An application of two techniques for the analysis of short, multivariate non-stationary time-series of Mauritanian trawl survey data

Min/max autocorrelation factor analysis (MAFA) and dynamic factor analysis (DFA) are complementary techniques for analysing short (> 15-25 y), non-stationary, multivariate data sets. We illustrate the two techniques using catch rate (cpue) time-series (1982-2001) for 17 species caught during trawl surveys off Mauritania, with the NAO index, an upwelling index, sea surface temperature, and an index of fishing effort as explanatory variables. Both techniques gave coherent results, the most important common trend being a decrease in cpue during the latter half of the time-series, and the next important being an increase during the first half. A DFA model with SST and UPW as explanatory variables and two common trends gave good fits to most of the cpue time-series. (c) 2004 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

La estrategia en la perdurabilidad empresarial. Un estudio de la segunda aerolínea más antigua del mundo: Avianca

Una de las principales dificultades que se presenta en Colombia, para el desarrollo económico y social, está dada por la falta de sostenibilidad de la gran mayoría de empresas en el país. Por este motivo, este trabajo se ha concentrado en investigar este problema y brindar herramientas que ayuden a fomentar una cultura de perdurabilidad. Con este fin, se ha realizado un estudio acerca de Avianca, una empresa referente en el país en lo que respecta a la perdurabilidad, posicionamiento y estrategia, pues, a lo largo de sus casi cien años de historia, ha superado retos y circunstancias, que, de haber actuado de otra manera, habrían podido llevarla a su fin.

GA-ANN Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting

This paper presents a methodology for short-term load forecasting based on genetic algorithm feature selection and artificial neural network modeling. A feed forward artificial neural network is used to model the 24-h ahead load based on past consumption, weather and stock index data. A genetic algorithm is used in order to find the best subset of variables for modeling. Three data sets of different geographical locations, encompassing areas of different dimensions with distinct load profiles are used in order to evaluate the methodology. The developed approach was found to generate models achieving a minimum mean average percentage error under 2 %. The feature selection algorithm was able to significantly reduce the number of used features and increase the accuracy of the models.

Measuring persistence in inflation: evidence for Angola

The purpose of this paper is to examine the degree of persistence in five inflation indicators for Angola, and to identify the implications for decision-making. Understanding inflation persistence in Angola is crucial because the National Bank of Angola is preparing to change its monetary policy focus to a more inflation-targeting regime. Our results suggest that when structural breaks are accounted for, all five inflation indicators are stationary, so that a shock will give temporary effects. Secondly, our findings suggest that persistence is not too high. Moreover, the degree of persistence is similar among the five inflation indicators and throughout the sample period. Finally, our results also show that extracting the most volatile components of the headline inflation indicator does not generate a new inflation indicator that is less volatile and more persistent than the original. These results have important implications for the design, implementation and effectiveness of monetary policy in Angola, especially when following an inflation-targeting regime. First, a not too high degree of persistence means monetary policy aiming for price stability must be implemented with a permanent policy stance. Secondly, a low degree of persistence also means that inflation can be stabilized in a short period of time following a shock. Lastly, the results are also relevant for prediction and modeling purposes.

Neonatal outcomes following maternal SARS-CoV-2 infection in pregnancy - longitudinal follow-up and assessment of transplacental antibody transfer

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in pregnancy has been associated with multiple adverse pregnancy outcomes, including the risk of in utero mother-to-child transmission. Short- and long-term outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 exposed neonates and the extent to which maternal SARS-CoV-2 antibodies are transferred to neonates are still unclear. METHODS: Prospective observational study enrolling neonates born to mothers with SARS-CoV-2 infection in pregnancy, between April 2020-April 2021. Neonates were evaluated at birth and enrolled in a 12-month follow-up. SARS-CoV-2 IgG transplacental transfer ratio was assessed in mother-neonate dyads at birth. Maternal derived IgG were followed in infants until negativizing. RESULTS: Of 2745 neonates, 106 (3.9%) were delivered by mothers with SARS-CoV-2 infection in pregnancy. Seventy-six of 106 (71.7%) mothers were symptomatic. Median gestational age and mean birth weight were 39 weeks (range 25+5-41+4) and 3305 grams (SD 468). Six of 106 (6%) neonates were born preterm, without significant differences between asymptomatic and symptomatic mothers (P=0.67). No confirmed cases of in utero infection were detected. All infants had normal cerebral ultrasound and clinical evaluation at birth and during follow-up, until a median age of 7 months (range 5-12). All mothers and 96/106 (90.5%) neonates had detectable SARS-CoV-2 IgG at birth. Transplacental transfer ratio was higher following second trimester maternal infections (mean 0.940.46 versus 1.070.64 versus 0.750.44, P=0.039), but was not significantly different between asymptomatic and symptomatic women (P=0.20). IgG level in infants progressively decreased after birth: at 3 months 53% (51/96) and at four months 68% (63/96) had lost maternal antibodies respectively. The durability of maternal antibodies was positively correlated to the IgG level at birth (r=0.66; P<0.00001). CONCLUSIONS: Maternal SARS-CoV-2 infection was not associated with increased neonatal or long-term morbidity. No cases of confirmed in utero infection were detected. Efficient transplacental IgG transfer was found following second trimester maternal infections.

A coupled ocean-atmosphere system for short term forecasting in the southern european seas

This coupled model combines two state-of-the-art numerical models, NEMO for the oceanic component and WRF for the atmospheric component and implements them at an appropriate resolution. The oceanic model has been implemented starting from the Mediterranean Forecasting System with a resolution of 1/24° and the domain was extended to exactly match the grid of a newly implemented atmospheric model for the same area. The uncoupled ocean model has been validated against SST observed data, both in the simulation of an extreme event and in the short-term forecast of two seasonal periods. A new setup of the model was successfully tested in which the downward radiative fluxes were prescribed from atmospheric forecasts. Various physical schemes, domain, boundary, and initial conditions were tested with the atmospheric model to obtain the best representation of medicane Ianos. The heat fluxes calculated by the uncoupled models were compared to determine which setup gave the best energy balance between the components of the coupled model. The coupling strategy used is the traditional one, where the ocean is driven by the surface stress, heat fluxes, and radiative fluxes computed in the atmospheric component, which in turn receives the SST and surface currents. As expected, the overall skills of the coupled model are slightly degraded compared to the uncoupled models, even though the positioning and timing of the cyclone at the time of the landfall is enhanced. The mean heat fluxes do not change compared to the uncoupled model, whereas the pattern of the shortwave radiation and latent heat is changed. Moreover, the two energy fluxes are larger in absolute values than those calculated with the MFS formulas. The fact that they have opposite signs give raise to a compensation error that limits the overall degradation of the coupled simulation.

Longitudinal Analysis Of Hippocampal T2 Relaxometry In Fmtle.

To investigate the degree of T2 relaxometry changes over time in groups of patients with familial mesial temporal lobe epilepsy (FMTLE) and asymptomatic relatives. We conducted both cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of T2 relaxometry with Aftervoxel, an in-house software for medical image visualization. The cross-sectional study included 35 subjects (26 with FMTLE and 9 asymptomatic relatives) and 40 controls; the longitudinal study was composed of 30 subjects (21 with FMTLE and 9 asymptomatic relatives; the mean time interval of MRIs was 4.4 ± 1.5 years) and 16 controls. To increase the size of our groups of patients and relatives, we combined data acquired in 2 scanners (2T and 3T) and obtained z-scores using their respective controls. General linear model on SPSS21® was used for statistical analysis. In the cross-sectional analysis, elevated T2 relaxometry was identified for subjects with seizures and intermediate values for asymptomatic relatives compared to controls. Subjects with MRI signs of hippocampal sclerosis presented elevated T2 relaxometry in the ipsilateral hippocampus, while patients and asymptomatic relatives with normal MRI presented elevated T2 values in the right hippocampus. The longitudinal analysis revealed a significant increase in T2 relaxometry for the ipsilateral hippocampus exclusively in patients with seizures. The longitudinal increase of T2 signal in patients with seizures suggests the existence of an interaction between ongoing seizures and the underlying pathology, causing progressive damage to the hippocampus. The identification of elevated T2 relaxometry in asymptomatic relatives and in patients with normal MRI suggests that genetic factors may be involved in the development of some mild hippocampal abnormalities in FMTLE.

What Is The Best Indication For Single-incision Ophira Mini Sling? Insights From A 2-year Follow-up International Multicentric Study.

The Ophira Mini Sling System involves anchoring a midurethral, low-tension tape to the obturator internus muscles bilaterally at the level of the tendinous arc. Success rates in different subsets of patients are still to be defined. This work aims to identify which factors influence the 2-year outcomes of this treatment. Analysis was based on data from a multicenter study. Endpoints for analysis included objective measurements: 1-h pad-weight (PWT), and cough stress test (CST), and questionnaires: International Consultation on Incontinence Questionnaire-Short Form (ICIQ-SF) and Urinary Distress Inventory (UDI)-6. A logistic regression analysis evaluated possible risk factors for failure. In all, 124 female patients with stress urinary incontinence (SUI) underwent treatment with the Ophira procedure. All patients completed 1 year of follow-up, and 95 complied with the 2-year evaluation. Longitudinal analysis showed no significant differences between results at 1 and 2 years. The 2-year overall objective results were 81 (85.3%) patients dry, six (6.3%) improved, and eight (8.4%) incontinent. A multivariate analysis revealed that previous anti-incontinence surgery was the only factor that significantly influenced surgical outcomes. Two years after treatment, women with previous failed surgeries had an odds ratio (OR) for treatment failure (based on PWT) of 4.0 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-15.57). The Ophira procedure is an effective option for SUI treatment, with durable good results. Previous surgeries were identified as the only significant risk factor, though previously operated patients showed an acceptable success rate.

Measurement Of Longitudinal Spin Asymmetries For Weak Boson Production In Polarized Proton-proton Collisions At Rhic.

We report measurements of single- and double-spin asymmetries for W^{±} and Z/γ^{*} boson production in longitudinally polarized p+p collisions at sqrt[s]=510  GeV by the STAR experiment at RHIC. The asymmetries for W^{±} were measured as a function of the decay lepton pseudorapidity, which provides a theoretically clean probe of the proton's polarized quark distributions at the scale of the W mass. The results are compared to theoretical predictions, constrained by polarized deep inelastic scattering measurements, and show a preference for a sizable, positive up antiquark polarization in the range 0.05

Intraductal Carcinoma Of The Prostate: Interobserver Reproducibility Survey Of 39 Urologic Pathologists.

The diagnosis of intraductal carcinoma (IDC) of the prostate remains subjective because 3 sets of diagnostic criteria are in use. An internet survey was compiled from 38 photomicrographs showing duct proliferations: 14 signed out as high-grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia (HGPIN), 17 IDC, and 7 invasive cribriform/ductal carcinoma. Each image was assessed for the presence of 9 histologic criteria ascribed to IDC. Thirty-nine respondents were asked to rate images as (1) benign/reactive, (2) HGPIN, (3) borderline between HGPIN and IDC, (4) IDC, or (5) invasive cribriform/ductal carcinoma. Intraclass correlation coefficient was 0.68. There was 70% overall agreement with HGPIN, 43% with IDC, and 73% with invasive carcinoma (P < .001, χ(2)). Respondents considered 19 (50%) of 38 cases as IDC candidates, of which 5 (26%) had a two-thirds consensus for IDC; two-thirds consensus for either borderline or IDC was reached in 9 (47%). Two-thirds consensus other than IDC was reached in the remaining 19 of 38 cases, with 15 supporting HGPIN and 4 supporting invasive carcinoma. Findings that differed across diagnostic categories were lumen-spanning neoplastic cells (P < .001), 2× benign duct diameters (P < .001), duct space contours (round, irregular, and branched) (P < .001), papillary growth (P = .048), dense cribriform or solid growth (both P = .023), and comedonecrosis (P = .015). When the 19 of 38 images that attained consensus for HGPIN or invasive carcinoma were removed from consideration, lack of IDC consensus was most often attributable to only loose cribriform growth (5/19), central nuclear maturation (5/19), or comedonecrosis (3/19). Of the 9 histologic criteria, only 1 retained significant correlation with a consensus diagnosis of IDC: the presence of solid areas (P = .038). One case that attained IDC consensus had less than 2× duct enlargement yet still had severe nuclear atypia and nucleomegaly. Six fold nuclear enlargement was not significant (P = .083), although no image had both 6× nuclei and papillary or loose cribriform growth: a combination postulated as sufficient criteria for IDC. Finally, 20.5% of respondents agreed that an isolated diagnosis of IDC on needle biopsy warrants definitive therapy, 20.5% disagreed, and 59.0% considered the decision to depend upon clinicopathologic variables. Although IDC diagnosis remains challenging, we propose these criteria: a lumen-spanning proliferation of neoplastic cells in preexisting ducts with a dense cribriform or partial solid growth pattern. Solid growth, in any part of the duct space, emerges as the most reproducible finding to rule in a diagnosis of IDC. Comedonecrosis is a rarer finding, but in most cases, it should rule in IDC. Duct space enlargement to greater than 2× the diameter of the largest, adjacent benign spaces is usually present in IDC, although there may be rare exceptions.

Censored Linear Regression Models For Irregularly Observed Longitudinal Data Using The Multivariate-t Distribution.

In acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) studies it is quite common to observe viral load measurements collected irregularly over time. Moreover, these measurements can be subjected to some upper and/or lower detection limits depending on the quantification assays. A complication arises when these continuous repeated measures have a heavy-tailed behavior. For such data structures, we propose a robust structure for a censored linear model based on the multivariate Student's t-distribution. To compensate for the autocorrelation existing among irregularly observed measures, a damped exponential correlation structure is employed. An efficient expectation maximization type algorithm is developed for computing the maximum likelihood estimates, obtaining as a by-product the standard errors of the fixed effects and the log-likelihood function. The proposed algorithm uses closed-form expressions at the E-step that rely on formulas for the mean and variance of a truncated multivariate Student's t-distribution. The methodology is illustrated through an application to an Human Immunodeficiency Virus-AIDS (HIV-AIDS) study and several simulation studies.

[temporomandibular Disorders In Fibromyalgia Syndrome: A Short-communication.]

Fibromyalgia syndrome (FMS) is a chronic painful syndrome and the coexistence of a painful condition caused by Temporomandibular Disorders (TMD) and FMS has been frequently raised for several studies, however, more likely hypothesis is that a set of FMS characteristics may lead to the onset of TMD symptoms and they are not merely coexisting conditions. Therefore, our aim is presenting a review of literature about the relation between fibromyalgia and the signs and symptoms of temporomandibular disorders. For this purpose, a bibliographic search was performed of the period of 1990-2013, in the Medline, Pubmed, Lilacs and Scielo databases, using the keywords fibromyalgia, temporomandibular disorders and facial pain. Here we present a set of findings in the literature showing that fibromyalgia can lead to TMD symptoms. These studies demonstrated greater involvement of the stomatognathic system in FMS and myogenic disorders of masticatory system are the most commonly found in those patients. FMS appears to have a series of characteristics that constitute predisposing and triggering factors for TMD.

Effect Of Sodium Hypochlorite And Peracetic Acid On The Surface Roughness Of Acrylic Resin Polymerized By Heated Water For Short And Long Cycles.

To evaluate the surface roughness of acrylic resin submitted to chemical disinfection via 1% sodium hypochlorite (NaClO) or 1% peracetic acid (C2H4O3). The disc-shaped resin specimens (30 mm diameter ×4 mm height) were polymerized by heated water using two cycles (short cycle: 1 h at 74°C and 30 min at 100°C; conventional long cycle: 9 h at 74°C). The release of substances by these specimens in water solution was also quantified. Specimens were fabricated, divided into four groups (n = 10) depending on the polymerization time and disinfectant. After polishing, the specimens were stored in distilled deionized water. Specimens were immersed in 1% NaClO or 1% C2H4O3 for 30 min, and then were immersed in distilled deionized water for 20 min. The release of C2H4O3 and NaClO was measured via visual colorimetric analysis. Roughness was measured before and after disinfection. Roughness data were subjected to two-way ANOVA and Tukey's test. There was no interaction between polymerization time and disinfectant in influencing the average surface roughness (Ra, P = 0.957). Considering these factors independently, there were significant differences between short and conventional long cycles (P = 0.012), but no significant difference between the disinfectants hypochlorite and C2H4O3 (P = 0.366). Visual colorimetric analysis did not detect release of substances. It was concluded that there was the difference in surface roughness between short and conventional long cycles, and disinfection at acrylic resins polymerized by heated water using a short cycle modified the properties of roughness.

Short-term Physiological Changes In Roots And Leaves Of Sugarcane Varieties Exposed To H2o2 In Root Medium.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the differential sensitivity of sugarcane genotypes to H2O2 in root medium. As a hypothesis, the drought tolerant genotype would be able to minimize the oxidative damage and maintain the water transport from roots to shoots, reducing the negative effects on photosynthesis. The sugarcane genotypes IACSP94-2094 (drought tolerant) and IACSP94-2101 (drought sensitive) were grown in a growth chamber and exposed to three levels of H2O2 in nutrient solution: control; 3mmolL(-1) and 80mmolL(-1). Leaf gas exchange, photochemical activity, root hydraulic conductance (Lr) and antioxidant metabolism in both roots and leaves were evaluated after 15min of treatment with H2O2. Although, root hydraulic conductance, stomatal aperture, apparent electron transport rate and instantaneous carboxylation efficiency have been reduced by H2O2 in both genotypes, IACSP94-2094 presented higher values of those variables as compared to IACSP94-2101. There was a significant genotypic variation in relation to the physiological responses of sugarcane to increasing H2O2 in root tissues, being root changes associated with modifications in plant shoots. IACSP94-2094 presented a root antioxidant system more effective against H2O2 in root medium, regardless H2O2 concentration. Under low H2O2 concentration, water transport and leaf gas exchange of IACSP94-2094 were less affected as compared to IACSP94-2101. Under high H2O2 concentration, the lower sensitivity of IACSP94-2094 was associated with increases in superoxide dismutase activity in roots and leaves and increases in catalase activity in roots. In conclusion, we propose a general model of sugarcane reaction to H2O2, linking root and shoot physiological responses.

A Longitudinal Evaluation Of Anti-fviii Antibodies Demonstrated Igg4 Subclass Is Mainly Correlated With High-titre Inhibitor In Haemophilia A Patients.

The development of inhibitory antibodies against factor VIII (FVIII) (inhibitor) is the major complication in haemophilia A patients. The FVIII-binding antibodies development comprises a polyclonal immunoglobulin (Ig) G response. Recent studies showed strong correlation between the presence of neutralizing anti-FVIII antibodies (inhibitors) and IgG4 subclass. The aim of this study was to evaluate anti-FVIII IgG subclasses in haemophilia A patients with inhibitor both in a cross-sectional and in a longitudinal analysis. Inhibitors were determined by Nijmegen-Bethesda assay. Anti-FVIII IgG subclasses were performed by ELISA, and samples from 20 healthy individuals were used to validate the test. We studied 25 haemophilia A patients with inhibitor, previously treated exclusively with plasma-derived FVIII concentrates or bypassing agents. The IgG subclasses distributions were evaluated in two groups of patients classified according to inhibitor response. IgG1 and IgG4 antibodies were most prominent in haemophilia A patients with inhibitors when compared with IgG2 and IgG3. This study reports for the first time the behaviour of FVIII-binding IgG1 and IgG4 subclasses in a longitudinal analysis, in a clinical setting, of high-response inhibitor haemophilia A patients, showing the correlation of IgG4 and the inhibitor titres. In spite of being considered a non-pathologic antibody subclass with anti-inflammatory properties in other situations, IgG4 is correlated with the presence of high-titre inhibitor in the haemophilia setting. The comprehension of the IgG4 role in immune response may be crucial to establish the process for designing specific tolerance to FVIII.