Global and regional burden of disease and risk factors, 2001: systematic analysis of population health data

Background Our aim was to calculate the global burden of disease and risk factors for 2001, to examine regional trends from 1990 to 2001, and to provide a starting point for the analysis of the Disease Control Priorities Project (DCPP). Methods We calculated mortality, incidence, prevalence, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) for 136 diseases and injuries, for seven income/geographic country groups. To assess trends, we re-estimated all-cause mortality for 1990 with the same methods as for 2001. We estimated mortality and disease burden attributable to 19 risk factors. Findings About 56 million people died in 2001. Of these, 10.6 million were children, 99% of whom lived in low-and-middle-income countries. More than half of child deaths in 2001 were attributable to acute respiratory infections, measles, diarrhoea, malaria, and HIV/AIDS. The ten leading diseases for global disease burden were perinatal conditions, lower respiratory infections, ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, HIV/AIDS, diarrhoeal diseases, unipolar major depression, malaria, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and tuberculosis. There was a 20% reduction in global disease burden per head due to communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional conditions between 1990 and 2001. Almost half the disease burden in low-and-middle-income countries is now from non-communicable diseases (disease burden per head in Sub-Saharan Africa and the low-and-middle-income countries of Europe and Central Asia increased between 1990 and 2001). Undernutrition remains the leading risk factor for health loss. An estimated 45% of global mortality and 36% of global disease burden are attributable to the joint hazardous effects of the 19 risk factors studied. Uncertainty in all-cause mortality estimates ranged from around 1% in high-income countries to 15-20% in Sub-Saharan Africa. Uncertainty was larger for mortality from specific diseases, and for incidence and prevalence of non-fatal outcomes. Interpretation Despite uncertainties about mortality and burden of disease estimates, our findings suggest that substantial gains in health have been achieved in most populations, countered by the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Sub-Saharan Africa and setbacks in adult mortality in countries of the former Soviet Union. our results on major disease, injury, and risk factor causes of loss of health, together with information on the cost-effectiveness of interventions, can assist in accelerating progress towards better health and reducing the persistent differentials in health between poor and rich countries.

On labour market dualism in the Lewis model: A comment

In a special issue of this journal commemorating the 50th anniversary of W. Arthur Lewis's (The Manchester School, Vol. 28 (1954), No. 2, pp. 139-191) seminal paper, the Lewis model is treated as a model of labour market dualism (Fields, The Manchester School, Vol. 72 (2004), No. 6, pp. 724-735). This interpretation is flawed for a number of reasons. First, it overemphasizes the role ascribed by Lewis to intersectoral earnings differentials in his original model. Second, it fails to acknowledge that a major shortcoming of the model was its inability to account for the widening intersectoral earnings differential observed across a wide range of developing economies. For Lewis himself this was one of the 'major theoretical puzzles of the period' (1979, p. 150). Third, it ignores Lewis's subsequent revision of the model (Lewis, The Manchester School, Vol. 47 (1979), No. 3, pp. 211-229) that, ironically, incorporates a dual labour market to resolve this puzzle. However, for Lewis the critical issue was dualism within the modern sector, not, as Fields understands it, labour market dualism between the modern and traditional sectors. Fields's appreciation of the contribution of the Lewis model to understanding the process of wage determination in developing economies is therefore misplaced.

Pathogenic variation of Fusarium isolates associated with head blight of wheat in Australia

This paper examines the level of pathogenic diversity in Australian Fusarium pseudograminearum and Fusarium graminearum isolates for head blight from the assessment of 51 wheat germplasm lines, barley, triticale, rye, maize and sorghum plants. A set of nine putative wheat differentials were selected and assessed with 10 F. graminearum and 12 F. pseudograminearum isolates. Isolates of both species were pathogenic on all the wheat germplasm lines, barley triticale and rye. The isolates differed largely in a quantitative way with only small differential effects and were statistically demarcated into three pathogenicity groups: low, intermediate and high. Such distribution patterns suggest that wheat germplasm lines employ different resistance mechanisms to each group of isolates and the three pathogenicity groups may have different mechanisms controlling pathogenicity. The aggressiveness of F. graminearum and F. pseudograminearum isolates on the wheat germplasm lines were marginally correlated (r = 0.40). Durum wheats were ranked as the most susceptible while Sumai 3, Ituo Komugi, Sotome A, Sotome and Nobeokabouzu komugi were consistently grouped as resistant by both species. These findings reiterate the need to consider pathogen variability in the screening, selection and improvement of resistance to head blight in wheat.

Big 4 audit fee premiums for national and office-level industry leadership in the United Kingdom

The pricing of Big 4 industry leadership Is examined for a sample of U.K. publicly-listed companies, and adds to the evidence from the Australian and U.S. audit markets that city-specific industry leadership commands a fee premium. There is a significant fee premium for city-specific industry leaders relative to other Big 4 auditors, but no evidence that either the top-ranked or second-ranked firm nationally commands a fee premium relative to other Big 4 auditors, after controlling for city-level industry leadership. We also test for Big 4 fee premiums relative to non-Big 4 auditors and the U.K. data suggest a three-level hierarchy based on audit fee differentials: (1) Big 4 city-specific industry leaders have the largest fees; (2) other Big 4 auditors (noncity leaders) and second-tier national firms have comparable fees that are lower than Big 4 city leaders but larger than third-tier firms; and (3) third-tier accounting firms have the lowest fees.

Productivity and labour demand effects of inward and outward foreign direct investment on UK industry

We relate the technological and factor price determinants of inward and outward foreign direct investment (FDI) to its potential productivity and labour market effects on both host and home economies. This allows us to distinguish clearly between technology-sourcing and technologyexploiting FDI, and to identify FDI that is linked to labour cost differentials. We then empirically examine the effects of different types of FDI into and out of the UK on domestic (i.e. UK) productivity and on the demand for skilled and unskilled labour at the industry level.

FDI and the labour market: a review of the evidence and policy implications

This paper presents a series of results concerning the labour-market impact of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) in the UK. The paper demonstrates that one of the crucial impacts of FDI is to increase wage inequality and the use of relatively more skilled labour in the domestic firms. This result is found to be a combination of two effects. First, the entry by a multinational enterprise (MNE) increases the demand for skilled workers in an industry or region, thus increasing wage inequality. Second, technology spillovers occur from foreign to domestic firms. As a result of these spillovers, relative demand for skilled workers increases in the domestic firms, further contributing to aggregate wage inequality and skill upgrading. The paper also considers how FDI impacts upon skill shares by productivity differentials between foreign and domestic firms. Finally, the policy implications of this are discussed, from the perspective of regional development, and the likely effectiveness of attracting FDI to reduce structural unemployment.

The UK productivity gap in the service sector: do management practices matter?

Purpose – This paper aims to contribute to the debate on the drivers of the productivity gap that exists between the UK and its major international competitors. Design/methodology/approach – From the macro perspective the paper explores the quantitative evidence on the productivity differentials and how they are measured. From the micro perspective, the article explores the quantitative evidence on the role of management practices claimed to be a key determinant in promoting firm competitiveness and in bridging the UK gap. Findings – This study suggests that management practices are an ambiguous driver of firm productivity and higher firm performance. On the methodological side, qualitative and subjective measures of either management practices or firm performance are often used. This makes the results not comparable across studies, across firms or even within firms over time. Productivity and profitability are often and erroneously interchangeably used while productivity is only one element of firm performance. On the other hand, management practices are multi-dimensional constructs that generally do not demonstrate a straightforward relationship with productivity variables. To assume that they are the only driver of higher productivity may be misleading. Moreover, there is evidence of an inverse causal relationship between management practices and firm performance. This calls into question most empirical results of the extant literature based on the unidirectional assumption of direct causality between management practices and firm performance. Research limitations/implications – These and other issues suggest that more research is needed to deepen the understanding of the UK productivity gap and more quantitative evidence should be provided on the way in which management practices contribute to the UK competitiveness. Their impact is not easily measurable due to their complexity and their complementary nature and this is a fertile ground for further research. Originality/value – This paper brings together the evidence on the UK productivity gap and its main drivers, provided by the economics, management and performance measurement literature. This issue scores very highly in the agenda of policy makers and academics and has important implications for practitioners interested in evaluating the impact of managerial best practices.

Does the motivation for foreign direct investment affect productivity spillovers to the domestic sector?

There is increasing empirical and theoretical evidence that foreign direct investment (FDI) may be motivated not by the desire to exploit some competitive advantage possessed by multinationals, but to access the technology of host economy firms. Using a panel of FDI flows across OECD countries and manufacturing sectors between 1984 and 1995, we test whether these contrasting motivations influence the effects that FDI has on domestic total factor productivity. The distinction between technology-exploiting FDI (TEFDI) and technology-sourcing FDI (TSFDI) is made using R&D intensity differentials between host and source sectors. The hypothesis that the motivation for FDI has an effect on total factor productivity spillovers is supported: TEFDI has a net positive effect, while TSFDI has a net negative effect. These net effects are explained in terms of the offsetting influences of productivity spillovers and market stealing effects induced by incoming multinationals.

Intra-industry foreign direct investment, uneven development and globalization:the legacy of Stephen Hymer

This paper revisits the issue of intra-industry foreign direct investment (FDI). This issue was considered in Stephen Hymer's early work, but was not subsequently developed, and was largely ignored in the literature for some time. Using the example of the UK, this paper traces the patterns of intra-industry FDI, both across countries and industries, for both the manufacturing and service sectors. Despite the undoubted increase in the integration of goods and factor markets since the time of Hymer's writing, the analysis presented here shows that the pattern has changed little in the last 40 years. The paper then goes on to discuss the motives for intra-industry FDI, relating it to technology flows and factor cost differentials. Finally, we present some analysis relating intra-industry FDI to uneven development, both between developed and developing countries, and between regions of a developed country. It is clear that intra-industry FDI is still very much a developed country phenomenon, as Hymer suggested, with both developing countries and poorer regions of developed countries unlikely to reap any of the benefits. In this context, one-way and two-way FDI must be seen as different phenomena within the debate on globalisation. © The Author 2005. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Cambridge Political Economy Society. All rights reserved.

Productivity and labour demand effects of inward and outward FDI on UK industry

We relate the technological and factor price determinants of inward and outward FDI to its potential productivity and labour market effects on both host and home economies. This allows us to distinguish clearly between technology sourcing and technology exploiting FDI, and to identify FDI which is linked to labour cost differentials. We then empirically examine the effects of different types of FDI into and out of the United Kingdom on domestic (i.e. UK) productivity and on the demand for skilled and unskilled labour at the industry level. Inward investment into the UK comes overwhelmingly from sectors and countries which have a technological advantage over the corresponding UK sector. Outward FDI shows a quite different pattern, dominated by investment into foreign sectors which have lower unit labour costs than the UK. We find that different types of FDI have markedly different productivity and labour demand effects, which may in part explain the lack of consensus in the empirical literature on the effects of FDI. Our results also highlight the difficulty for policy makers of simultaneously improving employment and domestic productivity through FDI.

Technology flows, outsourcing and productivity:an analysis of UK trade and FDI

By engaging in trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) with foreign partners, a country can access the R&D and related knowledge stocks of other countries (by accident or by design) and so benefit from those stocks of knowledge at a cost lower than that which would be incurred by developing the knowledge internally. This should lead to beneficial ‘spillover’ effects on the productivity of domestic firms. However, the literature on technology spillovers from trade and FDI is ambiguous in its findings. This may in part be because of the assumption in much of the work that trade and FDI flows are homogeneous in their determinants and thus in their effects. We develop a taxonomy of trade and FDI determinants based on R&D intensity and unit labour cost differentials, and test for the presence of spillovers from inward investment and imports on an extensive sample of UK manufacturing plants. We find that both trade and FDI have measurable spillover effects, but the size of these effects varies depending on the technological and labour cost differentials between the UK and its trading partners. There is therefore an identifiable link between the determinants and effects of trade and FDI which the previous literature has not explored. We also find that absorptive capacity matters for spillovers from FDI, but not from trade. Overall, these findings suggest that the productivity effects of FDI are largely restricted to plants with high absorptive capacity, while the productivity effects of imports occur largely among higher-technology plants regardless of their absorptive capacity.

Evaluating small business performance : a matched pair analysis of African Caribbean owned businesses in the UK

African Caribbean Owned Businesses (ACOBs) have been postulated as having performance-related problems especially when compared with other ethnic minority groups in Britain. This research investigates if ACOBs may be performing less than similar firms in the population and why this maybe so. Therefore the aspiration behind this study is one of ratifying the existence of performance differentials between ACOBs and White Asian Owned Businesses (WAOBs), by using a triangulation of methods and matched pair analysis. Every ACOB was matched along firm specific characteristics of age, size, legal form and industry (sector), with similar WAOBs. Findings show support for the hypothesis that ACOBs are more likely to perform less than the WAOBs; WAOBs out-performed ACOBs in the objective and subjective assessments. Though we found some differentials between both groups in the entrepreneur’s characteristics and various emphases in strategic orientation in overall business strategy. The most likely drivers of performance differentials were found in firm activities and operations. ACOBs tended to have brands that were not as popular in the mainstream with most of their manufactured goods being seen as ‘exotic’ while those by WAOBs were perceived as ‘traditional’. Moreover, ACOBs had a higher proportion of clients constituting of individuals than business organisations while the WAOBs had a higher proportion consisting of business organisations.

How SME owners’ characteristics influences external advice and access to finance

This paper aims to investigate the linkage between the use of external advice and access to finance for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the UK, with particular consideration of differences in personal characteristics: gender, ethnicity and education. The approach adopted for the research is a telephone survey conducted by the Barclays small business research team in late 2005 on behalf of the authors. These data are quantitative in nature and involve a large sample of 400 SMEs with specific questions analysed by gender, ethnicity and education level. The approach adopted is robust and empirically sound and is a long established research methodology. We find that there appears to be a correlation between the provision of external advice and the ability to raise bank finance. Furthermore, there are clear gender, ethnic and educational differentials in the use of particular sources of advice, for example: Gender • men and women are equally likely to use accountants as sources of advice. • men are more likely to use family and friends and solicitors. • women, however, are around twice as likely to access external advice from Business Link and Enterprise Agencies. Ethnicity • family and friends is predominant amongst Asians or black respondents and the other ethnic group, which is also slightly true of accountants and solicitors. • ethnic minority respondents were considerably less likely to use Business Link/ Enterprise Agencies. Education • graduates are most likely to use solicitors and accountants, whilst they are very low users of advice from family and friends and Business Links/Enterprise Agencies. • O level and A level educated respondents predominate in family and friends and Business Link/ Enterprise Agencies.

Lateral instability of slender reinforced concrete columns in a fire environment

The research concerns the development and application of an analytical computer program, SAFE-ROC, that models material behaviour and structural behaviour of a slender reinforced concrete column that is part of an overall structure and is subjected to elevated temperatures as a result of exposure to fire. The analysis approach used in SAFE-RCC is non-linear. Computer calculations are used that take account of restraint and continuity, and the interaction of the column with the surrounding structure during the fire. Within a given time step an iterative approach is used to find a deformed shape for the column which results in equilibrium between the forces associated with the external loads and internal stresses and degradation. Non-linear geometric effects are taken into account by updating the geometry of the structure during deformation. The structural response program SAFE-ROC includes a total strain model which takes account of the compatibility of strain due to temperature and loading. The total strain model represents a constitutive law that governs the material behaviour for concrete and steel. The material behaviour models employed for concrete and steel take account of the dimensional changes caused by the temperature differentials and changes in the material mechanical properties with changes in temperature. Non-linear stress-strain laws are used that take account of loading to a strain greater than that corresponding to the peak stress of the concrete stress-strain relation, and model the inelastic deformation associated with unloading of the steel stress-strain relation. The cross section temperatures caused by the fire environment are obtained by a preceding non-linear thermal analysis, a computer program FIRES-T.