A non-linear analysis of lying a floating pipeline on the seabed

In this article, a model for the determination of displacements, deformations and tensions of a submarine pipeline during the construction is presented. The process is carried out from an initial floating situation to the final laying position on the seabed. The existence of currents and small waves are also considered. Firstly, this technique, usually applied to polyethylene pipelines, is described in this paper as well as some real world examples, as well as the variables that can be modified to control the behavior of the structure. A detailed description of the actions in this process is considered, specially the ones related to marine environment, as Archimedes force, current and sea waves. The behavior of the pipeline is modeled with a non linear elasto dynamic model where geometric non linearities are taken into account. A 3-D beam model, without cross section deformation effects, is developed. Special care is taken in the numerical analysis, developed within an updated lagrangian formulation framework, with the sea bed contact, the follower forces due to the external water pressures and the dynamic actions. Finally, some subroutines are implemented into ANSYS to simulate the two dimensional case, where the whole construction process is achieved. With this software, a sensibility analysis of the bending moments, axial forces and stresses obtained with different values of the control variables in order to optimize the construction steps. These control variables are, the axial load in the pipe, the inundated inner length and the distance of the control barge from the coast.

Essays on Firm Heterogeneity with Empirical Applications in Economic History and Agricultural Economics

This thesis uses models of firm-heterogeneity to complete empirical analyses in economic history and agricultural economics. In Chapter 2, a theoretical model of firm heterogeneity is used to derive a statistic that summarizes the welfare gains from the introduction of a new technology. The empirical application considers the use of mechanical steam power in the Canadian manufacturing sector during the late nineteenth century. I exploit exogenous variation in geography to estimate several parameters of the model. My results indicate that the use of steam power resulted in a 15.1 percent increase in firm-level productivity and a 3.0-5.2 percent increase in aggregate welfare. Chapter 3 considers various policy alternatives to price ceiling legislation in the market for production quotas in the dairy farming sector in Quebec. I develop a dynamic model of the demand for quotas with farmers that are heterogeneous in their marginal cost of milk production. The econometric analysis uses farm-level data and estimates a parameter of the theoretical model that is required for the counterfactual experiments. The results indicate that the price of quotas could be reduced to the ceiling price through a 4.16 percent expansion of the aggregate supply of quotas, or through moderate trade liberalization of Canadian dairy products. In Chapter 4, I study the relationship between farm-level productivity and participation in the Commercial Export Milk (CEM) program. I use a difference-in-difference research design with inverse propensity weights to test for causality between participation in the CEM program and total factor productivity (TFP). I find a positive correlation between participation in the CEM program and TFP, however I find no statistically significant evidence that the CEM program affected TFP.

Does the growth in higher education mean a decline in the quality of degrees? CEPS Working Document No. 405/March 2015

In this paper the authors construct a theory about how the expansion of higher education could be associated with several factors that indicate a decline in the quality of degrees. They assume that the expansion of tertiary education takes place through three channels, and show how these channels are likely to reduce average study time, lower academic requirements and average wages, and inflate grades. First, universities have an incentive to increase their student body through public and private funding schemes beyond a level at which they can keep their academic requirements high. Second, due to skill-biased technological change, employers have an incentive to recruit staff with a higher education degree. Third, students have an incentive to acquire a college degree due to employers’ preferences for such qualifications; the university application procedures; and through the growing social value placed on education. The authors develop a parsimonious dynamic model in which a student, a college and an employer repeatedly make decisions about requirement levels, performance and wage levels. Their model shows that if i) universities have the incentive to decrease entrance requirements, ii) employers are more likely to employ staff with a higher education degree and iii) all types of students enrol in colleges, the final grade will not necessarily induce weaker students to study more to catch up with more able students. In order to re-establish a quality-guarantee mechanism, entrance requirements should be set at a higher level.

Modeling and validation of the thermal behavior of buildings for the development of demand response methods

The representation of the thermal behaviour of the building is achieved through a relatively simple dynamic model that takes into account the effects due to the thermal mass of the building components. The model of a intra-floor apartment has been built in the Matlab-Simulink environment and considers the heat transmission through the external envelope, wall and windows, the internal thermal masses, (i.e. furniture, internal wall and floor slabs) and the sun gain due to opaque and see-through surfaces of the external envelope. The simulations results for the entire year have been compared and the model validated, with the one obtained with the dynamic building simulation software Energyplus.

Downscaled land surface temperatures obtained by a particle smoothing approach, with links to NetCDF files

This dataset contains continuous time series of land surface temperature (LST) at spatial resolution of 300m around the 12 experimental sites of the PAGE21 project (grant agreement number 282700, funded by the EC seventh Framework Program theme FP7-ENV-2011). This dataset was produced from hourly LST time series at 25km scale, retrieved from SSM/I data (André et al., 2015, doi:10.1016/j.rse.2015.01.028) and downscaled to 300m using a dynamic model and a particle smoothing approach. This methodology is based on two main assumptions. First, LST spatial variability is mostly explained by land cover and soil hydric state. Second, LST is unique for a land cover class within the low resolution pixel. Given these hypotheses, this variable can be estimated using a land cover map and a physically based land surface model constrained with observations using a data assimilation process. This methodology described in Mechri et al. (2014, doi:10.1002/2013JD020354) was applied to the ORCHIDEE land surface model (Krinner et al., 2005, doi:10.1029/2003GB002199) to estimate prior values of each land cover class provided by the ESA CCI-Land Cover product (Bontemps et al., 2013) at 300m resolution . The assimilation process (particle smoother) consists in simulating ensemble of LST time series for each land cover class and for a large number of parameter sets. For each parameter set, the resulting temperatures are aggregated considering the grid fraction of each land cover and compared to the coarse observations. Miniminizing the distance between the aggregated model solutions and the observations allow us to select the simulated LST and the corresponding parameter sets which fit the observations most closely. The retained parameter sets are then duplicated and randomly perturbed before simulating the next time window. At the end, the most likely LST of each land cover class are estimated and used to reconstruct LST maps at 300m resolution using ESA CCI-Land Cover. The resulting temperature maps on which ice pixels were masked, are provided at daily time step during the nine-year analysis period (2000-2009).

Modeling & Analysis of Small Hydroelectric Generation and Battery Energy Storage Connected as a Microgrid

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Diagnostic goal driven modelling and simulation of multiscale process systems

A systematic goal-driven top-down modelling methodology is proposed that is capable of developing a multiscale model of a process system for given diagnostic purposes. The diagnostic goal-set and the symptoms are extracted from HAZOP analysis results, where the possible actions to be performed in a fault situation are also described. The multiscale dynamic model is realized in the form of a hierarchical coloured Petri net by using a novel substitution place-transition pair. Multiscale simulation that focuses automatically on the fault areas is used to predict the effect of the proposed preventive actions. The notions and procedures are illustrated on some simple case studies including a heat exchanger network and a more complex wet granulation process.

The effect of service evaluations on behavioral intentions and quality of life

Understanding the contribution of marketing to economic and social outcomes is fundamental to broadening the focus of marketing. The authors develop a comprehensive model that integrates the impact of service quality and service satisfaction on both economic and societal outcomes. The model is validated using two random samples involving intensive health services. The results indicate that service quality and service satisfaction significantly enhance quality of life and behavioral intentions, highlighting that customer service has social as well as economic outcomes. This is an important finding given the movement toward recognizing social and environmental outcomes, such as emphasized through triple bottom-line reporting. The findings have important implications for managing service processes, for improving the quality of life of customers, and for enhancing customers' behavioral intentions toward the organization.

Essays on the Economics of Networks Under Incomplete Information

Social networks constitute a major channel for the diffusion of information and the formation of attitudes in a society. Introducing a dynamic model of social learning, the first part of this thesis studies the emergence of socially influential individuals and groups, and identifies the characteristics that make them influential. The second part uses a Bayesian network game to analyse the role of social interaction and conformism in the making of decisions whose returns or costs are ex ante uncertain.

Tracking of non-stationary time-series using resource allocating RBF networks

In this paper, we discuss some practical implications for implementing adaptable network algorithms applied to non-stationary time series problems. Using electricity load data and training with the extended Kalman filter, we demonstrate that the dynamic model-order increment procedure of the resource allocating RBF network (RAN) is highly sensitive to the parameters of the novelty criterion. We investigate the use of system noise and forgetting factors for increasing the plasticity of the Kalman filter training algorithm, and discuss the consequences for on-line model order selection. We also find that a recently-proposed alternative novelty criterion, found to be more robust in stationary environments, does not fare so well in the non-stationary case due to the need for filter adaptability during training.

A three dimensional surface measurement and reconstruction system for respiratory function analysis

Respiration is a complex activity. If the relationship between all neurological and skeletomuscular interactions was perfectly understood, an accurate dynamic model of the respiratory system could be developed and the interaction between different inputs and outputs could be investigated in a straightforward fashion. Unfortunately, this is not the case and does not appear to be viable at this time. In addition, the provision of appropriate sensor signals for such a model would be a considerable invasive task. Useful quantitative information with respect to respiratory performance can be gained from non-invasive monitoring of chest and abdomen motion. Currently available devices are not well suited in application for spirometric measurement for ambulatory monitoring. A sensor matrix measurement technique is investigated to identify suitable sensing elements with which to base an upper body surface measurement device that monitors respiration. This thesis is divided into two main areas of investigation; model based and geometrical based surface plethysmography. In the first instance, chapter 2 deals with an array of tactile sensors that are used as progression of existing and previously investigated volumetric measurement schemes based on models of respiration. Chapter 3 details a non-model based geometrical approach to surface (and hence volumetric) profile measurement. Later sections of the thesis concentrate upon the development of a functioning prototype sensor array. To broaden the application area the study has been conducted as it would be fore a generically configured sensor array. In experimental form the system performance on group estimation compares favourably with existing system on volumetric performance. In addition provides continuous transient measurement of respiratory motion within an acceptable accuracy using approximately 20 sensing elements. Because of the potential size and complexity of the system it is possible to deploy it as a fully mobile ambulatory monitoring device, which may be used outside of the laboratory. It provides a means by which to isolate coupled physiological functions and thus allows individual contributions to be analysed separately. Thus facilitating greater understanding of respiratory physiology and diagnostic capabilities. The outcome of the study is the basis for a three-dimensional surface contour sensing system that is suitable for respiratory function monitoring and has the prospect with future development to be incorporated into a garment based clinical tool.

Mathematical modelling and control of agitated extraction columns

Liquid-liquid extraction has long been known as a unit operation that plays an important role in industry. This process is well known for its complexity and sensitivity to operation conditions. This thesis presents an attempt to explore the dynamics and control of this process using a systematic approach and state of the art control system design techniques. The process was studied first experimentally under carefully selected. operation conditions, which resembles the ranges employed practically under stable and efficient conditions. Data were collected at steady state conditions using adequate sampling techniques for the dispersed and continuous phases as well as during the transients of the column with the aid of a computer-based online data logging system and online concentration analysis. A stagewise single stage backflow model was improved to mimic the dynamic operation of the column. The developed model accounts for the variation in hydrodynamics, mass transfer, and physical properties throughout the length of the column. End effects were treated by addition of stages at the column entrances. Two parameters were incorporated in the model namely; mass transfer weight factor to correct for the assumption of no mass transfer in the. settling zones at each stage and the backmixing coefficients to handle the axial dispersion phenomena encountered in the course of column operation. The parameters were estimated by minimizing the differences between the experimental and the model predicted concentration profiles at steady state conditions using non-linear optimisation technique. The estimated values were then correlated as functions of operating parameters and were incorporated in·the model equations. The model equations comprise a stiff differential~algebraic system. This system was solved using the GEAR ODE solver. The calculated concentration profiles were compared to those experimentally measured. A very good agreement of the two profiles was achieved within a percent relative error of ±2.S%. The developed rigorous dynamic model of the extraction column was used to derive linear time-invariant reduced-order models that relate the input variables (agitator speed, solvent feed flowrate and concentration, feed concentration and flowrate) to the output variables (raffinate concentration and extract concentration) using the asymptotic method of system identification. The reduced-order models were shown to be accurate in capturing the dynamic behaviour of the process with a maximum modelling prediction error of I %. The simplicity and accuracy of the derived reduced-order models allow for control system design and analysis of such complicated processes. The extraction column is a typical multivariable process with agitator speed and solvent feed flowrate considered as manipulative variables; raffinate concentration and extract concentration as controlled variables and the feeds concentration and feed flowrate as disturbance variables. The control system design of the extraction process was tackled as multi-loop decentralised SISO (Single Input Single Output) as well as centralised MIMO (Multi-Input Multi-Output) system using both conventional and model-based control techniques such as IMC (Internal Model Control) and MPC (Model Predictive Control). Control performance of each control scheme was. studied in terms of stability, speed of response, sensitivity to modelling errors (robustness), setpoint tracking capabilities and load rejection. For decentralised control, multiple loops were assigned to pair.each manipulated variable with each controlled variable according to the interaction analysis and other pairing criteria such as relative gain array (RGA), singular value analysis (SVD). Loops namely Rotor speed-Raffinate concentration and Solvent flowrate Extract concentration showed weak interaction. Multivariable MPC has shown more effective performance compared to other conventional techniques since it accounts for loops interaction, time delays, and input-output variables constraints.

Strategic innovation networks

This thesis draws on two key areas of the innovation literature, the strategic management of technology (SMOT) and innovation networks. The aim is to integrate these two areas of the management of innovation literature to develop a framework which I describe as the Strategic Innovation Network (SIN). The key proposition that the revised framework (SIN) aims to address is based on the work of Chandler (1962). Chandler's (1962) conclusion that 'structure follows strategy' is examined in relation to the interaction between corporate/technology strategy and network structure. The SIN is intended to address weaknesses in both the SMOT and network literature. The research data is based on five detailed longitudinal case studies. The organisations are defined as mid-corporate firms operating in traditional manufacturing sectors. Each organisation was chosen on the basis that it was aiming to develop its innovative capacity through product or process innovation projects. The research was carried out over an 18 month period with interviews being held regularly to develop the longitudinal aspect of the study analysis. The data for each individual case study is examined using the SIN framework. The longitudinal approach addresses the objective to provide a dynamic model of the innovation processes by mapping the changes in network structure during the course of individual projects. The network structural changes are examined in relation to each organisation's strategy and five key dynamic network stages are identified in relation to the innovation process. These network stages show the influence strategy has on the structures adopted by the five case studies.

Management information:design of a system for change identification

This thesis deals with the problem of Information Systems design for Corporate Management. It shows that the results of applying current approaches to Management Information Systems and Corporate Modelling fully justify a fresh look to the problem. The thesis develops an approach to design based on Cybernetic principles and theories. It looks at Management as an informational process and discusses the relevance of regulation theory to its practice. The work proceeds around the concept of change and its effects on the organization's stability and survival. The idea of looking at organizations as viable systems is discussed and a design to enhance survival capacity is developed. It takes Ashby's theory of adaptation and developments on ultra-stability as a theoretical framework and considering conditions for learning and foresight deduces that a design should include three basic components: A dynamic model of the organization- environment relationships; a method to spot significant changes in the value of the essential variables and in a certain set of parameters; and a Controller able to conceive and change the other two elements and to make choices among alternative policies. Further considerations of the conditions for rapid adaptation in organisms composed of many parts, and the law of Requisite Variety determine that successful adaptive behaviour requires certain functional organization. Beer's model of viable organizations is put in relation to Ashby's theory of adaptation and regulation. The use of the Ultra-stable system as abstract unit of analysis permits developing a rigorous taxonomy of change; it starts distinguishing between change with in behaviour and change of behaviour to complete the classification with organizational change. It relates these changes to the logical categories of learning connecting the topic of Information System design with that of organizational learning.

Thin film bearings with phase change of lubricant

The possible evaporation of lubricant in fluid film bearings has been investigated theoretically and by experiment using a radial flow hydrostatic bearing supplied with liquid refrigerant R114. Good correlation between measured and theoretical values was obtained using a bespoke computational fluid dynamic model in which the flow was assumed to be laminar and adiabatic. The effects of viscous dissipation and vapour generation within the fluid film are fully accounted for by applying a fourth order Runge-Kutta routine to satisfy the radial and filmwise transverse constraints of momentum, energy and mass conservation. The results indicate that the radial velocity profile remains parabolic while the flow remains in the liquid phase and that the radial rate of enthalpy generation is then constant across the film at a given radius. The results also show that evaporation will commence at a radial location determined by geometry and flow conditions and in fluid layers adjacent to the solid boundaries. Evaporation is shown to progress in the radial direction and the load carrying capacity of such a bearing is reduced significantly. Expressions for the viscosity of the liquid/vapour mixture found in the literature survey have not been tested against experimental data. A new formulation is proposed in which the suitable choice of a characteristic constant yields close representation to any of these expressions. Operating constraints imposed by the design of the experimental apparatus limited the extent of the surface over which evaporation could be obtained, and prevented clear identification of the most suitable relationship for the viscosity of the liquid/vapour mixture. The theoretical model was extended to examine the development of two phase flow in a rotating shaft face seal of uniform thickness. Previous theoretical analyses have been based on the assumption that the radial velocity profile of the flow is always parabolic, and that the tangential component of velocity varies linearly from the value at the rotating surface, to zero at the stationary surface. The computational fluid dynamic analysis shows that viscous shear and dissipation in the fluid adjacent to the rotating surface leads to developing evaporation with a consequent reduction in tangential shear forces. The tangential velocity profile is predicted to decay rapidly through the film, exhibiting a profile entirely different to that assumed by previous investigators. Progressive evaporation takes place close to the moving wall and does not occur completely at a single radial location, as has been claimed in earlier work.