Statistical design and analysis of pharmacogenetic trials

Pharmacogenetic trials investigate the effect of genotype on treatment response. When there are two or more treatment groups and two or more genetic groups, investigation of gene-treatment interactions is of key interest. However, calculation of the power to detect such interactions is complicated because this depends not only on the treatment effect size within each genetic group, but also on the number of genetic groups, the size of each genetic group, and the type of genetic effect that is both present and tested for. The scale chosen to measure the magnitude of an interaction can also be problematic, especially for the binary case. Elston et al. proposed a test for detecting the presence of gene-treatment interactions for binary responses, and gave appropriate power calculations. This paper shows how the same approach can also be used for normally distributed responses. We also propose a method for analysing and performing sample size calculations based on a generalized linear model (GLM) approach. The power of the Elston et al. and GLM approaches are compared for the binary and normal case using several illustrative examples. While more sensitive to errors in model specification than the Elston et al. approach, the GLM approach is much more flexible and in many cases more powerful. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Bayesian design and conduct of phase II single-arm clinical trials with binary outcomes: a tutorial

The aim of phase II single-arm clinical trials of a new drug is to determine whether it has sufficient promising activity to warrant its further development. For the last several years Bayesian statistical methods have been proposed and used. Bayesian approaches are ideal for earlier phase trials as they take into account information that accrues during a trial. Predictive probabilities are then updated and so become more accurate as the trial progresses. Suitable priors can act as pseudo samples, which make small sample clinical trials more informative. Thus patients have better chances to receive better treatments. The goal of this paper is to provide a tutorial for statisticians who use Bayesian methods for the first time or investigators who have some statistical background. In addition, real data from three clinical trials are presented as examples to illustrate how to conduct a Bayesian approach for phase II single-arm clinical trials with binary outcomes.

Heat shock protein 27 is the major differentially phosphorylated protein involved in renal epithelial cellular stress response and controls focal adhesion organization and apoptosis

We used two-dimensional difference gel electrophoresis to determine early changes in the stress-response pathways that precede focal adhesion disorganization linked to the onset of apoptosis of renal epithelial cells. Treatment of LLC-PK1 cells with the model nephrotoxicant 1,2-(dichlorovinyl)-L-cysteine (DCVC) resulted in a >1.5-fold up- and down-regulation of 14 and 9 proteins, respectively, preceding the onset of apoptosis. Proteins included those involved in metabolism, i.e. aconitase and pyruvate dehydrogenase, and those related to stress responses and cytoskeletal reorganization, i.e. cofilin, Hsp27, and alpha-b-crystallin. The most prominent changes were found for Hsp27, which was related to a pI shift in association with an altered phosphorylation status of serine residue 82. Although both p38 and JNK were activated by DCVC, only inhibition of p38 with SB203580 reduced Hsp27 phosphorylation, which was associated with accelerated reorganization of focal adhesions, cell detachment, and apoptosis. In contrast, inhibition of JNK with SP600125 maintained cell adhesion as well as protection against apoptosis. Active JNK co-localized at focal adhesions after DCVC treatment in a FAK-dependent manner. Inhibition of active JNK localization at focal adhesions did not prevent DCVC-induced phosphorylation of Hsp27. Overexpression of a phosphorylation-defective mutant Hsp27 acted as a dominant negative and accelerated the DCVC-induced changes in the focal adhesions as well as the onset of apoptosis. Our data fit a model whereby early p38 activation results in a rapid phosphorylation of Hsp27, a requirement for proper maintenance of cell adhesion, thus suppressing renal epithelial cell apoptosis.

Design and analysis of climate model experiments for the efficient estimation of anthropogenic signals

Presented herein is an experimental design that allows the effects of several radiative forcing factors on climate to be estimated as precisely as possible from a limited suite of atmosphere-only general circulation model (GCM) integrations. The forcings include the combined effect of observed changes in sea surface temperatures, sea ice extent, stratospheric (volcanic) aerosols, and solar output, plus the individual effects of several anthropogenic forcings. A single linear statistical model is used to estimate the forcing effects, each of which is represented by its global mean radiative forcing. The strong colinearity in time between the various anthropogenic forcings provides a technical problem that is overcome through the design of the experiment. This design uses every combination of anthropogenic forcing rather than having a few highly replicated ensembles, which is more commonly used in climate studies. Not only is this design highly efficient for a given number of integrations, but it also allows the estimation of (nonadditive) interactions between pairs of anthropogenic forcings. The simulated land surface air temperature changes since 1871 have been analyzed. The changes in natural and oceanic forcing, which itself contains some forcing from anthropogenic and natural influences, have the most influence. For the global mean, increasing greenhouse gases and the indirect aerosol effect had the largest anthropogenic effects. It was also found that an interaction between these two anthropogenic effects in the atmosphere-only GCM exists. This interaction is similar in magnitude to the individual effects of changing tropospheric and stratospheric ozone concentrations or to the direct (sulfate) aerosol effect. Various diagnostics are used to evaluate the fit of the statistical model. For the global mean, this shows that the land temperature response is proportional to the global mean radiative forcing, reinforcing the use of radiative forcing as a measure of climate change. The diagnostic tests also show that the linear model was suitable for analyses of land surface air temperature at each GCM grid point. Therefore, the linear model provides precise estimates of the space time signals for all forcing factors under consideration. For simulated 50-hPa temperatures, results show that tropospheric ozone increases have contributed to stratospheric cooling over the twentieth century almost as much as changes in well-mixed greenhouse gases.

Heat shock protein 27 is the major differentially phosphorylated protein involved in renal epithelial cellular stress response and controls focal adhesion organization and apoptosis

We used two-dimensional difference gel electrophoresis to determine early changes in the stress-response pathways that precede focal adhesion disorganization linked to the onset of apoptosis of renal epithelial cells. Treatment of LLC-PK1 cells with the model nephrotoxicant 1,2-(dichlorovinyl)-L-cysteine ( DCVC) resulted in a > 1.5-fold up- and down-regulation of 14 and 9 proteins, respectively, preceding the onset of apoptosis. Proteins included those involved in metabolism, i.e. aconitase and pyruvate dehydrogenase, and those related to stress responses and cytoskeletal reorganization, i.e. cofilin, Hsp27, and alpha-b-crystallin. The most prominent changes were found for Hsp27, which was related to a pI shift in association with an altered phosphorylation status of serine residue 82. Although both p38 and JNK were activated by DCVC, only inhibition of p38 with SB203580 reduced Hsp27 phosphorylation, which was associated with accelerated reorganization of focal adhesions, cell detachment, and apoptosis. In contrast, inhibition of JNK with SP600125 maintained cell adhesion as well as protection against apoptosis. Active JNK co-localized at focal adhesions after DCVC treatment in a FAK-dependent manner. Inhibition of active JNK localization at focal adhesions did not prevent DCVC-induced phosphorylation of Hsp27. Overexpression of a phosphorylation-defective mutant Hsp27 acted as a dominant negative and accelerated the DCVC-induced changes in the focal adhesions as well as the onset of apoptosis. Our data fit a model whereby early p38 activation results in a rapid phosphorylation of Hsp27, a requirement for proper maintenance of cell adhesion, thus suppressing renal epithelial cell apoptosis.

Design and theoretical study of nickel catalysts for syndiotactic polyolefins

A nickel catalyst was modeled with ligand L-2, [ NH = CH-CH = CH-O](-), which should have potential use as a syndiotactic polyolefin catalyst, and the reaction mechanism was studied by theoretical calculations using the density functional method at the B3LYP/ LANL2MB level. The mechanism involves the formation of the intermediate [(NiLMe)-Me-2](+), in which the metal occuples a T-shaped geometry. - This intermediate has two possible structures with the methyl group trans either to the oxygen or to the nitrogen atom of L-2. The results show that both structures can lead to the desired product via similar reaction paths, A and B. Thus, the polymerization could be considered as taking place either with the alkyl group occupying the position trans to the Ni-O or trans to the Ni-N bond in the catalyst. The polymerization process thus favors the catalysis of syndiotactic polyolefins. The syndiotactic synthesis effects could also be enhanced by variations in the ligand substituents. From energy considerations, we can conclude that it is more favorable for the methyl group to occupy the trans-O position to form a complex than to occupy the trans-N position. From bond length considerations, it is also more favoured for ethene to occupy the trans-O position than to occupy the trans-N position.