribution of the morphological unit "Steep slopes" were considered. An application of this method is presented over the entire Canton of Vaud (3200 km2), Switzerland. The results were compared with rockfall sources observed on the field and orthophotos analysis in order to validate the method. Finally, the influence of the cell size of the DEM is inspected by applying the methodology over six different DEM resolutions.

Using a Parameterization of a Radiative Transfer Model to Build High-Resolution Maps of Typical Clear-Sky UV Index in Catalonia, Spain

To perform a climatic analysis of the annual UV index (UVI) variations in Catalonia, Spain (northeast of the Iberian Peninsula), a new simple parameterization scheme is presented based on a multilayer radiative transfer model. The parameterization performs fast UVI calculations for a wide range of cloudless and snow-free situations and can be applied anywhere. The following parameters are considered: solar zenith angle, total ozone column, altitude, aerosol optical depth, and single-scattering albedo. A sensitivity analysis is presented to justify this choice with special attention to aerosol information. Comparisons with the base model show good agreement, most of all for the most common cases, giving an absolute error within 0.2 in the UVI for a wide range of cases considered. Two tests are done to show the performance of the parameterization against UVI measurements. One uses data from a high-quality spectroradiometer from Lauder, New Zealand [45.04°S, 169.684°E, 370 m above mean sea level (MSL)], where there is a low presence of aerosols. The other uses data from a Robertson–Berger-type meter from Girona, Spain (41.97°N, 2.82°E, 100 m MSL), where there is more aerosol load and where it has been possible to study the effect of aerosol information on the model versus measurement comparison. The parameterization is applied to a climatic analysis of the annual UVI variation in Catalonia, showing the contributions of solar zenith angle, ozone, and aerosols. High-resolution seasonal maps of typical UV index values in Catalonia are presented

Functional diversity decreases with temperature in high elevation ant fauna

1. Severe environmental conditions filter community species compositions, forming clines of functional diversity along environmental gradients. Here, the changes in functional diversity in ant assemblages with severe environmental conditions in the Swiss Alps were investigated. 2. Eight sites were sampled along an elevation gradient (1800-2550 m). The variation in functional diversity was analysed along an elevation gradient considering four traits: social structure (monogynous vs. polygynous), worker size, pupal development, and nest structure. 3. Ant species richness and functional diversity decreased with decreasing temperature. Species found in colder habitats tended to live in subterranean nests rather than in mounds and exhibit a polymorphism in queen number, either within or across populations. The phylogenetic diversity did not decrease at colder temperature: Formicinae and Myrmicinae occupied the full range of elevations investigated. 4. An insulation experiment indicated that mounds are more thermally insulated against the cold compared with soil. The absence of a mound-building ant from high elevations probably results from a reduction in the amount of vegetal materials provided by coniferous trees. 5. More severe abiotic conditions at higher elevations act as a filter on ant assemblages, directly through physiological tolerances to the abiotic conditions and indirectly as the vegetation necessary for nest building shifts with elevation.</list-item

Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale

The development of susceptibility maps for debris flows is of primary importance due to population pressure in hazardous zones. However, hazard assessment by processbased modelling at a regional scale is difficult due to the complex nature of the phenomenon, the variability of local controlling factors, and the uncertainty in modelling parameters. A regional assessment must consider a simplified approach that is not highly parameter dependant and that can provide zonation with minimum data requirements. A distributed empirical model has thus been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using essentially a digital elevation model (DEM). The model is called Flow-R for Flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a Regional scale (available free of charge under www.flow-r.org) and has been successfully applied to different case studies in various countries with variable data quality. It provides a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. The model was also found relevant to assess other natural hazards such as rockfall, snow avalanches and floods. The model allows for automatic source area delineation, given user criteria, and for the assessment of the propagation extent based on various spreading algorithms and simple frictional laws.We developed a new spreading algorithm, an improved version of Holmgren's direction algorithm, that is less sensitive to small variations of the DEM and that is avoiding over-channelization, and so produces more realistic extents. The choices of the datasets and the algorithms are open to the user, which makes it compliant for various applications and dataset availability. Amongst the possible datasets, the DEM is the only one that is really needed for both the source area delineation and the propagation assessment; its quality is of major importance for the results accuracy. We consider a 10m DEM resolution as a good compromise between processing time and quality of results. However, valuable results have still been obtained on the basis of lower quality DEMs with 25m resolution.

High elevation Plantago lanceolata plants are less resistant to herbivory than their low elevation conspecifics: is it just temperature?

Traits that mediate species interactions are evolutionarily shaped by biotic and abiotic drivers, yet we know relatively little about the relative importance of these factors. Herbivore pressure, along with resource availability and third-party' mutualists, are hypothesized to play a major role in the evolution of plant defence traits. Here, we used the model system Plantago lanceolata, which grows along steep elevation gradients in the Swiss Alps, to investigate the effect of elevation, herbivore pressure, mycorrhizal inoculation and temperature on plant resistance. Over a 1200 m elevation gradient, the levels of herbivory and iridoid glycosides (IGs) declined with increasing elevation. By planting seedlings at three different elevations, we further showed that both low-elevation growing conditions and mycorrhizal inoculation resulted in increased plant resistance to herbivores. Finally, using a temperature-controlled experiment comparing high- and low-elevation ecotypes, we showed that high-elevation ecotypes are less resistant to herbivory, and that lower temperatures impair IGs deployment after herbivore attack. We thus propose that both lower herbivore pressure, and colder temperatures relax the defense syndrome of high elevation plants.

Distribuição Espacial da Susceptibilidade à Erosão Hídrica nas Bacias das Ribeiras de Picos e Seca (Santiago, Cabo Verde)

Os processos de erosão hídrica em Cabo Verde são os mais marcantes da dinâmica actual das vertentes, pois são os mais comuns e que afectam áreas extensasdurante a curta estação húmida de três meses. A ocorrência de episódios chuvosos concentrados no tempo e com uma evidente irregularidade espacial permitem umaacentuada erosividade das precipitações, marcada por uma forte irregularidade regional. A forte variabilidade das formas de relevo, a diversidade da natureza das unidadesgeológicas e a multiplicidade de ocupação do solo favorecem condições deerodibilidade muito contrastadas no espaço. O objectivo deste trabalho é estabelecer um modelo desusceptibilidade à erosão hídricaem função de factores geomorfológicos (declive, perfil e traçado das vertentes eerodibilidade das unidades litológicas e dos materiais de cobertura), climáticos(intensidade pluviométrica) e de ocupação do solo para as bacias das ribeiras dos Picose Seca. Os resultados foram obtidos com recurso ao ambiente de Sistemas deInformação Geográfica (SIG). Este trabalho surge na sequência de outros já realizadospelos autores, onde se apresentaram as condições de erodibilidade e erosividade paraáreas mais restritas da Ilha de Santiago. O modelo de susceptibilidade à erosão hídrica resultou do cruzamento dos mapas dedeclives, de perfil e do traçado das vertentes, obtidos a partir do modelo digital deterreno (DTM), do mapa geológico, da distribuição espacial da intensidadepluviométrica e da densidade de ocupação do solo, tendo em conta que são estas asprincipais condicionantes de erosão hídrica, referidas pelos autores que estudaram estaregião. Cada um destes mapas foi reclassificado com base numa análise qualitativa dograu de erodibilidade, sendo atribuído um número de ordem a cada classe, em função da sua susceptibilidade à erosão hídrica, conforme foi localmente reconhecido. Verifica-se que as áreas de maior susceptibilidade à erosão hídrica são as do sectorsudeste da bacia da Ribeira Seca e as vertentes dos principais vales da bacia da Ribeira dos Picos, onde se encontram as unidades geológicas mais friáveis, os declives mais acentuados e onde predominam sectores das vertentes de traçado côncavo, a que seassocia pontualmente a mais elevada intensidade pluviométrica.

Susceptibilidade à Erosão Hídrica na Bacia da Ribeira Seca (Santiago, Cabo Verde)

Na Ilha de Santiago, em Cabo Verde, a erosão hídrica é o processo que afecta áreas mais extensas. A ocorrência de aguaceiros intensos e concentrados no tempo e no espaço promovem uma marcada erosividade das precipitações, com forte irregularidade regional. A grande variabilidade dos declives e das formas das vertentes, associadas à diversidade litológica, bem como à multiplicidade de ocupação do solo, permitem condições de erodibilidade muito contrastadas no espaço. O objectivo deste trabalho é obter um mapa de susceptibilidade à erosão hídrica para a bacia da Ribeira Seca (Santiago oriental) com base no modelo digital do terreno (MDT), nos mapas geológico e de ocupação do solo e na distribuição da erosividade das precipitações. Verifica-se que o sector sudeste da bacia é o mais susceptível à erosão hídrica, pois nele ocorrem a maior concentração diária das precipitações e as condições geomorfológicas e de coberto do solo de mais elevada erodibilidade.

Ratio maps and correspondence analysis

We compare two methods for visualising contingency tables and developa method called the ratio map which combines the good properties of both.The first is a biplot based on the logratio approach to compositional dataanalysis. This approach is founded on the principle of subcompositionalcoherence, which assures that results are invariant to considering subsetsof the composition. The second approach, correspondence analysis, isbased on the chi-square approach to contingency table analysis. Acornerstone of correspondence analysis is the principle of distributionalequivalence, which assures invariance in the results when rows or columnswith identical conditional proportions are merged. Both methods may bedescribed as singular value decompositions of appropriately transformedmatrices. Correspondence analysis includes a weighting of the rows andcolumns proportional to the margins of the table. If this idea of row andcolumn weights is introduced into the logratio biplot, we obtain a methodwhich obeys both principles of subcompositional coherence and distributionalequivalence.