Forecasting human entrances at a commercial store using facial recognition data

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia e Gestão de Sistemas de Informação

Experimental validation of a proposed single-phase five-level active rectifier operating with model predictive current control

This paper presents a model predictive current control applied to a proposed single-phase five-level active rectifier (FLAR). This current control strategy uses the discrete-time nature of the active rectifier to define its state in each sampling interval. Although the switching frequency is not constant, this current control strategy allows to follow the reference with low total harmonic distortion (THDF). The implementation of the active rectifier that was used to obtain the experimental results is described in detail along the paper, presenting the circuit topology, the principle of operation, the power theory, and the current control strategy. The experimental results confirm the robustness and good performance (with low current THDF and controlled output voltage) of the proposed single-phase FLAR operating with model predictive current control.

Credit markets and the propagation of monetary policy shocks

This paper analyzes the propagation of monetary policy shocks through the creation of credit in an economy. Models of the monetary transmission mechanism typically feature responses which last for a few quarters contrary to what the empirical evidence suggests. To propagate the impact of monetary shocks over time, these models introduce adjustment costs by which agents find it optimal to change their decisions slowly. This paper presents another explanation that does not rely on any sort of adjustment costs or stickiness. In our economy, agents own assets and make occupational choices. Banks intermediate between agents demanding and supplying assets. Our interpretation is based on the way banks create credit and how the monetary authority affects the process of financial intermediation through its monetary policy. As the central bank lowers the interest rate by buying government bonds in exchange for reserves, high productive entrepreneurs are able to borrow more resources from low productivity agents. We show that this movement of capital among agents sets in motion a response of the economy that resembles an expansionary phase of the cycle.

The Difference, System and ‘Double-D’ GMM Panel Estimators in the Presence of Structural Breaks

The effects of structural breaks in dynamic panels are more complicated than in time series models as the bias can be either negative or positive. This paper focuses on the effects of mean shifts in otherwise stationary processes within an instrumental variable panel estimation framework. We show the sources of the bias and a Monte Carlo analysis calibrated on United States bank lending data demonstrates the size of the bias for a range of auto-regressive parameters. We also propose additional moment conditions that can be used to reduce the biases caused by shifts in the mean of the data.

Large Bayesian VARMAs

Vector Autoregressive Moving Average (VARMA) models have many theoretical properties which should make them popular among empirical macroeconomists. However, they are rarely used in practice due to over-parameterization concerns, difficulties in ensuring identification and computational challenges. With the growing interest in multivariate time series models of high dimension, these problems with VARMAs become even more acute, accounting for the dominance of VARs in this field. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian approach for inference in VARMAs which surmounts these problems. It jointly ensures identification and parsimony in the context of an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. We use this approach in a macroeconomic application involving up to twelve dependent variables. We find our algorithm to work successfully and provide insights beyond those provided by VARs.

Virologic and immunologic responses in treatment-naive patients to ritonavir-boosted atazanavir or efavirenz with a common backbone.

Background: Atazanavir boosted with ritonavir (ATV/r) and efavirenz (EFV) are both recommended as first-line therapies for HIV-infected patients. We compared the 2 therapies for virologic efficacy and immune recovery. Methods: We included all treatment-naïve patients in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study starting therapy after May 2003 with either ATV/r or EFV and a backbone of tenofovir and either emtricitabine or lamivudine. We used Cox models to assess time to virologic failure and repeated measures models to assess the change in CD4 cell counts over time. All models were fit as marginal structural models using both point of treatment and censoring weights. Intent-to-treat and various as-treated analyses were carried out: In the latter, patients were censored at their last recorded measurement if they changed therapy or if they were no longer adherent to therapy. Results: Patients starting EFV (n = 1,097) and ATV/r (n = 384) were followed for a median of 35 and 37 months, respectively. During follow-up, 51% patients on EFV and 33% patients on ATV/r remained adherent and made no change to their first-line therapy. Although intent-to-treat analyses suggest virologic failure was more likely with ATV/r, there was no evidence for this disadvantage in patients who adhered to first-line therapy. Patients starting ATV/r had a greater increase in CD4 cell count during the first year of therapy, but this advantage disappeared after one year. Conclusions: In this observational study, there was no good evidence of any intrinsic advantage for one therapy over the other, consistent with earlier clinical trials. Differences between therapies may arise in a clinical setting because of differences in adherence to therapy.

Effects of Interviewer Experience on Components of Nonresponse in the European Social Survey

We analyze interviewer related nonresponse differences in face-to-face surveys distinguishing three types of interviewers: those who have previous experience with the same high standard cross-sectional survey ("experienced"), those who were chosen by the survey agency to complete refusal conversions ("seniors"), and usual interviewers. The nonresponse components are obtaining household contact, target person contact, and target person cooperation. In addition we examine if interviewer homogeneity with respect to these components is different across the three interviewer groups. Data come from the European Social Survey (ESS) contact forms from four countries which participated during the three rounds 2002/04/06 and used the same survey agency that in turn used to some extent the same interviewers. To analyze interviewer effects, we use discrete two-level models. We find some evidence of better performance by both senior and experienced interviewers and indications of greater homogeneity for nonresponse components, especially for those that contain room for improvement. Surprisingly, the senior interviewers do not outperform those experienced. We conclude that survey agencies should make more efforts to decrease the comparatively high interviewer turnover.

When mothers work and fathers care. Joint household fertility decisions in Denmark and Spain

We analyze second birth decisions within the theoretical framework of joint household decision making, comparing two countires that represent the international extremes in terms of women's career behaviour, Denmark and Spain. Using all 8 ECHP panels we apply discrete time estimations of the likelihood of a second birth and show that in Spain, fertility behaviour continues to conform to the classic "Becker model" while in Denmark we identify a radically new behavioral pattern according to which career-women's fertility is conditional of their partners' contribution to care for the children.

Randomized observation periods for the compound Poisson risk model: Dividends

In the framework of the classical compound Poisson process in collective risk theory, we study a modification of the horizontal dividend barrier strategy by introducing random observation times at which dividends can be paid and ruin can be observed. This model contains both the continuous-time and the discrete-time risk model as a limit and represents a certain type of bridge between them which still enables the explicit calculation of moments of total discounted dividend payments until ruin. Numerical illustrations for several sets of parameters are given and the effect of random observation times on the performance of the dividend strategy is studied.

Discursos de gènere, nacionalisme i respostes col•lectives de les dones a Catalunya i Irlanda

El projecte realitzat se situa en el marc de la història contemporània, i s’ha centrat en primer lloc, en l’anàlisi, des d’una perspectiva comparativa, del desenvolupament dels discursos de gènere a Catalunya durant la Dictadura Franquista i a la Irlanda postcolonial. Mitjançant l’anàlisi del discurs, s’han estudiat els models de feminitat imposats pel Franquisme i les seves bases ideològiques com són el valors catòlics i l’antindividualisme. En el cas irlandès, s’ha analitzat com, a través de determinades institucions gestionades per l’Església Catòlica, es controlaven aquelles dones que es desviaven del model de gènere que propugnava l’Estat Irlandès, molt similar al proposat pel Franquisme i també basat en els catolicisme. De la mateix manera, s’ha estudiat com el feminisme Català i irlandès dels anys 1970 i 1980 van contrarestar aquests models de gènere imposats, a través de l’anàlisi d’un conjunt d’expressions culturals produïdes per ambdós moviments feministes. La perspectiva comparativa del projecte ha permès: El coneixement dels mecanismes culturals de repressió de les dones així com la seva institucionalització. Revelant els paral•lelismes pel que fa a les polítiques de gènere entre els dos casos estudiats malgrat diferències significatives entre els dos contextos (Catalunya es troba sota una dictadura, Irlanda és un Estat democràtic). La importància de l’agència de les dones i les seves diverses estratègies de resistència, especialment a través d’expressions culturals més efímeres o considerades frívoles que, malgrat el poc reconeixement que han obtingut, són molt eficaces en la deconstrucció de discursos de gènere repressius envers les dones. Ha posat de manifest, també, la importància de l’experiència i les pràctiques personals i íntimes com a pràctiques de resistència. Així mateix, ha visibilitzat les dinàmiques pròpies de moviments feministes.

Adoption of financial technologies: Implications for money demand and monetary policy

In this paper we argue that inventory models are probably not usefulmodels of household money demand because the majority of households does nothold any interest bearing assets. The relevant decision for most people is notthe fraction of assets to be held in interest bearing form, but whether to holdany of such assets at all. The implications of this realization are interesting and important. We find that(a) the elasticity of money demand is very small when the interest rate is small,(b) the probability that a household holds any amount of interest bearing assetsis positively related to the level of financial assets, and (c) the cost ofadopting financial technologies is positively related to age and negatively relatedto the level of education. Unlike the traditional methods of money demand estimation, our methodology allowsfor the estimation of the interest--elasticity at low values of the nominalinterest rate. The finding that the elasticity is very small for interest ratesbelow 5 percent suggests that the welfare costs of inflation are small. At interest rates of 6 percent, the elasticity is close to 0.5. We find thatroughly one half of this elasticity can be attributed to the Baumol--Tobin orintensive margin and half of it can be attributed to the new adopters or extensivemargin. The intensive margin is less important at lower interest rates and moreimportant at higher interest rates.

Insurance with frequent trading

This paper looks at the dynamic management of risk in an economy with discrete time consumption and endowments and continuous trading. I study how agents in such an economy deal with all the risk in the economy and attain their Pareto optimal allocations by trading in a few natural securities: private insurance contracts and a common set of derivatives on the aggregate endowment. The parsimonious nature ofthe implied securities needed for Pareto optimality suggests that insuch contexts complete markets is a very reasonable assumption.

Una extensión de la regresión propuesta por Geweke y Porter-Hudak para la estimación del orden de diferenciación en modelos ARFIMA

Recientemente, ha aumentado mucho el interés por la aplicación de los modelos de memoria larga a variables económicas, sobre todo los modelos ARFIMA. Sin duda , el método más usado para la estimación de estos modelos en el ámbito del análisis económico es el propuesto por Geweke y Portero-Hudak (GPH) aun cuando en trabajos recientes se ha demostrado que, en ciertos casos, este estimador presenta un sesgo muy importante. De ahí que, se propone una extensión de este estimador a partir del modelo exponencial propuesto por Bloomfield, y que permite corregir este sesgo.A continuación, se analiza y compara el comportamiento de ambos estimadores en muestras no muy grandes y se comprueba como el estimador propuesto presenta un error cuadrático medio menor que el estimador GPH

Una extensión de la regresión propuesta por Geweke y Porter-Hudak para la estimación del orden de diferenciación en modelos ARFIMA

Recientemente, ha aumentado mucho el interés por la aplicación de los modelos de memoria larga a variables económicas, sobre todo los modelos ARFIMA. Sin duda , el método más usado para la estimación de estos modelos en el ámbito del análisis económico es el propuesto por Geweke y Portero-Hudak (GPH) aun cuando en trabajos recientes se ha demostrado que, en ciertos casos, este estimador presenta un sesgo muy importante. De ahí que, se propone una extensión de este estimador a partir del modelo exponencial propuesto por Bloomfield, y que permite corregir este sesgo.A continuación, se analiza y compara el comportamiento de ambos estimadores en muestras no muy grandes y se comprueba como el estimador propuesto presenta un error cuadrático medio menor que el estimador GPH

Can we identify Walrasian allocations?

[eng] We consider a discrete time, pure exchange infinite horizon economy with two or more consumers and at least one concumption good per period. Within the framework of decentralized mechanisms, we show that for a given consumption trade at any period of time, say at time one, the consumers will need, in general, an infinite dimensional (informational) space to identigy such a trade as an intemporal Walrasian one. However, we show and characterize a set of enviroments where the Walrasian trades at each period of time can be achieved as the equilibrium trades of a sequence of decentralized competitive mechanisms, using only both current prices and quantities to coordinate decisions.