Party Members as an Electoral Linking Mechanism

While party membership figures are clearly in decline in several Western countries, different interpretations have been offered on the likely consequences of this trend. Some authors stress that members have lost most of their importance for political parties that increasingly rely on professionalized campaign techniques. Other scholars have expressed concern about the decline of party membership. They emphasize the fact that party members continue to function as an important linkage mechanism providing a structural alignment between the party and society (and thus also to potential voters). By means of an election forecasting model for Belgium, we test whether party membership figures still can be related to election results. Results show that party membership has a strong effect on election results, and furthermore, that this relation does not weaken during the period under investigation (1981-2010). The analysis also demonstrates that forecasting models can also be used in a complex multiparty system like Belgium.

Political Sophistication and Vote Intention Switching

This article investigates the link between political sophistication and electoral volatility. Showing that there is disagreement in the literature on whether switching party preferences is related to low or high levels of political sophistication, it is then argued that the effect of sophistication on vote switching might differ depending on when switching is measured. The effect of timing on volatility is investigated by means of the Short-term panel of the 2009 German Longitudinal Election Study. Results indicate that timing indeed matters, while sophistication increases the probability of switching parties before the campaign, the effect of political sophistication becomes more negative as Election Day draws near.

The Relation Between Civic Education and Political Attitudes and Behavior

It is generally assumed that civic education efforts will have a positive effect on the political attitudes and behaviors of adolescents and young adults. There is less agreement, however, on the most effective forms of civic education. In the present study, we distinguish between formal civic education, an open classroom climate and active learning strategies, and we explore their effect on political interest, efficacy, trust and participation. To analyze these effects, we rely on the results of a two-year panel study among late adolescents in Belgium. The results indicate that formal civic education (classroom instruction) and active learning strategies (school council membership and, to a lesser extent, group projects) are effective in shaping political attitudes and behavior. An open classroom climate, on the other hand, has an effect on political trust. We conclude that there is no reason to privilege specific forms of civic education, as each form contributes to different relevant political attitudes and behaviors.

Los partidos políticos en Colombia; breve ojeada histórica, la obra administrativa de los partidos, progresos materiales, adelantos en las instituciones y en las leyes, el último proceso electoral ... la convención de Ibagué ...

Mode of access: Internet.

Mixed-Member Electoral Systems in Constitutional Context : Taiwan, Japan, and Beyond /

After the electoral reform in 1994, Japan saw a gradual evolution from a multi-party system toward a two-party system over the course of five House of Representatives election cycles. In contrast, after Taiwan’s constitutional amendment in 2005, a two-party system emerged in the first post-reform legislative election in 2008. Critically, however, Taiwan’s president is directly elected while Japan’s prime minister is indirectly elected. The contributors conclude that the higher the payoffs of holding the executive office and the greater degree of cross-district coordination required to win it, the stronger the incentives for elites to form and stay in the major parties. In such a context, a country will move rapidly toward a two-party system. In Part II, the contributors apply this theoretical logic to other countries with mixed-member systems to demonstrate its generality. They find the effect of executive competition on legislative electoral rules in countries as disparate as Thailand, the Philippines, New Zealand, Bolivia, and Russia. The findings presented in this book have important implications for political reform. Often, reformers are motivated by high hopes of solving some political problems and enhancing the quality of democracy. But, as this group of scholars demonstrates, electoral reform alone is not a panacea. Whether and to what extent it achieves the advocated goals depends not only on the specification of new electoral rules per se but also on the political context—and especially the constitutional framework—within which such rules are embedded.

A political crime; the history of the great fraud,

Deals with the Hayes-Tilden presidential contest.

The natural jurisprudence of Jean Barbeyrac: translation as an art of political adjustment

The article makes the case for redescribing Jean Barbeyrac [1674-1744], the great French translator and influential glossator of seventeenth-century Latin natural-law texts, as something quite other than a neutral mediator of Samuel Pufendorf. To consider the specific religious and political charge of his strategies as translator is to recognize the independence of Barbeyrac's Huguenot stance on natura; jurisprudence. This stance is provoked by the profound challenge that Pufendorf's radical post-Wespthalian secularizing of civil authority posed for a Huguenot: how to grant that the state had legitimate authority to regulate all external conduct, but at the same time preserve an inviolable moral space for the exercise of individual conscience. The argument--pointing to Barbeyrac's construction of a 'Lockeanized' Pufendorf--rests both on his famous presentation of Leibniz's critique of Pufendorf's De officio hominis et civis and on more neglected elements of Barbeyrac's corpus.

WENCESLAU BRAZ E A POLÍTICA CAFÉ COM LEITE: Estratégias de comunicação e marketing político que o elegeram Presidente da República do Brasil

Esta pesquisa retratou o processo de comunicação e marketing político na vida pública de Wenceslau Braz, presidente do Brasil de 1914 a 1918. Ela abordou a política brasileira daquela época e mostrou as estratégias de convencimento usadas para indicação do mineiro ao cargo, revelando de que maneira a imprensa da época reagiu nesse período eleitoral. A metodologia que norteou essa dissertação foi a de Estudo de Caso , baseado nos conceitos básicos de Robert Yin, onde foram realizados vários estudos bibliográficos, documentais e entrevistas com familiares e amigos de Wenceslau. Complementarmente quatro publicações da imprensa brasileira foram analisadas. Conclui-se que a participação da imprensa nesse processo foi bem irrelevante e o processo eleitoral foi ditado pelo regime político da época.

DILMA PRESIDENTA A REPERCUSSÃO DA COMUNICAÇÃO POLÍTICA PARA VIABILIZAR A ELEIÇÃO DA PRIMEIRA MULHER A GOVERNAR O BRASIL PELA ÓPTICA DAS REVISTAS VEJA E CARTACAPITAL

A presente dissertação tem como tema o impacto da comunicação política na cobertura da grande imprensa durante a pré-candidatura de Dilma Vana Rousseff à presidência da República. O objetivo é verificar quais estratégias de marketing político utilizadas para viabilizar o nome da pré-candidata foram retratadas nas revistas Veja e CartaCapital entre março de 2008 e abril de 2010, período que antecedeu a indicação oficial da sucessora do então presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Para desenvolver a dissertação foram discutidos conceitos de comunicação política, marketing político e eleitoral, bem como as questões de gênero na política e na sociedade brasileira e o percurso feminino na luta pela igualdade de direitos, que transformaram o imaginário social em relação ao papel da mulher. Também foram tratados temas como jornalismo e cobertura política no Brasil e um breve panorama sobre a trajetória política do Brasil pós-ditadura, além do perfil biográfico de Dilma Rousseff. A importância desta pesquisa está justamente em verificar como repercutiu na imprensa a pré-candidatura de uma mulher ao cargo público mais elevado no país, considerando as dificuldades e os desafios da luta feminina na política brasileira. Trata-se de um estudo quantitativo e qualitativo, com uso de técnica de análise de conteúdo que de acordo com Laurence Bardin inclui perspectivas quantitativas e qualitativas. Com a pesquisa foi possível verificar que a questão do gênero foi um dos fatores que influenciaram positivamente as eleições e, principalmente que a repercussão obtida nas revistas foi positiva às intenções de marketing político para viabilizar a candidatura de Dilma Rousseff à sucessão presidencial.

OS JINGLES ELEITORAIS NAS CAMPANHAS PRESIDENCIAIS BRASILEIRAS

O objetivo deste trabalho é resgatar os principais jingles utilizados nas campanhas eleitorais presidenciais com voto direto no Brasil, sob a ótica da propaganda e do marketing político-eleitoral e dentro do contexto social de cada época, procurando descobrir o que eles apresentam em comum. A ideia é descrever as letras das músicas eleitorais e como estas foram usadas como peças publicitárias nas campanhas eleitorais. Para tanto, será efetuado um levantamento e análise em peças de áudio na história fonográfica, na história do rádio e da TV, em busca dessas músicas (jingles), contextualizando e relatando as estratégias utilizadas com essas peças. Uma pesquisa bibliográfica será efetuada com o intuito de conhecer o contexto social e político de cada época, para comparar a letra e o ritmo utilizado em cada jingle.(AU)

INFLUÊNCIA DA COMUNICAÇÃO POLÍTICA NO SISTEMA DE VOTAÇÃO ELETRÔNICO BRASILEIRO

A velocidade da informação e do conhecimento instaurou na sociedade contemporânea uma constante busca pela melhoria dos processos informacionais, com vistas a garantir maior rapidez nos processamentos e resultados. No universo público, as exigências caminham de modo similar, sob o olhar do eleitor cidadão, portanto, a proposta da pesquisa é promover um panorama do sistema eletrônico de votação brasileiro, mais precisamente a Urna Eletrônica e transitar desde a concepção do projeto nos idos da década de 90 até o momento atual, apontando um olhar científico para as ações comunicacionais do Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE), no sentido de promover campanhas publicitárias para fomentar a conscientização do sistema informatizado de voto pelos eleitores, supostamente mais rápido e eficiente. A pesquisa utiliza para fins descritivos múltiplas visões da comunicação da urna: por intermédio do órgão mantenedor, os políticos, diretamente envolvidos no pleito competitivo e os consultores políticos, atuantes nas estratégias de bastidores das campanhas eleitorais. Essa diversidade de visões e posições acerca da credibilidade do sistema busca propiciar a pesquisa um caráter de macro compreensão dos impactos de um sistema informatizado em um ambiente democrático.(AU)

Essays on Development Policy and the Political Economy of Conflict

Electoral Rules and Leader Selection: Experimental Evidence from Ugandan Community Groups. Despite a large body of work documenting how electoral systems affect policy outcomes, less is known about their impact on leader selection. We study this by comparing two types of participatory decision making in Ugandan community groups: (i) vote by secret ballot and (ii) open discussion with consensus. Random assignment allows us to estimate the causal impact of the rules on leader types and social service delivery. Vote groups are found to elect leaders more similar to the average member while discussion group leaders are positively selected on socio-economic characteristics. Further, dropout rates are significantly higher in discussion groups, particularly for poorer members. After 3.5 years, vote groups are larger in size and their members save less and get smaller loans. We conclude that the secret ballot vote creates more inclusive groups while open discussion groups favor the already economically successful. Preparing for Genocide: Community Meetings in Rwanda. How do political elites prepare the civilian population for participation in violent conflict? We empirically investigate this question using data from the Rwandan Genocide in 1994. Every Saturday before 1994, Rwandan villagers had to meet to work on community infrastructure. The practice was highly politicized and, according to anecdotal evidence, regularly used by the political elites for spreading propaganda in the years before the genocide. This paper presents the first quantitative evidence of this abuse of the community meetings. To establish causality, we exploit cross-sectional variation in meeting intensity induced by exogenous weather fluctuations. We find that an additional rainy Saturday resulted in a five percent lower civilian participation rate in genocide violence. Selection into Borrowing: Survey Evidence from Uganda. In this paper, I study how changes to the standard credit contract affect loan demand and selection into borrowing, using a representative sample of urban micro enterprises, most with no borrowing experience. Hypothetical loan demand questions are used to test whether firm owners respond to changes in loans' contractual terms and whether take-up varies by firms' risk type and other firm owner characteristics. The results indicate that contracts with lower interest rates and less stringent collateral requirements attract less risky borrowers, suggesting that there is scope for improvement of standard financial contract terms. Credit Contract Structure and Firm Growth: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial. We study the effects of credit contract structure on firm outcomes among small and medium sized firms. A randomized control trial was carried out to distinguish between some of the key constraints to efficient credit use connected to the firms' business environment and production function, namely (i) backloaded returns (ii) uncertain returns and (iii) indivisible fixed costs. Each firm was followed for the 1-year loan cycle. We describe the experiment and present preliminary results from the first 754 out of 2,340 firms to have completed the loan cycle. Firms offered a grace period have higher profits and higher household income than firms receiving a rebate later on as well as the control group. They also increased the number of paid employees  and reduced the number of unpaid employees, an effect also found among firms that received a cash subsidy at the beginning of the loan cycle. We discuss potential mechanisms behind these effects.

Meeting the challenge on the path to democracy: discursive strategies in governmental declarations

The communicative practice in the ex-GDR was complex and diverse, although public political discourse had been fairly ritualized. Text-types characteristic of the Communist Party discourse were full of general (superordinate) terms semantic specification was hardly possible (propositional reduction). Changes in the social world result in changes in the communicative practice as well. However, a systematic comparision of text-types across cultures and across ideological boundaries reveals both differences in the textual macro- and superstructures and overlapping as well as universal features, probably related to functional aspects (discourse of power). Six sample texts of the text-type `government declaration', two produced in the ex-GDR, four in the united Germany, are analysed. Special attention is paid to similarities and differences (i) in the textual superstructure (problem-solution schema), (ii) in the concepts that reflect the aims of political actions (simple worlds), (iii) in the agents who (are to) perform these actions (concrete vs abstract agents). Similarities are found mainly in the discursive strategies, e.g. legitimization text actions. Differences become obvious in the strategies used for legitimization, and also in the conceptual domains referred to by the problem-solution schema. The metaphors of construction, path and challenge are of particular interest in this respect.